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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Saints177 of 187 plays carry both curves
(9:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-L.McConkey for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +10.9 for ChargersExpected points +5.07 for ChargersThe model had Saints 8 points higher than the market did.play 111
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 9:01LAC +11% win prob(9:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-L.McConkey for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:07LAC +11% win prob(14:07) 16-J.Scott punts 59 yards to NO 18, Center-47-J.Harris. 80-J.Jackson to NO 21 for 3 yards (84-S.Smartt).
1st · 5:10NO +7% win prob(5:10) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to NO 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 80-J.Jackson.
1st · 14:10NO +6% win prob(14:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 27-J.Dobbins (99-C.Young).
1st · 4:16NO +6% win prob(4:16) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler sacked at NO 30 for -8 yards (52-K.Mack).
2nd · 11:03LAC +6% win prob(11:03) (No Huddle) 18-S.Rattler pass short left to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at LAC 44 for 37 yards (3-D.James).
2nd · 2:01
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cameron Dicker's 46-yard field goal with 15:00 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:27Saints·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+22–0
2nd15:00Cameron Dicker·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.HarrisLead never changed again+32–3
2nd1:40J.K. Dobbins·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+62–9
2nd0:09Blake Grupe·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder M.Hayball · snap Z.Wood+35–9
Chargers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.20Saints: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.00Chargers: −0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.24Saints: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.12Chargers: +0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Saints: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.19Chargers: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 68 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Chargers’s 63 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Saints 2, Chargers 4.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 57.1% in week 7 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.3 points.
NO's sack or hit rate turned over: 0.0% in week 7 against 15.8% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.53× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Chargers14.3%
right on their number · +0.2 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
NoteNO's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 35.2 points below their season mean of 35.2% and 1.2 times their own 28.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive
75Taliese FuagaT · Every snap100%73 snaps
62Lucas PatrickG · Every snap100%73 snaps
51Cesar RuizC · Every snap100%73 snaps
70Trevor PenningT · Every snap100%73 snaps
61Connor McGovernC · Every snap100%73 snaps
12Chris OlaveWR · Heavy rotation79%58 snaps
87Foster MoreauTE · Heavy rotation78%57 snaps
84Mason TiptonWR · Heavy rotation77%56 snaps
18Spencer RattlerQB · Heavy rotation62%45 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Heavy rotation55%40 snaps
13Equanimeous St. BrownWR · Rotational47%34 snaps
83Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational44%32 snaps
7Taysom HillTE · Rotational40%29 snaps
3Jake HaenerQB · Rotational38%28 snaps
21Jamaal WilliamsRB · Rotational32%23 snaps
16Bub MeansWR · Situational19%14 snaps
46Adam PrenticeFB · Situational16%12 snaps
25Kendre MillerRB · Situational14%10 snaps
Inactive · 7
Khristian BoydDTNick SaldiveriGJaylan FordILBDerek CarrQBDallin HolkerTECedrick Wilson Jr.WRMarquez Valdes-ScantlingWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Herbert pass+12% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(9:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-L.McConkey for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 9:01 · Chargers · 2nd & 9 at LAC 40 · gained 60 · +5.07 EP · +12.1% win probability
175 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 182. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 90 yards from the LAC 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
36%
Yards
744
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.1274%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27-0.0778%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-0.3778%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.0223%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.3260%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.0250%
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.3320%
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5+0.8940%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Chargers3 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Chargers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 21 to the Chargers 47
Saints2Chargers0
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 22
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 34 to the Saints 39
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 17 to the Chargers 45
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 16 to the Saints 38
The period ended6 plays, from the Chargers 16 to the Saints 32
2nd quarter55 plays
Saints2Chargers3
Field goal1 play
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 33
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 13 to the Chargers 44
Saints2Chargers9
Touchdown22 plays, from the Chargers 10 to the Saints 1
Saints5Chargers9
Field goal12 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Chargers 22
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 40 to the Saints 47
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 10 to the Chargers 41
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 5 to the Saints 20
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Saints5Chargers15
Saints5Chargers16
Touchdown3 plays, from the Chargers 39 to the Chargers 40
Punt9 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Chargers 35
Punt4 plays
Saints8Chargers16
Field goal8 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Chargers 25
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 34 to the Chargers 47
4th quarter50 plays
Saints8Chargers19
Field goal6 plays, from the Chargers 49 to the Saints 11
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 47
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 7 to the Chargers 10
No good7 plays, from the Saints 46 to the Chargers 21
Saints8Chargers25
Saints8Chargers26
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chargers 34 to the Saints 9
The period ended15 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Chargers 3
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -7
Closing total
41.5
Saints moneyline
+250
Chargers moneyline
-310
Chargers closed -7 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 34 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Alan Eck
Rest
Saints 10 days · Chargers 6 days
Coaches
Dennis Allen vs Jim Harbaugh
LAC +5% win prob
(2:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to 87-S.Fehoko. PENALTY on NO-23-M.Lattimore, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at NO 20 - No Play.
1st · 7:12LAC +5% win prob(7:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 15-L.McConkey to LAC 43 for 15 yards (14-K.McKinstry).
