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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:37 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 20, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 7
It turned at Q4 6:00, 2nd and 10, on David Montgomery — 41.3 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:00 · 2nd and 10
David Montgomery
Vikings
(6:00) 5-D.Montgomery left tackle to DET 35 for 5 yards (44-J.Metellus; 24-C.Bynum). FUMBLES (44-J.Metellus), RECOVERED by MIN-0-I.Pace at DET 36. 0-I.Pace for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-60-G.Glasgow, Offensive Holding, declined.
Detroit Lions 31–29 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 6:00, Vikings +41.3% win probability on one snap.
41.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Lions at -0.31 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — +0.51 expected points per dropback, against Vikings at +0.06 expected points per dropback.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Lions won this one — 1 touchdown on 4 trips, against Vikings at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Lions won this one — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
(6:00) 5-D.Montgomery left tackle to DET 35 for 5 yards (44-J.Metellus; 24-C.Bynum). FUMBLES (44-J.Metellus), RECOVERED by MIN-0-I.Pace at DET 36. 0-I.Pace for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-60-G.Glasgow, Offensive
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jake Bates's 44-yard field goal with 0:19 left in the 4th put Detroit Lions ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Jake Bates44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.HattenLead never changed again+331–2911 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Lionscategory by categoryVikings
Lions ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 54 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Vikings’s 53 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Lions 4, Vikings 2.
Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs 0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Lions-9.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 54 snaps
Vikings2.3 ptsright on their number · −1.8 vs their 4.1 pts, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 52 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 75%
Tendencies room →Lions50.0%right on their number · +1.1 vs their 48.9%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 44 early downs
Vikings61.9%inside their normal wobble · +7.4 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.95× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 65%
Tendencies room →Lions27.6%inside their normal wobble · −8.9 vs their 36.5%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Vikings18.9%leaned — dropped back clean · −8.0 vs their 26.9%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37% to 164%
Fourth Down room →Lions—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 63.3%.
Vikings—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 77%
Tendencies room →Lions37.8%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 35.9%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Vikings58.6%leaned — sent pressure · +13.8 vs their 44.8%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (+1.12× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 32%
Tendencies room →Lions13.5%right on their number · −2.0 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Vikings24.1%leaned — got home · +7.8 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.28× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
MIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 24.1%, 7.8 points above their season mean of 16.3% and 1.3 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · DET
22/25, 280 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
14.9 expected points added · +15.5% completion over expected
Passing · MIN
22/27, 259 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-0.8 expected points added · +13.5% completion over expected
Receiving · DET
8/8 for 112 yds, 1 TD
32% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added
Receiving · MIN
7/8 for 81 yds, 1 TD
31% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Jahmyr Gibbs banked 17.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr GibbsRB · Committee Back | 32.0 | +17.2 | 58% | 62% | 16% | 0% | 15 car, 116 yd, 2 TD · 4/4, 44 yd |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 25.2 | +10.0 | 95% | 93% | 32% | 49% | 8/8, 112 yd, 1 TD |
| Justin JeffersonWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.4 | +7.0 | 97% | 86% | 31% | 34% | 1 car, 3 yd · 7/8, 81 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron JonesRB · Bell Cow Back | 20.6 | +9.2 | 72% | 62% | 12% | 0% | 14 car, 93 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 23 yd |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 18.8 | +9.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/25, 280 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, -4 yd |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 16.3 | +2.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/27, 259 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 39 yd |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.9 | +5.6 | 28% | 34% | 16% | 34% | 3/4, 39 yd, 1 TD |
| Jalen NailorWR · Featured Receiver | 11.6 | +2.9 | 73% | 70% | 19% | 28% | 4/5, 76 yd |
| Jordan AddisonWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.6 | +0.8 | 85% | 78% | 15% | 34% | 3/4, 66 yd |
| David MontgomeryRB · Committee Back | 8.0 | −3.0 | 39% | 38% | 16% | 3% | 9 car, 31 yd · 3/4, 39 yd |
| Johnny MundtTE · Featured Receiver | 4.8 | −2.5 | 67% | 62% | 19% | 3% | 4/5, 8 yd |
| Tim PatrickWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | +1.1 | 53% | 48% | 8% | 10% | 2/2, 25 yd |
| Sam LaPortaTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +0.2 | 95% | 97% | 8% | 12% | 1/2, 25 yd |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −0.1 | 58% | 38% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Jameson WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.6 | −0.8 | 75% | 83% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, -4 yd |
| Ty ChandlerRB | 0.4 | −0.6 | 18% | 11% | 0% | — | 2 car, 4 yd |
| Sione VakiRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Cam AkersRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| C.J. HamRB | 0.0 | — | 17% | 16% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brandon PowellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:00) 5-D.Montgomery left tackle to DET 35 for 5 yards (44-J.Metellus; 24-C.Bynum). FUMBLES (44-J.Metellus), RECOVERED by MIN-0-I.Pace at DET 36. 0-I.Pace for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-60-G.Glasgow, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q4 6:00 · Lions · 2nd & 10 at DET 30 · gained 5 · -7.83 EP · −41.6% win probability
152 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 83 yards from the DET 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Lions0
Vikings6Lions0Vikings7Lions0Vikings10How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Lions6Vikings10Lions7Vikings10How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Lions13Vikings10Lions14Vikings10Lions20Vikings10Lions21Vikings10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Lions21Vikings16Lions21Vikings17Lions27Vikings17Lions28Vikings17How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Lions28Vikings20Lions28Vikings23How the play was built
A man in motion.
Lions28Vikings29How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Lions31Vikings29How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Lions at Vikings, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 22/25 | 280 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +14.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 15 | 116 | 7.7 | 2 | +5.8 |
| David Montgomery | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 | −10.7 |
| Jalen Reeves-Maybin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 8 | 8 | 112 | 1 | 32% | +10.2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 4 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 16% | +2.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell | 5 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Anzalone | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Rodriguez | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerby Joseph |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 22/27 | 259 | 1 | 1 | 4 | −0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_07_DET_MIN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 60 — over by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Jared Goff | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 | −1.5 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 16% | +1.4 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 4 | 39 | 1 | 16% | +5.0 |
| Tim Patrick | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 8% | +2.2 |
| Sam LaPorta | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 8% | +2.1 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 4% | −1.1 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Trevor Nowaske | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Branch | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Josh Paschal | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amik Robertson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrion Arnold | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 |
| 93 |
| 6.6 |
| 1 |
| +1.4 |
| Sam Darnold | 4 | 39 | 9.8 | 0 | +3.3 |
| Ty Chandler | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 7 | 8 | 81 | 1 | 31% | +4.6 |
| Jalen Nailor | 4 | 5 | 76 | 0 | 19% | +3.1 |
| Jordan Addison | 3 | 4 | 66 | 0 | 15% | −2.3 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 12% | +2.2 |
| Johnny Mundt | 4 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 19% | −3.6 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Pace | 3 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 6 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Metellus | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Smith | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Greenard | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephon Gilmore | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Bullard | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Harrison Phillips | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
