2024 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 20, 2024 · Levi's Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

San Francisco 49ers

SF -2.5 upsetU 47.5 ✓49ers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Kansas City Chiefs 28–18. Biggest swing: Q3 6:02, KC +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 6:02KC 14 — SF 12SF ball · 3rd & 6SF 56%

(6:02) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left intended for 10-R.Bell INTERCEPTED by 30-C.Roland-Wallace at KC 21. 30-C.Roland-Wallace ran ob at KC 21 for no gain.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 6:02KC +15% win prob(6:02) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left intended for 10-R.Bell INTERCEPTED by 30-C.Roland-Wallace at KC 21. 30-C.Roland-Wallace ran ob at KC 21 for no gain.
Q3 · 14:07KC +14% win prob(14:07) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right intended for 1-X.Worthy INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Lenoir at SF 44. 2-D.Lenoir pushed ob at KC 23 for 33 yards (64-W.Morris).
Q1 · 6:15KC +13% win prob(6:15) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 89-J.Fortson INTERCEPTED by 93-K.Davis at SF 30. 93-K.Davis to SF 32 for 2 yards (74-J.Taylor).
Q4 · 9:34KC +13% win prob(9:34) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 18-C.Conley INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Hicks [56-G.Karlaftis] at KC -2. Touchback.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 1:11SF Field goal
(1:11) 41-A.Carlson 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: KC 0 — SF 3
Q2 · 11:28KC Touchdown
(11:28) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 7 — SF 3
Q2 · 6:53KC Touchdown
(6:53) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 14 — SF 3
Q2 · 0:04SF Field goal
(:04) 41-A.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: KC 14 — SF 6
Q3 · 10:32SF Touchdown
(10:32) 13-B.Purdy up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: KC 14 — SF 12
Q4 · 14:17KC Touchdown
(14:17) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-27-J.Brown, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 21 — SF 12
Q4 · 3:16KC Touchdown
(3:16) 17-M.Hardman left end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-24-S.Moore, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on SF-2-D.Lenoir, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 28 — SF 12
Q4 · 1:14SF Touchdown
(1:14) 13-B.Purdy up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: KC 28 — SF 18

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	49ers
Offensive plays	66	57
Total yards	331 (edge)	310
Yards per play	5.0	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.02 (edge)	-0.18
Success rate	50% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	48%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.27
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01 (edge)	-0.01
Third downs	8/14 (edge)	2/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2 (edge)	3

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

17/31, 212 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

-10.7 expected points added · -9.6% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

16/27, 154 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-5.7 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Kareem HuntRB

22 att, 78 yds, 2 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Jordan MasonRB

14 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

-2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

6/7 for 92 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 0.4 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Noah GrayTE

4/4 for 66 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 30	5	15	2:35	Punt
2	KC	KC 15	7	30	3:15	Turnover on downs
3	SF	KC 45	1	0	0:11	Interception
4	KC	KC 42	6	34	2:48	Interception
5	SF	SF 32	4	9	2:01	Punt
6	KC	KC 8	4	3	2:05	Punt
7	SF	SF 41	4	4	0:59	Field goal +3
8	KC	KC 30	9	60	4:42	Touchdown +7
9	SF	SF 30	5	8	1:03	Punt
10	KC	SF 30	8	30	3:36	Touchdown +7
11	SF	SF 30	6	21	2:45	Punt
12	KC	KC 14	6	13	2:21	Punt
13	SF	SF 10	9	74	1:39	Field goal +3
14	KC	KC 29	4	2	1:05	Interception
15	SF	KC 23	8	23	3:26	Touchdown +6
16	KC	KC 33	5	0	1:01	Punt
17	SF	SF 20	7	46	3:32	Interception
18	KC	KC 21	14	79	6:43	Touchdown +7
19	SF	SF 30	10	60	4:44	Interception
20	KC	KC 20	13	80	6:20	Touchdown +7
21	SF	SF 35	10	50	2:01	Touchdown +6
22	KC	SF 39	3	0	1:08	End of game

8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 80 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	16/27	154	0	2	2	-5.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kareem Hunt	22	78	3.5	2	0.5
Patrick Mahomes	5	39	7.8	1	4.3
Mecole Hardman	2	38	19.0	1	3.9
Carson Steele	6	17	2.8	0	-0.6
Samaje Perine	2	6	3.0	0	-0.6
Xavier Worthy	1	5	5.0	0	0.1
Jaden Hicks	1	1	1.0	0	-2.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Noah Gray	4	4	66	16%	5.7
Samaje Perine	1	1	22	4%	2.3
Xavier Worthy	3	8	19	32%	-6.1
Mecole Hardman	1	2	17	8%	1.2
Travis Kelce	4	5	17	20%	0.4
Justin Watson	1	1	8	4%	0.7
Kareem Hunt	2	2	5	8%	0.5
Joseph Fortson	0	1	0	4%	-5.5
Skyy Moore	0	1	0	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Justin Reid	6	3	0.0	1	1
Nick Bolton	5	1	0.0	0	1
Bryan Cook	3	1	0.0	0	0
Leo Chenal	4	0	0.0	0	1
Drue Tranquill	2	1	0.0	0	0
George Karlaftis	2	1	1.0	0	0
Jaylen Watson	2	1	0.0	0	0
Nazeeh Johnson	1	2	0.0	0	0
Chamarri Conner	2	1	0.0	0	0
Trent McDuffie	1	1	0.0	0	1

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Purdy	17/31	212	0	3	1	-10.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jordan Mason	14	58	4.1	0	-2.6
Brock Purdy	8	27	3.4	2	3.3
Kyle Juszczyk	1	14	14.0	0	0.3
Isaac Guerendo	1	2	2.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	6	7	92	23%	0.4
Jacob Cowing	2	3	50	10%	3.1
Brandon Aiyuk	2	6	23	19%	-3.4
Ricky Pearsall	3	5	21	16%	-1.5
Jordan Mason	2	2	11	6%	0.5
Ronnie Bell	1	2	10	6%	-1.6
Isaac Guerendo	1	1	5	3%	0.4
Kyle Juszczyk	0	3	0	10%	-1.8
Chris Conley	0	2	0	6%	-5.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Malik Mustapha	4	6	0.0	0	0
Deommodore Lenoir	5	2	0.0	1	1
Fred Warner	5	2	0.0	0	0
Leonard Floyd	1	4	1.0	0	0
Ji'Ayir Brown	1	3	0.0	0	0
Dee Winters	2	2	0.0	0	0
Jordan Elliott	3	1	0.0	0	0
Maliek Collins	2	2	0.5	0	0
Charvarius Ward	2	2	0.0	0	1
Nick Bosa	2	1	0.5	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -2.5
Closing total: 47.5
KC moneyline: +120
SF moneyline: -142

49ers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 46 — under by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 78°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Alan Eck
Rest: KC 13 days · SF 10 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Kyle Shanahan