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2024 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 27, 2024 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Green Bay PackersWinner

30

Jacksonville Jaguars

27

GB -3.5 no coverO 49 ✓

Green Bay Packers 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:13, JAX +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3JAX ↑GB ↓
Q4 · 1:13GB 27 — JAX 27GB ball · 2nd & 6GB 71%

(1:13) 2-M.Willis pass deep left to 11-J.Reed pushed ob at JAX 15 for 51 yards (6-D.Savage).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 1:13JAX +16% win prob(1:13) 2-M.Willis pass deep left to 11-J.Reed pushed ob at JAX 15 for 51 yards (6-D.Savage).
  2. Q3 · 0:31JAX +16% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 1:54JAX +15% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 17-E.Engram for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 14:55GB +11% win prob(14:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 4 for -10 yards (56-E.Cooper). FUMBLES (56-E.Cooper) [56-E.Cooper], RECOVERED by GB-95-D.Wyatt at JAX 5. Penalty on JAX-11-P.Washington, Illegal Motion, declined.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 11:35GB Touchdown

    (11:35) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 7 — JAX 0
  2. Q2 · 6:07GB Field goal

    (6:07) 17-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 10 — JAX 0
  3. Q2 · 2:46JAX Touchdown

    (2:46) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 10 — JAX 7
  4. Q2 · 0:58GB Field goal

    (:58) 17-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 13 — JAX 7
  5. Q2 · 0:07JAX Field goal

    (:07) 39-C.Little 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: GB 13 — JAX 10
  6. Q3 · 5:17JAX Touchdown

    (5:17) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 13 — JAX 17
  7. Q3 · 0:31GB Touchdown

    (:31) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 20 — JAX 17
  8. Q4 · 14:12GB Touchdown

    (14:12) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short right to 85-T.Kraft for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 27 — JAX 17
  9. Q4 · 5:39JAX Field goal

    (5:39) 39-C.Little 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: GB 27 — JAX 20
  10. Q4 · 1:54JAX Touchdown

    (1:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 17-E.Engram for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 27 — JAX 27
  11. Q4 · 0:02GB Field goal

    (:02) 17-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 30 — JAX 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersJaguars
Offensive plays6456
Total yards425 (edge)390
Yards per play6.67.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.11 (edge)0.06
Success rate45%48% (edge)
Dropback rate47%61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.22 (edge)0.12
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.01 (edge)-0.03
Third downs4/12 (edge)1/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)711 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps20 (edge)19
Sacks taken11
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs 0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

21/32, 308 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

5.4 expected points added · +6.6% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

14/22, 196 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

2.9 expected points added · +3.3% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Josh JacobsRB

25 att, 127 yds, 2 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Tank BigsbyRB

18 att, 78 yds, 0 TD

-2.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Tucker KraftTE

3/3 for 78 yds, 1 TD

11% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Romeo DoubsWR

3/6 for 72 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · -0.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1GBGB 308263:29Punt
2JAXJAX 17481:37Punt
3GBGB 2451:39Punt
4JAX50472:04Punt
5GBGB 811767:13Interception
6JAXJAX 6211:02Interception
7GBJAX 28471:25Touchdown +7
8JAXJAX 30572:07Punt
9GBGB 206723:21Field goal +3
10JAXJAX 308753:26Touchdown +7
11GBGB 3011461:43Field goal +3
12JAXJAX 267530:51Field goal +3
13GBGB 30200:03End of half
14JAXJAX 30581:29Punt
15GBGB 205202:48Punt
16JAXJAX 711985:33Touchdown +7
17GBGB 2010804:49Touchdown +7
18JAXJAX 114-60:35Fumble
19GBJAX 5350:40Touchdown +7
20JAXJAX 305-11:01Punt
21GBGB 247193:25Punt
22JAXJAX 208534:04Field goal +3
23GBGB 30531:46Punt
24JAXJAX 139872:02Touchdown +7
25GBGB 308661:48Field goal +3

11 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 98 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love14/221960102.9
Malik Willis4/5561013.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs251275.122.5
Malik Willis4235.80-1.5
Christopher Brooks4164.000.7
Emanuel Wilson451.30-2.0
Jayden Reed100.00-0.9
Jordan Love1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tucker Kraft3378111%6.7
Romeo Doubs3672022%-0.3
Jayden Reed2355011%2.6
Christian Watson4639022%2.4
Dontayvion Wicks221107%1.9
Christopher Brooks11104%-0.0
Bo Melton01004%-1.2
Ben Sims01004%-0.5
Josh Jacobs12-207%-2.6
Emanuel Wilson22-207%-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Edgerrin Cooper351.001
Eric Wilson340.000
Isaiah McDuffie340.000
Javon Bullard320.000
Xavier McKinney320.011
Kenny Clark120.000
Keisean Nixon210.000
Colby Wooden110.001
Lukas Van Ness200.000
Evan Williams110.000

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence21/323082115.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tank Bigsby18784.30-2.8
Trevor Lawrence4102.511.3
D'Ernest Johnson133.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Brian Thomas3460113%3.2
Christian Kirk2559017%-1.1
Brenton Strange5559017%3.7
Parker Washington3446013%2.0
Evan Engram4536117%3.0
D'Ernest Johnson122007%-0.7
Tim Jones122007%0.9
Tank Bigsby238010%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Foyesade Oluokun450.000
Davon Hamilton340.000
Ventrell Miller420.000
Jeremiah Ledbetter420.000
Darnell Savage420.000
Travon Walker130.500
Montaric Brown400.000
Tyler Lacy130.000
Josh Hines-Allen130.500
Tyson Campbell210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
GB -3.5
Closing total
49
GB moneyline
-192
JAX moneyline
+160

Packers closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 49; the game landed 57 — over by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
84°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
GB 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Doug Pederson