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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Cowboys165 of 177 plays carry both curves
(:20) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to DAL 2, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-10-R.Bell.
Swing +13.3 for 49ersExpected points −0.27 for 49ersThe model had Cowboys 6 points higher than the market did.play 86
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:20SF +13% win prob(:20) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to DAL 2, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-10-R.Bell.
2nd · 0:34DAL +12% win prob(:34) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy sacked at DAL 47 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by SF-65-A.Banks at DAL 47.
3rd · 13:38SF +12% win prob(13:38) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle pushed ob at DAL 4 for 43 yards (7-T.Diggs).
1st · 10:15SF +9% win prob(10:15) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 1-D.Samuel to DAL 36 for 47 yards (28-M.Hooker).
3rd · 11:36DAL +9% win prob(11:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Lenoir at DAL 32. 2-D.Lenoir to DAL 32 for no gain (88-C.Lamb).
2nd · 4:43SF +9% win prob(4:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 1-J.Tolbert to SF 13 for 28 yards (2-D.Lenoir). Penalty on SF-2-D.Lenoir, Illegal Contact, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Isaac Guerendo's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 13:00 left in the 3rd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:19Anders Carlson·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+30–3
4th8:04CeeDee Lamb·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+717–27
4th4:30Anders Carlson·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+317–30
4th3:36CeeDee Lamb·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+724–30
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by category49ers
Cowboys0–749ers
293Total yards470
5.1Yards per play7.5
41%Success rate52%
33%Third-down rate50%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays10
16First downs19
2Sacks taken2
2Turnovers0
The read
49ers ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.02Cowboys: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.2549ers: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.02Cowboys: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.3349ers: +0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Cowboys: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.1749ers: +0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 58 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against 49ers’s 63 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 4, 49ers 4.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · −7.1 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
49ers20.0%
inside their normal wobble · +6.2 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.82× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was SF's sack or hit rate, 20.0% against a season mean of 13.8% — and SF swings 7.6 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Purdy pass+14% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(13:38) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle pushed ob at DAL 4 for 43 yards (7-T.Diggs).
Q3 13:38 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at DAL 47 · gained 43 · +2.87 EP · +14.0% win probability
163 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 75 yards from the SF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
47%
Yards
761
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.0874%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.2056%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR24+0.2938%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.3450%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.360%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
49ers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 41
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Cowboys049ers3
Field goal9 plays, from the 49ers 13 to the Cowboys 32
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Cowboys 32 to the 49ers 45
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 8 to the 49ers 34
The period ended6 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Cowboys 48
2nd quarter53 plays
Cowboys649ers3
Cowboys749ers3
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 48 to the 49ers 1
The period ended10 plays, from the 49ers 34 to the Cowboys 43
Cowboys1049ers3
Field goal9 plays, from the Cowboys 43 to the 49ers 10
Cowboys1049ers6
Field goal9 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the Cowboys 26
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 33 to the Cowboys 40
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt9 plays, from the 49ers 17 to the Cowboys 40
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Cowboys1049ers12
Cowboys1049ers13
Touchdown7 plays, from the 49ers 40 to the Cowboys 4
Intercepted4 plays, from the Cowboys 11 to the Cowboys 17
Cowboys1049ers19
Cowboys1049ers20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 32 to the Cowboys 2
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 26 to the Cowboys 32
Cowboys1049ers26
Cowboys1049ers27
Touchdown11 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cowboys 2
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter51 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the Cowboys 45
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 17 to the 49ers 26
Cowboys1649ers27
Cowboys1749ers27
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the 49ers 5
Cowboys1749ers30
Field goal8 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the Cowboys 22
Cowboys2349ers30
Cowboys2449ers30
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the 49ers 20
The period ended8 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 37
Turnover on downs4 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 3
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
