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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Eagles161 of 173 plays carry both curves
(11:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left end pushed ob at NYG 19 for 55 yards (3-D.Banks).
Swing −12.0 for GiantsExpected points −4.03 for GiantsThe model had Giants 13 points higher than the market did.play 47
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 11:04NYG +12% win prob(11:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left end pushed ob at NYG 19 for 55 yards (3-D.Banks).
2nd · 4:34NYG +8% win prob(4:34) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:52PHI +8% win prob(7:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 25 for -9 yards (0-B.Burns).
2nd · 11:39NYG +7% win prob(11:39) 38-M.Haack punts 34 yards to PHI 26, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
1st · 9:15PHI +7% win prob(9:15) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 26 for -9 yards (19-J.Sweat).
2nd · 13:55PHI +6% win prob(13:55) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 30 for -10 yards (17-N.Dean).
2nd · 9:05NYG +6% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Saquon Barkley's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 9:05 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd9:05Saquon Barkley·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
Eagles ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.15Eagles: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.43Giants: −0.43 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.07Eagles: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.55Giants: −0.55 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.19Eagles: +0.19 expected points added per play
−0.11Giants: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 64 snaps at a 36% dropback rate against Giants’s 54 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 4, Giants 1.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.43.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYG's sack or hit rate, 30.4%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 7 — 2.2 points clear of the next team along.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PHI's early-down pass rate, 25.0%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 7 — 6.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 44.2% in week 6.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points.
PHI's blitz rate sent turned over: 43.3% in week 6 against 23.1% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 16 pts
leaned — got home · +14.8 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+1.88× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Giants30.4%
off script — got home · +15.6 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+2.04× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
NoteNYG's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.4%, 15.6 points above their season mean of 14.9% and 2.0 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 6 inactive
51Cam JurgensG · Every snap100%66 snaps
74Fred JohnsonT · Every snap100%66 snaps
69Landon DickersonG · Full-time82%54 snaps
1Jalen HurtsQB · Full-time82%54 snaps
65Lane JohnsonT · Full-time82%54 snaps
6DeVonta SmithWR · Full-time80%53 snaps
56Tyler SteenG · Heavy rotation77%51 snaps
11A.J. BrownWR · Heavy rotation77%51 snaps
81Grant CalcaterraTE · Heavy rotation71%47 snaps
87Jack StollTE · Heavy rotation67%44 snaps
83Jahan DotsonWR · Heavy rotation58%38 snaps
26Saquon BarkleyRB · Heavy rotation53%35 snaps
14Kenneth GainwellRB · Rotational36%24 snaps
77Mekhi BectonT · Situational23%15 snaps
80Parris CampbellWR · Situational20%13 snaps
75Jack DriscollT · Situational18%12 snaps
61Nick GatesC · Situational18%12 snaps
7Kenny PickettQB · Situational18%12 snaps
89Johnny WilsonWR · Situational17%11 snaps
28Will ShipleyRB · Situational14%9 snaps
57Ben VanSumerenILB · Situational8%5 snaps
Inactive · 6
Eli RicksCBByron YoungDTTrevor KeeganGTanner McKeeQBDarian KinnardTDallas GoedertTE
New York Giants
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
74Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%58 snaps
76Jon RunyanG · Every snap100%58 snaps
72Jermaine EluemunorT · Every snap100%58 snaps
75Joshua EzeuduG · Every snap100%58 snaps
86Darius SlaytonWR · Every snap100%58 snaps
61John Michael SchmitzC · Every snap100%58 snaps
1Malik NabersWR · Full-time93%54 snaps
84Theo JohnsonTE · Full-time90%52 snaps
17Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Full-time84%49 snaps
8Daniel JonesQB · Heavy rotation79%46 snaps
29Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · Heavy rotation67%39 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Situational21%12 snaps
2Drew LockQB · Situational21%12 snaps
85Chris ManhertzTE · Situational14%8 snaps
82Daniel BellingerTE · Situational12%7 snaps
20Eric GrayRB · Situational10%6 snaps
13Jalin HyattWR · Situational5%3 snaps
88Bryce Ford-WheatonWR · Situational2%1 snap
87Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Adoree' JacksonCBAnthony Johnson Jr.FSCarlos BashamOLBJamie GillanPTommy DeVitoQBChris HubbardT
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Barkley left+14% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(11:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left end pushed ob at NYG 19 for 55 yards (3-D.Banks).
Q2 11:04 · Eagles · 2nd & 10 at PHI 26 · gained 55 · +4.03 EP · +14.4% win probability
159 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 92 yards from the PHI 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
40%
Yards
458
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.5264%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.2338%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.0030%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.1375%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Giants0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 35 to the Eagles 45
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 16 to the Eagles 33
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 35
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 34 to the Eagles 39
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 38 to the Giants 45
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 13 to the Giants 48
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter55 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Giants 40
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Eagles6Giants0
Eagles7Giants0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Eagles 26 to the Giants 3
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Giants 34
Eagles13Giants0
Eagles14Giants0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Eagles 42 to the Giants 41
Punt5 plays
The period ended5 plays
Eagles14Giants3
Field goal16 plays, from the Giants 41 to the Eagles 10
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Eagles 34
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 27
Eagles20Giants3
Eagles21Giants3
Touchdown12 plays, from the Eagles 23 to the Giants 1
Punt10 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Eagles 41
The period ended5 plays, from the Eagles 8 to the Giants 35
4th quarter44 plays
Eagles27Giants3
Eagles28Giants3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Giants 34 to the Giants 1
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 34 to the Eagles 36
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 17 to the Giants 37
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 13 to the Eagles 20
Punt4 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Eagles 8 to the Eagles 28
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
