For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Denver Broncos 33 at New Orleans Saints 10. Final.
Broncos -2.5 ✓O 37 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 7
Denver Broncos 33, Saints 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 3:46, 1st and 10, on Spencer Rattler — 9.6 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:46 · 1st and 10
Spencer Rattler
Broncos
(3:46) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler sacked at NO 43 for -7 yards (55-C.Barton). FUMBLES (55-C.Barton) [55-C.Barton], touched at DEN 48, RECOVERED by DEN-12-K.Alexander at DEN 45.
Dome
Broncos closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 23.
Denver Broncos 33–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 3:46, Broncos +9.6% win probability on one snap.
9.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Javonte WilliamsBroncosQ2 11:32(11:32) 33-J.Williams right guard to DEN 38 for 20 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
4.7pts
Wil LutzBroncosQ2 0:21(:21) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
6.7pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Broncos won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Saints at 4 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — +0.12 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.36 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Broncos won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — 1 giveaway, against Saints at 3 giveaways.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Broncos169 of 181 plays carry both curves
(3:46) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler sacked at NO 43 for -7 yards (55-C.Barton). FUMBLES (55-C.Barton) [55-C.Barton], touched at DEN 48, RECOVERED by DEN-12-K.Alexander at DEN 45.
Swing −9.6 for SaintsExpected points −5.42 for SaintsThe model had Saints 14 points higher than the market did.play 28
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 3:46DEN +10% win prob(3:46) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler sacked at NO 43 for -7 yards (55-C.Barton). FUMBLES (55-C.Barton) [55-C.Barton], touched at DEN 48, RECOVERED by DEN-12-K.Alexander at DEN 45.
2nd · 0:21NO +7% win prob(:21) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
2nd · 11:32NO +5% win prob(11:32) 33-J.Williams right guard to DEN 38 for 20 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
1st · 12:30NO +4% win prob(12:30) 18-S.Rattler pass deep left to 87-F.Moreau pushed ob at NO 40 for 32 yards (6-P.Locke).
1st · 8:00NO +4% win prob(8:00) 33-J.Williams right guard to NO 35 for 10 yards (29-P.Adebo; 58-A.Orji).
2nd · 9:38NO +4% win prob(9:38) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 16-T.Franklin pushed ob at NO 19 for 30 yards (14-K.McKinstry).
2nd · 3:40
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Wil Lutz's 46-yard field goal with 5:32 left in the 1st put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:32Wil Lutz·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.FraboniLead never changed again+33–0
2nd13:27Wil Lutz·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Fraboni+36–0
Broncos ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Broncos: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.36Saints: −0.36 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.01Broncos: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.48Saints: −0.48 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.30Broncos: +0.30 expected points added per play
−0.00Saints: −0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 59 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Saints’s 65 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 4, Saints 2.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.36.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NO's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 7 — 3.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 4.9% in week 6.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
DEN's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 6 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 33.3 points.
DEN's blitz rate sent turned over: 65.8% in week 6 against 25.0% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.4 points.
DEN's early-down pass rate turned over: 70.0% in week 6 against 52.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +1.4 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Saints0.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.0 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.70× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteNO's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 12.0 points below their season mean of 12.0% and 1.7 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive
77Quinn MeinerzG · Every snap100%65 snaps
54Alex ForsythC · Every snap100%65 snaps
69Mike McGlincheyT · Full-time97%63 snaps
74Ben PowersG · Full-time97%63 snaps
72Garett BollesT · Full-time97%63 snaps
10Bo NixQB · Full-time97%63 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Full-time86%56 snaps
33Javonte WilliamsRB · Heavy rotation63%41 snaps
82Adam TrautmanTE · Heavy rotation62%40 snaps
16Troy FranklinWR · Heavy rotation51%33 snaps
84Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Heavy rotation51%33 snaps
85Lucas KrullTE · Rotational45%29 snaps
17Devaughn VeleWR · Rotational43%28 snaps
45Nate AdkinsTE · Rotational29%19 snaps
38Jaleel McLaughlinRB · Situational22%14 snaps
19Marvin Mims Jr.WR · Situational18%12 snaps
20Michael BurtonFB · Situational17%11 snaps
23Audric EstiméRB · Situational9%6 snaps
79Matt PeartT · Situational8%5 snaps
76Calvin ThrockmortonG · Situational3%2 snaps
73Frank CrumT · Situational3%2 snaps
8Jarrett StidhamQB · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Pat Surtain IICBKris Abrams-DraineCBEyioma UwazurikeDEDondrea TillmanOLBZach WilsonQBAlex PalczewskiTGreg DulcichTE
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive
67Landon YoungT · Every snap100%70 snaps
70Trevor PenningT · Every snap100%70 snaps
75Taliese FuagaT · Every snap100%70 snaps
61Connor McGovernC · Every snap100%70 snaps
18Spencer RattlerQB · Full-time93%65 snaps
16Bub MeansWR · Full-time89%62 snaps
84Mason TiptonWR · Full-time83%58 snaps
83Juwan JohnsonTE · Heavy rotation73%51 snaps
11Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR · Heavy rotation69%48 snaps
60Kyle HergelG · Heavy rotation64%45 snaps
87Foster MoreauTE · Heavy rotation60%42 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Heavy rotation57%40 snaps
64Nick SaldiveriG · Rotational36%25 snaps
25Kendre MillerRB · Rotational29%20 snaps
46Adam PrenticeFB · Situational19%13 snaps
21Jamaal WilliamsRB · Situational17%12 snaps
3Jake HaenerQB · Situational7%5 snaps
85Dallin HolkerTE · Situational4%3 snaps
13Equanimeous St. BrownWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Cesar RuizCKhalen SaundersDTPete WernerILBDerek CarrQBJordan MimsRBTaysom HillTEChris OlaveWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Rattler sacked−14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(3:46) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler sacked at NO 43 for -7 yards (55-C.Barton). FUMBLES (55-C.Barton) [55-C.Barton], touched at DEN 48, RECOVERED by DEN-12-K.Alexander at DEN 45.
Q1 3:46 · Saints · 1st & 10 at 50 · gained nothing · -5.42 EP · −13.7% win probability
167 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 176. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 86 yards from the DEN 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
45%
Yards
660
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.4376%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.0757%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.6971%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.0127%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.4822%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.0656%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.4720%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Saints 41
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 8 to the Saints 48
Broncos3Saints0
Field goal9 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Saints 28
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Saints 32 to midfield
The period ended8 plays, from the Broncos 45 to the Saints 29
2nd quarter55 plays
Broncos6Saints0
Field goal5 plays, from the Saints 17 to the Saints 8
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 45
Broncos12Saints0
Broncos13Saints0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 14 to the Saints 8
Broncos13Saints3
Field goal15 plays, from the Saints 21 to the Broncos 17
Broncos16Saints3
Field goal12 plays, from the Broncos 28 to the Saints 34
The period ended7 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 36
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 33
Broncos19Saints3
Field goal7 plays, from the Broncos 34 to the Saints 20
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 33
Broncos25Saints3
Broncos26Saints3
Touchdown6 plays, from the Broncos 31 to the Saints 5
Punt13 plays, from the Saints 19 to the Broncos 49
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter51 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Broncos 21 to the Broncos 26
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 24 to midfield
Punt5 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Broncos 48 to the Broncos 43
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Broncos 40 to the Saints 47
Broncos32Saints3
Touchdown6 plays, from the Broncos 47 to the Broncos 34
Broncos33Saints3
Broncos33Saints9
Broncos33Saints10
Touchdown16 plays, from the Saints 21 to the Broncos 12
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
