For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Chargers151 of 163 plays carry both curves
(:02) 38-C.Ryland 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Swing +25.9 for CardinalsExpected points +0.18 for CardinalsThe model had Chargers 4 points higher than the market did.play 161
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:02ARI +26% win prob(:02) 38-C.Ryland 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
4th · 1:45ARI +18% win prob(1:45) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 6-J.Conner pushed ob at LAC 22 for 33 yards (3-D.James).
4th · 14:26ARI +18% win prob(14:26) 1-K.Murray scrambles left end for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 5:15ARI +14% win prob(5:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 87-S.Fehoko to ARI 28 for 25 yards (21-G.Williams).
2nd · 0:03ARI +12% win prob(:03) 11-C.Dicker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
4th · 13:38ARI +11% win prob(13:38) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 84-S.Smartt pushed ob at ARI 36 for 31 yards (34-J.Thompson).
3rd · 6:08
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chad Ryland's 32-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 4th put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd12:04Cameron Dicker·59-yd field goal59-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+33–0
4th12:13Cameron Dicker·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+312–14
4th1:58Cameron Dicker·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+315–14
4th0:02Chad Ryland·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap A.BrewerLead never changed again+315–17
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryCardinals
Chargers3–4Cardinals
395Total yards329
6.3Yards per play6.2
43%Success rate49%
46%Third-down rate29%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays9
20First downs20
3Sacks taken0
1Turnovers1
The read
Cardinals ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Chargers: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.04Cardinals: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Chargers: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.15Cardinals: +0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.14Chargers: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.11Cardinals: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 63 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 53 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 1, Cardinals 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's early-down pass rate, 67.3%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 3 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.6 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.51× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Cardinals16.3%
inside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteLAC's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 24.8 points below their season mean of 24.8% and 2.4 times their own 10.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Chad Ryland+30% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:02) 38-C.Ryland 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q4 0:02 · Cardinals · 3rd & 13 at LAC 14 · gained nothing · +0.18 EP · +30.3% win probability
149 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 85 yards from the LAC 12 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
47%
Yards
721
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.0975%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-0.0265%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR15+0.2940%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.0736%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.4529%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.0657%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Intercepted7 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Chargers 41
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the Cardinals 34
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Chargers 12 to the Cardinals 44
Punt9 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Chargers 46
The period ended8 plays, from the Chargers 10 to the Chargers 31
2nd quarter45 plays
Chargers3Cardinals0
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 47 to the Cardinals 41
Chargers3Cardinals6
Chargers3Cardinals7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cardinals 21 to the Chargers 5
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Chargers 37
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 27 to midfield
Chargers6Cardinals7
Field goal11 plays, from the Chargers 11 to the Cardinals 28
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Cardinals 38
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Cardinals 7 to the Chargers 45
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Chargers9Cardinals7
Field goal12 plays, from the Chargers 45 to the Cardinals 9
The period ended4 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Cardinals 45
4th quarter47 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Chargers9Cardinals13
Chargers9Cardinals14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cardinals 46 to the Chargers 44
Chargers12Cardinals14
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Cardinals 29
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Chargers 45
How the play was built
Empty backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back and two tight endsDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Chargers15Cardinals14
Field goal15 plays, from the Chargers 1 to the Cardinals 22
How the play was built
Empty backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Chargers15Cardinals17
Field goal13 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Chargers 11
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
