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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:09 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 7 · Mon, Oct 21, 2024 · State Farm Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 7
It turned at Q4 0:02, 3rd and 13, on Chad Ryland — 25.9 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Arizona Cardinals 17–15 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, Cardinals +25.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:02 · 3rd and 13
Chad Ryland
Cardinals
(:02) 38-C.Ryland 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
25.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 13 on third down, against Cardinals at 2 of 7 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Cardinals won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Chargers at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Cardinals won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Chargers at 6 chunk plays.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cardinals won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(:02) 38-C.Ryland 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Chad Ryland's 32-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 4th put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Chad Ryland32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap A.BrewerLead never changed again+315–178 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chargerscategory by categoryCardinals
Cardinals ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 63 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 53 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 1, Cardinals 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's blitz rate sent, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 20.6% in week 4 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points. · −2.4σ from their own normal
ARI's blitz rate sent, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 13.5% in week 4 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points. · −2.1σ from their own normal
LAC's sack or hit rate, 3.4%, is past their previous low of 6.9% in week 2 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
LAC's early-down pass rate, 67.3%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 3 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Chargers2.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their -1.6 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 63 snaps
Cardinals-1.1 ptsright on their number · +1.6 vs their -2.7 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 86%
Tendencies room →Chargers67.3%leaned — passed early · +12.1 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+1.04× that swing) · 49 early downs
Cardinals55.6%right on their number · −1.2 vs their 56.7%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 62%
Tendencies room →Chargers20.9%inside their normal wobble · −9.8 vs their 30.7%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Cardinals31.0%inside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 27.1%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28% to 83%
Fourth Down room →Chargers25.0%right on their number · +7.1 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±16.0 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Cardinals—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 27.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 59%
Tendencies room →Chargers0.0%off script — sat back · −24.8 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−2.43× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Cardinals0.0%off script — sat back · −26.5 vs their 26.5%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−2.07× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 32%
Tendencies room →Chargers3.4%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.6 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.51× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Cardinals16.3%inside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
LAC's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 24.8 points below their season mean of 24.8% and 2.4 times their own 10.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
27/39, 349 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
13.3 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected
Passing · ARI
14/26, 145 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-0.3 expected points added · -17.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Kyler Murray banked 7.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler MurrayQB · Starter QB | 20.2 | +7.9 | 95% | — | 0% | — | 14/26, 145 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 64 yd, 1 TD |
| James ConnerRB · Bell Cow Back | 17.2 | +1.1 | 84% | 76% | 16% | 0% | 19 car, 101 yd · 2/4, 51 yd |
| Will DisslyTE · Alpha Receiver | 16.1 | −0.8 | 73% | 77% | 30% | 20% | 8/11, 81 yd |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 14.8 | −0.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/39, 349 yd · 2 car, 8 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.3 | +1.7 | 59% | 70% | 14% | 20% | 4/5, 63 yd |
| Trey McBrideTE · Alpha Receiver | 10.1 | −0.9 | 95% | 93% | 28% | 27% | 5/7, 51 yd |
| Ladd McConkeyWR · Featured Receiver | 9.6 | −0.5 | 86% | 93% | 19% | 11% | 5/7, 46 yd |
| J.K. DobbinsRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.6 | −1.7 | 68% | 66% | 8% | 2% | 14 car, 40 yd · 3/3, 26 yd |
| Greg DortchWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.5 | +2.7 | 30% | 34% | 8% | 7% | 1/2, 5 yd, 1 TD |
| Simi FehokoWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.5 | −2.3 | 92% | 93% | 16% | 25% | 3/6, 45 yd |
| Marvin HarrisonWR · Featured Receiver | 5.1 | −4.0 | 84% | 90% | 24% | 42% | 3/6, 21 yd |
| Stone SmarttTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jalen ReagorWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −0.6 | 23% | 14% | 3% | 11% | 1 car, -1 yd · 1/1, 41 yd |
| Kimani VidalRB | 2.9 | −0.8 | 27% | 30% | 3% | 1% | 3 car, 10 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Michael WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −2.8 | 77% | 72% | 12% | 27% | 1/3, 15 yd |
| Eric TomlinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.8 | 33% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Emari DemercadoRB | 1.4 | +0.8 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tip ReimanTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −0.3 | 53% | 48% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −0.4 | 37% | 28% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| Clayton TuneQB | 0.2 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Hassan HaskinsRB | 0.2 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Zay JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 19% | 28% | 4% | 8% | 0/1, 0 yd |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:02) 38-C.Ryland 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q4 0:02 · Cardinals · 3rd & 13 at LAC 14 · gained nothing · +0.18 EP · +30.3% win probability
149 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 85 yards from the LAC 12 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chargers3
Cardinals0Chargers3Cardinals6Chargers3Cardinals7Chargers6Cardinals7How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chargers9Cardinals7How the play was built
Empty backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Chargers9Cardinals13Chargers9Cardinals14Chargers12Cardinals14How the play was built
Empty backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Chargers15Cardinals14How the play was built
Empty backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
Chargers15Cardinals17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chargers at Cardinals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 27/39 | 349 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +13.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Kimani Vidal | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Justin Herbert |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dissly | 8 | 11 | 81 | 0 | 30% | +3.7 |
| Josh Palmer | 4 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 14% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derwin James | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Hart | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alohi Gilman |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 14/26 | 145 | 1 | 1 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_07_LAC_ARI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44; the game landed 32 — under by 12.0.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 8 |
| 4.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.3 |
| Hassan Haskins | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| +3.9 |
| Ladd McConkey | 5 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 19% | +1.4 |
| Simi Fehoko | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0 | 16% | +2.2 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 1 | 41 | 0 | 3% | −4.0 |
| Stone Smartt | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 5% | +2.0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 8% | +0.6 |
| Kimani Vidal | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Daiyan Henley | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Junior Colson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Perryman | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tuli Tuipulotu | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tarheeb Still | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bud Dupree | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Otito Ogbonnia | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Conner | 19 | 101 | 5.3 | 0 | +2.9 |
| Kyler Murray | 6 | 64 | 10.7 | 1 | +3.3 |
| Emari Demercado | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Clayton Tune | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | −4.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 2 | 4 | 51 | 0 | 16% | +0.8 |
| Trey McBride | 5 | 7 | 51 | 0 | 28% | +2.3 |
| Marvin Harrison | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 24% | +1.3 |
| Michael Wilson | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 12% | −1.2 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 8% | −0.0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Tip Reiman | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Zay Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyzir White | 2 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Max Melton | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Budda Baker | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Starling Thomas | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Williams | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Krys Barnes | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jesse Luketa | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Wilson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Thompson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Naquan Jones | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
