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2024 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 27, 2024 · Allegiant Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

27

Las Vegas Raiders

20

KC -9 no coverO 42 ✓Dome

Kansas City Chiefs 27–20. Biggest swing: Q3 5:49, KC +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LVKC
Q3 · 5:49KC 17LV 13KC ball · 1st & 16KC 79%

(5:49) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Moehrig (95-J.Jenkins) at KC 15. 7-T.Moehrig to KC 3 for 12 yards (62-J.Thuney).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 5:49KC +13% win prob(5:49) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Moehrig (95-J.Jenkins) at KC 15. 7-T.Moehrig to KC 3 for 12 yards (62-J.Thuney).
  2. Q2 · 10:18LV +10% win prob(10:18) 2-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
  3. Q3 · 3:31KC +9% win prob(3:31) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at KC 8 for -5 yards (98-T.Wharton).
  4. Q4 · 8:06KC +9% win prob(8:06) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at LV 37 for 0 yards (69-M.Pennel). FUMBLES (69-M.Pennel) [69-M.Pennel], RECOVERED by KC-23-D.Tranquill at LV 41. 23-D.Tranquill to LV 38 for 3 yards (74-K.Miller).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:08KC Touchdown

    (10:08) 29-K.Hunt right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 7LV 0
  2. Q1 · 2:42LV Touchdown

    (2:42) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short left to 16-J.Meyers for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 7LV 7
  3. Q2 · 10:18LV Field goal

    (10:18) 2-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: KC 7LV 10
  4. Q2 · 2:00KC Touchdown

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 14LV 10
  5. Q2 · 0:08KC Field goal

    (:08) 7-H.Butker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: KC 17LV 10
  6. Q3 · 6:44LV Field goal

    (6:44) 2-D.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: KC 17LV 13
  7. Q4 · 8:48KC Field goal

    (8:48) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: KC 20LV 13
  8. Q4 · 5:03KC Touchdown

    (5:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-X.Worthy for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 27LV 13
  9. Q4 · 2:07LV Touchdown

    (2:07) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short left to 19-D.Turner for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-G.Karlaftis]. KC-23-D.Tranquill was injured during the play. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 27LV 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChiefsRaiders
Offensive plays6453
Total yards337 (edge)229
Yards per play5.3 (edge)4.3
Expected points added / play0.18 (edge)-0.06
Success rate55% (edge)49%
Dropback rate64%64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.33 (edge)0.21
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.10 (edge)-0.54
Third downs12/15 (edge)6/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)3 (edge)1
First downs gained on snaps21 (edge)14
Sacks taken1 (edge)5
Turnovers11

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

27/38, 262 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

10.6 expected points added · +6.3% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Gardner MinshewQB

24/30, 209 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.0 expected points added · +17.1% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Kareem HuntRB

21 att, 59 yds, 1 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

6 att, 17 yds, 0 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

10/12 for 90 yds, 1 TD

34% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Brock BowersTE

5/5 for 58 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1KCKC 3011704:58Touchdown +7
2LVLV 3014757:23Touchdown +7
3KCKC 307141:40Punt
4LVLV 1410505:46Field goal +3
5KCKC 3015758:16Touchdown +7
6LVLV 30520:59Punt
7KCKC 209490:54Field goal +3
8LVLV 30200:04End of half
9LVLV 30511:35Punt
10KCKC 8410:54Punt
11LVKC 2810195:51Field goal +3
12KCKC 8201:01Interception
13LVKC 34-52:12Turnover on downs
14KCKC 819909:43Field goal +3
15LVLV 30370:44Fumble
16KCLV 389383:01Touchdown +7
17LVLV 3015802:56Touchdown +7
18KCLV 45402:03End of game

9 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 90 scrimmage yards over 19 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes27/3826221110.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kareem Hunt21592.81-1.7
Patrick Mahomes6172.801.1
Carson Steele263.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Travis Kelce101290134%2.7
Xavier Worthy4837123%0.6
Justin Watson333309%3.1
Samaje Perine223006%2.8
DeAndre Hopkins232909%2.5
Noah Gray332309%3.0
Carson Steele11803%0.4
Mecole Hardman11803%-0.4
Kareem Hunt11403%0.0
Joseph Fortson01003%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nick Bolton720.000
Nazeeh Johnson230.000
Trent McDuffie220.000
George Karlaftis131.001
Justin Reid310.000
Drue Tranquill221.000
Malik Herring210.000
Bryan Cook300.000
Leo Chenal301.000
Felix Anudike-Uzomah210.000

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Gardner Minshew24/302092056.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Alexander Mattison14151.10-8.2
Tre Tucker177.000.3
Gardner Minshew263.000.3
D.J. Turner144.00-0.2
Ameer Abdullah122.00-0.4
Zamir White2-1-0.50-1.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Brock Bowers5558019%5.9
Jakobi Meyers6752126%5.5
Alexander Mattison5529019%2.0
D.J. Turner4428115%4.8
Tre Tucker2326011%0.5
Ameer Abdullah12907%0.3
John Samuel Shenker11704%0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Robert Spillane660.000
Trevon Moehrig340.011
Divine Deablo330.000
Jakorian Bennett330.000
Jack Jones410.001
K'Lavon Chaisson220.000
Charles Snowden130.000
Adam Butler130.000
Nate Hobbs120.001
Tyree Wilson211.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -9
Closing total
42
KC moneyline
-440
LV moneyline
+340

Chiefs closed -9, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 42; the game landed 47 — over by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
KC 7 days · LV 7 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Antonio Pierce

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.