2024 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 27, 2024 · FedExField

Chicago Bears

Washington CommandersWinner

WAS -1.5 ✓U 46.5 ✓Commanders closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Washington Commanders 18–15 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, WAS +90% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:02CHI 15 — WAS 18WAS ball · 1st & 10CHI 90%

(:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep middle to 85-N.Brown for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:02WAS +90% win prob(:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep middle to 85-N.Brown for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 6:21CHI +32% win prob(6:21) 68-D.Kramer reported in as eligible. 18-C.Williams FUMBLES (Aborted) at WAS 4, RECOVERED by WAS-95-J.Newton at WAS 1. 95-J.Newton to WAS 3 for 2 yards (76-T.Jenkins).
Q4 · 0:35WAS +22% win prob(:35) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen [95-J.Newton]. PENALTY on WAS-25-B.St-Juste, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at WAS 12 - No Play.
Q4 · 2:59WAS +16% win prob(2:59) (No Huddle) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 13-K.Allen to WAS 19 for 22 yards (20-Q.Martin).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:54WAS Field goal
(8:54) 3-A.Seibert 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Score after this play: CHI 0 — WAS 3
Q1 · 1:08WAS Field goal
(1:08) 3-A.Seibert 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Score after this play: CHI 0 — WAS 6
Q2 · 5:27WAS Field goal
(5:27) 3-A.Seibert 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Score after this play: CHI 0 — WAS 9
Q3 · 5:52WAS Field goal
(5:52) 3-A.Seibert 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Score after this play: CHI 0 — WAS 12
Q3 · 0:54CHI Touchdown
(:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left end for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 7 — WAS 12
Q4 · 0:27CHI Touchdown
(:27) 23-R.Johnson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: CHI 15 — WAS 12
Q4 · 0:02WAS Touchdown
(:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep middle to 85-N.Brown for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CHI 15 — WAS 18

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Commanders
Offensive plays	61	72
Total yards	309	481 (edge)
Yards per play	5.1	6.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.13	0.07 (edge)
Success rate	43%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	54%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25	0.26 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01 (edge)	-0.26
Third downs	2/12	5/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

21/38, 326 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

6.4 expected points added · -0.9% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

10/24, 131 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-8.3 expected points added · -9.4% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

D'Andre SwiftRB

18 att, 129 yds, 1 TD

3.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Brian RobinsonRB

16 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

5/8 for 125 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 9.4 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Zach ErtzTE

7/11 for 77 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 0.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 30	5	-5	1:57	Punt
2	WAS	WAS 36	9	56	4:12	Field goal +3
3	CHI	CHI 29	8	35	2:48	Punt
4	WAS	WAS 9	12	84	4:59	Field goal +3
5	CHI	CHI 30	5	9	2:03	Punt
6	WAS	WAS 17	5	24	2:05	Punt
7	CHI	CHI 20	6	20	3:31	Turnover on downs
8	WAS	CHI 40	7	31	3:01	Field goal +3
9	CHI	CHI 29	12	31	4:29	Punt
10	WAS	WAS 8	6	72	0:55	End of half
11	WAS	WAS 30	10	31	4:42	Punt
12	CHI	CHI 4	4	3	0:40	Punt
13	WAS	CHI 41	7	16	3:50	Field goal +3
14	CHI	CHI 30	7	20	3:04	Punt
15	WAS	WAS 7	4	7	1:15	Punt
16	CHI	CHI 41	3	59	0:46	Touchdown +7
17	WAS	WAS 24	7	33	1:39	Missed field goal
18	CHI	CHI 41	4	0	0:20	Punt
19	WAS	WAS 9	9	42	3:16	Punt
20	CHI	CHI 15	9	84	4:10	Fumble
21	WAS	WAS 3	4	9	1:57	Punt
22	CHI	CHI 38	11	53	3:56	Touchdown +8
23	WAS	WAS 24	5	76	0:25	Touchdown +6

7 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 84 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Caleb Williams	10/24	131	0	0	3	-8.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
D'Andre Swift	18	129	7.2	1	3.0
Caleb Williams	9	47	5.2	0	-4.8
Rome Odunze	2	13	6.5	0	1.1
D.J. Moore	2	7	3.5	0	-0.2
Roschon Johnson	2	6	3.0	1	1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Rome Odunze	3	6	41	29%	1.6
Keenan Allen	2	7	39	33%	-1.1
D.J. Moore	2	4	27	19%	-2.2
Cole Kmet	1	1	14	5%	1.7
DeAndre Carter	1	1	7	5%	1.0
Gerald Everett	1	2	3	10%	-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tremaine Edmunds	3	6	0.0	0
DeMarcus Walker	1	7	0.0	0
Tyrique Stevenson	6	2	0.0	1
Elijah Hicks	4	2	0.0	0
T.J. Edwards	4	1	1.0	0
Kevin Byard	2	3	0.0	0
Gervon Dexter	3	2	0.0	0
Montez Sweat	2	1	1.0	0
Josh Blackwell	3	0	0.0	1
Jake Martin	1	2	0.0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jayden Daniels	21/38	326	1	0	2	6.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Brian Robinson	16	65	4.1	-2.4
Jayden Daniels	8	52	6.5	4.2
Austin Ekeler	7	52	7.4	-1.8
Jeremy McNichols	1	-1	-1.0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	5	8	125	0	24%	9.4
Zach Ertz	7	11	77	0	32%	0.7
Noah Brown	3	6	73	1	18%	5.1
John Bates	1	2	20	0	6%	0.7
Brian Robinson	1	1	11	0	3%	0.0
Luke McCaffrey	1	2	8	0	6%	-1.7
Austin Ekeler	2	3	6	0	9%	-1.1
Dyami Brown	1	1	6	0	3%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Quan Martin	8	2	0.0	0
Bobby Wagner	5	2	0.0	0
Benjamin St-Juste	3	2	0.0	0
Frankie Luvu	3	2	0.0	0
Jeremy Chinn	2	2	0.0	0
Daron Payne	3	1	1.0	0
Mike Sainristil	2	2	0.0	1
Percy Butler	2	1	0.0	0
Jer'Zhan Newton	3	0	1.0	0
Dorance Armstrong	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: WAS -1.5
Closing total: 46.5
CHI moneyline: +102
WAS moneyline: -122

Commanders closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 33 — under by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 58°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: CHI 14 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Matt Eberflus vs Dan Quinn