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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Buffalo Bills 31, Seahawks 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 6:54, 3rd and 3, on Josh Jobe — 16.0 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 6:54 · 3rd and 3
Josh Jobe
Seahawks
(6:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 18-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Jobe at BUF 40. 29-J.Jobe to BUF 7 for 33 yards (17-J.Allen).
15.4 mph wind
Bills closed -3 and covered, winning by 21.
Buffalo Bills 31–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 6:54, Seahawks +16.0% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.4 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
16.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Keon ColemanBillsQ1 6:46(6:46) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 0-K.Coleman to SEA 16 for 25 yards (8-C.Bryant). Penalty on SEA-29-J.Jobe, Defensive Holding, declined.
8.8pts
Geno SmithBillsQ2 4:46(4:46) 51-O.Oluwatimi reported in as eligible. 7-G.Smith up the middle to BUF 7 for -6 yards (50-G.Rousseau).
10.8pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Bills won this one — +0.30 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.79 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 3 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.31 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at -0.21 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Seahawks at 1 of 7 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Bills161 of 173 plays carry both curves
(6:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 18-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Jobe at BUF 40. 29-J.Jobe to BUF 7 for 33 yards (17-J.Allen).
Swing +16.0 for SeahawksExpected points +6.49 for SeahawksThe model had Seahawks 11 points higher than the market did.play 59
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 6:54BUF +16% win prob(6:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 18-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Jobe at BUF 40. 29-J.Jobe to BUF 7 for 33 yards (17-J.Allen).
2nd · 4:46BUF +11% win prob(4:46) 51-O.Oluwatimi reported in as eligible. 7-G.Smith up the middle to BUF 7 for -6 yards (50-G.Rousseau).
1st · 6:46SEA +9% win prob(6:46) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 0-K.Coleman to SEA 16 for 25 yards (8-C.Bryant). Penalty on SEA-29-J.Jobe, Defensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 9:51BUF +7% win prob(9:51) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith Aborted. 57-C.Williams FUMBLES at BUF 18, recovered by SEA-9-K.Walker at BUF 29. 9-K.Walker pushed ob at BUF 22 for 7 yards (94-D.Smoot).
1st · 12:39BUF +7% win prob(12:39) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 22-R.Davis right guard to SEA 48 for 11 yards (21-D.Witherspoon). PENALTY on BUF-70-A.Anderson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 41 - No Play.
2nd · 0:25SEA +7% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Keon Coleman's 2-yard touchdown catch with 4:54 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Bills ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.79 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.31Bills: +0.31 expected points added per play
−0.21Seahawks: −0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.33Bills: +0.33 expected points added per play
+0.04Seahawks: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.30Bills: +0.30 expected points added per play
−0.79Seahawks: −0.79 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 66 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 46 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Bills 6, Seahawks 3.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SEA's blitz rate sent, 10.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 8 — 3.0 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.6 points.
SEA's sack or hit rate, 2.7%, is past their previous low of 12.8% in week 5 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 7.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · +0.8 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Seahawks2.7%
off script — stayed blocked · −14.8 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−2.09× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteSEA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.7%, 14.8 points below their season mean of 17.5% and 2.1 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 6 inactive
79Spencer BrownT · Every snap100%76 snaps
64O'Cyrus TorrenceG · Every snap100%76 snaps
76David EdwardsG · Full-time91%69 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Full-time91%69 snaps
66Connor McGovernC · Full-time91%69 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Full-time91%69 snaps
0Keon ColemanWR · Full-time83%63 snaps
10Khalil ShakirWR · Heavy rotation58%44 snaps
4James CookRB · Heavy rotation55%42 snaps
86Dalton KincaidTE · Heavy rotation54%41 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Heavy rotation54%41 snaps
18Amari CooperWR · Heavy rotation50%38 snaps
13Mack HollinsWR · Rotational46%35 snaps
70Alec AndersonG · Rotational28%21 snaps
22Ray DavisRB · Situational22%17 snaps
26Ty JohnsonRB · Situational20%15 snaps
89Jalen VirgilWR · Situational14%11 snaps
85Quintin MorrisTE · Situational13%10 snaps
41Reggie GilliamFB · Situational12%9 snaps
74Ryan Van DemarkT · Situational9%7 snaps
62Sedrick Van Pran-GrangerC · Situational9%7 snaps
11Mitchell TrubiskyQB · Situational9%7 snaps
Inactive · 6
Will ClappCZion LogueDEMike EdwardsFSEdefuan UlofoshioMLBTerrel BernardMLBCurtis SamuelWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass−21% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(6:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 18-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Jobe at BUF 40. 29-J.Jobe to BUF 7 for 33 yards (17-J.Allen).
Q2 6:54 · Bills · 3rd & 3 at BUF 37 · gained nothing · -6.49 EP · −21.4% win probability
159 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 93 yards from the BUF 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
48%
Yards
678
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.2859%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.0579%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.4538%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.0143%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.4771%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 31
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
Bills6Seahawks0
Bills7Seahawks0
Touchdown19 plays, from the Bills 10 to the Seahawks 2
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 32
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 12 to the Bills 42
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
Bills7Seahawks3
Field goal14 plays, from the Seahawks 14 to the Bills 2
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 37
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and three tight endsDefense on the fieldSix linemen, two linebackers and three backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Bills 7 to the Bills 1
Bills13Seahawks3
Bills14Seahawks3
Touchdown18 plays, from the Bills 7 to the Seahawks 12
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Bills17Seahawks3
Field goal15 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Seahawks 5
Intercepted8 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Bills 40
Bills23Seahawks3
Bills24Seahawks3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bills 49 to the Seahawks 2
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 25
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter48 plays
Bills30Seahawks3
Bills31Seahawks3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Seahawks 7
Bills31Seahawks9
Bills31Seahawks10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Bills 1
The period ended8 plays, from the Bills 15 to the Bills 22
Punt9 plays, from the Seahawks 10 to the Seahawks 45
Punt3 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Bills 34
The period ended5 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the Seahawks 15
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
