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2024 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 20, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Detroit LionsWinner

31

Minnesota Vikings

29

MIN -1 upsetO 50.5 ✓Dome

Detroit Lions 31–29 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 6:00, DET +41% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIN ↑DET ↓
Q4 · 6:00DET 28 — MIN 29DET ball · 2nd & 10DET 81%

(6:00) 5-D.Montgomery left tackle to DET 35 for 5 yards (44-J.Metellus; 24-C.Bynum). FUMBLES (44-J.Metellus), RECOVERED by MIN-0-I.Pace at DET 36. 0-I.Pace for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-60-G.Glasgow, Offensive

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 6:00DET +41% win prob(6:00) 5-D.Montgomery left tackle to DET 35 for 5 yards (44-J.Metellus; 24-C.Bynum). FUMBLES (44-J.Metellus), RECOVERED by MIN-0-I.Pace at DET 36. 0-I.Pace for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-60-G.Glasgow, Offensive Holding, declined.
  2. Q4 · 0:19MIN +28% win prob(:19) 39-J.Bates 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
  3. Q2 · 13:51MIN +18% win prob(13:51) 26-J.Gibbs right end for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q2 · 8:44MIN +16% win prob(8:44) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:50MIN Touchdown

    (11:50) 33-A.Jones left tackle for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 0 — MIN 7
  2. Q1 · 5:39MIN Field goal

    (5:39) 16-W.Reichard 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: DET 0 — MIN 10
  3. Q2 · 13:51DET Touchdown

    (13:51) 26-J.Gibbs right end for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 7 — MIN 10
  4. Q2 · 8:44DET Touchdown

    (8:44) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 14 — MIN 10
  5. Q2 · 0:29DET Touchdown

    (:29) (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 21 — MIN 10
  6. Q3 · 10:47MIN Touchdown

    (10:47) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 21 — MIN 17
  7. Q3 · 5:50DET Touchdown

    (5:50) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 11-K.Raymond for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 28 — MIN 17
  8. Q4 · 14:28MIN Field goal

    (14:28) 16-W.Reichard 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: DET 28 — MIN 20
  9. Q4 · 6:09MIN Field goal

    (6:09) 16-W.Reichard 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: DET 28 — MIN 23
  10. Q4 · 6:00MIN Touchdown

    (6:00) 5-D.Montgomery left tackle to DET 35 for 5 yards (44-J.Metellus; 24-C.Bynum). FUMBLES (44-J.Metellus), RECOVERED by MIN-0-I.Pace at DET 36. 0-I.Pace for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-60-G.Glasgow, Offensive Holding, declined.

    Score after this play: DET 28 — MIN 29
  11. Q4 · 0:19DET Field goal

    (:19) 39-J.Bates 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: DET 31 — MIN 29

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricLionsVikings
Offensive plays5453
Total yards395 (edge)383
Yards per play7.3 (edge)7.2
Expected points added / play0.13 (edge)0.05
Success rate43% (edge)36%
Dropback rate54%70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.51 (edge)0.06
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.310.03 (edge)
Third downs4/9 (edge)4/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)68 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps18 (edge)15
Sacks taken44
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs 0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

22/25, 280 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

14.9 expected points added · +15.5% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Sam DarnoldQB

22/27, 259 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-0.8 expected points added · +13.5% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Jahmyr GibbsRB

15 att, 116 yds, 2 TD

5.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Aaron JonesRB

14 att, 93 yds, 1 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

8/8 for 112 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

7/8 for 81 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DETDET 305142:29Turnover on downs
2MINDET 343340:48Touchdown +7
3DETDET 30571:33Punt
4MINMIN 209364:36Field goal +3
5DETDET 30591:36Punt
6MINMIN 204233:07Punt
7DETDET 316692:09Touchdown +7
8MINMIN 296242:18Punt
9DETDET 176732:45Touchdown +7
10MINMIN 256323:00Interception
11DETDET 2810725:13Touchdown +7
12MINMIN 203170:26End of half
13MINMIN 2011804:18Touchdown +7
14DETDET 3011854:59Touchdown +7
15MINMIN 3010616:19Field goal +3
16DETDET 308234:14Punt
17MINMIN 97564:06Field goal +3
18DETDET 30350:14Defensive touchdown
19DETDET 305-101:34Punt
20MINMIN 22461:44Punt
21DETDET 308482:17Field goal +3
22MINMIN 303140:15End of game

10 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 85 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff22/2528020414.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jahmyr Gibbs151167.725.8
David Montgomery9313.40-10.7
Jalen Reeves-Maybin111.00-2.9
Jared Goff2-4-2.00-1.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown88112132%10.2
Jahmyr Gibbs4444016%2.5
David Montgomery3439016%1.4
Kalif Raymond3439116%5.0
Tim Patrick222508%2.2
Sam LaPorta122508%2.1
Jameson Williams11-404%-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jack Campbell521.000
Alex Anzalone610.000
Malcolm Rodriguez421.000
Kerby Joseph510.000
Trevor Nowaske311.000
Carlton Davis310.000
Brian Branch400.012
Josh Paschal301.000
Amik Robertson200.000
Terrion Arnold110.000

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Darnold22/27259114-0.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones14936.611.4
Sam Darnold4399.803.3
Ty Chandler242.00-0.9
Justin Jefferson133.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Justin Jefferson7881131%4.6
Jalen Nailor4576019%3.1
Jordan Addison3466015%-2.3
Aaron Jones3323012%2.2
Johnny Mundt458019%-3.6
Josh Oliver11504%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ivan Pace371.000
Andrew Van Ginkel612.000
Josh Metellus340.000
Harrison Smith250.000
Camryn Bynum230.000
Jonathan Greenard221.000
Stephon Gilmore310.000
Jonathan Bullard130.002
Harrison Phillips120.000
Byron Murphy200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIN -1
Closing total
50.5
DET moneyline
-102
MIN moneyline
-118

Vikings closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 60 — over by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
DET 7 days · MIN 14 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Kevin O'Connell

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.