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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Chicago Bears 15 at Washington Commanders 18. Final.
Commanders -1.5 ✓U 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 8
Washington Commanders 18, Bears 15 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:02, 1st and 10, on Noah Brown — 90.2 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:02 · 1st and 10
Noah Brown
Commanders
(:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep middle to 85-N.Brown for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Commanders closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Washington Commanders 18–15 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, Commanders +90.2% win probability on one snap.
90.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetCommandersQ4 6:21(6:21) 68-D.Kramer reported in as eligible. 18-C.Williams FUMBLES (Aborted) at WAS 4, RECOVERED by WAS-95-J.Newton at WAS 1. 95-J.Newton to WAS 3 for 2 yards (76-T.Jenkins).
31.7pts
Caleb WilliamsBearsQ4 0:35(:35) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen [95-J.Newton]. PENALTY on WAS-25-B.St-Juste, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at WAS 12 - No Play.
22.2pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.26 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bears owned this one and still lost it — +0.01 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.26 expected points per carry.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Commanders at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Commanders won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Bears at 6 chunk plays.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Bears172 of 181 plays carry both curves
(:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep middle to 85-N.Brown for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +90.2 for CommandersExpected points +6.78 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 8 points higher than the market did.play 180
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:02WAS +90% win prob(:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep middle to 85-N.Brown for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 6:21CHI +32% win prob(6:21) 68-D.Kramer reported in as eligible. 18-C.Williams FUMBLES (Aborted) at WAS 4, RECOVERED by WAS-95-J.Newton at WAS 1. 95-J.Newton to WAS 3 for 2 yards (76-T.Jenkins).
4th · 0:35WAS +22% win prob(:35) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen [95-J.Newton]. PENALTY on WAS-25-B.St-Juste, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at WAS 12 - No Play.
4th · 2:59WAS +16% win prob(2:59) (No Huddle) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 13-K.Allen to WAS 19 for 22 yards (20-Q.Martin).
4th · 0:27WAS +15% win prob(:27) 23-R.Johnson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 7:59WAS +13% win prob(7:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore pushed ob at WAS 8 for 27 yards (20-Q.Martin) [54-B.Wagner]. CHI-2-D.Moore was injured during the play. ** Injury Update: CHI-76-T.Jenkins has returned to the game.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Noah Brown's 52-yard touchdown catch with 0:02 left in the 4th put Washington Commanders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:54Austin Seibert·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.Ott+30–3
1st1:08Austin Seibert·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.Ott+30–6
2nd5:27Austin Seibert·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.Ott+30–9
3rd5:52Austin Seibert·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.Ott+30–12
Commanders ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bears, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.13Bears: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.07Commanders: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.25Bears: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.26Commanders: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Bears: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.26Commanders: −0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 61 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Commanders’s 72 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Bears 3, Commanders 3.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's sack or hit rate turned over: 9.5% in week 7 against 24.2% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points.
WAS's blitz rate sent turned over: 19.0% in week 7 against 45.5% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Commanders24.2%
leaned — got home · +9.8 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.61× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteWAS's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 51.7 points below their season mean of 51.7% and 1.8 times their own 29.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Daniels pass+83% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep middle to 85-N.Brown for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:02 · Commanders · 1st & 10 at WAS 48 · gained 52 · +6.78 EP · +82.7% win probability
170 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 175. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 84 yards from the CHI 15 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
41%
Yards
790
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.0350%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.1363%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.3047%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.0731%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.3250%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Commanders1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 31
Bears0Commanders3
Field goal9 plays, from the Commanders 36 to the Bears 7
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Commanders 41
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Bears0Commanders6
Field goal13 plays, from the Commanders 9 to the Bears 7
The period ended4 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 35
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Bears 38 to the Bears 39
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 17 to the Commanders 42
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 40
Bears0Commanders9
Field goal8 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Bears 9
The period ended14 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Commanders 23
The period ended8 plays, from the Commanders 8 to the Bears 49
3rd quarter45 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Bears 33
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 4 to the Bears 7
Bears0Commanders12
Field goal9 plays, from the Bears 41 to the Bears 22
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 30 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 7 to the Commanders 14
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Bears6Commanders12
Bears7Commanders12
Touchdown3 plays, from the Bears 41 to the Bears 44
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter51 plays
No good5 plays, from the Bears 36 to the Bears 33
Punt5 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Commanders 9 to the Bears 49
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and three tight endsDefense on the fieldSix linemen, three linebackers and two backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Commanders 1
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 3 to the Commanders 12
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.6 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Bears13Commanders12
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageBlown coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.7 seconds
Bears15Commanders12
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bears 38 to the Commanders 1
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw12.6 seconds
Bears15Commanders18
Touchdown6 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Commanders 48
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
