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3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Packers167 of 180 plays carry both curves
(1:13) 2-M.Willis pass deep left to 11-J.Reed pushed ob at JAX 15 for 51 yards (6-D.Savage).
Swing −16.3 for JaguarsExpected points −3.78 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 14 points higher than the market did.play 171
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:13JAX +16% win prob(1:13) 2-M.Willis pass deep left to 11-J.Reed pushed ob at JAX 15 for 51 yards (6-D.Savage).
3rd · 0:31JAX +16% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:54JAX +15% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 17-E.Engram for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 14:55GB +11% win prob(14:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 4 for -10 yards (56-E.Cooper). FUMBLES (56-E.Cooper) [56-E.Cooper], RECOVERED by GB-95-D.Wyatt at JAX 5. Penalty on JAX-11-P.Washington, Illegal Motion, declined.
3rd · 5:17JAX +10% win prob(5:17) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 6:37JAX +10% win prob(6:37) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 13-C.Kirk to GB 19 for 26 yards (20-J.Bullard) [90-L.Van Ness].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brandon McManus's 24-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 4th put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:02Brandon McManus·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.OrzechLead never changed again+330–27
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryJaguars
Packers4–4Jaguars
425Total yards390
6.6Yards per play7.0
45%Success rate48%
33%Third-down rate11%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays11
20First downs19
1Sacks taken1
1Turnovers2
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Packers, in third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Packers: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.06Jaguars: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.22Packers: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.12Jaguars: +0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Packers: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.03Jaguars: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 64 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 56 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Packers 7, Jaguars 3.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
JAX's play-action rate turned over: 54.5% in week 7 against 14.7% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 3.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
JAX's early-down pass rate turned over: 31.3% in week 7 against 60.9% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · −1.7 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Jaguars10.0%
right on their number · −0.0 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was JAX's pass rate over expected, -7.4 pts against a season mean of -3.6 pts — and JAX swings 4.8 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Willis pass+23% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:13) 2-M.Willis pass deep left to 11-J.Reed pushed ob at JAX 15 for 51 yards (6-D.Savage).
Q4 1:13 · Packers · 2nd & 6 at GB 34 · gained 51 · +3.78 EP · +23.2% win probability
165 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 175. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 93 yards from the JAX 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
47%
Yards
812
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.0943%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.2760%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.4063%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.3347%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.0120%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Packers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Jaguars 48
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 17 to the Jaguars 25
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 2 to the Packers 7
Punt5 plays, from midfield to the Packers 43
The period ended11 plays, from the Packers 8 to the Jaguars 22
2nd quarter59 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 15
Intercepted3 plays, from the Jaguars 6 to the Jaguars 7
Packers6Jaguars0
Packers7Jaguars0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Jaguars 28 to the Jaguars 3
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 38
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.8 seconds
Packers10Jaguars0
Field goal7 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Jaguars 9
Packers10Jaguars6
Packers10Jaguars7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Packers 1
Packers13Jaguars7
Field goal16 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Jaguars 19
Packers13Jaguars10
Field goal8 plays, from the Jaguars 26 to the Packers 21
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 38
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Packers 40
Packers13Jaguars16
Packers13Jaguars17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jaguars 7 to the Packers 14
How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Packers19Jaguars17
Packers20Jaguars17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Jaguars 38
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter52 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost2 plays
Packers26Jaguars17
Packers27Jaguars17
Touchdown3 plays, from the Jaguars 5 to the Jaguars 3
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Packers 46
Packers27Jaguars20
Field goal8 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Packers 27
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Packers 33
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Packers27Jaguars26
Packers27Jaguars27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 13 to the Packers 14
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Packers30Jaguars27
Field goal11 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Jaguars 4
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
