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2024 Week 7 · Mon, Oct 21, 2024 · State Farm Stadium

Los Angeles Chargers

15

Arizona CardinalsWinner

17

LAC -1 upsetU 44 ✓Dome

Arizona Cardinals 17–15 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, ARI +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3ARI ↑LAC ↓
Q4 · 0:02LAC 15 — ARI 17ARI ball · 3rd & 13ARI 74%

(:02) 38-C.Ryland 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:02ARI +26% win prob(:02) 38-C.Ryland 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
  2. Q4 · 1:45ARI +18% win prob(1:45) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 6-J.Conner pushed ob at LAC 22 for 33 yards (3-D.James).
  3. Q4 · 14:26ARI +18% win prob(14:26) 1-K.Murray scrambles left end for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q3 · 5:15ARI +14% win prob(5:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 87-S.Fehoko to ARI 28 for 25 yards (21-G.Williams).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 12:04LAC Field goal

    (12:04) 11-C.Dicker 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 3 — ARI 0
  2. Q2 · 5:44ARI Touchdown

    (5:44) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 4-G.Dortch for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 3 — ARI 7
  3. Q2 · 0:03LAC Field goal

    (:03) 11-C.Dicker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 6 — ARI 7
  4. Q3 · 0:43LAC Field goal

    (:43) 11-C.Dicker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 9 — ARI 7
  5. Q4 · 14:26ARI Touchdown

    (14:26) 1-K.Murray scrambles left end for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 9 — ARI 14
  6. Q4 · 12:13LAC Field goal

    (12:13) 11-C.Dicker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 12 — ARI 14
  7. Q4 · 1:58LAC Field goal

    (1:58) 11-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 15 — ARI 14
  8. Q4 · 0:02ARI Field goal

    (:02) 38-C.Ryland 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    Score after this play: LAC 15 — ARI 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChargersCardinals
Offensive plays6353
Total yards395 (edge)329
Yards per play6.3 (edge)6.2
Expected points added / play0.05 (edge)0.04
Success rate43%49% (edge)
Dropback rate68%55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.140.15 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.14-0.11 (edge)
Third downs6/13 (edge)2/7
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)69 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps2020
Sacks taken30 (edge)
Turnovers11

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

27/39, 349 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

13.3 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

14/26, 145 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-0.3 expected points added · -17.5% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

19 att, 101 yds, 0 TD

2.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

6 att, 64 yds, 1 TD

3.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Will DisslyTE

8/11 for 81 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Josh PalmerWR

4/5 for 63 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ARIARI 307293:05Interception
2ARIARI 28460:59Punt
3LACLAC 126853:29Fumble
4ARIARI 208343:27Punt
5LACLAC 1013447:01Field goal +3
6ARIARI 2112676:19Touchdown +7
7LACLAC 30571:39Punt
8ARIARI 276232:14Punt
9LACLAC 119571:47Field goal +3
10LACLAC 309344:35Punt
11ARIARI 78314:19Turnover on downs
12LACLAC 4510505:26Field goal +3
13ARIARI 306701:26Touchdown +7
14LACLAC 307412:05Field goal +3
15ARIARI 308252:03Punt
16LACLAC 115778:12Field goal +3
17ARIARI 308441:54Field goal +3

8 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a fumble.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert27/3934900313.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
J.K. Dobbins14402.90-1.3
Kimani Vidal3103.30-0.9
Justin Herbert284.000.3
Hassan Haskins221.000.2
Jalen Reagor1-1-1.00-0.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Will Dissly81181030%3.7
Josh Palmer4563014%3.9
Ladd McConkey5746019%1.4
Simi Fehoko3645016%2.2
Jalen Reagor114103%-4.0
Stone Smartt123105%2.0
J.K. Dobbins332608%0.6
Kimani Vidal11903%0.5
Eric Tomlinson11703%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Derwin James530.000
Cam Hart610.001
Alohi Gilman320.000
Daiyan Henley400.001
Junior Colson220.000
Denzel Perryman120.000
Tuli Tuipulotu210.000
Tarheeb Still210.000
Bud Dupree110.000
Otito Ogbonnia110.000

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kyler Murray14/26145110-0.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Conner191015.302.9
Kyler Murray66410.713.3
Emari Demercado11414.00-0.2
Clayton Tune320.70-4.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
James Conner2451016%0.8
Trey McBride5751028%2.3
Marvin Harrison3621024%1.3
Michael Wilson1315012%-1.2
Greg Dortch12518%-0.0
Elijah Higgins11104%-0.5
Tip Reiman11104%-0.6
Zay Jones01004%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kyzir White270.000
Max Melton810.001
Budda Baker440.000
Starling Thomas320.000
Garrett Williams310.001
Krys Barnes120.000
Jesse Luketa210.000
Mack Wilson120.000
Jalen Thompson210.000
Naquan Jones201.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LAC -1
Closing total
44
LAC moneyline
-122
ARI moneyline
+102

Chargers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 32 — under by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
LAC 8 days · ARI 8 days
Coaches
Jim Harbaugh vs Jonathan Gannon