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Green Bay Packers 24, Texans 22 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:03, 1st and 10, on Brandon McManus — 36.0 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:03 · 1st and 10
Brandon McManus
Packers
(:03) 17-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Packers closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Green Bay Packers 24–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, Packers +36.0% win probability on one snap.
36.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Neville HewittTexansQ1 12:59(12:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right intended for 13-D.Wicks INTERCEPTED by 43-N.Hewitt (5-J.Pitre) at HOU 44. 43-N.Hewitt to GB 11 for 45 yards (75-S.Rhyan).
20.9pts
Romeo DoubsPackersQ4 1:00(1:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs to HOU 37 for 12 yards (24-D.Stingley).
16.2pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Texans owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Packers at 2 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — -0.02 expected points per dropback, against Texans at -0.36 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Texans owned this one and still lost it — +0.01 expected points per carry, against Packers at -0.19 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Packers won this one — 4 of 10 on third down, against Texans at 4 of 13 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Texans154 of 163 plays carry both curves
(:03) 17-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Swing +36.0 for PackersExpected points +0.65 for PackersModel and market agree here.play 160
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03GB +36% win prob(:03) 17-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
1st · 12:59HOU +21% win prob(12:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right intended for 13-D.Wicks INTERCEPTED by 43-N.Hewitt (5-J.Pitre) at HOU 44. 43-N.Hewitt to GB 11 for 45 yards (75-S.Rhyan).
4th · 1:00GB +16% win prob(1:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs to HOU 37 for 12 yards (24-D.Stingley).
2nd · 12:41GB +15% win prob(12:41) 6-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to GB 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 26-C.Ballentine MUFFS catch, touched at GB 11, RECOVERED by HOU-29-M.Stewart at GB 11.
2nd · 4:24HOU +14% win prob(4:24) 10-J.Love pass deep middle intended for 9-C.Watson INTERCEPTED by 21-C.Bullock [55-D.Hunter] at HOU 45. 21-C.Bullock to HOU 45 for no gain (9-C.Watson).
4th · 2:42GB +13% win prob(2:42) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 19-X.Hutchinson to GB 12 for 11 yards (23-J.Alexander).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brandon McManus's 45-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:51Ka'imi Fairbairn·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Weeks+33–0
2nd13:20Tucker Kraft·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+73–7
2nd8:57Dontayvion Wicks·30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+710–14
2nd4:34Ka'imi Fairbairn·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Weeks+313–14
2nd1:16Joe Mixon·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+619–14
3rd7:31Josh Jacobs·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+719–21
4th1:48Ka'imi Fairbairn·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Weeks+322–21
4th0:03Brandon McManus·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.OrzechLead never changed again+322–24
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryPackers
Texans2–5Packers
198Total yards277
3.4Yards per play4.9
36%Success rate38%
31%Third-down rate40%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays5
16First downs16
4Sacks taken3
0Turnovers2
The read
Packers ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.18Texans: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.08Packers: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.36Texans: −0.36 expected points added per play
−0.02Packers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Texans: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.19Packers: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 58 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Packers’s 56 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Texans 4, Packers 3.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's sack or hit rate turned over: 2.8% in week 6 against 24.1% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · +0.8 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Packers24.1%
leaned — got home · +10.7 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+1.56× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NoteHOU's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -11.5 pts, 12.7 points below their season mean of 1.2 pts and 2.0 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Brandon McManus+35% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 17-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Q4 0:03 · Packers · 1st & 10 at HOU 26 · gained nothing · +0.65 EP · +35.2% win probability
152 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 92 yards from the GB 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
46%
Yards
474
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.1081%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.2955%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.0229%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.5236%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Packers3 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Packers 20 to midfield
Texans3Packers0
Field goal5 plays, from the Packers 11 to the Packers 5
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 33
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Packers 36
The period ended10 plays, from the Packers 8 to the Texans 37
2nd quarter51 plays
Texans3Packers6
Texans3Packers7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Texans 41 to the Texans 14
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 31
Texans9Packers7
Texans10Packers7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Packers 11 to the Packers 2
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Texans10Packers13
Texans10Packers14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Texans 30
Texans13Packers14
Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 43 to the Packers 32
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Texans19Packers14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 45 to the Packers 4
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Packers 39
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 35
Texans19Packers20
Texans19Packers21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 29 to the Texans 5
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 35
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 4 to the Packers 13
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Packers 44
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter43 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 32 to the Texans 45
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Texans22Packers21
Field goal16 plays, from the Texans 38 to the Packers 12
Texans22Packers24
Field goal12 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Texans 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
