For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Cardinals160 of 172 plays carry both curves
(:01) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Swing −38.1 for DolphinsExpected points −0.23 for DolphinsThe model had Dolphins 6 points higher than the market did.play 170
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:01MIA +38% win prob(:01) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
4th · 1:48MIA +15% win prob(1:48) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray right end to MIA 20 for 7 yards (20-J.Brooks).
4th · 2:51MIA +13% win prob(2:51) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 18-M.Harrison to 50 for 18 yards (24-C.Smith).
2nd · 11:37MIA +12% win prob(11:37) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:06MIA +11% win prob(2:06) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner right guard to MIA 33 for 17 yards (21-J.Poyer; 5-J.Ramsey).
3rd · 2:18MIA +10% win prob(2:18) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-M.Harrison for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:22ARI +9% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chad Ryland's 34-yard field goal with 0:01 left in the 4th put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:01Chad Ryland·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap A.BrewerLead never changed again+328–27
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categoryDolphins
Cardinals4–2Dolphins
390Total yards377
6.3Yards per play5.9
53%Success rate50%
58%Third-down rate73%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays7
22First downs22
0Sacks taken1
0Turnovers0
The read
Cardinals ahead 4–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.28Cardinals: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.19Dolphins: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.49Cardinals: +0.49 expected points added per play
+0.26Dolphins: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Cardinals: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.08Dolphins: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 62 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 64 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 4, Dolphins 4.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIA's blitz rate sent, 51.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 8 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points.
ARI's blitz rate sent turned over: 0.0% in week 7 against 32.5% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 24 pts
right on their number · −2.0 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Dolphins2.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.9 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.66× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteMIA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.7%, 9.9 points below their season mean of 12.6% and 1.7 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
70Paris Johnson Jr.T · Every snap100%66 snaps
72Hjalte FroholdtC · Every snap100%66 snaps
62Evan BrownC · Every snap100%66 snaps
1Kyler MurrayQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
68Kelvin BeachumT · Every snap100%66 snaps
85Trey McBrideTE · Full-time97%64 snaps
18Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · Full-time91%60 snaps
6James ConnerRB · Full-time80%53 snaps
14Michael WilsonWR · Heavy rotation70%46 snaps
63Trystan ColonC · Heavy rotation61%40 snaps
87Tip ReimanTE · Rotational44%29 snaps
74Isaiah AdamsG · Rotational39%26 snaps
4Greg DortchWR · Rotational38%25 snaps
84Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational29%19 snaps
17Zay JonesWR · Rotational26%17 snaps
31Emari DemercadoRB · Situational12%8 snaps
33Trey BensonRB · Situational6%4 snaps
67Charlie HeckT · Situational5%3 snaps
0Zach PascalWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Sean Murphy-BuntingCBKei'Trel ClarkCBRoy LopezNTChristian JonesTTravis VokolekTEXavier WeaverWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Clayton TuneQB
Miami Dolphins
49 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
65Robert JonesG · Every snap100%65 snaps
73Austin JacksonT · Every snap100%65 snaps
74Liam EichenbergG · Every snap100%65 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Every snap100%65 snaps
1Tua TagovailoaQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
55Aaron BrewerG · Every snap100%65 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Full-time88%57 snaps
17Jaylen WaddleWR · Full-time86%56 snaps
9Jonnu SmithTE · Heavy rotation66%43 snaps
28De'Von AchaneRB · Heavy rotation58%38 snaps
31Raheem MostertRB · Rotational46%30 snaps
30Alec IngoldFB · Rotational42%27 snaps
89Julian HillTE · Rotational32%21 snaps
81Durham SmytheTE · Rotational29%19 snaps
83Malik WashingtonWR · Rotational25%16 snaps
3Odell Beckham Jr.WR · Situational17%11 snaps
82D'Wayne EskridgeWR · Situational6%4 snaps
25Jaylen WrightRB · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Andrew MeyerCStorm DuckCBKader KohouCBZach SielerDEMohamed KamaraOLBJeff WilsonRBTanner ConnerWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Chad Ryland+44% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:01) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Q4 0:01 · Cardinals · 4th & 6 at MIA 16 · gained nothing · +0.23 EP · +44.1% win probability
158 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 88 yards from the MIA 5 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.20
Success rate
50%
Yards
766
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.1678%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR27-0.0444%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.5490%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR14+0.4829%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.5054%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.3755%
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.2140%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Cardinals0Dolphins6
Cardinals0Dolphins7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Dolphins 36 to the Cardinals 1
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Cardinals 34
Cardinals0Dolphins10
Field goal13 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Cardinals 35
The period ended5 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Dolphins 38
2nd quarter49 plays
Cardinals6Dolphins10
Cardinals7Dolphins10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 1
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 44
Punt12 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Dolphins 42
Cardinals7Dolphins13
Field goal16 plays, from the Dolphins 5 to the Cardinals 6
The period ended5 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Cardinals10Dolphins13
Field goal7 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Dolphins 33
Cardinals10Dolphins19
Cardinals10Dolphins20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Cardinals 9
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Cardinals 38
Cardinals12Dolphins20
Cardinals18Dolphins20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Dolphins 22
The period ended6 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Cardinals 33
4th quarter7 plays
Cardinals18Dolphins26
Cardinals18Dolphins27
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 31 to the Cardinals 6
3rd quarter1 plays
4th quarter39 plays
Cardinals24Dolphins27
Cardinals25Dolphins27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Dolphins 2
Punt10 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Cardinals 47
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Cardinals28Dolphins27
Field goal19 plays, from the Cardinals 11 to the Dolphins 16
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Dolphins -4
Closing total
46.5
Cardinals moneyline
+164
Dolphins moneyline
-198
Dolphins closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 55 — over by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 81°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the north-east; overcast.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Cardinals 6 days · Dolphins 7 days
Coaches
Jonathan Gannon vs Mike McDaniel
(3:22) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner left end to 50 for 13 yards (24-C.Smith). PENALTY on ARI-70-P.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 37 - No Play.
3rd · 11:43MIA +9% win prob(11:43) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left end to ARI 23 for 47 yards (16-M.Melton; 34-J.Thompson).
