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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:35 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 7 · Thu, Oct 17, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 7
It turned at Q1 3:46, 1st and 10, on Spencer Rattler — 9.6 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Denver Broncos 33–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 3:46, Broncos +9.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:46 · 1st and 10
Spencer Rattler
Broncos
(3:46) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler sacked at NO 43 for -7 yards (55-C.Barton). FUMBLES (55-C.Barton) [55-C.Barton], touched at DEN 48, RECOVERED by DEN-12-K.Alexander at DEN 45.
9.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Broncos won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Saints at 4 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — +0.12 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.36 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Broncos won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — 1 giveaway, against Saints at 3 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(3:46) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler sacked at NO 43 for -7 yards (55-C.Barton). FUMBLES (55-C.Barton) [55-C.Barton], touched at DEN 48, RECOVERED by DEN-12-K.Alexander at DEN 45.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Wil Lutz's 46-yard field goal with 5:32 left in the 1st put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Wil Lutz46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.FraboniLead never changed again+33–09 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categorySaints
Broncos ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 59 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Saints’s 65 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 4, Saints 2.
Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.36.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 7 — 3.4 points clear of the next team along.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
DEN's play-action rate, 39.4%, is past their previous high of 28.2% in week 3 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
DEN's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 6 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 33.3 points. · −0.9σ from their own normal
DEN's blitz rate sent turned over: 65.8% in week 6 against 25.0% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.4 points. · −0.6σ from their own normal
DEN's early-down pass rate turned over: 70.0% in week 6 against 52.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · −0.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos-0.1 ptsright on their number · −0.4 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 59 snaps
Saints0.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their -5.1 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.81× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 91%
Tendencies room →Broncos52.1%right on their number · −3.7 vs their 55.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 48 early downs
Saints71.1%leaned — passed early · +15.1 vs their 56.0%, and they swing ±13.9 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15% to 61%
Tendencies room →Broncos39.4%leaned — faked the run · +12.4 vs their 27.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+1.16× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Saints10.4%inside their normal wobble · −12.6 vs their 23.0%, and they swing ±14.7 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -56% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Broncos0.0%inside their normal wobble · −28.8 vs their 28.8%, and they swing ±33.3 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Saints57.1%inside their normal wobble · +22.0 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±28.3 week to week (+0.78× that swing) · 7 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 73%
Tendencies room →Broncos25.0%inside their normal wobble · −8.9 vs their 33.9%, and they swing ±15.4 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Saints33.3%leaned — sent pressure · +9.2 vs their 24.1%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+1.08× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 39%
Tendencies room →Broncos20.8%right on their number · +1.4 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Saints0.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −12.0 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.70× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NO's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 12.0 points below their season mean of 12.0% and 1.7 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
25/35, 172 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-28.1 expected points added · -0.1% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
Bo NixQB
16/26, 164 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
1.2 expected points added · -8.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Javonte Williams banked 13.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 26.1 | +13.5 | 63% | 64% | 12% | 0% | 14 car, 88 yd, 2 TD · 3/3, 23 yd |
| Cedrick WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 17.7 | +8.4 | 69% | 67% | 18% | 16% | 6/7, 57 yd, 1 TD |
| Bo NixQB · Starter QB | 14.1 | −4.4 | 97% | — | 0% | — | 16/26, 164 yd · 10 car, 75 yd |
| Mason TiptonWR · Featured Receiver | 10.5 | −3.7 | 83% | 90% | 23% | 45% | 6/9, 45 yd |
| Troy FranklinWR · Featured Receiver | 10.0 | +0.4 | 51% | 67% | 24% | 30% | 5/6, 50 yd |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Committee Back | 8.4 | −3.7 | 57% | 63% | 18% | 0% | 7 car, 10 yd · 6/7, 14 yd |
| Lucas KrullTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | 0.0 | 45% | 61% | 16% | 30% | 3/4, 41 yd |
| Bub MeansWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | 0.0 | 89% | 92% | 13% | 22% | 3/5, 37 yd |
| Spencer RattlerQB · Starter QB | 6.3 | −4.9 | 93% | — | 0% | — | 25/35, 172 yd · 5 car, 34 yd |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | +3.0 | 60% | 60% | 5% | 8% | 2/2, 38 yd |
| Kendre MillerRB | 5.7 | −1.3 | 29% | 27% | 8% | 0% | 6 car, 36 yd · 2/3, 1 yd |
| Jake HaenerQB | 5.5 | +4.0 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | −3.7 | 73% | 71% | 15% | 11% | 3/6, 18 yd |
| Marvin MimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | −0.3 | 18% | 30% | 12% | 8% | 2/3, 18 yd |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 3.5 | +1.3 | 22% | 21% | 0% | — | 4 car, 35 yd |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −3.0 | 51% | 39% | 12% | 16% | 2/3, 12 yd |
| Devaughn VeleWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −2.0 | 43% | 58% | 12% | 22% | 1/3, 20 yd |
| Jamaal WilliamsRB | 1.7 | +0.2 | 17% | 13% | 0% | — | 3 car, 17 yd |
| Audric EstimeRB | 0.9 | −1.5 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Michael BurtonRB | 0.0 | — | 17% | 9% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.6 | 62% | 48% | 12% | 0% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Nate AdkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 29% | 18% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Adam PrenticeRB | 0.0 | — | 19% | 10% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jermaine JacksonWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jarrett StidhamQB | -0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:46) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler sacked at NO 43 for -7 yards (55-C.Barton). FUMBLES (55-C.Barton) [55-C.Barton], touched at DEN 48, RECOVERED by DEN-12-K.Alexander at DEN 45.
Q1 3:46 · Saints · 1st & 10 at 50 · gained nothing · -5.42 EP · −13.7% win probability
167 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 181 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 176. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 86 yards from the DEN 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Broncos3
Saints0How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Broncos6Saints0Broncos12Saints0Broncos13Saints0Broncos13Saints3Broncos16Saints3Broncos19Saints3Broncos25Saints3Broncos26Saints3Broncos32Saints3Broncos33Saints3Broncos33Saints9Broncos33Saints10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Saints, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 16/26 | 164 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 14 | 88 | 6.3 | 2 | +5.8 |
| Bo Nix | 10 | 75 | 7.5 | 0 | +3.0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Franklin | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 | 24% | +0.7 |
| Lucas Krull | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 16% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Barton | 6 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Strnad | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Wallace |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 25/35 | 172 | 0 | 0 | 6 | −28.1 |
| Jake Haener | 3/4 | 38 | 1 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_07_DEN_NO
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Broncos closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 23.
Total closed 37; the game landed 43 — over by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 35 |
| 8.8 |
| 0 |
| +1.2 |
| Audric Estime | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 | −3.8 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −3.4 |
| +2.3 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 12% | +1.7 |
| Devaughn Vele | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 12% | +0.1 |
| Marvin Mims | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 12% | +1.4 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 12% | −0.9 |
| Adam Trautman | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12% | −3.9 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Ja'Quan McMillian | 6 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley Moss | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| P.J. Locke | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jones | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Allen | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Nik Bonitto | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.L. Skinner | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| +3.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendre Miller | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Spencer Rattler | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 | +3.5 |
| Jamaal Williams | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedrick Wilson | 6 | 7 | 57 | 1 | 18% | +4.9 |
| Mason Tipton | 6 | 9 | 45 | 0 | 23% | −0.8 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 | 5% | +2.1 |
| Bub Means | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 13% | −1.8 |
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 15% | −1.1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 18% | −5.5 |
| Kendre Miller | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8% | −1.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howden | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alontae Taylor | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Paulson Adebo | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demario Davis | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anfernee Orji | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marshon Lattimore | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Bresee | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Jordan | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
