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2024 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 27, 2024 · NRG Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

20

Houston TexansWinner

23

HOU -5 no coverU 45 ✓Dome

Houston Texans 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:07, IND +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3HOU ↑IND ↓
Q4 · 3:07IND 20 — HOU 23HOU ball · 2nd & 8HOU 92%

(3:07) 7-C.Stroud to IND 15 for -7 yards (54-D.Odeyingbo). FUMBLES (54-D.Odeyingbo), RECOVERED by IND-54-D.Odeyingbo at IND 18. 54-D.Odeyingbo for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 3:07IND +17% win prob(3:07) 7-C.Stroud to IND 15 for -7 yards (54-D.Odeyingbo). FUMBLES (54-D.Odeyingbo), RECOVERED by IND-54-D.Odeyingbo at IND 18. 54-D.Odeyingbo for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 7-C.Stroud to IND 15 for -7 yards (54-D.Odeyingbo). FUMBLES (54-D.Odeyingbo), RECOVERED by IND-54-D.Odeyingbo at IND 18. 54-D.Odeyingbo to IND 18 for no gain (28-J.Mixon).
  2. Q2 · 0:34IND +15% win prob(:34) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short right intended for 1-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Pitre at IND 17. 5-J.Pitre to IND 7 for 10 yards (79-B.Raimann).
  3. Q1 · 1:01HOU +14% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep left to 1-J.Downs for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-F.Fatukasi].
  4. Q2 · 1:13IND +7% win prob(1:13) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at IND 45 for -9 yards (99-D.Buckner).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:18HOU Field goal

    (11:18) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: IND 0 — HOU 3
  2. Q1 · 10:03IND Field goal

    (10:03) 7-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 3 — HOU 3
  3. Q1 · 1:01IND Touchdown

    (1:01) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep left to 1-J.Downs for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-F.Fatukasi]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 10 — HOU 3
  4. Q2 · 10:12HOU Touchdown

    (10:12) 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-54-J.Patterson was injured during the play. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 10 — HOU 10
  5. Q2 · 0:23HOU Touchdown

    (:23) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 3-T.Dell for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 10 — HOU 17
  6. Q3 · 7:55HOU Field goal

    (7:55) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: IND 10 — HOU 20
  7. Q3 · 2:04IND Field goal

    (2:04) 7-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 13 — HOU 20
  8. Q4 · 12:24HOU Field goal

    (12:24) 15-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: IND 13 — HOU 23
  9. Q4 · 8:34IND Touchdown

    (8:34) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 20 — HOU 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricColtsTexans
Offensive plays6168
Total yards304363 (edge)
Yards per play5.05.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.09-0.07 (edge)
Success rate30%41% (edge)
Dropback rate62%57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.190.14 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.06 (edge)-0.35
Third downs2/134/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)10 (edge)7
First downs gained on snaps1720 (edge)
Sacks taken52 (edge)
Turnovers21 (edge)

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

25/37, 285 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

5.5 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Anthony RichardsonQB

10/32, 175 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-8.1 expected points added · -24.8% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

20 att, 105 yds, 1 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Joe MixonRB

25 att, 102 yds, 1 TD

-3.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Josh DownsWR

4/9 for 109 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Stefon DiggsWR

5/9 for 81 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 1.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1HOUHOU 4310413:45Field goal +3
2INDHOU 407121:15Field goal +3
3HOUHOU 32581:46Punt
4INDIND 286261:54Punt
5HOUHOU 86203:18Punt
6INDIND 195812:12Touchdown +7
7HOUHOU 3012705:46Touchdown +7
8INDIND 255-81:32Punt
9HOUHOU 47400:28Punt
10INDIND 184-70:35Punt
11HOUHOU 45421:43Punt
12INDIND 14420:52Punt
13HOUHOU 279283:54Punt
14INDIND 5370:37Interception
15HOUIND 7270:06Touchdown +7
16INDIND 33200:17End of half
17INDIND 308393:41Punt
18HOUHOU 88763:27Field goal +3
19INDIND 3011625:51Field goal +3
20HOUHOU 3010594:40Field goal +3
21INDIND 3013703:49Touchdown +7
22HOUHOU 3010495:27Defensive touchdown
23INDIND 184-81:11Punt
24HOUHOU 38431:00Punt
25INDIND 97280:54Fumble

9 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 81 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Anthony Richardson10/32175115-8.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor201055.31-0.6
Anthony Richardson6457.503.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Josh Downs49109129%2.7
Michael Pittman1616019%-0.6
Trey Sermon111403%0.3
Jonathan Taylor111203%1.5
Alec Pierce1411013%-0.4
Adonai Mitchell149013%-2.9
Kylen Granson12406%-0.7
Tyler Goodson01003%-0.6
Will Mallory02006%-1.2
Mo Alie-Cox01003%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Zaire Franklin640.000
E.J. Speed450.001
Julian Blackmon520.000
Nick Cross330.000
Kenny Moore510.000
Dayo Odeyingbo311.000
Jaylon Jones310.001
Grover Stewart130.000
DeForest Buckner211.000
Segun Olubi200.000

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud25/372851025.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Joe Mixon251024.11-3.7
Dare Ogunbowale144.000.6
Dameon Pierce144.00-0.1
Stefon Diggs1-4-4.00-1.5
C.J. Stroud1-10-10.00-5.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Stefon Diggs5981025%1.0
Dalton Schultz4652017%1.5
Tank Dell4435111%2.6
Joe Mixon4632017%1.0
John Metchie3429011%0.1
Cade Stover231908%0.1
Xavier Hutchinson111903%2.5
Robert Woods221806%2.9
Dare Ogunbowale01003%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Will Anderson421.000
Eric Murray420.003
Neville Hewitt320.001
Jalen Pitre310.011
Devin White210.000
Derek Stingley120.001
Calen Bullock300.000
Tim Settle301.000
Cade Stover200.000
Kamari Lassiter110.003

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
HOU -5
Closing total
45
IND moneyline
+185
HOU moneyline
-225

Texans closed -5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 45; the game landed 43 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
IND 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs DeMeco Ryans

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.