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Indianapolis Colts 20 at Houston Texans 23. Final.
Texans -5 no coverU 45 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 8
Houston Texans 23, Colts 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 3:07, 2nd and 8 — 16.9 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:07 · 2nd and 8
Unnamed on the sheet
Colts
(3:07) 7-C.Stroud to IND 15 for -7 yards (54-D.Odeyingbo). FUMBLES (54-D.Odeyingbo), RECOVERED by IND-54-D.Odeyingbo at IND 18. 54-D.Odeyingbo for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 7-C.Stroud to IND 15 for -7 yards (54-D.Odeyingbo). FUMBLES (54-D.Odeyingbo), RECOVERED by IND-54-D.Odeyingbo at IND 18. 54-D.Odeyingbo to IND 18 for no gain (28-J.Mixon).
Dome
Texans closed -5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Houston Texans 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:07, Colts +16.9% win probability on one snap.
16.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Josh DownsColtsQ1 1:01(1:01) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep left to 1-J.Downs for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-F.Fatukasi].
13.9pts
Jalen PitreTexansQ2 0:34(:34) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short right intended for 1-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Pitre at IND 17. 5-J.Pitre to IND 7 for 10 yards (79-B.Raimann).
15.3pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Colts owned this one and still lost it — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.35 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Texans won this one — 41% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Texans at 7 chunk plays.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Texans won this one — 4 of 13 on third down, against Colts at 2 of 13 on third down.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Colts176 of 185 plays carry both curves
(3:07) 7-C.Stroud to IND 15 for -7 yards (54-D.Odeyingbo). FUMBLES (54-D.Odeyingbo), RECOVERED by IND-54-D.Odeyingbo at IND 18. 54-D.Odeyingbo for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down
Swing −16.9 for TexansExpected points −5.44 for TexansThe model had Colts 3 points higher than the market did.play 163
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 3:07IND +17% win prob(3:07) 7-C.Stroud to IND 15 for -7 yards (54-D.Odeyingbo). FUMBLES (54-D.Odeyingbo), RECOVERED by IND-54-D.Odeyingbo at IND 18. 54-D.Odeyingbo for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 7-C.Stroud to IND 15 for -7 yards (54-D.Odeyingbo). FUMBLES (54-D.Odeyingbo), RECOVERED by IND-54-D.Odeyingbo at IND 18. 54-D.Odeyingbo to IND 18 for no gain (28-J.Mixon).
2nd · 0:34IND +15% win prob(:34) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short right intended for 1-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Pitre at IND 17. 5-J.Pitre to IND 7 for 10 yards (79-B.Raimann).
1st · 1:01HOU +14% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep left to 1-J.Downs for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-F.Fatukasi].
2nd · 1:13IND +7% win prob(1:13) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at IND 45 for -9 yards (99-D.Buckner).
2nd · 1:07HOU +7% win prob(1:07) 6-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to IND 5, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.
1st · 11:15HOU +7% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tank Dell's 7-yard touchdown catch with 0:23 left in the 2nd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:18Ka'imi Fairbairn·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Weeks+30–3
1st10:03Matt Gay·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+33–3
1st1:01Josh Downs·69-yd TD catch69-yard touchdown catchfrom Anthony Richardsonfrom Anthony Richardson+710–3
Texans ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Colts: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.07Texans: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.19Colts: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.14Texans: +0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.06Colts: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.35Texans: −0.35 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 61 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Texans’s 68 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Colts 3, Texans 6.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
IND's blitz rate sent turned over: 3.2% in week 7 against 28.2% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 19 pts
leaned — got home · +10.7 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+1.42× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Texans23.7%
leaned — got home · +7.8 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.20× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteHOU's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 33.3 points below their season mean of 33.3% and 1.5 times their own 22.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
68Dalton TuckerG · Every snap100%64 snaps
79Bernhard RaimannT · Every snap100%64 snaps
72Braden SmithT · Every snap100%64 snaps
56Quenton NelsonG · Every snap100%64 snaps
78Ryan KellyC · Every snap100%64 snaps
5Anthony RichardsonQB · Full-time98%63 snaps
11Michael PittmanWR · Full-time95%61 snaps
28Jonathan TaylorRB · Full-time81%52 snaps
14Alec PierceWR · Heavy rotation78%50 snaps
1Josh DownsWR · Heavy rotation70%45 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational42%27 snaps
83Kylen GransonTE · Rotational31%20 snaps
85Andrew OgletreeTE · Rotational28%18 snaps
10Adonai MitchellWR · Situational20%13 snaps
86Will MalloryTE · Situational19%12 snaps
16Ashton DulinWR · Situational16%10 snaps
27Trey SermonRB · Situational16%10 snaps
31Tyler GoodsonRB · Situational3%2 snaps
15Joe FlaccoQB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Danny PinterCDavid LongCBGenard AveryDEIsaiah LandDESam EhlingerQBAnthony GouldWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Richardson pass+19% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(1:01) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep left to 1-J.Downs for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-F.Fatukasi].
Q1 1:01 · Colts · 2nd & 9 at IND 31 · gained 69 · +6.18 EP · +19.2% win probability
174 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 179. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 81 yards from the IND 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
39%
Yards
666
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.1461%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.1056%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR26+0.0658%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.0656%
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Colts0Texans3
Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 43 to the Colts 16
Colts3Texans3
Field goal7 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Texans 28
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 32 to the Texans 40
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 28 to the Texans 48
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 8 to the Texans 38
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
Colts9Texans3
Colts10Texans3
Touchdown5 plays, from the Colts 19 to the Colts 31
The period ended4 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 32
2nd quarter49 plays
Colts10Texans9
Colts10Texans10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 48 to the Colts 14
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 45 to the Texans 48
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 14 to the Colts 16
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt11 plays, from the Texans 27 to the Colts 36
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Colts 5 to the Colts 12
Colts10Texans16
Colts10Texans17
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Texans 35
Colts10Texans20
Field goal8 plays, from the Texans 8 to the Colts 16
Colts13Texans20
Field goal14 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Texans 8
The period ended6 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Colts 40
4th quarter54 plays
Colts13Texans23
Field goal6 plays, from the Colts 44 to the Colts 13
Colts19Texans23
Colts20Texans23
Touchdown13 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Texans 1
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
The period ended14 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Colts 7
Punt5 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the Texans 38 to the Texans 41
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxOne defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
The period ended8 plays, from the Colts 9 to the Colts 49
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Texans -5
Closing total
45
Colts moneyline
+185
Texans moneyline
-225
Texans closed -5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 45; the game landed 43 — under by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Colts 7 days · Texans 7 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs DeMeco Ryans
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
15-K.Fairbairn kicks 60 yards from HOU 35 to IND 5. 16-A.Dulin pushed ob at HOU 40 for 55 yards (33-D.Ogunbowale; 37-D.Ross).
4th · 0:01IND +7% win prob(:01) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson sacked at IND 39 for -10 yards (55-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (55-D.Hunter) [55-D.Hunter], touched at IND 37, RECOVERED by HOU-51-W.Anderson at IND 24. Fumble Forced by 43-N.Hewitt.
1st · 4:00IND +7% win prob(4:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 28 for -9 yards (54-D.Odeyingbo).
