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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 20, 2024 · Wembley Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 7
It turned at Q2 6:31, 2nd and 7, on Brian Thomas — 12.1 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Jacksonville Jaguars 32–16. Biggest swing: Q2 6:31, Jaguars +12.1% win probability on one snap. Played in 19.4 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 6:31 · 2nd and 7
Brian Thomas
Jaguars
(6:31) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 7-B.Thomas to NE 21 for 58 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).
12.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Jaguars won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.34 expected points per carry.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jaguars won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Patriots at 5 chunk plays.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.61 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at +0.19 expected points per dropback.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(6:31) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 7-B.Thomas to NE 21 for 58 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tank Bigsby's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 3:35 left in the 2nd put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryJaguars
Jaguars ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.61 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 55 snaps at a 78% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 60 at 37%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 2, Jaguars 5.
Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
JAX's play-action rate, 54.5%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 7 — 13.2 points clear of the next team along.
22 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points. · +3.1σ from their own normal
JAX's early-down pass rate, 31.3%, is past their previous low of 41.0% in week 1 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points. · −2.5σ from their own normal
JAX's pass rate over expected, −12.9 pts, is past their previous low of −8.0 pts in week 1 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.8 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
NE's early-down pass rate, 73.2%, is past their previous high of 64.7% in week 3 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
NE's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 8.6% in week 1 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
22 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
NE's pass rate over expected, +4.4 pts, is past their previous high of −3.8 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 10 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots4.4 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +7.5 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+1.41× that swing) · 54 snaps
Jaguars-12.9 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.3 vs their -3.6 pts, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−1.94× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 85%
Tendencies room →Patriots73.2%leaned — passed early · +16.8 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (+1.51× that swing) · 41 early downs
Jaguars31.3%off script — ran early · −25.6 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−2.50× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 59%
Tendencies room →Patriots20.9%inside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.77× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Jaguars54.5%off script — faked the run · +31.9 vs their 22.6%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+3.07× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -54% to 118%
Fourth Down room →Patriots—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 32.2%.
Jaguars—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 69%
Tendencies room →Patriots18.2%leaned — sat back · −17.0 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±13.1 week to week (−1.30× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Jaguars11.6%right on their number · −3.4 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 28%
Tendencies room →Patriots0.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.2 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Jaguars7.0%inside their normal wobble · −3.0 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
JAX's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 54.5%, 31.9 points above their season mean of 22.6% and 3.1 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
26/37, 276 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
6.9 expected points added · +5.2% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
15/20, 193 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
11.2 expected points added · +4.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Brian Thomas banked 8.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tank BigsbyRB · Bell Cow Back | 23.8 | +2.2 | 66% | 45% | 5% | 0% | 26 car, 118 yd, 2 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Brian ThomasWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.1 | +8.7 | 66% | 86% | 25% | 58% | 2 car, 2 yd · 5/5, 89 yd, 1 TD |
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 20.8 | +7.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/37, 276 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 18 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Alpha Receiver | 17.2 | +4.4 | 87% | 88% | 25% | 36% | 8/9, 92 yd |
| Jamycal HastyRB · Receiving Back | 15.7 | +7.6 | 33% | 40% | 14% | 0% | 2 car, -2 yd · 5/5, 49 yd, 1 TD |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 15.0 | +1.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/20, 193 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 13 yd |
| K.J. OsbornWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.6 | +5.9 | 37% | 47% | 8% | 7% | 2/3, 26 yd, 1 TD |
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB · Committee Back | 10.0 | −2.6 | 34% | 55% | 20% | 0% | 9 car, 38 yd · 3/4, 32 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Alpha Receiver | 8.5 | +1.0 | 56% | 82% | 25% | 10% | 5/5, 35 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | −0.7 | 38% | 37% | 14% | 12% | 4/5, 32 yd |
| Parker WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | — | 34% | 36% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB | 4.5 | −2.7 | 50% | 47% | 8% | 2% | 7 car, 18 yd · 2/3, 7 yd |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | +1.1 | 83% | 88% | 6% | 16% | 1/2, 33 yd |
| Christian KirkWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −3.5 | 57% | 77% | 15% | 27% | 1/3, 24 yd |
| Demario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −0.5 | 33% | 23% | 8% | 4% | 2/3, 14 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −0.5 | 62% | 60% | 6% | 8% | 1/2, 14 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 2.3 | −2.9 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Antonio GibsonRB | 2.3 | −0.5 | 17% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 3 car, 4 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Ja'Lynn PolkWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.5 | 57% | 53% | 8% | 18% | 0/3, 0 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:31) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 7-B.Thomas to NE 21 for 58 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).
Q2 6:31 · Jaguars · 2nd & 7 at JAX 21 · gained 58 · +4.21 EP · +13.4% win probability
148 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 160 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 155. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 94 yards from the NE 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots6
Jaguars0Patriots7Jaguars0Patriots10Jaguars0Patriots10Jaguars6Patriots10Jaguars7How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Patriots10Jaguars13Patriots10Jaguars14Patriots10Jaguars20Patriots10Jaguars22Patriots10Jaguars25Patriots16Jaguars25Patriots16Jaguars31Patriots16Jaguars32Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Jaguars, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 26/37 | 276 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +6.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Antonio Gibson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 8 | 9 | 92 | 0 | 25% | +3.1 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 5 | 5 | 49 | 1 | 14% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Dugger | 9 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Elliss | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahlani Tavai |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 15/20 | 193 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +11.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_07_NE_JAX
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Jaguars closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 16.
Total closed 42; the game landed 48 — over by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 19.4 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 1.3 |
| 0 |
| −1.3 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.5 |
| +3.9 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 1 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 6% | +1.6 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 14% | +1.2 |
| K.J. Osborn | 2 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 8% | +2.4 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6% | −0.4 |
| Demario Douglas | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 8% | +1.4 |
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 8% | −1.4 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −3.1 |
| 1 |
| 6 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marte Mapu | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Gonzalez | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaquelin Roy | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keion White | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Raekwon McMillan | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Jones | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 26 | 118 | 4.5 | 2 | +1.8 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | +2.5 |
| Brian Thomas | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas | 5 | 5 | 89 | 1 | 25% | +11.2 |
| Evan Engram | 5 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 25% | +1.2 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 20% | +0.2 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 15% | −1.1 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 10% | +0.2 |
| Tank Bigsby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Lloyd | 5 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ventrell Miller | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Cisco | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Davon Hamilton | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Campbell | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Travon Walker | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yasir Abdullah | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Savage | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarrian Jones | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Arik Armstead | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
