For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2024 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 27, 2024 · Hard Rock Stadium

Arizona CardinalsWinner

28

Miami Dolphins

27

MIA -4 upsetO 46.5 ✓

Arizona Cardinals 28–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, MIA +38% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIA ↑ARI ↓
Q4 · 0:01ARI 28 — MIA 27ARI ball · 4th & 6ARI 62%

(:01) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:01MIA +38% win prob(:01) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
  2. Q4 · 1:48MIA +15% win prob(1:48) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray right end to MIA 20 for 7 yards (20-J.Brooks).
  3. Q4 · 2:51MIA +13% win prob(2:51) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 18-M.Harrison to 50 for 18 yards (24-C.Smith).
  4. Q2 · 11:37MIA +12% win prob(11:37) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:17MIA Touchdown

    (10:17) 31-R.Mostert up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 0 — MIA 7
  2. Q1 · 1:21MIA Field goal

    (1:21) 7-J.Sanders 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: ARI 0 — MIA 10
  3. Q2 · 11:37ARI Touchdown

    (11:37) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 7 — MIA 10
  4. Q2 · 0:18MIA Field goal

    (:18) 7-J.Sanders 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: ARI 7 — MIA 13
  5. Q3 · 11:48ARI Field goal

    (11:48) 38-C.Ryland 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    Score after this play: ARI 10 — MIA 13
  6. Q3 · 8:35MIA Touchdown

    (8:35) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 28-D.Achane for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 10 — MIA 20
  7. Q3 · 6:22ARI Safety

    (6:22) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 9, touched at MIA -1, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. Penalty on MIA-1-T.Tagovailoa, Illegal Bat, declined.

    Score after this play: ARI 12 — MIA 20
  8. Q3 · 2:18ARI Touchdown

    (2:18) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-M.Harrison for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: ARI 18 — MIA 20
  9. Q4 · 12:26MIA Touchdown

    (12:26) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 18 — MIA 27
  10. Q4 · 8:50ARI Touchdown

    (8:50) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 25 — MIA 27
  11. Q4 · 0:01ARI Field goal

    (:01) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    Score after this play: ARI 28 — MIA 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCardinalsDolphins
Offensive plays6264
Total yards390 (edge)377
Yards per play6.3 (edge)5.9
Expected points added / play0.28 (edge)0.19
Success rate53% (edge)50%
Dropback rate60%63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.49 (edge)0.26
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.040.08 (edge)
Third downs7/1211/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)77
First downs gained on snaps2222
Sacks taken0 (edge)1
Turnovers00

Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

26/36, 307 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

18.3 expected points added · +11.9% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

28/38, 234 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.7 expected points added · +3.9% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Devon AchaneRB

10 att, 97 yds, 0 TD

4.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

20 att, 53 yds, 1 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Trey McBrideTE

9/11 for 124 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Marvin HarrisonWR

6/7 for 111 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MIAMIA 3612614:45Touchdown +7
2ARIARI 30540:58Punt
3MIAMIA 2512518:01Field goal +3
4ARIARI 3011704:48Touchdown +7
5MIAMIA 308142:20Punt
6ARIARI 2012385:26Punt
7MIAMIA 513883:27Field goal +3
8ARIARI 30400:15End of half
9ARIARI 306423:17Field goal +3
10MIAMIA 308703:12Touchdown +7
11ARIARI 30582:02Punt
12MIAMIA 13200:14Safety
13ARIARI 2511754:07Touchdown +6
14MIAMIA 3011704:46Touchdown +7
15ARIARI 3010703:35Touchdown +7
16MIAMIA 3010233:46Punt
17ARIARI 1113835:01Field goal +3

10 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 88 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kyler Murray26/3630720018.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Conner20532.61-2.3
Kyler Murray5193.800.6
Trey Benson11010.000.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Trey McBride911124033%6.2
Marvin Harrison67111121%9.3
Michael Wilson5631118%3.3
James Conner231609%-0.9
Elijah Higgins221306%0.9
Greg Dortch12906%1.0
Zay Jones11303%0.5
Emari Demercado01003%-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Budda Baker660.001
Jalen Thompson730.000
Max Melton440.000
Kyzir White510.001
Dante Stills221.001
Garrett Williams220.000
Mack Wilson310.000
Victor Dimukeje120.000
Starling Thomas210.000
Darren Hall100.000

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa28/382341018.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Devon Achane10979.704.1
Raheem Mostert9192.120.4
Jaylen Wright2189.000.2
Tua Tagovailoa3134.30-1.0
Alec Ingold133.00-0.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyreek Hill6972024%2.3
Devon Achane6850121%1.0
Jaylen Waddle4645016%2.8
Jonnu Smith4620016%1.4
Alec Ingold331908%0.2
Raheem Mostert121105%0.7
Julian Hill331108%0.4
D'Wayne Eskridge11603%1.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
David Long Jr.630.000
Jordyn Brooks540.000
Jordan Poyer350.001
Calais Campbell220.001
Jalen Ramsey310.001
Jevon Holland300.000
Cam Smith300.000
Da'Shawn Hand210.000
Emmanuel Ogbah110.001
Kendall Fuller200.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIA -4
Closing total
46.5
ARI moneyline
+164
MIA moneyline
-198

Dolphins closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 55 — over by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
82°F, wind 14 mph
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
ARI 6 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches
Jonathan Gannon vs Mike McDaniel