2024 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 20, 2024 · New Era Field
Tennessee Titans
10
Buffalo BillsWinner
34
Buffalo Bills 34–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 12:59, TEN +14% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(12:59) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to TEN 41 for -3 yards (90-D.Carter, 9-T.Rapp).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q3 · 12:59TEN +14% win prob(12:59) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to TEN 41 for -3 yards (90-D.Carter, 9-T.Rapp).
- Q2 · 8:38TEN +13% win prob(8:38) 11-M.Rudolph FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 43, touched at TEN 43, RECOVERED by BUF-43-T.Bernard at TEN 46.
- Q2 · 4:54TEN +10% win prob(4:54) 60-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 11-M.Rudolph sacked at TEN 23 for -9 yards (57-A.Epenesa). FUMBLES (57-A.Epenesa) [57-A.Epenesa], touched at TEN 23, recovered by TEN-79-L.Cushenberry at TEN 12. BUF-43-T.Bernard was injured during the play. T.Bernard jogs off.
- Q2 · 0:54TEN +8% win prob(:54) 8-S.Martin punts 27 yards to TEN 40, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 3:00TEN Field goal
(3:00) 6-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: TEN 3 — BUF 0 - Q2 · 11:38TEN Touchdown
(11:38) 11-M.Rudolph pass short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 10 — BUF 0 - Q2 · 10:08BUF Touchdown
(10:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 10 — BUF 7 - Q3 · 10:28BUF Touchdown
(10:28) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 18-A.Cooper for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 8 yds. into end zone. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 10 — BUF 14 - Q3 · 4:15BUF Field goal
(4:15) 2-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: TEN 10 — BUF 17 - Q4 · 15:00BUF Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 26-Ty.Johnson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: TEN-56-K.Murray has returned to the game. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 10 — BUF 24 - Q4 · 9:29BUF Field goal
(9:29) 2-T.Bass 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: TEN 10 — BUF 27 - Q4 · 2:00BUF Touchdown
(2:00) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 22-R.Davis right tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 10 — BUF 34
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Titans | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 66 | 54 |
| Total yards | 289 | 389 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.4 | 7.2 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.22 | 0.22 (edge) |
| Success rate | 36% | 44% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 65% | 65% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.07 | 0.36 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.52 | -0.04 (edge) |
| Third downs | 6/16 (edge) | 3/10 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 | 8 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 15 | 17 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 3 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 (edge) |
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · BUF
21/33, 323 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
12.9 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
25/40, 215 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-3.6 expected points added · -1.9% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | BUF 30 | 5 | 9 | 1:29 | Punt | |
| 2 | TEN | TEN 8 | 5 | 17 | 2:17 | Punt | |
| 3 | BUF | BUF 27 | 4 | 5 | 1:14 | Punt | |
| 4 | TEN | TEN 32 | 13 | 61 | 7:03 | Field goal +3 | |
| 5 | BUF | BUF 30 | 5 | 4 | 1:41 | Punt | |
| 6 | TEN | TEN 25 | 9 | 70 | 4:45 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 7 | BUF | BUF 39 | 5 | 61 | 1:27 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 8 | TEN | TEN 30 | 5 | 13 | 1:34 | Fumble | |
| 9 | BUF | TEN 46 | 6 | 2 | 2:23 | Punt | |
| 10 | TEN | TEN 20 | 6 | 17 | 3:26 | Punt | |
| 11 | BUF | BUF 24 | 4 | 9 | 1:57 | Punt | |
| 12 | TEN | TEN 40 | 5 | 39 | 0:44 | End of half | |
| 13 | TEN | TEN 36 | 5 | 5 | 2:05 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | BUF | TEN 41 | 7 | 41 | 2:32 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 15 | TEN | TEN 30 | 6 | -3 | 2:18 | Punt | |
| 16 | BUF | BUF 26 | 9 | 59 | 3:53 | Field goal +3 | |
| 17 | TEN | TEN 23 | 5 | 9 | 1:23 | Punt | |
| 18 | BUF | BUF 44 | 7 | 56 | 2:55 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 19 | TEN | TEN 30 | 5 | 0 | 0:29 | Punt | |
| 20 | BUF | BUF 29 | 10 | 59 | 4:59 | Field goal +3 | |
| 21 | TEN | TEN 30 | 13 | 50 | 4:49 | Interception | |
| 22 | BUF | BUF 16 | 6 | 84 | 2:44 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 23 | TEN | TEN 30 | 4 | 11 | 1:53 | End of game |
8 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 84 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Tennessee Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 25/40 | 215 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3.6 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 16 | 61 | 3.8 | 0 | -7.8 |
| Julius Chestnut | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Mason Rudolph | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 | -2.7 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 4 | 4 | 50 | 0 | 11% | 3.5 |
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 13% | 3.9 |
| Calvin Ridley | 3 | 9 | 42 | 0 | 24% | -6.5 |
| Josh Whyle | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 11% | 1.6 |
| Nick Vannett | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 11% | 1.7 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 11% | -1.2 |
| Julius Chestnut | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | 0.8 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 16% | -4.2 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 3% | 1.2 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Murray | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarvis Brownlee | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ernest Jones | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Darrell Baker | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| T'Vondre Sweat | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harold Landry | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Luke Gifford | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amani Hooker | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Lynch | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Buffalo Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 21/33 | 323 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12.9 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Davis | 5 | 41 | 8.2 | 1 | 3.4 |
| James Cook | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 1 | -2.2 |
| Josh Allen | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | -2.2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keon Coleman | 4 | 7 | 125 | 0 | 22% | 4.0 |
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 5 | 66 | 1 | 16% | 4.3 |
| Khalil Shakir | 7 | 7 | 65 | 0 | 22% | 3.9 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 3 | 6 | 52 | 0 | 19% | 5.0 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | 0.2 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 9% | -1.8 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3% | 1.4 |
| Curtis Samuel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.8 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -1.4 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian Williams | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Terrel Bernard | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Baylon Spector | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Rapp | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Damar Hamlin | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Christian Benford | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dawuane Smoot | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Epenesa | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- BUF -9.5
- Closing total
- 41
- TEN moneyline
- +400
- BUF moneyline
- -535
Bills closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 41; the game landed 44 — over by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- New Era Field
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · a turf
- Kickoff weather
- 66°F, wind 12 mph
- Referee
- John Hussey
- Rest
- TEN 7 days · BUF 6 days
- Coaches
- Brian Callahan vs Sean McDermott