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2024 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 20, 2024 · Acrisure Stadium

New York Jets

15

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

37

NYJ -3 upsetO 40 ✓

Pittsburgh Steelers 37–15 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 7:39, NYJ +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3PIT ↑NYJ ↓
Q3 · 7:39NYJ 15 — PIT 16NYJ ball · 2nd & 10NYJ 55%

(7:39) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left intended for 5-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 31-B.Bishop at NYJ 42. 31-B.Bishop to NYJ 1 for 41 yards (17-D.Adams). NYJ-65-X.Newman-Johnson was injured during the play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 7:39NYJ +23% win prob(7:39) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left intended for 5-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 31-B.Bishop at NYJ 42. 31-B.Bishop to NYJ 1 for 41 yards (17-D.Adams). NYJ-65-X.Newman-Johnson was injured during the play.
  2. Q3 · 12:02PIT +12% win prob(12:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-G.Pickens to NYJ 39 for 37 yards (23-I.Oliver).
  3. Q2 · 0:32PIT +12% win prob(:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-G.Pickens for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q3 · 3:36PIT +11% win prob(3:36) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-M.Williams to PIT 17 for 15 yards (25-D.Elliott) [99-L.Ogunjobi].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:37PIT Field goal

    (11:37) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: NYJ 0 — PIT 3
  2. Q1 · 2:33NYJ Touchdown

    (2:33) (Shotgun) 20-B.Hall left tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 7 — PIT 3
  3. Q2 · 8:24PIT Field goal

    (8:24) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: NYJ 7 — PIT 6
  4. Q2 · 5:34NYJ Touchdown

    (5:34) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 83-T.Conklin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 15 — PIT 6
  5. Q2 · 0:32PIT Touchdown

    (:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-G.Pickens for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 15 — PIT 13
  6. Q3 · 7:51PIT Field goal

    (7:51) 9-C.Boswell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: NYJ 15 — PIT 16
  7. Q3 · 7:22PIT Touchdown

    (7:22) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 15 — PIT 23
  8. Q4 · 12:13PIT Touchdown

    (12:13) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 11-V.Jefferson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 15 — PIT 30
  9. Q4 · 0:30PIT Touchdown

    (:30) 22-N.Harris left guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 15 — PIT 37

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJetsSteelers
Offensive plays5666
Total yards325409 (edge)
Yards per play5.86.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.020.16 (edge)
Success rate45% (edge)38%
Dropback rate73%47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.000.27 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.090.06 (edge)
Third downs3/105/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)69 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1720 (edge)
Sacks taken11
Turnovers20 (edge)

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Aaron RodgersQB

24/39, 276 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

0.1 expected points added · -5.4% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Russell WilsonQB

16/29, 264 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.8 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

21 att, 102 yds, 1 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Jaylen WarrenRB

12 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

George PickensWR

5/9 for 111 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 7.7 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Breece HallRB

6/9 for 103 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1PITPIT 308423:27Field goal +3
2NYJNYJ 225-51:50Punt
3PITPIT 36491:35Punt
4NYJNYJ 1810675:41Touchdown +7
5PITPIT 305-20:49Punt
6NYJNYJ 214-11:01Punt
7PITPIT 34420:52Punt
8NYJNYJ 134152:00Punt
9PITPIT 319684:25Field goal +3
10NYJNYJ 288742:51Touchdown +8
11PITPIT 306382:19Punt
12NYJNYJ 74291:55Interception
13PITPIT 465250:48Touchdown +7
14NYJNYJ 222-40:27End of half
15NYJNYJ 306262:19Punt
16PITPIT 2111764:52Field goal +3
17NYJNYJ 23300:27Interception
18PITNYJ 1210:07Touchdown +7
19NYJNYJ 2612574:38Missed field goal
20PITPIT 2512755:28Touchdown +7
21NYJNYJ 3010554:16Turnover on downs
22PITPIT 2514757:27Touchdown +7
23NYJNYJ 302120:26End of game

9 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 76 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers24/392761210.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Breece Hall12383.21-0.0
Isaiah Davis11212.00-0.2
Braelon Allen242.00-1.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Breece Hall69103023%4.5
Garrett Wilson5961023%-4.3
Allen Lazard4458010%6.7
Davante Adams3930023%-6.4
Mike Williams121505%2.0
Tyler Conklin447110%0.1
Braelon Allen11203%-0.4
Irvin Charles01003%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jamien Sherwood270.000
Jalen Mills430.001
Javon Kinlaw510.000
Brandin Echols320.000
Quincy Williams310.000
C.J. Mosley310.000
Leki Fotu120.000
Will McDonald301.001
Leonard Taylor120.000
Kendall Sheffield110.000

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Russell Wilson16/292642018.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Najee Harris211024.911.4
Jaylen Warren12443.70-1.3
Russell Wilson331.011.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
George Pickens59111133%7.7
Pat Freiermuth2351011%3.1
Darnell Washington4436015%1.7
Calvin Austin1436015%-1.3
Jaylen Warren2315011%1.3
Van Jefferson2315111%0.9
Najee Harris01004%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Payton Wilson460.000
Beanie Bishop410.022
James Pierre400.000
Patrick Queen130.000
Alex Highsmith130.000
Minkah Fitzpatrick400.000
Joey Porter210.000
DeShon Elliott300.000
Connor Heyward110.000
Keeanu Benton200.002

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NYJ -3
Closing total
40
NYJ moneyline
-166
PIT moneyline
+140

Jets closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40; the game landed 52 — over by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
60°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
NYJ 6 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches
Robert Saleh vs Mike Tomlin