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2024 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 20, 2024 · Wembley Stadium

New England Patriots

16

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

32

JAX -6.5 ✓O 42 ✓

Jacksonville Jaguars 32–16. Biggest swing: Q2 6:31, JAX +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3JAX ↑NE ↓
Q2 · 6:31NE 10 — JAX 7JAX ball · 2nd & 7JAX 60%

(6:31) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 7-B.Thomas to NE 21 for 58 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 6:31JAX +12% win prob(6:31) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 7-B.Thomas to NE 21 for 58 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).
  2. Q2 · 1:55NE +9% win prob(1:55) 17-B.Baringer punts 66 yards to JAX 4, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-P.Washington for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q1 · 8:40JAX +8% win prob(8:40) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 39-J.Hasty for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q2 · 9:25JAX +8% win prob(9:25) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:40NE Touchdown

    (8:40) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 39-J.Hasty for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NE 7 — JAX 0
  2. Q2 · 13:35NE Field goal

    (13:35) 13-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

    Score after this play: NE 10 — JAX 0
  3. Q2 · 9:25JAX Touchdown

    (9:25) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NE 10 — JAX 7
  4. Q2 · 3:35JAX Touchdown

    (3:35) (Shotgun) 4-T.Bigsby right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NE 10 — JAX 14
  5. Q2 · 1:55JAX Touchdown

    (1:55) 17-B.Baringer punts 66 yards to JAX 4, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-P.Washington for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: NE 10 — JAX 20
  6. Q2 · 1:34JAX Two-point

    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 16-T.Lawrence pass to 7-B.Thomas is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.

    Score after this play: NE 10 — JAX 22
  7. Q3 · 9:45JAX Field goal

    (9:45) 39-C.Little 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: NE 10 — JAX 25
  8. Q4 · 8:27NE Touchdown

    (8:27) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 2-K.Osborn for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: NE 16 — JAX 25
  9. Q4 · 1:45JAX Touchdown

    (1:45) 4-T.Bigsby left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NE 16 — JAX 32

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPatriotsJaguars
Offensive plays5560
Total yards295366 (edge)
Yards per play5.46.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.070.24 (edge)
Success rate33%53% (edge)
Dropback rate78%37%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.190.61 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.340.03 (edge)
Third downs6/126/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)59 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1623 (edge)
Sacks taken20 (edge)
Turnovers00

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Drake MayeQB

26/37, 276 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.9 expected points added · +5.2% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

15/20, 193 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

11.2 expected points added · +4.6% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Tank BigsbyRB

26 att, 118 yds, 2 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

D'Ernest JohnsonRB

9 att, 38 yds, 0 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Hunter HenryTE

8/9 for 92 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Brian ThomasWR

5/5 for 89 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 11.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1NENE 3213736:28Touchdown +7
2JAXJAX 307253:30Punt
3NENE 1512486:31Field goal +3
4JAXJAX 3210684:10Touchdown +7
5NENE 30532:12Punt
6JAXJAX 187823:37Touchdown +7
7NENE 30551:58Defensive touchdown
8NENE 30570:55Punt
9JAXJAX 6160:39End of half
10JAXJAX 3013635:18Field goal +3
11NENE 307142:08Punt
12JAXJAX 10178411:24Turnover on downs
13NENE 610992:48Touchdown +6
14JAXJAX 3010264:24Punt
15NENE 12582:04Turnover on downs
16JAXNE 104100:13Touchdown +7
17NENE 305381:41End of game

7 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 99 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Drake Maye26/372762026.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Drake Maye3186.001.2
Rhamondre Stevenson7182.60-1.3
Antonio Gibson341.30-1.3
Jamycal Hasty2-2-1.00-1.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Hunter Henry8992025%3.1
Jamycal Hasty5549114%3.9
Kayshon Boutte123306%1.6
Austin Hooper4532014%1.2
K.J. Osborn232618%2.4
Kendrick Bourne121406%-0.4
Demario Douglas231408%1.4
Antonio Gibson11903%0.8
Rhamondre Stevenson23708%-1.4
Ja'Lynn Polk03008%-3.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kyle Dugger920.001
Christian Elliss450.000
Jahlani Tavai160.000
Anfernee Jennings410.000
Marte Mapu320.000
Christian Gonzalez320.000
Jaquelin Roy310.000
Keion White220.000
Raekwon McMillan120.000
Jonathan Jones110.000

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence15/2019310011.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tank Bigsby261184.521.8
D'Ernest Johnson9384.200.1
Trevor Lawrence2136.502.5
Brian Thomas221.00-1.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Brian Thomas5589125%11.2
Evan Engram5535025%1.2
D'Ernest Johnson3432020%0.2
Christian Kirk1324015%-1.1
Gabe Davis1213010%0.2
Tank Bigsby01005%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Devin Lloyd561.000
Ventrell Miller640.000
Andre Cisco140.001
Davon Hamilton140.000
Tyson Campbell120.001
Travon Walker211.000
Yasir Abdullah300.000
Darnell Savage210.000
Jarrian Jones200.001
Arik Armstead110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
JAX -6.5
Closing total
42
NE moneyline
+240
JAX moneyline
-298

Jaguars closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Total closed 42; the game landed 48 — over by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Wembley Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
63°F, wind 12 mph
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
NE 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches
Jerod Mayo vs Doug Pederson