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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:44 AM ET · 16 to play
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Seahawks169 of 176 plays carry both curves
(:10) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 14-D.Metcalf for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −17.0 for FalconsExpected points −4.94 for FalconsModel and market agree here.play 84
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:10ATL +17% win prob(:10) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 14-D.Metcalf for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 12:59SEA +16% win prob(12:59) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins sacked at ATL 45 for -7 yards (53-B.Mafe). FUMBLES (53-B.Mafe) [53-B.Mafe], RECOVERED by SEA-58-D.Hall at ATL 36. 58-D.Hall for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:59ATL +12% win prob(9:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-K.Walker right tackle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:22ATL +11% win prob(2:22) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to ATL 10, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.
2nd · 0:17SEA +10% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right [91-D.Harris]. PENALTY on SEA-7-G.Smith, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 21.
2nd · 11:21ATL +10% win prob(11:21) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 87-N.Fant to ATL 25 for 28 yards (21-M.Hughes).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jason Myers's 38-yard field goal with 10:09 left in the 1st put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:09Jason Myers·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.StollLead never changed again+33–0
4th7:15Jason Myers·59-yd field goal59-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+334–14
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryFalcons
Seahawks4–4Falcons
339Total yards370
6.1Yards per play5.3
39%Success rate53%
36%Third-down rate53%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays5
17First downs21
1Sacks taken3
0Turnovers3
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Seahawks, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Seahawks: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.10Falcons: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.24Seahawks: +0.24 expected points added per play
−0.21Falcons: −0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Seahawks: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.04Falcons: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 56 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Falcons’s 70 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 4, Falcons 2.
NoteFalcons outgained Seahawks 370-339 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's blitz rate sent, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 7 — 3.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 10.0% in week 6.
2.2 times their own weekly swing below their number.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points.
SEA's play-action rate, 30.3%, is past their previous high of 21.6% in week 3 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 6.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.78× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Falcons18.2%
inside their normal wobble · +6.7 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteATL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 27.0 points below their season mean of 27.0% and 2.2 times their own 12.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Smith pass+16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:10) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 14-D.Metcalf for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:10 · Seahawks · 3rd & 15 at ATL 31 · gained 31 · +4.94 EP · +15.5% win probability
167 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 79 yards from the ATL 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
46%
Yards
708
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR70-0.1056%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.1764%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.2629%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Seahawks3Falcons0
Field goal14 plays, from the Seahawks 24 to the Falcons 13
Punt10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 49
Punt10 plays, from the Seahawks 12 to the Falcons 41
The period ended6 plays, from the Falcons 12 to the Falcons 41
2nd quarter49 plays
No good6 plays, from the Falcons 41 to the Seahawks 36
Seahawks9Falcons0
Seahawks10Falcons0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 44 to the Falcons 20
Seahawks10Falcons6
Seahawks10Falcons7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Seahawks 5
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Falcons 35
The period ended7 plays, from the Falcons 10 to the Falcons 41
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Seahawks16Falcons7
Seahawks17Falcons7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Falcons 21
The period ended3 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter44 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Seahawks17Falcons13
Seahawks17Falcons14
Touchdown16 plays, from the Falcons 21 to the Seahawks 5
Seahawks23Falcons14
Seahawks24Falcons14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Seahawks 37 to the Falcons 17
Punt6 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the Seahawks 36
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter42 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Seahawks30Falcons14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 31 to the Seahawks 48
Seahawks31Falcons14
Intercepted8 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Seahawks 37
Seahawks34Falcons14
Field goal7 plays, from the Seahawks 41 to the Falcons 40
Intercepted6 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Falcons 48
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 37 to the Seahawks 45
The period ended8 plays, from the Falcons 13 to the Falcons 47
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Falcons -3
Closing total
51.5
Seahawks moneyline
+136
Falcons moneyline
-162
Falcons closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 48 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Seahawks 10 days · Falcons 7 days
Coaches
Mike Macdonald vs Raheem Morris
3rd · 5:03
ATL +10% win prob
(5:03) 26-Z.Charbonnet up the middle to ATL 37 for 7 yards (24-A.Terrell).
2nd · 5:18ATL +8% win prob(5:18) (Shotgun) 11-J.Smith-Njigba pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf to ATL 35 for 35 yards (24-A.Terrell) [50-J.Smith-Williams].
