For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Ravens173 of 182 plays carry both curves
(1:04) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass deep middle to 19-C.Tillman for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +30.0 for BrownsExpected points +4.98 for BrownsThe model had Browns 8 points higher than the market did.play 167
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:04CLE +30% win prob(1:04) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass deep middle to 19-C.Tillman for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:03BAL +26% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep left to 4-Z.Flowers.
2nd · 1:14BAL +19% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston sacked at CLE 26 for -11 yards (14-K.Hamilton). FUMBLES (14-K.Hamilton) [14-K.Hamilton], RECOVERED by BAL-23-T.Simpson at CLE 25.
3rd · 2:06CLE +18% win prob(2:06) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short middle to 19-C.Tillman for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:44CLE +14% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers to CLE 38 for 21 yards (9-G.Delpit).
4th · 3:59CLE +13% win prob(3:59) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers to CLE 34 for 29 yards (29-C.Mitchell).
4th · 2:49
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cedric Tillman's 38-yard touchdown catch with 1:04 left in the 4th put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st0:40Dustin Hopkins·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Sunahara+30–3
2nd11:56Justin Tucker·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+33–3
2nd3:45Dustin Hopkins·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Sunahara+33–6
4th1:04Cedric Tillman·38-yd TD catch38-yard touchdown catchfrom Jameis Winstonfrom Jameis Winston · two-point no goodLead never changed again+624–29
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryBrowns
Ravens5–4Browns
387Total yards401
6.5Yards per play6.0
50%Success rate48%
20%Third-down rate53%
3Red-zone touchdowns0
10Explosive plays6
19First downs22
3Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Ravens ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Ravens: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.13Browns: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.25Ravens: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.27Browns: +0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.23Ravens: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.13Browns: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 60 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Browns’s 67 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 5, Browns 5.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs 0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 8Against their seasonOver Expected
BAL's pass rate over expected, +2.3 pts, is past their previous high of −1.2 pts in week 5 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
BAL's blitz rate sent, 38.6%, is past their previous high of 32.6% in week 2 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
A 3.0-swing turn from week 7.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · −0.7 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Browns17.1%
right on their number · −1.5 vs their 18.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteBAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 2.3 pts, 10.0 points above their season mean of -7.7 pts and 1.6 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
65Patrick MekariG · Every snap100%68 snaps
77Daniel FaaleleT · Every snap100%68 snaps
64Tyler LinderbaumC · Every snap100%68 snaps
70Roger RosengartenT · Every snap100%68 snaps
79Ronnie StanleyT · Every snap100%68 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
4Zay FlowersWR · Full-time87%59 snaps
7Rashod BatemanWR · Full-time84%57 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Heavy rotation74%50 snaps
80Isaiah LikelyTE · Heavy rotation69%47 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Heavy rotation51%35 snaps
43Justice HillRB · Heavy rotation50%34 snaps
15Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational44%30 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Situational16%11 snaps
88Charlie KolarTE · Situational15%10 snaps
16Tylan WallaceWR · Situational9%6 snaps
66Ben ClevelandG · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Nick SamacCMarlon HumphreyCBNate WigginsCBAdisa IsaacOLBDavid OjaboOLBRasheen AliRB
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass−26% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep left to 4-Z.Flowers.
Q4 0:03 · Ravens · 4th & 10 at CLE 24 · gained nothing · -2.08 EP · −26.4% win probability
171 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 91 yards from the BAL 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
48%
Yards
788
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.1574%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR26+0.3169%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.2152%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17-0.0094%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.4725%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, three linebackers and three backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Ravens 23 to the Browns 7
Ravens0Browns3
Field goal15 plays, from the Browns 10 to the Ravens 9
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Ravens3Browns3
Field goal6 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Browns 20
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Ravens 49
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 13 to the Ravens 14
Ravens3Browns6
Field goal12 plays, from the Browns 33 to the Ravens 14
Punt6 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost4 plays
Ravens9Browns6
Ravens10Browns6
Touchdown3 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 11
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Ravens10Browns12
Ravens10Browns13
Touchdown10 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Ravens 23
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 26 to the Browns 42
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Ravens16Browns13
Ravens17Browns13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 38 to the Browns 7
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Ravens17Browns19
Ravens17Browns20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Ravens 22
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
The period ended7 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Ravens 44
4th quarter62 plays
No good7 plays, from the Browns 45 to the Browns 27
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 40 to the Browns 42
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 6 to the Ravens 24
Ravens17Browns23
Field goal8 plays, from the Browns 38 to the Ravens 29
Ravens23Browns23
Ravens24Browns23
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 9 to the Browns 2
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.4 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Ravens24Browns29
Touchdown14 plays, from the Browns 31 to the Ravens 33
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw10.0 seconds
The period ended13 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Browns 24
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
