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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:37 AM ET · 16 to play
Buffalo Bills 34, Titans 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 12:59, 4th and 2, on Tony Pollard — 13.7 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 12:59 · 4th and 2
Tony Pollard
Bills
(12:59) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to TEN 41 for -3 yards (90-D.Carter, 9-T.Rapp).
Bills closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Buffalo Bills 34–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 12:59, Bills +13.7% win probability on one snap.
13.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBillsQ2 8:38(8:38) 11-M.Rudolph FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 43, touched at TEN 43, RECOVERED by BUF-43-T.Bernard at TEN 46.
13.2pts
Mason RudolphBillsQ2 4:54(4:54) 60-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 11-M.Rudolph sacked at TEN 23 for -9 yards (57-A.Epenesa). FUMBLES (57-A.Epenesa) [57-A.Epenesa], touched at TEN 23, recovered by TEN-79-L.Cushenberry at TEN 12. BUF-43-T.Bernard was injured during the play. T.Bernard jogs off.
9.9pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Bills won this one — -0.04 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.52 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Titans at -0.22 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bills won this one — no giveaways, against Titans at 2 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.36 expected points per dropback, against Titans at -0.07 expected points per dropback.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Titans162 of 168 plays carry both curves
(12:59) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to TEN 41 for -3 yards (90-D.Carter, 9-T.Rapp).
Swing +13.7 for BillsExpected points +3.10 for BillsThe model had Titans 14 points higher than the market did.play 88
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 12:59TEN +14% win prob(12:59) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to TEN 41 for -3 yards (90-D.Carter, 9-T.Rapp).
2nd · 8:38TEN +13% win prob(8:38) 11-M.Rudolph FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 43, touched at TEN 43, RECOVERED by BUF-43-T.Bernard at TEN 46.
2nd · 4:54TEN +10% win prob(4:54) 60-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 11-M.Rudolph sacked at TEN 23 for -9 yards (57-A.Epenesa). FUMBLES (57-A.Epenesa) [57-A.Epenesa], touched at TEN 23, recovered by TEN-79-L.Cushenberry at TEN 12. BUF-43-T.Bernard was injured during the play. T.Bernard jogs off.
2nd · 0:54TEN +8% win prob(:54) 8-S.Martin punts 27 yards to TEN 40, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.
3rd · 10:28BUF +7% win prob(10:28) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 18-A.Cooper for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 8 yds. into end zone.
2nd · 10:08BUF +7% win prob(10:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Amari Cooper's 12-yard touchdown catch with 10:28 left in the 3rd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:00Nick Folk·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+33–0
Bills ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.22Titans: −0.22 expected points added per play
+0.22Bills: +0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.07Titans: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.36Bills: +0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.52Titans: −0.52 expected points added per play
−0.04Bills: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 66 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Bills’s 54 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Titans 3, Bills 6.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
BUF's pass rate over expected, +10.9 pts, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 7 — 2.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +1.2 pts in week 3.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 6.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
BUF's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 33.3% in week 2 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 7.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · −0.6 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Bills23.3%
off script — got home · +8.4 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (+2.03× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteBUF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.3%, 8.4 points above their season mean of 14.9% and 2.0 times their own 4.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Rudolph FUMBLES−15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(8:38) 11-M.Rudolph FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 43, touched at TEN 43, RECOVERED by BUF-43-T.Bernard at TEN 46.
Q2 8:38 · Titans · 1st & 10 at TEN 43 · gained nothing · -4.71 EP · −15.0% win probability
160 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 84 yards from the BUF 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
45%
Yards
678
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.2476%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.0773%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.0246%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.2467%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.9014%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.3340%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Bills0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 39
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 8 to the Titans 25
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Bills 32
Titans3Bills0
Field goal16 plays, from the Titans 32 to the Bills 7
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 35
The period ended4 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Bills 49
2nd quarter42 plays
Titans9Bills0
Titans10Bills0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bills 40 to the Bills 3
Titans10Bills6
Titans10Bills7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bills 39 to the Titans 11
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 43
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 46 to the Titans 36
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 32
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 24 to the Bills 33
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
The period ended7 plays, from the Titans 40 to the Bills 46
3rd quarter44 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Titans 36 to the Titans 45
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Titans10Bills13
Titans10Bills14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 41 to the Titans 12
Punt9 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 47
Titans10Bills17
Field goal10 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Titans 10
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 23 to the Titans 32
The period ended6 plays, from the Bills 44 to the Titans 2
4th quarter41 plays
Titans10Bills23
Titans10Bills24
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays
Titans10Bills27
Field goal10 plays, from the Bills 29 to the Titans 12
Intercepted13 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Bills 17
Titans10Bills33
Titans10Bills34
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 16 to the Titans 15
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
