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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
New York Giants 18 at Pittsburgh Steelers 26. Final.
Steelers -6 ✓O 37.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 8
Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Giants 18 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 4:58, 4th and 17 — 13.1 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:58 · 4th and 17
Unnamed on the sheet
Steelers
(4:58) 38-M.Haack punts 54 yards to PIT 27, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 19-C.Austin for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-45-T.Fox, Illegal Formation, declined.
Steelers closed -6 and covered, winning by 8.
Pittsburgh Steelers 26–18. Biggest swing: Q3 4:58, Steelers +13.1% win probability on one snap.
13.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Darius SlaytonGiantsQ2 1:16(1:16) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep middle to 86-D.Slayton to PIT 45 for 36 yards (25-D.Elliott).
11.7pts
Russell WilsonGiantsQ4 4:42(4:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at PIT 34 for 0 yards (sack split by 58-B.Okereke and 41-M.McFadden). FUMBLES (58-B.Okereke) [41-M.McFadden], RECOVERED by NYG-58-B.Okereke at PIT 37. 58-B.Okereke to PIT 37 for no gain (73-I.Seumalo).
11.1pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Steelers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Giants at 7 chunk plays.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Steelers won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Giants at 5 of 15 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Giants at 2 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Giants176 of 187 plays carry both curves
(4:58) 38-M.Haack punts 54 yards to PIT 27, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 19-C.Austin for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-45-T.Fox, Illegal Formation, declined.
Swing +13.1 for SteelersExpected points +4.65 for SteelersThe model had Giants 7 points higher than the market did.play 114
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 4:58NYG +13% win prob(4:58) 38-M.Haack punts 54 yards to PIT 27, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 19-C.Austin for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-45-T.Fox, Illegal Formation, declined.
2nd · 1:16PIT +12% win prob(1:16) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep middle to 86-D.Slayton to PIT 45 for 36 yards (25-D.Elliott).
4th · 4:42NYG +11% win prob(4:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at PIT 34 for 0 yards (sack split by 58-B.Okereke and 41-M.McFadden). FUMBLES (58-B.Okereke) [41-M.McFadden], RECOVERED by NYG-58-B.Okereke at PIT 37. 58-B.Okereke to PIT 37 for no gain (73-I.Seumalo).
1st · 8:24PIT +8% win prob(8:24) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep middle to 86-D.Slayton to PIT 16 for 43 yards (26-D.Jackson) [56-A.Highsmith].
2nd · 2:12NYG +7% win prob(2:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at PIT 43 for -10 yards (0-B.Burns).
4th · 0:42NYG +7% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 26-D.Singletary INTERCEPTED by 31-B.Bishop at PIT 29. 31-B.Bishop pushed ob at PIT 34 for 5 yards (26-D.Singletary).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Calvin Austin's 73-yard return touchdown with 4:58 left in the 3rd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:23Chris Boswell·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.Kuntz+30–3
1st5:23Greg Joseph·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap C.Kreiter+33–3
1st3:08Chris Boswell·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.Kuntz+33–6
2nd12:43Greg Joseph·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap C.Kreiter+36–6
2nd8:15Chris Boswell·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.Kuntz+36–9
2nd0:25Greg Joseph·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap C.Kreiter+39–9
3rd4:58Calvin Austin·73-yd return TD73-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kickLead never changed again+79–16
4th13:22Calvin Austin·29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+79–23
4th11:16Tyrone Tracy·45-yd TD run45-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+615–23
4th7:19Chris Boswell·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.Kuntz+315–26
4th5:10Greg Joseph·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap C.Kreiter+318–26
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categorySteelers
Giants0–7Steelers
394Total yards427
5.8Yards per play7.0
41%Success rate46%
33%Third-down rate46%
0Red-zone touchdowns0
7Explosive plays10
17First downs18
4Sacks taken4
2Turnovers1
The read
Steelers ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Giants: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.08Steelers: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.04Giants: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.10Steelers: +0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.19Giants: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.06Steelers: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 68 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Steelers’s 61 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Giants 3, Steelers 5.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PIT's sack or hit rate, 29.5%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 8 — 3.1 points clear of the next team along.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYG's play-action rate, 9.1%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 8 — 2.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 15.4% in week 7.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 15 pts
leaned — got home · +10.1 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.33× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Steelers29.5%
leaned — got home · +12.9 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.69× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NotePIT's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 29.5%, 12.9 points above their season mean of 16.6% and 1.7 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Haack punts−13% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:58) 38-M.Haack punts 54 yards to PIT 27, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 19-C.Austin for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-45-T.Fox, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q3 4:58 · Giants · 4th & 17 at NYG 19 · gained nothing · -4.65 EP · −12.9% win probability
174 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 182. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 80 yards from the PIT 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
44%
Yards
820
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59+0.1264%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.0961%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.4443%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9-0.5122%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.5157%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Giants0Steelers3
Field goal13 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Giants 11
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Giants3Steelers3
Field goal10 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Steelers 11
Giants3Steelers6
Field goal8 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Giants 7
The period ended9 plays, from the Giants 34 to the Steelers 36
2nd quarter52 plays
Giants6Steelers6
Field goal8 plays, from the Steelers 33 to the Steelers 16
Giants6Steelers9
Field goal14 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Giants 9
The period ended1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Giants 37
Punt9 plays, from the Steelers 18 to the Giants 47
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Giants9Steelers9
Field goal10 plays, from the Giants 17 to the Steelers 26
The period ended5 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 43
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Steelers 31
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 16 to the Steelers 21
Giants9Steelers15
Touchdown6 plays, from the Giants 26 to the Giants 30
Giants9Steelers16
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Giants 34
The period ended8 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 38
4th quarter58 plays
Giants9Steelers22
Giants9Steelers23
Touchdown5 plays, from the Giants 31 to the Giants 29
Giants15Steelers23
Touchdown8 plays, from the Giants 45 to the Steelers 45
Giants15Steelers26
Field goal8 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Giants 5
Giants18Steelers26
Field goal9 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Steelers 30
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 34
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Steelers 37 to the Steelers 19
Punt10 plays, from the Steelers 28 to the Giants 43
Intercepted8 plays, from the Giants 7 to the Steelers 35
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
