2024 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 27, 2024 · SoFi Stadium

New Orleans Saints

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

LAC -7 ✓U 41.5 ✓DomeChargers closed -7 and covered, winning by 18.

Los Angeles Chargers 26–8 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 9:01, LAC +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 9:01NO 5 — LAC 15LAC ball · 2nd & 9LAC 81%

(9:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-L.McConkey for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 9:01LAC +11% win prob(9:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-L.McConkey for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 14:07LAC +11% win prob(14:07) 16-J.Scott punts 59 yards to NO 18, Center-47-J.Harris. 80-J.Jackson to NO 21 for 3 yards (84-S.Smartt).
Q1 · 5:10NO +7% win prob(5:10) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to NO 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 80-J.Jackson.
Q1 · 14:10NO +6% win prob(14:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 27-J.Dobbins (99-C.Young).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:27NO Safety
(10:27) (Punt formation) 16-J.Scott Aborted. 47-J.Harris FUMBLES at LAC 7, recovered by LAC-16-J.Scott at LAC 0. 16-J.Scott to LAC -5 for -5 yards (7-T.Hill). FUMBLES (7-T.Hill), touched at LAC -5, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY.
Score after this play: NO 2 — LAC 0
Q2 · 15:00LAC Field goal
(15:00) 11-C.Dicker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: NO 2 — LAC 3
Q2 · 1:40LAC Touchdown
(1:40) 68-J.Salyer reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: NO 2 — LAC 9
Q2 · 0:09NO Field goal
(:09) 19-B.Grupe 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.
Score after this play: NO 5 — LAC 9
Q3 · 9:01LAC Touchdown
(9:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-L.McConkey for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 5 — LAC 16
Q3 · 1:09NO Field goal
(1:09) 19-B.Grupe 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.
Score after this play: NO 8 — LAC 16
Q4 · 11:59LAC Field goal
(11:59) 11-C.Dicker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: NO 8 — LAC 19
Q4 · 3:30LAC Touchdown
(3:30) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 15-L.McConkey for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 8 — LAC 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Chargers
Offensive plays	68	63
Total yards	366	379 (edge)
Yards per play	5.4	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.20	-0.00 (edge)
Success rate	32% (edge)	32%
Dropback rate	72%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24	0.12 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11 (edge)	-0.19
Third downs	2/17	3/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	13	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	3 (edge)
Turnovers	0	0

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

20/32, 279 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

2.1 expected points added · -3.1% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Spencer RattlerQB

12/24, 156 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-5.9 expected points added · -18.3% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

10 att, 67 yds, 0 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

J.K. DobbinsRB

17 att, 57 yds, 1 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Ladd McConkeyWR

6/6 for 111 yds, 2 TD

20% of team targets · 12.6 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Chris OlaveWR

8/14 for 107 yds, 0 TD

37% of team targets · -2.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	LAC 25	5	-2	1:06	Punt
2	NO	NO 21	5	32	2:39	Punt
3	LAC	LAC 20	4	2	0:55	Safety
4	NO	NO 34	5	15	1:53	Punt
5	LAC	LAC 17	7	20	3:25	Punt
6	NO	NO 16	5	22	2:24	Punt
7	LAC	LAC 16	6	56	2:43	Field goal +3
8	NO	NO 30	6	8	2:00	Punt
9	LAC	LAC 25	4	8	1:30	Punt
10	NO	NO 13	6	43	1:41	Punt
11	LAC	LAC 10	16	78	8:07	Touchdown +6
12	NO	NO 30	10	52	1:32	Field goal +3
13	LAC	LAC 30	2	0	0:05	End of half
14	NO	NO 40	5	7	1:42	Punt
15	LAC	LAC 10	5	31	1:30	Punt
16	NO	NO 5	5	9	2:12	Punt
17	LAC	LAC 39	3	61	0:48	Touchdown +7
18	NO	NO 30	8	20	2:16	Punt
19	LAC	LAC 20	4	-4	1:42	Punt
20	NO	NO 30	8	45	3:45	Field goal +3
21	LAC	LAC 34	8	65	4:10	Field goal +3
22	NO	NO 30	6	17	1:20	Punt
23	LAC	LAC 7	4	-2	1:44	Punt
24	NO	NO 46	6	33	2:06	Missed field goal
25	LAC	LAC 34	10	66	3:23	Touchdown +7
26	NO	NO 30	12	63	3:22	End of game

7 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 78 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	Sacked	EPA
Spencer Rattler	12/24	156	3	-5.9
Jake Haener	9/17	122	2	-4.7
Taysom Hill	1/1	3	0	-0.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alvin Kamara	10	67	6.7	-1.5
Taysom Hill	4	20	5.0	0.2
Kendre Miller	3	16	5.3	0.1
Jake Haener	2	10	5.0	-0.7
Jamaal Williams	2	4	2.0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Olave	8	14	107	37%	-2.7
Alvin Kamara	6	11	55	29%	-2.9
Juwan Johnson	3	4	48	11%	2.7
Bub Means	1	1	36	3%	4.1
Taysom Hill	2	4	21	11%	-2.1
Mason Tipton	2	2	14	5%	-0.8
Adam Prentice	0	1	0	3%	-0.5
Foster Moreau	0	1	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Pete Werner	7	2	0.0	0
Demario Davis	5	4	0.0	0
Jordan Howden	4	1	0.0	0
Kool-Aid McKinstry	4	1	0.0	1
Tyrann Mathieu	5	0	0.0	0
Khalen Saunders	3	1	1.0	0
Alontae Taylor	1	2	0.5	1
Ugochukwu Amadi	3	0	1.0	0
Carl Granderson	2	1	0.0	0
Chase Young	1	1	0.5	1

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	20/32	279	2	0	3	2.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
J.K. Dobbins	17	57	3.4	1	-1.7
Justin Herbert	4	49	12.3	0	2.6
Kimani Vidal	6	16	2.7	0	-2.1
Hassan Haskins	1	0	0.0	0	-0.7
J.K. Scott	1	0	0.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ladd McConkey	6	6	111	2	20%	12.6
Josh Palmer	2	4	72	0	13%	3.8
Will Dissly	5	7	41	0	23%	-0.9
Jalen Reagor	2	2	35	0	7%	3.0
J.K. Dobbins	4	7	11	0	23%	-6.6
Scott Matlock	1	1	9	0	3%	0.8
Simi Fehoko	0	2	0	0	7%	-1.4
Eric Tomlinson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Daiyan Henley	5	5	0.0	1
Derwin James	4	2	0.0	0
Alohi Gilman	4	1	0.0	0
Elijah Molden	2	3	0.0	0
Cam Hart	4	1	0.0	0
Bud Dupree	4	0	1.0	0
Tarheeb Still	3	0	0.0	0
Morgan Fox	2	1	0.0	0
Teair Tart	2	0	0.0	1
Nick Niemann	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -7
Closing total: 41.5
NO moneyline: +250
LAC moneyline: -310

Chargers closed -7 and covered, winning by 18.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 34 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alan Eck
Rest: NO 10 days · LAC 6 days
Coaches: Dennis Allen vs Jim Harbaugh