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2024 Week 8 · Thu, Oct 24, 2024 · SoFi Stadium

Minnesota Vikings

20

Los Angeles RamsWinner

30

MIN -3 upsetO 47.5 ✓Dome

Los Angeles Rams 30–20. Biggest swing: Q3 2:40, LA +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LA ↑MIN ↓
Q3 · 2:40MIN 17 — LA 20LA ball · 2nd & 8MIN 58%

(2:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 15-D.Robinson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIN-1-S.Griffin, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 2:40LA +15% win prob(2:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 15-D.Robinson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIN-1-S.Griffin, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
  2. Q4 · 15:00LA +13% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 33-A.Jones ran ob at LA 23 for 25 yards.
  3. Q4 · 6:23LA +11% win prob(6:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-D.Robinson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q3 · 4:04LA +11% win prob(4:04) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 17-P.Nacua to MIN 27 for 19 yards (24-C.Bynum) [43-A.Van Ginkel].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:48MIN Touchdown

    (10:48) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 84-J.Oliver for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 7 — LA 0
  2. Q1 · 6:42LA Touchdown

    (6:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 7 — LA 7
  3. Q1 · 0:58MIN Touchdown

    (:58) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-T.Sherfield for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 14 — LA 7
  4. Q2 · 10:11LA Touchdown

    (10:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 10-C.Kupp for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 14 — LA 14
  5. Q3 · 6:25MIN Field goal

    (6:25) 16-W.Reichard 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: MIN 17 — LA 14
  6. Q3 · 2:40LA Touchdown

    (2:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 15-D.Robinson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIN-1-S.Griffin, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 17 — LA 21
  7. Q4 · 12:51MIN Field goal

    (12:51) 16-W.Reichard 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: MIN 20 — LA 21
  8. Q4 · 6:23LA Touchdown

    (6:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-D.Robinson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 20 — LA 28
  9. Q4 · 1:42LA Safety

    (1:42) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (0-B.Young).

    Score after this play: MIN 20 — LA 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricVikingsRams
Offensive plays4963
Total yards277390 (edge)
Yards per play5.76.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.110.19 (edge)
Success rate45%48% (edge)
Dropback rate59%54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.300.47 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.17-0.14 (edge)
Third downs2/74/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)37 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1721 (edge)
Sacks taken30 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs 0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

25/34, 279 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

15.9 expected points added · +4.5% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Sam DarnoldQB

18/25, 240 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.5 expected points added · +11.8% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

23 att, 97 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Aaron JonesRB

19 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

-3.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

8/9 for 115 yds, 0 TD

39% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Puka NacuaWR

7/9 for 106 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 8.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MINMIN 3010704:17Touchdown +7
2LALA 3011634:05Touchdown +7
3MINMIN 3012705:45Touchdown +7
4LALA 3012655:48Touchdown +7
5MINMIN 30560:59Punt
6LALA 127254:20Punt
7MINMIN 424-11:56Punt
8LALA 119392:15Punt
9MINMIN 3220:35End of half
10LALA 307342:52Interception
11MINMIN 2711685:46Field goal +3
12LALA 3010753:46Touchdown +7
13MINMIN 3010534:49Field goal +3
14LALA 3012546:30Touchdown +7
15MINMIN 306142:06Punt
16LALA 197352:25Punt
17MINMIN 52-50:10Safety
18LAMIN 33401:36End of game

8 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 75 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Darnold18/252402038.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones19583.10-3.8
Sam Darnold362.000.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Justin Jefferson89115039%7.3
Aaron Jones223709%3.8
Josh Oliver223019%2.7
Jordan Addison2322013%2.7
Jalen Nailor2416017%-2.2
Johnny Mundt121009%0.0
Trent Sherfield111014%1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ivan Pace760.000
Josh Metellus340.000
Camryn Bynum340.001
Harrison Smith520.000
Stephon Gilmore410.001
Andrew Van Ginkel130.000
Jonathan Greenard120.001
Byron Murphy200.012
Patrick Jones110.000
Jonathan Bullard110.000

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Matthew Stafford25/3427941015.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kyren Williams23974.20-2.3
Blake Corum492.30-1.6
Puka Nacua252.50-0.2
Matthew Stafford3-4-1.30-2.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Puka Nacua79106026%8.4
Cooper Kupp5851124%1.2
Demarcus Robinson233529%2.2
Kyren Williams5719121%-0.1
Hunter Long111803%1.0
Tutu Atwell121806%1.1
Colby Parkinson221706%1.7
Blake Corum11903%0.3
Tyler Johnson11603%0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Christian Rozeboom240.000
Cobie Durant500.000
Kobie Turner130.000
Omar Speights310.000
Jared Verse121.500
Darious Williams300.000
Michael Hoecht120.500
Quentin Lake110.000
Byron Young111.000
Braden Fiske200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIN -3
Closing total
47.5
MIN moneyline
-155
LA moneyline
+130

Vikings closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 50 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
MIN 4 days · LA 4 days
Coaches
Kevin O'Connell vs Sean McVay