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2024 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 20, 2024 · Lambeau Field

Houston Texans

22

Green Bay PackersWinner

24

GB -3 no coverU 48 ✓

Green Bay Packers 24–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, GB +36% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3GB ↑HOU ↓
Q4 · 0:03HOU 22 — GB 24GB ball · 1st & 10GB 64%

(:03) 17-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:03GB +36% win prob(:03) 17-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
  2. Q1 · 12:59HOU +21% win prob(12:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right intended for 13-D.Wicks INTERCEPTED by 43-N.Hewitt (5-J.Pitre) at HOU 44. 43-N.Hewitt to GB 11 for 45 yards (75-S.Rhyan).
  3. Q4 · 1:00GB +16% win prob(1:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs to HOU 37 for 12 yards (24-D.Stingley).
  4. Q2 · 12:41GB +15% win prob(12:41) 6-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to GB 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 26-C.Ballentine MUFFS catch, touched at GB 11, RECOVERED by HOU-29-M.Stewart at GB 11.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:51HOU Field goal

    (11:51) 15-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. PENALTY on GB-55-K.Enagbare, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

    Score after this play: HOU 3 — GB 0
  2. Q2 · 13:20GB Touchdown

    (13:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 85-T.Kraft for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 3 — GB 7
  3. Q2 · 11:56HOU Touchdown

    (11:56) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 10 — GB 7
  4. Q2 · 8:57GB Touchdown

    (8:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 10 — GB 14
  5. Q2 · 4:34HOU Field goal

    (4:34) 15-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: HOU 13 — GB 14
  6. Q2 · 1:16HOU Touchdown

    (1:16) 28-J.Mixon left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: HOU 19 — GB 14
  7. Q3 · 7:31GB Touchdown

    (7:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 8-J.Jacobs for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 19 — GB 21
  8. Q4 · 1:48HOU Field goal

    (1:48) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: HOU 22 — GB 21
  9. Q4 · 0:03GB Field goal

    (:03) 17-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: HOU 22 — GB 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTexansPackers
Offensive plays5856
Total yards198277 (edge)
Yards per play3.44.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.18-0.08 (edge)
Success rate36%38% (edge)
Dropback rate50%64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.36-0.02 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.01 (edge)-0.19
Third downs4/134/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps1616
Sacks taken43 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

24/33, 220 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

-0.6 expected points added · +6.1% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

10/21, 86 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-11.4 expected points added · -14.8% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Joe MixonRB

25 att, 115 yds, 2 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Josh JacobsRB

12 att, 76 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Romeo DoubsWR

8/10 for 94 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Dontayvion WicksWR

3/6 for 48 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · -3.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1GBGB 205302:12Interception
2HOUGB 11411:00Field goal +3
3GBGB 25582:09Punt
4HOUHOU 208364:33Punt
5GBGB 814776:50Touchdown +7
6HOUHOU 30510:47Punt
7HOUGB 113110:37Touchdown +7
8GBGB 308403:01Touchdown +7
9HOUHOU 4310234:21Field goal +3
10GBGB 34200:12Interception
11HOUHOU 456503:05Touchdown +6
12GBGB 30511:06Punt
13HOUHOU 20100:07End of half
14HOUHOU 305-32:13Punt
15GBGB 2910715:22Touchdown +7
16HOUHOU 30500:41Punt
17GBGB 4492:09Punt
18HOUHOU 257223:29Punt
19GBGB 154-21:59Punt
20HOUHOU 326163:57Punt
21GBGB 20541:59Punt
22HOUHOU 3813416:27Field goal +3
23GBGB 309391:44Field goal +3

9 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 77 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud10/2186004-11.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Joe Mixon251154.620.2
C.J. Stroud5193.801.0
Dare Ogunbowale166.000.9
Dameon Pierce221.00-1.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Dalton Schultz1228011%0.6
Stefon Diggs5723037%-0.6
Cade Stover111505%1.4
Xavier Hutchinson111105%1.7
Joe Mixon239016%-0.8
Dare Ogunbowale01005%-1.4
Tank Dell040021%-2.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
D'Angelo Ross710.000
Neville Hewitt530.012
Jake Hansen430.000
Derek Stingley500.001
Tim Settle401.000
Jalen Pitre300.001
Danielle Hunter201.000
Eric Murray200.000
Ka'dar Hollman100.000
Troy Hairston100.000

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love24/33220323-0.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs12766.300.9
Emanuel Wilson5112.20-0.6
Jayden Reed100.00-1.7
Bo Melton1-1-1.00-1.1
Christian Watson1-4-4.00-1.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Romeo Doubs81094030%5.3
Dontayvion Wicks3648118%-3.3
Tucker Kraft3433112%3.4
Josh Jacobs5516115%-1.1
Jayden Reed2410012%1.5
Christian Watson12906%-3.3
Bo Melton11803%1.5
Ben Sims11203%-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Evan Williams630.000
Xavier McKinney511.000
Eric Wilson602.001
Rashan Gary141.000
Keisean Nixon230.000
Isaiah McDuffie220.000
Kingsley Enagbare220.000
Jaire Alexander300.000
Colby Wooden110.000
Javon Bullard110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
GB -3
Closing total
48
HOU moneyline
+142
GB moneyline
-170

Packers closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 48; the game landed 46 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
72°F, wind 3 mph
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
HOU 7 days · GB 7 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs Matt LaFleur