2024 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 27, 2024 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Baltimore Ravens

Cleveland BrownsWinner

BAL -7.5 upsetO 44.5 ✓Ravens closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cleveland Browns 29–24. Biggest swing: Q4 1:04, CLE +30% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:04BAL 24 — CLE 29CLE ball · 2nd & 15CLE 54%

(1:04) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass deep middle to 19-C.Tillman for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:04CLE +30% win prob(1:04) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass deep middle to 19-C.Tillman for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:03BAL +26% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep left to 4-Z.Flowers.
Q2 · 1:14BAL +19% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston sacked at CLE 26 for -11 yards (14-K.Hamilton). FUMBLES (14-K.Hamilton) [14-K.Hamilton], RECOVERED by BAL-23-T.Simpson at CLE 25.
Q3 · 2:06CLE +18% win prob(2:06) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short middle to 19-C.Tillman for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 0:40CLE Field goal
(:40) 7-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: BAL 0 — CLE 3
Q2 · 11:56BAL Field goal
(11:56) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BAL 3 — CLE 3
Q2 · 3:45CLE Field goal
(3:45) 7-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: BAL 3 — CLE 6
Q2 · 0:31BAL Touchdown
(:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-N.Agholor for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 10 — CLE 6
Q3 · 10:52CLE Touchdown
(10:52) 5-J.Winston pass deep right to 85-D.Njoku for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 10 — CLE 13
Q3 · 4:47BAL Touchdown
(4:47) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [6-J.Owusu-Koramoah]. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 17 — CLE 13
Q3 · 2:06CLE Touchdown
(2:06) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short middle to 19-C.Tillman for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 17 — CLE 20
Q4 · 4:59CLE Field goal
(4:59) 7-D.Hopkins 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: BAL 17 — CLE 23
Q4 · 2:41BAL Touchdown
(2:41) (Shotgun) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 24 — CLE 23
Q4 · 1:04CLE Touchdown
(1:04) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass deep middle to 19-C.Tillman for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: BAL 24 — CLE 29

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Browns
Offensive plays	60	67
Total yards	387	401 (edge)
Yards per play	6.5 (edge)	6.0
Expected points added / play	0.10	0.13 (edge)
Success rate	50% (edge)	48%
Dropback rate	68%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.25	0.27 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23	-0.13 (edge)
Third downs	2/10	8/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	19	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs 0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Jameis WinstonQB

27/41, 334 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

11.9 expected points added · +2.9% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

23/38, 289 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.6 expected points added · +4.3% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

11 att, 73 yds, 1 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

16 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

-4.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Zay FlowersWR

7/12 for 115 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Cedric TillmanWR

7/9 for 99 yds, 2 TD

22% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 23	11	78	6:15	Turnover on downs
2	CLE	CLE 10	14	91	8:08	Field goal +3
3	BAL	BAL 29	8	40	3:46	Field goal +3
4	CLE	CLE 30	6	21	1:25	Punt
5	BAL	BAL 13	4	1	1:06	Punt
6	CLE	CLE 33	10	52	5:39	Field goal +3
7	BAL	BAL 19	5	5	1:43	Punt
8	CLE	CLE 42	3	-12	0:50	Fumble
9	BAL	CLE 25	3	25	0:41	Touchdown +7
10	CLE	CLE 26	2	-1	0:27	End of half
11	CLE	CLE 30	10	70	4:14	Touchdown +7
12	BAL	BAL 26	6	1	2:38	Punt
13	CLE	CLE 14	4	0	0:27	Punt
14	BAL	BAL 38	7	67	2:59	Touchdown +7
15	CLE	CLE 28	8	72	2:41	Touchdown +7
16	BAL	BAL 29	11	29	4:03	Missed field goal
17	CLE	CLE 40	4	2	1:27	Punt
18	BAL	BAL 6	6	4	2:25	Punt
19	CLE	CLE 38	8	32	4:11	Field goal +3
20	BAL	BAL 9	8	91	2:19	Touchdown +7
21	CLE	CLE 31	11	74	1:37	Touchdown +6
22	BAL	BAL 30	9	46	0:59	Turnover on downs

10 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 91 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	23/38	289	2	0	3	7.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	11	73	6.6	1	-1.5
Lamar Jackson	8	46	5.8	0	0.0
Justice Hill	2	5	2.5	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zay Flowers	7	12	115	0	34%	4.8
Isaiah Likely	4	4	47	0	11%	4.0
Mark Andrews	5	5	36	1	14%	2.6
Nelson Agholor	3	5	36	1	14%	0.9
Rashod Bateman	1	5	28	0	14%	-0.5
Justice Hill	1	1	14	0	3%	0.5
Charlie Kolar	1	2	9	0	6%	0.6
Derrick Henry	1	1	4	0	3%	0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Eddie Jackson	6	4	0.0	1
Kyle Hamilton	7	1	1.0	2
Roquan Smith	5	3	0.0	0
Jalyn Armour-Davis	3	2	0.0	0
Brandon Stephens	4	0	0.0	0
Ar'Darius Washington	3	0	0.0	0
Sanoussi Kane	2	1	0.0	0
Odafe Oweh	1	1	0.0	0
Trenton Simpson	2	0	0.0	0
Tavius Robinson	0	2	0.5	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jameis Winston	27/41	334	3	0	2	11.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Nick Chubb	16	52	3.3	-4.8
D'Onta Foreman	5	26	5.2	1.0
Jameis Winston	2	2	1.0	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cedric Tillman	7	9	99	2	22%	8.2
Elijah Moore	8	12	85	0	29%	3.1
Jerry Jeudy	5	8	79	0	20%	3.9
David Njoku	5	7	61	1	17%	2.9
Geoff Swaim	1	1	7	0	2%	0.3
Pierre Strong	1	1	3	0	2%	-0.2
Nick Chubb	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.1
Jordan Akins	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Grant Delpit	5	4	0.0	0
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	4	2	1.0	0
Mohamoud Diabate	2	4	0.0	1
Devin Bush	2	2	0.0	0
Juan Thornhill	3	1	0.0	1
Martin Emerson	4	0	0.0	1
Za'Darius Smith	2	2	1.0	0
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo	2	1	1.0	0
Greg Newsome	2	0	0.0	0
Isaiah McGuire	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -7.5
Closing total: 44.5
BAL moneyline: -380
CLE moneyline: +300

Ravens closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 53 — over by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 52°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: BAL 6 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Kevin Stefanski

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.