For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:16 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 20, 2024 · Lucas Oil Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 7
It turned at Q3 11:48, 1st and 10, on Raheem Mostert — 19.3 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 11:48 · 1st and 10
Raheem Mostert
Colts
(11:48) 31-R.Mostert left tackle to MIA 45 for 7 yards (50-S.Olubi; 32-J.Blackmon). FUMBLES (50-S.Olubi), RECOVERED by IND-50-S.Olubi at MIA 46. 50-S.Olubi to MIA 28 for 18 yards (89-J.Hill; 17-J.Waddle).
Indianapolis Colts 16–10. Biggest swing: Q3 11:48, Colts +19.3% win probability on one snap.
19.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Colts won this one — -0.23 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.42 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 14 on third down, against Colts at 4 of 13 on third down.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
(11:48) 31-R.Mostert left tackle to MIA 45 for 7 yards (50-S.Olubi; 32-J.Blackmon). FUMBLES (50-S.Olubi), RECOVERED by IND-50-S.Olubi at MIA 46. 50-S.Olubi to MIA 28 for 18 yards (89-J.Hill; 17-J.Waddle).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Matt Gay's 22-yard field goal with 8:44 left in the 4th put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Matt Gay22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.RhodesLead never changed again+310–136 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Dolphinscategory by categoryColts
Dolphins ahead 5–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 67 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Colts’s 60 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 3, Colts 4.
Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIA's blitz rate sent, 62.1%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 7 — 3.4 points clear of the next team along.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points.
MIA's pass rate over expected, −19.5 pts, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 7 — 4.7 points clear of the next team along.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
MIA's early-down pass rate, 34.6%, is past their previous low of 42.9% in week 5 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points.
IND's blitz rate sent, 3.2%, is past their previous low of 14.3% in week 3 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Dolphins-19.5 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −17.2 vs their -2.3 pts, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−1.68× that swing) · 67 snaps
Colts-11.4 ptsright on their number · −2.7 vs their -8.7 pts, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 84%
Tendencies room →Dolphins34.6%leaned — ran early · −20.9 vs their 55.5%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−1.90× that swing) · 52 early downs
Colts42.6%inside their normal wobble · −8.3 vs their 50.8%, and they swing ±13.0 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 54%
Tendencies room →Dolphins22.6%right on their number · −2.3 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Colts41.4%leaned — faked the run · +11.4 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+1.26× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 116%
Fourth Down room →Dolphins33.3%right on their number · −10.1 vs their 43.5%, and they swing ±28.3 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Colts0.0%leaned — took the kick · −41.7 vs their 41.7%, and they swing ±27.3 week to week (−1.52× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 67%
Tendencies room →Dolphins62.1%off script — sent pressure · +28.1 vs their 34.0%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (+2.34× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Colts3.2%leaned — sat back · −16.8 vs their 20.0%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−1.62× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 32%
Tendencies room →Dolphins13.8%right on their number · +1.2 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Colts16.1%right on their number · +3.7 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
MIA's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 62.1%, 28.1 points above their season mean of 34.0% and 2.3 times their own 12.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · IND
10/24, 129 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-5.3 expected points added · -18.7% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
7/13, 87 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-2.9 expected points added · -5.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Jonnu Smith banked 11.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonnu SmithTE · Alpha Receiver | 22.6 | +11.4 | 49% | 69% | 32% | 21% | 7/7, 96 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler GoodsonRB · Committee Back | 11.1 | +3.0 | 48% | 28% | 0% | — | 14 car, 51 yd, 1 TD |
| Devon AchaneRB · Committee Back | 10.5 | −1.2 | 58% | 59% | 14% | 4% | 15 car, 77 yd · 2/3, 8 yd |
| Tyler HuntleyQB · Starter QB | 9.5 | +1.1 | 67% | — | 0% | — | 7/13, 87 yd, 1 TD · 5 car, 20 yd |
| Michael PittmanWR · Featured Receiver | 9.3 | +0.4 | 89% | 79% | 23% | 37% | 3/5, 63 yd |
| Anthony RichardsonQB · Starter QB | 8.8 | −10.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 10/24, 129 yd · 14 car, 56 yd |
| Trey SermonRB | 5.9 | +0.3 | 52% | 59% | 5% | 0% | 8 car, 36 yd · 1/1, 13 yd |
| Adonai MitchellWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | +0.3 | 23% | 21% | 14% | 16% | 2/3, 30 yd |
| Alec PierceWR · Featured Receiver | 3.5 | −3.5 | 79% | 66% | 23% | 25% | 2/5, 15 yd |
| Tim BoyleQB | 3.4 | −0.8 | 33% | — | 0% | — | 8/13, 74 yd · 1 car, 4 yd |
| Jaylen WrightRB | 3.3 | +0.9 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Raheem MostertRB | 3.0 | −4.8 | 33% | 25% | 0% | — | 11 car, 50 yd |
| Malik WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −1.3 | 36% | 44% | 14% | 10% | 2/3, 9 yd |
| Tyreek HillWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −2.4 | 90% | 84% | 9% | 18% | 1 car, 5 yd · 1/2, 8 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −1.0 | 86% | 81% | 9% | 7% | 1/2, 11 yd |
| Will MalloryTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Alec IngoldRB | 1.4 | −1.4 | 39% | 16% | 5% | 6% | 2 car, -1 yd · 1/1, 25 yd |
| Julian HillTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −1.8 | 52% | 25% | 9% | 7% | 1/2, 4 yd |
| Josh DownsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −4.1 | 61% | 52% | 14% | 2% | 1/3, 3 yd |
| Ashton DulinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | +0.2 | 24% | 10% | 0% | — | 1 car, 12 yd |
| Andrew OgletreeTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 40% | 28% | 5% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.0 | 23% | 17% | 9% | 11% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 53% | 45% | 5% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Odell BeckhamWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.2 | 16% | 22% | 9% | 5% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 25% | 6% | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:19) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Q4 5:19 · Dolphins · 4th & 1 at IND 36 · gained nothing · -3.52 EP · −18.9% win probability
163 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 177 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 75 yards from the IND 17 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Dolphins6
Colts0Dolphins7Colts0How the play was built
A man in motion.
Dolphins10Colts0Dolphins10Colts3How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Dolphins10Colts9Dolphins10Colts10How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Dolphins10Colts13Dolphins10Colts16How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Dolphins at Colts, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 7/13 | 87 | 1 | 0 | 2 | −2.9 |
| Tim Boyle | 8/13 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Achane | 15 | 77 | 5.1 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Raheem Mostert | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 | −8.1 |
| Jaylen Wright |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonnu Smith | 7 | 7 | 96 | 1 | 32% | +10.9 |
| Alec Ingold | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 5% | +1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Poyer | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordyn Brooks | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kendall Fuller | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Ramsey |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 10/24 | 129 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −5.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_07_MIA_IND
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Colts closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 44; the game landed 26 — under by 18.0.
Conditions and crew
| 5 |
| 33 |
| 6.6 |
| 0 |
| +0.8 |
| Tyler Huntley | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Tim Boyle | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Alec Ingold | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | −7.9 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 9% | +0.9 |
| Malik Washington | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 14% | −2.6 |
| Devon Achane | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 14% | −1.4 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 9% | −2.0 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9% | −1.1 |
| Odell Beckham | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −2.1 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Marcus Maye | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Sieler | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calais Campbell | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Long Jr. | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Da'Shawn Hand | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chop Robinson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 |
| 56 |
| 4.0 |
| 0 |
| −6.6 |
| Tyler Goodson | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 1 | −1.0 |
| Trey Sermon | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 23% | +2.1 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 14% | +0.3 |
| Alec Pierce | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 23% | −0.9 |
| Trey Sermon | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 5% | +0.6 |
| Will Mallory | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5% | −0.0 |
| Josh Downs | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14% | −3.7 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| Kylen Granson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −1.4 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Stuard | 5 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaire Franklin | 2 | 11 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Cross | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Blackmon | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Jones | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kenny Moore | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Segun Olubi | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grover Stewart | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Laiatu Latu | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Carlies | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
