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Las Vegas Raiders 15 at Los Angeles Rams 20. Final.
Rams -7 no coverU 43 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 7
Los Angeles Rams 20, Raiders 15 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 1:23, 2nd and 10, on Gardner Minshew — 15.6 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:23 · 2nd and 10
Gardner Minshew
Rams
(1:23) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at LV 37 for -7 yards (14-C.Durant). FUMBLES (14-C.Durant) [14-C.Durant], RECOVERED by LA-3-K.Curl at LV 33. 3-K.Curl for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Rams closed -7, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Los Angeles Rams 20–15. Biggest swing: Q2 1:23, Rams +15.6% win probability on one snap.
15.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Brock BowersRaidersQ1 0:20(:20) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 89-B.Bowers pushed ob at LA 25 for 25 yards (39-J.McCollough).
10.2pts
Nate HobbsRaidersQ3 1:15(1:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 5-T.Atwell INTERCEPTED by 39-N.Hobbs (41-R.Spillane) at LA 49. 39-N.Hobbs to LA 14 for 35 yards (23-K.Williams).
8.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Rams won this one — 1 giveaway, against Raiders at 4 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Rams won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Raiders at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — -0.04 expected points per carry, against Rams at -0.27 expected points per carry.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Raiders168 of 180 plays carry both curves
(1:23) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at LV 37 for -7 yards (14-C.Durant). FUMBLES (14-C.Durant) [14-C.Durant], RECOVERED by LA-3-K.Curl at LV 33. 3-K.Curl for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +15.6 for RamsExpected points +8.77 for RamsThe model had Raiders 9 points higher than the market did.play 75
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:23LV +16% win prob(1:23) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at LV 37 for -7 yards (14-C.Durant). FUMBLES (14-C.Durant) [14-C.Durant], RECOVERED by LA-3-K.Curl at LV 33. 3-K.Curl for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:20LA +10% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 89-B.Bowers pushed ob at LA 25 for 25 yards (39-J.McCollough).
3rd · 1:15LV +9% win prob(1:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 5-T.Atwell INTERCEPTED by 39-N.Hobbs (41-R.Spillane) at LA 49. 39-N.Hobbs to LA 14 for 35 yards (23-K.Williams).
2nd · 4:57LV +8% win prob(4:57) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short left intended for 89-B.Bowers INTERCEPTED by 14-C.Durant [8-J.Verse] at LV 47. 14-C.Durant to LV 47 for no gain (89-B.Bowers). Penalty on LV, Illegal Formation, declined.
4th · 2:46LA +7% win prob(2:46) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 44 for 14 yards (7-T.Moehrig).
4th · 3:30LV +6% win prob(3:30) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to LA 4 for no gain (37-Q.Lake).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kyren Williams's 13-yard rushing touchdown with 3:05 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd14:08Daniel Carlson·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+33–0
2nd3:05Kyren Williams·13-yd TD run13-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+73–7
2nd0:04Daniel Carlson·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+36–14
3rd7:33Kyren Williams·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide right+66–20
3rd2:29Daniel Carlson·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+39–20
4th14:55Daniel Carlson·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+312–20
4th2:50Daniel Carlson·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+315–20
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Raiderscategory by categoryRams
Raiders2–6Rams
317Total yards261
4.2Yards per play5.2
33%Success rate42%
20%Third-down rate20%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays5
19First downs13
2Sacks taken1
4Turnovers1
The read
Rams ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.34Raiders: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.29Rams: −0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.53Raiders: −0.53 expected points added per play
−0.30Rams: −0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Raiders: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.27Rams: −0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 75 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Rams’s 50 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 4, Rams 3.
NoteRaiders outgained Rams 317-261 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LA's sack or hit rate, 21.7%, is past their previous high of 16.1% in week 1 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Rams21.7%
leaned — got home · +10.2 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.65× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteLV's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 58.3%, 25.2 points above their season mean of 33.1% and 1.9 times their own 13.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
58Jackson Powers-JohnsonG · Every snap100%79 snaps
74Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%79 snaps
61Jordan MeredithG · Every snap100%79 snaps
—Delmar GlazeT · Every snap100%79 snaps
68Andre JamesC · Every snap100%79 snaps
19DJ TurnerWR · Full-time95%75 snaps
11Tre TuckerWR · Full-time95%75 snaps
89Brock BowersTE · Full-time84%66 snaps
15Gardner MinshewQB · Full-time82%65 snaps
22Alexander MattisonRB · Heavy rotation70%55 snaps
81Alex BachmanWR · Rotational46%36 snaps
84Harrison BryantTE · Rotational29%23 snaps
83Kristian WilkersonWR · Situational23%18 snaps
—John Samuel ShenkerTE · Situational18%14 snaps
12Aidan O'ConnellQB · Situational18%14 snaps
8Ameer AbdullahRB · Situational16%13 snaps
3Zamir WhiteRB · Situational14%11 snaps
88Justin ShorterTE · Situational4%3 snaps
75Andrus PeatG · Situational4%3 snaps
77Thayer Munford Jr.T · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Sam WebbCBJanarius RobinsonDEDylan ParhamGKana'i MaugaILBTommy EichenbergMLBDylan LaubeRBJakobi MeyersWR
1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Minshew sacked−17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:23) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at LV 37 for -7 yards (14-C.Durant). FUMBLES (14-C.Durant) [14-C.Durant], RECOVERED by LA-3-K.Curl at LV 33. 3-K.Curl for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 1:23 · Raiders · 2nd & 10 at LV 44 · lost 11 · -8.77 EP · −17.0% win probability
166 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 175. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 71 yards from the LV 25 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.27
Success rate
38%
Yards
576
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.3866%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.3051%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.2062%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.1420%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 49
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 11 to the Rams 47
Punt9 plays, from the Raiders 8 to the Raiders 31
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 24 to the Rams 44
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
The period ended6 plays, from the Raiders 24 to midfield
2nd quarter52 plays
Raiders3Rams0
Field goal4 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 20
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Raiders 49
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 49 to the Rams 48
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 29
Intercepted5 plays, from the Raiders 28 to the Raiders 41
Raiders3Rams6
Raiders3Rams7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Raiders 47 to the Raiders 13
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Raiders3Rams13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 44
Raiders3Rams14
Raiders6Rams14
Field goal15 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Rams 24
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 36
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 10 to the Raiders 12
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 40 to the Raiders 41
Intercepted3 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 24
Raiders6Rams20
Touchdown4 plays, from the Raiders 31 to the Raiders 2
Raiders9Rams20
Field goal13 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Rams 20
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 47
The period ended4 plays, from the Rams 14 to the Rams 13
4th quarter44 plays
Raiders12Rams20
Field goal2 plays
No good11 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Raiders 11
Raiders15Rams20
Field goal16 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Rams 4
The period ended9 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Raiders 47
Intercepted3 plays
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -7
Closing total
43
Raiders moneyline
+280
Rams moneyline
-355
Rams closed -7, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43; the game landed 35 — under by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Raiders 7 days · Rams 14 days
Coaches
Antonio Pierce vs Sean McVay
4th · 1:28LV +6% win prob(1:28) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass deep right intended for 19-D.Turner INTERCEPTED by 39-J.McCollough [8-J.Verse] at LV 34. 39-J.McCollough to LV 32 for 2 yards.
1st · 5:15LV +6% win prob(5:15) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass incomplete deep right. PENALTY on LV-12-A.O'Connell, Intentional Grounding, 11 yards, enforced at LV 31.
Raiderscategory by categoryRams
Raiders3
Rams0
