2024 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 20, 2024 · SoFi Stadium

Las Vegas Raiders

Los Angeles RamsWinner

LA -7 no coverU 43 ✓DomeRams closed -7, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Los Angeles Rams 20–15. Biggest swing: Q2 1:23, LV +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 1:23LV 3 — LA 13LV ball · 2nd & 10LA 77%

(1:23) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at LV 37 for -7 yards (14-C.Durant). FUMBLES (14-C.Durant) [14-C.Durant], RECOVERED by LA-3-K.Curl at LV 33. 3-K.Curl for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 1:23LV +16% win prob(1:23) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at LV 37 for -7 yards (14-C.Durant). FUMBLES (14-C.Durant) [14-C.Durant], RECOVERED by LA-3-K.Curl at LV 33. 3-K.Curl for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 0:20LA +10% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 89-B.Bowers pushed ob at LA 25 for 25 yards (39-J.McCollough).
Q3 · 1:15LV +9% win prob(1:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 5-T.Atwell INTERCEPTED by 39-N.Hobbs (41-R.Spillane) at LA 49. 39-N.Hobbs to LA 14 for 35 yards (23-K.Williams).
Q2 · 4:57LV +8% win prob(4:57) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short left intended for 89-B.Bowers INTERCEPTED by 14-C.Durant [8-J.Verse] at LV 47. 14-C.Durant to LV 47 for no gain (89-B.Bowers). Penalty on LV, Illegal Formation, declined.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 14:08LV Field goal
(14:08) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: LV 3 — LA 0
Q2 · 3:05LA Touchdown
(3:05) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams left guard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 3 — LA 7
Q2 · 1:23LA Touchdown
(1:23) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at LV 37 for -7 yards (14-C.Durant). FUMBLES (14-C.Durant) [14-C.Durant], RECOVERED by LA-3-K.Curl at LV 33. 3-K.Curl for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 3 — LA 14
Q2 · 0:04LV Field goal
(:04) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: LV 6 — LA 14
Q3 · 7:33LA Touchdown
(7:33) 23-K.Williams left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: LV 6 — LA 20
Q3 · 2:29LV Field goal
(2:29) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: LV 9 — LA 20
Q4 · 14:55LV Field goal
(14:55) 2-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: LV 12 — LA 20
Q4 · 2:50LV Field goal
(2:50) 2-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: LV 15 — LA 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Rams
Offensive plays	75	50
Total yards	317 (edge)	261
Yards per play	4.2	5.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.34	-0.29 (edge)
Success rate	33%	42% (edge)
Dropback rate	61%	48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.53	-0.30 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04 (edge)	-0.27
Third downs	3/15	2/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	4	1 (edge)

Raiders outgained Rams 317–261 but lost the turnover battle 4–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

14/23, 154 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-7.3 expected points added · -9.6% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Gardner MinshewQB

15/34, 154 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

-23.2 expected points added · -14.3% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Alexander MattisonRB

23 att, 92 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

21 att, 76 yds, 2 TD

-8.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Brock BowersTE

10/14 for 93 yds, 0 TD

40% of team targets · 0.4 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Tyler JohnsonWR

4/7 for 57 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 0.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 30	8	19	2:53	Punt
2	LA	LA 11	8	41	3:31	Punt
3	LV	LV 8	8	43	4:04	Punt
4	LA	LA 24	5	-4	1:59	Punt
5	LV	LV 24	9	56	3:29	Field goal +3
6	LA	LA 30	7	21	3:12	Turnover on downs
7	LV	LV 49	4	3	1:39	Punt
8	LA	LA 20	4	9	2:09	Punt
9	LV	LV 28	4	18	2:17	Interception
10	LA	LV 47	5	47	1:47	Touchdown +7
11	LV	LV 30	6	3	1:46	Defensive touchdown
12	LV	LV 30	9	46	1:14	Field goal +3
13	LA	LA 30	5	6	1:03	Punt
14	LV	LV 10	4	2	1:31	Punt
15	LA	LA 40	6	16	3:05	Punt
16	LV	LV 20	3	4	0:50	Interception
17	LA	LV 31	3	26	1:01	Touchdown +6
18	LV	LV 30	11	42	5:05	Field goal +3
19	LA	LA 30	5	17	1:19	Interception
20	LV	LA 14	4	10	1:14	Field goal +3
21	LA	LA 30	10	59	4:41	Missed field goal
22	LV	LV 25	15	71	7:25	Field goal +3
23	LA	LA 30	6	23	1:07	Punt
24	LV	LV 11	3	0	0:21	Interception
25	LA	LV 32	2	0	1:18	End of game

7 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 71 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Gardner Minshew	15/34	154	0	3	2	-23.2
Aidan O'Connell	6/10	52	0	0	0	-1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alexander Mattison	23	92	4.0	-1.6
Zamir White	3	13	4.3	-0.2
Tre Tucker	1	11	11.0	1.0
D.J. Turner	1	4	4.0	-0.3
Gardner Minshew	1	2	2.0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Brock Bowers	10	14	93	40%	0.4
Tre Tucker	3	8	36	23%	-2.4
Alexander Mattison	3	3	31	9%	1.4
Harrison Bryant	2	2	19	6%	2.2
Zamir White	1	1	14	3%	0.9
D.J. Turner	2	7	13	20%	-10.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Trevon Moehrig	4	2	0.0	0	1
Isaiah Pola-Mao	5	1	0.0	0	0
Nate Hobbs	5	0	0.0	1	1
Adam Butler	3	2	0.0	0	0
Divine Deablo	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jakorian Bennett	3	1	0.0	0	0
Robert Spillane	2	2	0.0	0	1
Maxx Crosby	1	2	1.0	0	1
K'Lavon Chaisson	1	1	0.0	0	0
Jack Jones	1	1	0.0	0	0

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	14/23	154	0	1	1	-7.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kyren Williams	21	76	3.6	2	-8.7
Xavier Smith	2	30	15.0	0	1.8
Blake Corum	3	11	3.7	0	-0.3
Matthew Stafford	2	-2	-1.0	0	-2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Johnson	4	7	57	32%	0.5
Tutu Atwell	6	9	51	41%	-7.8
Colby Parkinson	2	2	32	9%	2.5
Demarcus Robinson	1	3	9	14%	-0.6
Hunter Long	1	1	5	5%	0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Quentin Lake	6	2	0.0	0	0
Troy Reeder	3	4	0.0	0	0
Byron Young	4	2	0.0	0	0
Christian Rozeboom	2	4	0.0	0	0
Kamren Curl	6	0	0.0	0	1
Michael Hoecht	2	3	1.0	0	1
Jared Verse	2	2	0.0	0	0
Bobby Brown	1	2	0.0	0	0
Kobie Turner	1	2	0.0	0	0
Cobie Durant	2	0	1.0	1	2

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -7
Closing total: 43
LV moneyline: +280
LA moneyline: -355

Rams closed -7, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 43; the game landed 35 — under by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: LV 7 days · LA 14 days
Coaches: Antonio Pierce vs Sean McVay