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Minnesota Vikings 20 at Los Angeles Rams 30. Final.
Vikings -3 upsetO 47.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 8
Los Angeles Rams 30, Vikings 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 2:40, 2nd and 8, on Demarcus Robinson — 14.5 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 2:40 · 2nd and 8
Demarcus Robinson
Rams
(2:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 15-D.Robinson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIN-1-S.Griffin, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Dome
Vikings closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Los Angeles Rams 30–20. Biggest swing: Q3 2:40, Rams +14.5% win probability on one snap.
14.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Aaron JonesVikingsQ4 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 33-A.Jones ran ob at LA 23 for 25 yards.
13.2pts
Demarcus RobinsonRamsQ4 6:23(6:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-D.Robinson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Vikings at 3 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Rams won this one — 4 of 9 on third down, against Vikings at 2 of 7 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Rams at 1 giveaway.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.47 expected points per dropback, against Vikings at +0.30 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Vikings155 of 165 plays carry both curves
(2:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 15-D.Robinson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIN-1-S.Griffin, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Swing +14.5 for RamsExpected points +2.87 for RamsThe model had Rams 14 points higher than the market did.play 115
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 2:40LA +15% win prob(2:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 15-D.Robinson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIN-1-S.Griffin, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
4th · 15:00LA +13% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 33-A.Jones ran ob at LA 23 for 25 yards.
4th · 6:23LA +11% win prob(6:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-D.Robinson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 4:04LA +11% win prob(4:04) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 17-P.Nacua to MIN 27 for 19 yards (24-C.Bynum) [43-A.Van Ginkel].
4th · 9:20LA +10% win prob(9:20) 23-K.Williams right tackle to MIN 26 for 3 yards (2-S.Gilmore).
3rd · 13:36LA +9% win prob(13:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 17-P.Nacua pushed ob at 50 for 19 yards (2-S.Gilmore).
1st · 6:42
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Demarcus Robinson's 25-yard touchdown catch with 2:40 left in the 3rd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:48Josh Oliver·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+77–0
1st6:42Kyren Williams·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+77–7
1st0:58Trent Sherfield·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+714–7
2nd10:11Cooper Kupp·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+714–14
3rd6:25Will Reichard·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+317–14
3rd2:40Demarcus Robinson·25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+717–21
4th12:51Will Reichard·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+320–21
4th6:23Demarcus Robinson·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+720–28
4th1:42Byron Young·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+220–30
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryRams
Vikings1–8Rams
277Total yards390
5.7Yards per play6.2
45%Success rate48%
29%Third-down rate44%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
3Explosive plays7
17First downs21
3Sacks taken0
0Turnovers1
The read
Rams ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Vikings: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.19Rams: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.30Vikings: +0.30 expected points added per play
+0.47Rams: +0.47 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Vikings: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.14Rams: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 49 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Rams’s 63 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 4, Rams 5.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs 0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIN's pass rate over expected, −1.8 pts, is past their previous low of +0.9 pts in week 5 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 8.
49 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.4 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−1.70× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Rams17.2%
inside their normal wobble · +5.7 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NoteMIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.9%, 10.4 points below their season mean of 16.3% and 1.7 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Darnold pass+16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(15:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 33-A.Jones ran ob at LA 23 for 25 yards.
Q4 15:00 · Vikings · 3rd & 3 at LA 48 · gained 25 · +2.63 EP · +15.9% win probability
153 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 70 yards from the MIN 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
47%
Yards
662
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.4076%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.0170%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.1525%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.3447%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.0720%
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Vikings6Rams0
Vikings7Rams0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Rams 5
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Vikings7Rams6
Vikings7Rams7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Vikings 5
Vikings13Rams7
Vikings14Rams7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Rams 10
The period ended6 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 46
2nd quarter45 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.0 seconds
Vikings14Rams13
Vikings14Rams14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 49 to the Vikings 6
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Vikings 31
Punt10 plays, from the Rams 12 to the Rams 22
Punt5 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 11 to midfield
The period ended4 plays, from the Vikings 3 to the Vikings 5
3rd quarter36 plays
Intercepted8 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Vikings 46
Vikings17Rams14
Field goal11 plays, from the Vikings 27 to the Rams 4
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Vikings17Rams20
Vikings17Rams21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Vikings 25
The period ended6 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Vikings 45
4th quarter43 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Vikings20Rams21
Field goal6 plays, from the Rams 48 to the Rams 17
Vikings20Rams27
Vikings20Rams28
Touchdown14 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Vikings 10
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Rams 43
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 19 to the Vikings 46
Vikings20Rams30
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
