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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:57 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 20, 2024 · Acrisure Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 7
It turned at Q3 7:39, 2nd and 10, on Beanie Bishop — 23.2 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 7:39 · 2nd and 10
Beanie Bishop
Steelers
(7:39) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left intended for 5-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 31-B.Bishop at NYJ 42. 31-B.Bishop to NYJ 1 for 41 yards (17-D.Adams). NYJ-65-X.Newman-Johnson was injured during the play.
Pittsburgh Steelers 37–15 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 7:39, Steelers +23.2% win probability on one snap.
23.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 2 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Steelers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Jets at 6 chunk plays.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.27 expected points per dropback, against Jets at +0.00 expected points per dropback.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(7:39) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left intended for 5-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 31-B.Bishop at NYJ 42. 31-B.Bishop to NYJ 1 for 41 yards (17-D.Adams). NYJ-65-X.Newman-Johnson was injured during the play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Chris Boswell's 21-yard field goal with 7:51 left in the 3rd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Chris Boswell21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.KuntzLead never changed again+315–169 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jetscategory by categorySteelers
Steelers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 56 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Steelers’s 66 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Jets 3, Steelers 6.
Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's pass rate over expected turned over: −3.0 pts in week 6 against +8.2 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Jets8.2 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +6.1 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+1.18× that swing) · 55 snaps
Steelers-8.4 ptsright on their number · −2.2 vs their -6.3 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 66 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 79%
Tendencies room →Jets65.1%inside their normal wobble · +5.2 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 43 early downs
Steelers40.0%leaned — ran early · −8.2 vs their 48.2%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 58%
Tendencies room →Jets17.1%inside their normal wobble · −7.3 vs their 24.4%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Steelers38.7%inside their normal wobble · +11.8 vs their 26.9%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+0.96× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26% to 123%
Fourth Down room →Jets50.0%right on their number · −5.9 vs their 55.9%, and they swing ±25.8 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Steelers40.0%right on their number · +8.7 vs their 31.3%, and they swing ±21.3 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 61%
Tendencies room →Jets41.9%leaned — sent pressure · +13.5 vs their 28.4%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+1.51× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Steelers24.4%right on their number · −5.2 vs their 29.6%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 37%
Tendencies room →Jets16.1%right on their number · +2.5 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Steelers19.5%right on their number · +2.9 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NYJ's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 41.9%, 13.5 points above their season mean of 28.4% and 1.5 times their own 9.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYJ
24/39, 276 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
0.1 expected points added · -5.4% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
16/29, 264 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
8.8 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Breece Hall banked 6.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece HallRB · Bell Cow Back | 26.1 | +6.7 | 82% | 83% | 23% | 0% | 12 car, 38 yd, 1 TD · 6/9, 103 yd |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 24.9 | +3.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/29, 264 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 3 yd, 1 TD |
| George PickensWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.1 | +3.2 | 79% | 90% | 33% | 64% | 5/9, 111 yd, 1 TD |
| Najee HarrisRB · Committee Back | 16.2 | +4.3 | 49% | 29% | 4% | 0% | 21 car, 102 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Featured Receiver | 13.1 | −2.7 | 100% | 100% | 23% | 48% | 5/9, 61 yd |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 13.0 | −3.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/39, 276 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.7 | +2.6 | 86% | 85% | 10% | 0% | 4/4, 7 yd, 1 TD |
| Allen LazardWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.8 | +3.5 | 58% | 61% | 10% | 23% | 4/4, 58 yd |
| Van JeffersonWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.5 | +1.6 | 62% | 68% | 11% | 5% | 2/3, 15 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Committee Back | 7.9 | −4.2 | 51% | 68% | 11% | 1% | 12 car, 44 yd · 2/3, 15 yd |
| Darnell WashingtonTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.6 | +1.9 | 53% | 42% | 15% | 3% | 4/4, 36 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +2.6 | 71% | 77% | 11% | 9% | 2/3, 51 yd |
| Davante AdamsWR · Featured Receiver | 6.0 | −6.4 | 96% | 98% | 23% | 22% | 3/9, 30 yd |
| Calvin AustinWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | −1.0 | 50% | 61% | 15% | 10% | 1/4, 36 yd |
| Mike WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −1.4 | 33% | 34% | 5% | 14% | 1/2, 15 yd |
| Braelon AllenRB | 1.6 | −0.8 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Isaiah DavisRB | 1.2 | +0.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Xavier GipsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Irvin CharlesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Jonathan WardRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Connor HeywardTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 15% | 6% | 0% | — | No touches. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:39) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left intended for 5-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 31-B.Bishop at NYJ 42. 31-B.Bishop to NYJ 1 for 41 yards (17-D.Adams). NYJ-65-X.Newman-Johnson was injured during the play.
Q3 7:39 · Jets · 2nd & 10 at NYJ 23 · gained nothing · -6.50 EP · −20.3% win probability
158 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 82 yards from the NYJ 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jets0
Steelers3Jets6Steelers3Jets7Steelers3How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Jets7Steelers6How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, from outside the pocket.
Jets13Steelers6Jets15Steelers6Jets15Steelers12Jets15Steelers13How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
Jets15Steelers16How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
Jets15Steelers22Jets15Steelers23Jets15Steelers29Jets15Steelers30Jets15Steelers36Jets15Steelers37Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jets at Steelers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/39 | 276 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +0.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 12 | 38 | 3.2 | 1 | −0.0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Braelon Allen | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 6 | 9 | 103 | 0 | 23% | +4.5 |
| Garrett Wilson | 5 | 9 | 61 | 0 | 23% | −4.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamien Sherwood | 2 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Mills | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Javon Kinlaw | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandin Echols |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 16/29 | 264 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +8.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_07_NYJ_PIT
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Jets closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40; the game landed 52 — over by 12.0.
Conditions and crew
| Allen Lazard | 4 | 4 | 58 | 0 | 10% | +6.7 |
| Davante Adams | 3 | 9 | 30 | 0 | 23% | −6.4 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 5% | +2.0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 4 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 10% | +0.1 |
| Braelon Allen | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Irvin Charles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Quincy Williams | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Mosley | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leki Fotu | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will McDonald | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Leonard Taylor | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Sheffield | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 |
| 102 |
| 4.9 |
| 1 |
| +1.4 |
| Jaylen Warren | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 | +1.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 5 | 9 | 111 | 1 | 33% | +7.7 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 2 | 3 | 51 | 0 | 11% | +3.1 |
| Darnell Washington | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 15% | +1.7 |
| Calvin Austin | 1 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 15% | −1.3 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 11% | +1.3 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 11% | +0.9 |
| Najee Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Wilson | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Beanie Bishop | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| James Pierre | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Queen | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Highsmith | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Porter | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeShon Elliott | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Connor Heyward | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keeanu Benton | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
