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2024 Week 7 · Thu, Oct 17, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Denver BroncosWinner

33

New Orleans Saints

10

DEN -2.5 ✓O 37 ✓Dome

Denver Broncos 33–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 3:46, DEN +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NO ↑DEN ↓
Q1 · 3:46DEN 3 — NO 0NO ball · 1st & 10DEN 59%

(3:46) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler sacked at NO 43 for -7 yards (55-C.Barton). FUMBLES (55-C.Barton) [55-C.Barton], touched at DEN 48, RECOVERED by DEN-12-K.Alexander at DEN 45.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 3:46DEN +10% win prob(3:46) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler sacked at NO 43 for -7 yards (55-C.Barton). FUMBLES (55-C.Barton) [55-C.Barton], touched at DEN 48, RECOVERED by DEN-12-K.Alexander at DEN 45.
  2. Q2 · 0:21NO +7% win prob(:21) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
  3. Q2 · 11:32NO +5% win prob(11:32) 33-J.Williams right guard to DEN 38 for 20 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
  4. Q1 · 12:30NO +4% win prob(12:30) 18-S.Rattler pass deep left to 87-F.Moreau pushed ob at NO 40 for 32 yards (6-P.Locke).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 5:32DEN Field goal

    (5:32) 3-W.Lutz 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: DEN 3 — NO 0
  2. Q2 · 13:27DEN Field goal

    (13:27) 3-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: DEN 6 — NO 0
  3. Q2 · 7:33DEN Touchdown

    (7:33) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 13 — NO 0
  4. Q2 · 2:00NO Field goal

    (2:00) 19-B.Grupe 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

    Score after this play: DEN 13 — NO 3
  5. Q2 · 0:21DEN Field goal

    (:21) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: DEN 16 — NO 3
  6. Q3 · 10:27DEN Field goal

    (10:27) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: DEN 19 — NO 3
  7. Q3 · 5:58DEN Touchdown

    (5:58) 33-J.Williams right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 26 — NO 3
  8. Q4 · 4:19DEN Touchdown

    (4:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler sacked at DEN 48 for -14 yards (29-J.McMillian). FUMBLES (29-J.McMillian) [29-J.McMillian], RECOVERED by DEN-55-C.Barton at DEN 48. 55-C.Barton for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 33 — NO 3
  9. Q4 · 1:25NO Touchdown

    (1:25) (Shotgun) 3-J.Haener pass short middle to 11-C.Wilson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 33 — NO 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBroncosSaints
Offensive plays5965
Total yards391 (edge)272
Yards per play6.6 (edge)4.2
Expected points added / play0.12 (edge)-0.36
Success rate56% (edge)38%
Dropback rate56%74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.01 (edge)-0.48
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.30 (edge)-0.00
Third downs4/11 (edge)5/16
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)11 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps21 (edge)13
Sacks taken0 (edge)6
Turnovers1 (edge)3

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.36.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Spencer RattlerQB

25/35, 172 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-28.1 expected points added · -0.1% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

16/26, 164 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

1.2 expected points added · -8.0% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Javonte WilliamsRB

14 att, 88 yds, 2 TD

5.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Bo NixQB

10 att, 75 yds, 0 TD

3.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Cedrick WilsonWR

6/7 for 57 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Troy FranklinWR

5/6 for 50 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 0.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DENDEN 358242:30Punt
2NONO 85401:58Punt
3DENDEN 209525:04Field goal +3
4NONO 325181:49Fumble
5DENDEN 4510425:15Field goal +3
6NONO 30551:10Defensive touchdown
7DENDEN 149864:44Touchdown +7
8NONO 2112625:33Field goal +3
9DENDEN 2811381:41Field goal +3
10NONO 30460:16End of half
11NONO 30530:51Punt
12DENDEN 347463:45Field goal +3
13NONO 305-11:31Punt
14DENDEN 316693:00Touchdown +7
15NONO 1910474:57Punt
16DENDEN 214152:27Punt
17NONO 248162:55Punt
18DENDEN 15472:13Punt
19NODEN 48480:56Turnover on downs
20DENDEN 402121:15Fumble
21NODEN 476-12:04Defensive touchdown
22NONO 2113692:44Touchdown +7
23DENNO 38301:22End of game

8 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 86 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bo Nix16/261640001.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Javonte Williams14886.325.8
Bo Nix10757.503.0
Jaleel McLaughlin4358.801.2
Audric Estime5295.80-3.8
Jarrett Stidham2-2-1.00-3.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Troy Franklin5650024%0.7
Lucas Krull3441016%2.3
Javonte Williams3323012%1.7
Devaughn Vele1320012%0.1
Marvin Mims2318012%1.4
Lil'Jordan Humphrey2312012%-0.9
Adam Trautman030012%-3.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Cody Barton621.001
Justin Strnad531.000
Levi Wallace610.000
Ja'Quan McMillian601.000
Riley Moss420.000
P.J. Locke230.000
Brandon Jones410.000
Zach Allen120.500
Nik Bonitto121.000
J.L. Skinner110.000

New Orleans Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Spencer Rattler25/35172006-28.1
Jake Haener3/4381003.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kendre Miller6366.00-0.8
Spencer Rattler5346.803.5
Jamaal Williams3175.701.1
Alvin Kamara7101.40-2.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Cedrick Wilson6757118%4.9
Mason Tipton6945023%-0.8
Foster Moreau223805%2.1
Bub Means3537013%-1.8
Juwan Johnson3618015%-1.1
Alvin Kamara6714018%-5.5
Kendre Miller23108%-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordan Howden440.000
Alontae Taylor520.001
Paulson Adebo230.000
Demario Davis320.000
Tyrann Mathieu320.000
Anfernee Orji220.000
Marshon Lattimore400.000
Bryan Bresee210.000
Cameron Jordan120.000
Kool-Aid McKinstry210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Closing total
37
DEN moneyline
-148
NO moneyline
+124

Broncos closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 23.

Total closed 37; the game landed 43 — over by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
DEN 4 days · NO 4 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Dennis Allen