For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:29 AM ET · 16 to play
New England Patriots 16 at Jacksonville Jaguars 32. Final.
Jaguars -6.5 ✓O 42 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 7
Jacksonville Jaguars 32, Patriots 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 6:31, 2nd and 7, on Brian Thomas — 12.1 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 6:31 · 2nd and 7
Brian Thomas
Jaguars
(6:31) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 7-B.Thomas to NE 21 for 58 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).
19.4 mph wind
Jaguars closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 16.
Jacksonville Jaguars 32–16. Biggest swing: Q2 6:31, Jaguars +12.1% win probability on one snap. Played in 19.4 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
12.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jamycal HastyPatriotsQ1 8:40(8:40) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 39-J.Hasty for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.8pts
Unnamed on the sheetJaguarsQ2 1:55(1:55) 17-B.Baringer punts 66 yards to JAX 4, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-P.Washington for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.3pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Jaguars won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.34 expected points per carry.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jaguars won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Patriots at 5 chunk plays.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.61 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at +0.19 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Patriots150 of 160 plays carry both curves
(6:31) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 7-B.Thomas to NE 21 for 58 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).
Swing +12.1 for JaguarsExpected points +4.21 for JaguarsThe model had Patriots 13 points higher than the market did.play 57
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 6:31JAX +12% win prob(6:31) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 7-B.Thomas to NE 21 for 58 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).
2nd · 1:55NE +9% win prob(1:55) 17-B.Baringer punts 66 yards to JAX 4, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-P.Washington for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:40JAX +8% win prob(8:40) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 39-J.Hasty for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:25JAX +8% win prob(9:25) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:17JAX +7% win prob(4:17) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles up the middle to NE 36 for 15 yards (6-D.Savage).
1st · 5:11NE +7% win prob(5:11) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to NE 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 25-M.Jones to NE 15 for 8 yards (51-V.Miller).
2nd · 4:19
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tank Bigsby's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 3:35 left in the 2nd put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Jaguars ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.61 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Patriots: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.24Jaguars: +0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.19Patriots: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.61Jaguars: +0.61 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.34Patriots: −0.34 expected points added per play
+0.03Jaguars: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 55 snaps at a 78% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 60 at 37%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 2, Jaguars 5.
NoteJaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
JAX's play-action rate, 54.5%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 7 — 13.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 34.3% in week 4.
3.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.5-swing turn from week 6.
22 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
NE's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 8.6% in week 1 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
22 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
high through week 7Against their seasonOver Expected
NE's pass rate over expected, +4.4 pts, is past their previous high of −3.8 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 6.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 10 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.2 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Jaguars7.0%
inside their normal wobble · −3.0 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteJAX's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 54.5%, 31.9 points above their season mean of 22.6% and 3.1 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
71Mike OnwenuG · Every snap100%60 snaps
75Demontrey JacobsT · Every snap100%60 snaps
74Mike JordanG · Every snap100%60 snaps
77Ben BrownG · Every snap100%60 snaps
10Drake MayeQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
85Hunter HenryTE · Full-time87%52 snaps
9Kayshon BoutteWR · Full-time83%50 snaps
62Sidy SowG · Heavy rotation68%41 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Heavy rotation62%37 snaps
1Ja'Lynn PolkWR · Heavy rotation57%34 snaps
38Rhamondre StevensonRB · Heavy rotation50%30 snaps
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Lawrence pass+13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(6:31) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 7-B.Thomas to NE 21 for 58 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).
Q2 6:31 · Jaguars · 2nd & 7 at JAX 21 · gained 58 · +4.21 EP · +13.4% win probability
148 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 160 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 155. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 94 yards from the NE 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
160 of 160 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
160
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
46%
Yards
661
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.0477%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.2848%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.4626%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.3967%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8-0.430%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Patriots6Jaguars0
Patriots7Jaguars0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Patriots 32 to the Jaguars 16
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Patriots 45
The period ended12 plays, from the Patriots 15 to the Jaguars 30
2nd quarter45 plays
Patriots10Jaguars0
Field goal4 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 22
Patriots10Jaguars6
Patriots10Jaguars7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jaguars 32 to the Patriots 6
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 42
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Patriots10Jaguars13
Patriots10Jaguars14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jaguars 18 to the Patriots 1
Patriots10Jaguars20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 35
Patriots10Jaguars22
The period ended7 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 37
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Patriots10Jaguars25
Field goal14 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Patriots 3
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 44
The period ended12 plays, from the Jaguars 10 to the Patriots 28
4th quarter48 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Patriots 23 to the Patriots 6
Patriots16Jaguars25
Touchdown11 plays, from the Patriots 6 to the Jaguars 17
Punt11 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Patriots 44
The period ended7 plays, from the Patriots 12 to the Patriots 34
Patriots16Jaguars31
Patriots16Jaguars32
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 10 to the Patriots 4
The period ended7 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Jaguars 32
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
