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Kansas City Chiefs 27 at Las Vegas Raiders 20. Final.
Chiefs -9 no coverO 42 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 8
Kansas City Chiefs 27, Raiders 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 5:49, 1st and 16, on Trevon Moehrig — 13.0 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 5:49 · 1st and 16
Trevon Moehrig
Raiders
(5:49) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Moehrig (95-J.Jenkins) at KC 15. 7-T.Moehrig to KC 3 for 12 yards (62-J.Thuney).
Dome
Chiefs closed -9, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Kansas City Chiefs 27–20. Biggest swing: Q3 5:49, Raiders +13.0% win probability on one snap.
13.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Daniel CarlsonRaidersQ2 10:18(10:18) 2-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
9.5pts
Gardner MinshewChiefsQ3 3:31(3:31) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at KC 8 for -5 yards (98-T.Wharton).
8.9pts
What separated them
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 12 of 15 on third down, against Raiders at 6 of 13 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Chiefs won this one — -0.10 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.54 expected points per carry.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.18 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.06 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Raiders at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Chiefs159 of 172 plays carry both curves
(5:49) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Moehrig (95-J.Jenkins) at KC 15. 7-T.Moehrig to KC 3 for 12 yards (62-J.Thuney).
Swing +13.0 for RaidersExpected points +5.04 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 18 points higher than the market did.play 110
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 5:49KC +13% win prob(5:49) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Moehrig (95-J.Jenkins) at KC 15. 7-T.Moehrig to KC 3 for 12 yards (62-J.Thuney).
2nd · 10:18LV +10% win prob(10:18) 2-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
3rd · 3:31KC +9% win prob(3:31) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at KC 8 for -5 yards (98-T.Wharton).
4th · 8:06KC +9% win prob(8:06) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at LV 37 for 0 yards (69-M.Pennel). FUMBLES (69-M.Pennel) [69-M.Pennel], RECOVERED by KC-23-D.Tranquill at LV 41. 23-D.Tranquill to LV 38 for 3 yards (74-K.Miller).
2nd · 8:59LV +8% win prob(8:59) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-X.Worthy to KC 45 for 7 yards (0-J.Bennett).
1st · 2:42LV +7% win prob(2:42) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short left to 16-J.Meyers for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Travis Kelce's 5-yard touchdown catch with 2:00 left in the 2nd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Chiefs ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Chiefs: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.06Raiders: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.33Chiefs: +0.33 expected points added per play
+0.21Raiders: +0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Chiefs: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.54Raiders: −0.54 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 64 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Raiders’s 53 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 4, Raiders 4.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LV's blitz rate sent turned over: 58.3% in week 7 against 29.3% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · +8.7 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Raiders7.3%
inside their normal wobble · −5.2 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteKC's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 14.2 points above their season mean of 35.8% and 1.6 times their own 9.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
74Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%72 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%72 snaps
64Wanya MorrisT · Every snap100%72 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%72 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%72 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Heavy rotation79%57 snaps
84Justin WatsonWR · Heavy rotation76%55 snaps
83Noah GrayTE · Heavy rotation72%52 snaps
29Kareem HuntRB · Heavy rotation58%42 snaps
1Xavier WorthyWR · Heavy rotation53%38 snaps
8DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational32%23 snaps
34Samaje PerineRB · Rotational31%22 snaps
17Mecole HardmanWR · Rotational29%21 snaps
89Joseph FortsonTE · Rotational26%19 snaps
12Jared WileyTE · Situational24%17 snaps
42Carson SteeleRB · Situational11%8 snaps
80Montrell WashingtonWR · Situational7%5 snaps
66Mike CaliendoG · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Michael DannaDEMarlon TuipulotuDTC.J. HansonGClyde Edwards-HelaireRBEthan DriskellTJuJu Smith-SchusterWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Carson WentzQB
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
58Jackson Powers-JohnsonG · Every snap100%58 snaps
74Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%58 snaps
61Jordan MeredithG · Every snap100%58 snaps
—Delmar GlazeT · Every snap100%58 snaps
15Gardner MinshewQB · Every snap100%58 snaps
89Brock BowersTE · Full-time91%53 snaps
11Tre TuckerWR · Full-time91%53 snaps
16Jakobi MeyersWR · Full-time81%47 snaps
68Andre JamesC · Heavy rotation72%42 snaps
22Alexander MattisonRB · Heavy rotation66%38 snaps
19DJ TurnerWR · Heavy rotation53%31 snaps
—John Samuel ShenkerTE · Rotational40%23 snaps
8Ameer AbdullahRB · Rotational29%17 snaps
77Thayer Munford Jr.T · Rotational29%17 snaps
65Cody WhitehairG · Rotational28%16 snaps
81Alex BachmanWR · Situational10%6 snaps
88Justin ShorterTE · Situational3%2 snaps
3Zamir WhiteRB · Situational3%2 snaps
75Andrus PeatG · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Sam WebbCBZachary CarterDTDylan ParhamGKana'i MaugaILBDylan LaubeRBTyreik McAllisterRBHarrison BryantTE
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass−21% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(5:49) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Moehrig (95-J.Jenkins) at KC 15. 7-T.Moehrig to KC 3 for 12 yards (62-J.Thuney).
Q3 5:49 · Chiefs · 1st & 16 at KC 2 · gained nothing · -5.04 EP · −21.3% win probability
157 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 87 yards from the KC 8 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
48%
Yards
562
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.1981%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23-0.0452%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR19-0.0737%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18+0.7683%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.4289%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.9425%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.480%
Chiefs0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Raiders1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Raiders0 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Chiefs6Raiders0
Chiefs7Raiders0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Raiders 1
Chiefs7Raiders6
Chiefs7Raiders7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Chiefs 7
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Raiders 46
The period ended3 plays, from the Raiders 14 to the Raiders 17
2nd quarter48 plays
Chiefs7Raiders10
Field goal9 plays, from the Raiders 36 to the Chiefs 33
Chiefs13Raiders10
Chiefs14Raiders10
Touchdown19 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Raiders 5
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 32
Chiefs17Raiders10
Field goal11 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Raiders 24
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 31
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 8 to the Chiefs 9
Chiefs17Raiders13
Field goal12 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the Chiefs 4
How the play was built
A man in motion.
It should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted4 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Chiefs 3 to the Chiefs 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Chiefs 8 to the Chiefs 26
4th quarter51 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and seven backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Chiefs20Raiders13
Field goal14 plays, from the Chiefs 36 to the Raiders 5
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 37
Chiefs26Raiders13
Chiefs27Raiders13
Touchdown13 plays, from the Raiders 38 to the Raiders 8
Chiefs27Raiders19
Chiefs27Raiders20
Touchdown16 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Chiefs 11
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
