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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 20, 2024 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 7
It turned at Q3 6:02, 3rd and 6, on Christian Roland-Wallace — 14.5 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Kansas City Chiefs 28–18. Biggest swing: Q3 6:02, Chiefs +14.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 6:02 · 3rd and 6
Christian Roland-Wallace
Chiefs
(6:02) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left intended for 10-R.Bell INTERCEPTED by 30-C.Roland-Wallace at KC 21. 30-C.Roland-Wallace ran ob at KC 21 for no gain.
14.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 8 of 14 on third down, against 49ers at 2 of 11 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against 49ers at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against 49ers at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.02 expected points per snap, against 49ers at -0.18 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chiefs.
(6:02) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left intended for 10-R.Bell INTERCEPTED by 30-C.Roland-Wallace at KC 21. 30-C.Roland-Wallace ran ob at KC 21 for no gain.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Kareem Hunt's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 11:28 left in the 2nd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by category49ers
Chiefs ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 66 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against 49ers’s 57 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 5, 49ers 4.
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
KC's early-down pass rate, 36.0%, is past their previous low of 53.1% in week 2 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points. · −2.5σ from their own normal
SF's early-down pass rate turned over: 39.6% in week 6 against 65.9% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.5 points. · +0.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 23 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs-1.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −6.8 vs their 5.0 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 66 snaps
49ers-1.6 ptsright on their number · +0.7 vs their -2.3 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 23% to 86%
Tendencies room →Chiefs36.0%off script — ran early · −22.4 vs their 58.4%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−2.54× that swing) · 50 early downs
49ers65.9%inside their normal wobble · +11.5 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 43%
Tendencies room →Chiefs21.9%right on their number · +0.6 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
49ers21.1%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -33% to 92%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 29.8%.
49ers20.0%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 21.7%, and they swing ±20.8 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 60%
Tendencies room →Chiefs34.2%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 35.8%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
49ers12.5%inside their normal wobble · −7.7 vs their 20.2%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 43%
Tendencies room →Chiefs15.8%right on their number · −2.0 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
49ers18.8%inside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
KC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 36.0%, 22.4 points below their season mean of 58.4% and 2.5 times their own 8.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
17/31, 212 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT
-10.7 expected points added · -9.6% completion over expected
Passing · KC
16/27, 154 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-5.7 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Mecole Hardman banked 4.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem HuntRB · Committee Back | 22.3 | −0.5 | 64% | 53% | 8% | 0% | 22 car, 78 yd, 2 TD · 2/2, 5 yd |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 17.2 | −10.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/31, 212 yd, 3 INT · 8 car, 27 yd, 2 TD |
| George KittleTE · Featured Receiver | 15.2 | +3.4 | 92% | 89% | 23% | 27% | 6/7, 92 yd |
| Mecole HardmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.5 | +4.9 | 30% | 34% | 8% | 0% | 2 car, 38 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 17 yd |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 12.1 | −6.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/27, 154 yd, 2 INT · 5 car, 39 yd, 1 TD |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.6 | +3.6 | 67% | 56% | 16% | 19% | 4/4, 66 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB · Committee Back | 8.9 | −4.0 | 86% | 84% | 6% | 0% | 14 car, 58 yd · 2/2, 11 yd |
| Jacob CowingWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.0 | −0.9 | 19% | 24% | 10% | 14% | 2/3, 50 yd |
| Travis KelceTE · Featured Receiver | 5.7 | −1.5 | 77% | 94% | 20% | 18% | 4/5, 17 yd |
| Xavier WorthyWR · Alpha Receiver | 5.4 | −11.4 | 60% | 81% | 32% | 62% | 1 car, 5 yd · 3/8, 19 yd |
| Ricky PearsallWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | −3.3 | 76% | 87% | 16% | 15% | 3/5, 21 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Featured Receiver | 4.3 | −5.4 | 40% | 42% | 19% | 21% | 2/6, 23 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB | 3.8 | +1.4 | 21% | 34% | 4% | 1% | 2 car, 6 yd · 1/1, 22 yd |
| Ronnie BellWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −1.6 | 38% | 39% | 6% | 6% | 1/2, 10 yd |
| Justin WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.3 | 73% | 78% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Carson SteeleRB | 1.7 | −0.9 | 20% | 13% | 0% | — | 6 car, 17 yd |
| Isaac GuerendoRB | 1.7 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 1.4 | −3.5 | 41% | 29% | 10% | 7% | 1 car, 14 yd · 0/3, 0 yd |
| Joseph FortsonTE | 0.0 | −1.4 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 47% | 28% | 4% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Chris ConleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.2 | 70% | 71% | 6% | 10% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:15) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 89-J.Fortson INTERCEPTED by 93-K.Davis at SF 30. 93-K.Davis to SF 32 for 2 yards (74-J.Taylor).
Q1 6:15 · Chiefs · 2nd & 15 at SF 24 · gained nothing · -5.47 EP · −16.7% win probability
157 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 80 yards from the KC 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Chiefs0
49ers3Chiefs649ers3Chiefs749ers3Chiefs1349ers3Chiefs1449ers3Chiefs1449ers6Chiefs1449ers12How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Chiefs2049ers12Chiefs2149ers12How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Chiefs2749ers12Chiefs2849ers12Chiefs2849ers18Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 16/27 | 154 | 0 | 2 | 2 | −5.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 22 | 78 | 3.5 | 2 | +0.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 1 | +4.3 |
| Mecole Hardman |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Gray | 4 | 4 | 66 | 0 | 16% | +5.7 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 4% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Reid | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Nick Bolton | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bryan Cook |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 17/31 | 212 | 0 | 3 | 1 | −10.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_07_KC_SF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 46 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 38 |
| 19.0 |
| 1 |
| +3.9 |
| Carson Steele | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Jaden Hicks | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −2.8 |
| +2.3 |
| Xavier Worthy | 3 | 8 | 19 | 0 | 32% | −6.1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 8% | +1.2 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 20% | +0.4 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8% | +0.5 |
| Joseph Fortson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −5.5 |
| Skyy Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Leo Chenal | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Drue Tranquill | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Karlaftis | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Watson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nazeeh Johnson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chamarri Conner | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent McDuffie | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Mason | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Brock Purdy | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 2 | +3.3 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Isaac Guerendo | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 6 | 7 | 92 | 0 | 23% | +0.4 |
| Jacob Cowing | 2 | 3 | 50 | 0 | 10% | +3.1 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 19% | −3.4 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 16% | −1.5 |
| Jordan Mason | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 6% | +0.5 |
| Ronnie Bell | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | −1.6 |
| Isaac Guerendo | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −1.8 |
| Chris Conley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −5.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Mustapha | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Fred Warner | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Floyd | 1 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Winters | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Elliott | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maliek Collins | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Charvarius Ward | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Bosa | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
