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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:26 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
2024 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 27, 2024 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
PanthersCarolina14
BY 14final margin
BroncosDenver28
Carolina Panthers 14 at Denver Broncos 28. Final.
Broncos -13 ✓O 40.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 8
Denver Broncos 28, Panthers 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 2:56, 3rd and 5, on Bo Nix — 11.0 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Broncos closed -13 and covered, winning by 14.
Denver Broncos 28–14. Biggest swing: Q1 2:56, Panthers +11.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 2:56 · 3rd and 5
Bo Nix
Panthers
(2:56) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix sacked at CAR 41 for -13 yards (94-A.Robinson).
11.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBroncosQ1 2:04(2:04) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to CAR 1, impetus ends at CAR 1, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-34-J.Skinner.
10.4pts
Unnamed on the sheetPanthersQ1 0:31(:31) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to DEN 45, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
10.4pts
What separated them
Third down
Broncos won this one — 12 of 17 on third down, against Panthers at 5 of 14 on third down.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — +0.04 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.15 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.09 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.13 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Broncos won this one — -0.04 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.17 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 40 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Panthers164 of 177 plays carry both curves
(2:56) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix sacked at CAR 41 for -13 yards (94-A.Robinson).
Swing −11.0 for BroncosExpected points −3.40 for BroncosThe model had Panthers 35 points higher than the market did.play 27
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 2:56CAR +11% win prob(2:56) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix sacked at CAR 41 for -13 yards (94-A.Robinson).
1st · 0:31DEN +10% win prob(:31) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to DEN 45, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
1st · 2:04DEN +10% win prob(2:04) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to CAR 1, impetus ends at CAR 1, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-34-J.Skinner.
1st · 9:40DEN +8% win prob(9:40) 9-B.Young pass short right to 18-J.Coker to DEN 7 for 8 yards (22-B.Jones; 21-R.Moss).
1st · 13:50CAR +8% win prob(13:50) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 84-L.Humphrey to DEN 48 for 8 yards (99-S.Tuttle). FUMBLES (99-S.Tuttle), RECOVERED by CAR-99-S.Tuttle at DEN 49.
1st · 4:21DEN +7% win prob(4:21) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep middle to 14-C.Sutton to CAR 33 for 23 yards (2-M.Jackson; 25-X.Woods).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Adam Trautman's 19-yard touchdown catch with 6:56 left in the 2nd put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Broncos ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.15Panthers: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.04Broncos: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.13Panthers: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.09Broncos: +0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Panthers: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.04Broncos: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 60 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Broncos’s 71 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 3, Broncos 5.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
−2.5σtheir own normal+2.5σ
One dot per reading, placed at how far it sits from that club's own normal in that club's own standard deviations. 10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor.
CAR's play-action rate turned over: 33.3% in week 7 against 14.3% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · −0.9σ from their own normal
CAR's early-down pass rate turned over: 41.9% in week 7 against 61.9% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points. · +0.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.2 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (−1.38× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Broncos11.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.5 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteDEN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 45.2%, 18.2 points above their season mean of 27.0% and 1.7 times their own 10.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Nix pass−12% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:50) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 84-L.Humphrey to DEN 48 for 8 yards (99-S.Tuttle). FUMBLES (99-S.Tuttle), RECOVERED by CAR-99-S.Tuttle at DEN 49.
Q1 13:50 · Broncos · 1st & 10 at DEN 40 · gained 8 · -5.02 EP · −12.0% win probability
162 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 98 yards from the CAR 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
43%
Yards
684
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.0182%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.0463%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.3557%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.1121%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.6433%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.7467%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Broncos0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 40
Panthers6Broncos0
Panthers7Broncos0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Broncos 49 to the Broncos 6
Punt11 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Panthers 28
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 1 to the Panthers 5
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter56 plays
Panthers7Broncos6
Panthers7Broncos7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 18 to the Panthers 2
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 32
Panthers7Broncos13
Panthers7Broncos14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Broncos 8 to the Panthers 19
The period ended7 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 49
Panthers7Broncos20
Panthers7Broncos21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Panthers 48 to the Panthers 1
Drive ended5 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 32
The period ended1 play
Punt1 play
The period ended7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 38
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 32
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 21 to the Broncos 40
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 24
Panthers7Broncos27
Panthers7Broncos28
Touchdown5 plays, from the Panthers 23 to the Panthers 9
Intercepted10 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Broncos 23
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 39 to the Broncos 43
The period ended3 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Panthers 25
4th quarter45 plays
Punt3 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Broncos 33 to the Panthers 37
Intercepted7 plays, from the Panthers 39 to the Broncos 18
The period ended13 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Panthers 9
Panthers13Broncos28
Panthers14Broncos28
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 2 to the Broncos 15
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
