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2024 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 27, 2024 · Lumen Field

Buffalo BillsWinner

31

Seattle Seahawks

10

BUF -3 ✓U 45.5 ✓

Buffalo Bills 31–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 6:54, BUF +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SEA ↑BUF ↓
Q2 · 6:54BUF 7 — SEA 3BUF ball · 3rd & 3BUF 77%

(6:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 18-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Jobe at BUF 40. 29-J.Jobe to BUF 7 for 33 yards (17-J.Allen).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 6:54BUF +16% win prob(6:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 18-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Jobe at BUF 40. 29-J.Jobe to BUF 7 for 33 yards (17-J.Allen).
  2. Q2 · 4:46BUF +11% win prob(4:46) 51-O.Oluwatimi reported in as eligible. 7-G.Smith up the middle to BUF 7 for -6 yards (50-G.Rousseau).
  3. Q1 · 6:46SEA +9% win prob(6:46) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 0-K.Coleman to SEA 16 for 25 yards (8-C.Bryant). Penalty on SEA-29-J.Jobe, Defensive Holding, declined.
  4. Q2 · 9:51BUF +7% win prob(9:51) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith Aborted. 57-C.Williams FUMBLES at BUF 18, recovered by SEA-9-K.Walker at BUF 29. 9-K.Walker pushed ob at BUF 22 for 7 yards (94-D.Smoot).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 4:54BUF Touchdown

    (4:54) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short right to 0-K.Coleman for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 7 — SEA 0
  2. Q2 · 8:18SEA Field goal

    (8:18) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: BUF 7 — SEA 3
  3. Q2 · 0:25BUF Touchdown

    (:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 14 — SEA 3
  4. Q3 · 8:34BUF Field goal

    (8:34) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: BUF 17 — SEA 3
  5. Q3 · 2:01BUF Touchdown

    (2:01) 4-J.Cook left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 24 — SEA 3
  6. Q4 · 11:23BUF Touchdown

    (11:23) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 31 — SEA 3
  7. Q4 · 8:05SEA Touchdown

    (8:05) 51-O.Oluwatimi reported in as eligible. 26-Z.Charbonnet right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 31 — SEA 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBillsSeahawks
Offensive plays6646
Total yards448 (edge)234
Yards per play6.8 (edge)5.1
Expected points added / play0.31 (edge)-0.21
Success rate55% (edge)46%
Dropback rate56%70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.33 (edge)0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.30 (edge)-0.79
Third downs7/14 (edge)1/7
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)10 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps25 (edge)15
Sacks taken11
Turnovers11

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs -0.21.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

24/34, 283 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

12.5 expected points added · +7.4% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

21/29, 212 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

1.2 expected points added · +3.1% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

17 att, 111 yds, 2 TD

5.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Ray DavisRB

6 att, 29 yds, 0 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Khalil ShakirWR

9/10 for 107 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Keon ColemanWR

5/7 for 70 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1SEASEA 30511:02Punt
2BUFBUF 10151109:07Touchdown +7
3SEASEA 30521:30Punt
4BUFBUF 127353:03Punt
5SEASEA 913947:04Field goal +3
6BUFBUF 30471:31Interception
7SEABUF 7401:59Turnover on downs
8BUFBUF 713724:26Touchdown +7
9SEASEA 30200:18End of half
10BUFBUF 2312846:29Field goal +3
11SEASEA 307252:32Interception
12BUFBUF 498514:02Touchdown +7
13SEASEA 205201:54Punt
14BUFBUF 278573:44Touchdown +7
15SEASEA 3011683:17Touchdown +7
16BUFBUF 155120:39Punt
17SEASEA 107242:21Punt
18BUFBUF 25492:19Punt
19BUFSEA 264112:43End of game

7 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 110 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Josh Allen24/3428321112.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Cook171116.525.7
Ray Davis6294.801.2
Josh Allen7253.601.9
Khalil Shakir122.00-0.5
Mitchell Trubisky3-3-1.00-3.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Khalil Shakir910107031%4.3
Keon Coleman5770122%7.4
Dawson Knox225006%3.3
Dalton Kincaid4731122%3.0
James Cook332209%1.3
Amari Cooper12306%-6.6
Ty Johnson01003%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Taron Johnson340.000
Taylor Rapp140.000
Ed Oliver130.000
Cameron Lewis220.001
Damar Hamlin310.000
Christian Benford220.000
Baylon Spector220.000
Rasul Douglas310.001
Gregory Rousseau110.002
Josh Allen100.000

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Geno Smith21/292120111.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Geno Smith5163.20-7.3
Kenneth Walker9121.30-4.1
Zach Charbonnet341.310.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba6769026%4.4
A.J. Barner223407%2.3
Kenneth Walker4533019%-4.5
Noah Fant3422015%0.1
Zach Charbonnet3420015%0.3
Jake Bobo111504%0.8
Laviska Shenault Jr.111004%1.6
Tyler Lockett139011%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ernest Jones780.000
Tyrel Dodson520.000
Josh Jobe520.011
Coby Bryant510.001
Julian Love310.000
Tariq Woolen310.001
Devon Witherspoon310.000
Derick Hall300.000
K'Von Wallace110.000
Byron Murphy110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BUF -3
Closing total
45.5
BUF moneyline
-170
SEA moneyline
+142

Bills closed -3 and covered, winning by 21.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 41 — under by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
55°F, wind 14 mph
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
BUF 7 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Mike Macdonald