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2024 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 20, 2024 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Miami Dolphins

10

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

16

IND -3 ✓U 44 ✓Dome

Indianapolis Colts 16–10. Biggest swing: Q3 11:48, MIA +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3IND ↑MIA ↓
Q3 · 11:48MIA 10 — IND 3MIA ball · 1st & 10MIA 75%

(11:48) 31-R.Mostert left tackle to MIA 45 for 7 yards (50-S.Olubi; 32-J.Blackmon). FUMBLES (50-S.Olubi), RECOVERED by IND-50-S.Olubi at MIA 46. 50-S.Olubi to MIA 28 for 18 yards (89-J.Hill; 17-J.Waddle).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 11:48MIA +19% win prob(11:48) 31-R.Mostert left tackle to MIA 45 for 7 yards (50-S.Olubi; 32-J.Blackmon). FUMBLES (50-S.Olubi), RECOVERED by IND-50-S.Olubi at MIA 46. 50-S.Olubi to MIA 28 for 18 yards (89-J.Hill; 17-J.Waddle).
  2. Q4 · 5:19MIA +19% win prob(5:19) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
  3. Q3 · 3:02MIA +19% win prob(3:02) 30-A.Ingold left guard to IND 15 for -2 yards (41-G.Stuard, 44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.Franklin), touched at IND 14, RECOVERED by IND-96-T.Bryan at IND 14.
  4. Q1 · 0:23MIA +16% win prob(:23) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 12, touched at MIA 11, RECOVERED by MIA-92-Z.Sieler at MIA 16.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:02MIA Touchdown

    (6:02) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley pass short left to 9-J.Smith for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 7 — IND 0
  2. Q2 · 0:25MIA Field goal

    (:25) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: MIA 10 — IND 0
  3. Q2 · 0:05IND Field goal

    (:05) 7-M.Gay 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: MIA 10 — IND 3
  4. Q3 · 9:11IND Touchdown

    (9:11) (Shotgun) 31-T.Goodson left guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 10 — IND 10
  5. Q4 · 8:44IND Field goal

    (8:44) 7-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: MIA 10 — IND 13
  6. Q4 · 1:55IND Field goal

    (1:55) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: MIA 10 — IND 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricDolphinsColts
Offensive plays6760
Total yards337 (edge)285
Yards per play5.0 (edge)4.8
Expected points added / play-0.26-0.19 (edge)
Success rate43% (edge)35%
Dropback rate46%48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.07 (edge)-0.16
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.42-0.23 (edge)
Third downs6/14 (edge)4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)77
First downs gained on snaps18 (edge)16
Sacks taken20 (edge)
Turnovers22

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.26.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Anthony RichardsonQB

10/24, 129 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-5.3 expected points added · -18.7% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tyler HuntleyQB

7/13, 87 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-2.9 expected points added · -5.0% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Devon AchaneRB

15 att, 77 yds, 0 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Anthony RichardsonQB

14 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

-6.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Jonnu SmithTE

7/7 for 96 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 10.9 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

3/5 for 63 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 2.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 30541:28Punt
2MIAMIA 27441:24Punt
3INDIND 10400:21Punt
4MIAMIA 4212535:51Touchdown +7
5INDIND 1712705:38Fumble
6MIAMIA 168443:44Punt
7INDIND 22461:34Punt
8MIAMIA 279284:06Punt
9INDIND 316193:02Punt
10MIAMIA 209652:30Field goal +3
11INDIND 305360:22Field goal +3
12MIAMIA 306201:53Punt
13INDIND 15451:19Punt
14MIAMIA 38170:15Fumble
15INDMIA 285332:25Touchdown +7
16MIAMIA 305-11:39Punt
17INDIND 15411:02Fumble
18MIAMIA 456413:31Fumble
19INDIND 14461:31Punt
20MIAMIA 294-21:07Punt
21INDIND 2712696:37Field goal +3
22MIAMIA 237413:27Missed field goal
23INDIND 449363:23Field goal +3
24MIAMIA 3010371:44Turnover on downs
25INDIND 33100:07End of game

6 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 70 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a fumble.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tyler Huntley7/1387102-2.9
Tim Boyle8/13740000.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Devon Achane15775.10-0.7
Raheem Mostert11504.50-8.1
Jaylen Wright5336.600.8
Tyler Huntley5204.000.6
Tyreek Hill155.00-0.0
Tim Boyle144.000.3
Alec Ingold2-1-0.50-7.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jonnu Smith7796132%10.9
Alec Ingold112505%1.2
Jaylen Waddle121109%0.9
Malik Washington239014%-2.6
Devon Achane238014%-1.4
Tyreek Hill12809%-2.0
Julian Hill12409%-1.1
Odell Beckham02009%-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordan Poyer620.000
Jordyn Brooks420.001
Kendall Fuller510.001
Jalen Ramsey220.000
Marcus Maye130.000
Zach Sieler310.000
Calais Campbell400.000
David Long Jr.120.000
Da'Shawn Hand300.000
Chop Robinson110.000

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Anthony Richardson10/24129000-5.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Anthony Richardson14564.00-6.6
Tyler Goodson14513.61-1.0
Trey Sermon8364.500.3
Ashton Dulin11212.000.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Michael Pittman3563023%2.1
Adonai Mitchell2330014%0.3
Alec Pierce2515023%-0.9
Trey Sermon111305%0.6
Will Mallory11505%-0.0
Josh Downs133014%-3.7
Andrew Ogletree01005%-0.6
Kylen Granson02009%-1.4
Mo Alie-Cox01005%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Grant Stuard580.000
Zaire Franklin2110.000
Nick Cross440.000
Julian Blackmon340.000
Jaylon Jones240.001
Kenny Moore230.001
Segun Olubi130.000
Grover Stewart130.000
Laiatu Latu211.000
Jaylon Carlies301.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
IND -3
Closing total
44
MIA moneyline
+130
IND moneyline
-155

Colts closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 44; the game landed 26 — under by 18.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
MIA 14 days · IND 7 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs Shane Steichen