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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 27, 2024 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 8
It turned at Q4 0:25, 4th and 1, on Rhamondre Stevenson — 36.2 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:25 · 4th and 1
Rhamondre Stevenson
Patriots
(:25) 62-S.Sow and 72-Z.Thomas reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
New England Patriots 25–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:25, Patriots +36.2% win probability on one snap.
36.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Patriots at 5 chunk plays.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Jets owned this one and still lost it — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.11 expected points per carry.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Patriots won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Jets at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 18.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(:25) 62-S.Sow and 72-Z.Thomas reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Rhamondre Stevenson's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 0:25 left in the 4th put New England Patriots ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Tyler Conklin2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron Rodgers · kick no good, wide left+66–7
Rhamondre Stevenson1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+822–258 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jetscategory by categoryPatriots
Jets ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 58 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Patriots’s 64 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Jets 5, Patriots 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's play-action rate, 43.3%, is past their previous high of 28.1% in week 5 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
NYJ's early-down pass rate, 46.8%, is past their previous low of 49.1% in week 3 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
NYJ's pass rate over expected turned over: +8.2 pts in week 7 against −6.0 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
NE's pass rate over expected turned over: +4.4 pts in week 7 against −8.7 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
NE's sack or hit rate turned over: 0.0% in week 7 against 16.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Jets-6.0 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.1 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−1.58× that swing) · 57 snaps
Patriots-8.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −5.6 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−1.06× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 28% to 85%
Tendencies room →Jets46.8%leaned — ran early · −13.1 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.85× that swing) · 47 early downs
Patriots51.1%right on their number · −5.3 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 46%
Tendencies room →Jets43.3%off script — faked the run · +18.9 vs their 24.4%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+2.50× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Patriots18.9%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -54% to 125%
Fourth Down room →Jets—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 55.9%.
Patriots25.0%right on their number · −7.2 vs their 32.2%, and they swing ±33.7 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 69%
Tendencies room →Jets27.0%right on their number · −1.4 vs their 28.4%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Patriots40.0%right on their number · +4.8 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±13.1 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 36%
Tendencies room →Jets8.1%inside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Patriots16.7%inside their normal wobble · +6.5 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NYJ's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 43.3%, 18.9 points above their season mean of 24.4% and 2.5 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
49 dressed · 7 inactive · 5 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 5
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYJ
17/28, 233 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
4.2 expected points added · +8.3% completion over expected
Passing · NE
15/24, 132 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
2.7 expected points added · -0.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Drake Maye banked 7.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Bell Cow Back | 23.5 | +3.7 | 81% | 70% | 10% | 0% | 20 car, 48 yd, 2 TD · 3/3, 17 yd |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 17.3 | +0.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/28, 233 yd, 2 TD |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.3 | +2.3 | 98% | 97% | 32% | 62% | 5/8, 113 yd |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Rotational Receiver | 13.2 | +3.9 | 81% | 87% | 16% | 15% | 3/4, 42 yd, 1 TD |
| Drake MayeQB | 11.5 | +7.3 | 30% | — | 0% | — | 3/6, 23 yd · 3 car, 46 yd, 1 TD |
| Breece HallRB · Committee Back | 9.9 | −3.9 | 74% | 80% | 12% | 1% | 16 car, 80 yd · 1/3, 9 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Featured Receiver | 9.5 | +1.3 | 85% | 76% | 21% | 15% | 5/6, 45 yd |
| Davante AdamsWR · Featured Receiver | 9.4 | −1.4 | 94% | 100% | 24% | 20% | 4/6, 54 yd |
| Braelon AllenRB · Committee Back | 9.2 | +1.9 | 31% | 17% | 0% | — | 12 car, 32 yd, 1 TD |
| Jacoby BrissettQB · Starter QB | 8.4 | −7.6 | 70% | — | 0% | — | 15/24, 132 yd · 3 car, 11 yd |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Featured Receiver | 7.6 | −2.4 | 82% | 76% | 21% | 37% | 3/6, 46 yd |
| Xavier GipsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +2.8 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | −2.7 | 48% | 41% | 14% | 5% | 3/4, 15 yd |
| Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | +0.1 | 37% | 20% | 12% | 0% | 3/3, 14 yd |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −0.5 | 18% | 14% | 10% | 13% | 2/3, 20 yd |
| Demario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −0.7 | 57% | 59% | 10% | 4% | 2/3, 12 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB | 0.7 | −2.8 | 19% | 19% | 0% | — | 5 car, 7 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −6.0 | 78% | 70% | 10% | 16% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Javon BakerWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| K.J. OsbornWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | 13% | 11% | 3% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Isaiah DavisRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Mike WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.0 | 58% | 67% | 0% | 0% | No touches. |
| Irvin CharlesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:25) 62-S.Sow and 72-Z.Thomas reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 0:25 · Patriots · 4th & goal at NYJ 1 · gained 1 · +3.53 EP · +34.6% win probability
158 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 173 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 77 yards from the NE 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jets0
Patriots6Jets0Patriots7Jets6Patriots7Jets12Patriots7Jets13Patriots7Jets13Patriots13Jets13Patriots14How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
Jets16Patriots14How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
Jets16Patriots17How the play was built
A run-pass option, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Jets22Patriots17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a man in motion.
Jets22Patriots23How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Jets22Patriots25How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jets at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 17/28 | 233 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 16 | 80 | 5.0 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Braelon Allen | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 1 | +0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 5 | 8 | 113 | 0 | 32% | +6.9 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 24% | +1.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamien Sherwood | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Williams | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Oliver | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Carter |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 15/24 | 132 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2.7 |
| Drake Maye | 3/6 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −2.8 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_08_NYJ_NE
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Jets closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41; the game landed 47 — over by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Tyler Conklin | 3 | 4 | 42 | 1 | 16% | +2.8 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 12% | +0.3 |
| Breece Hall | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 12% | −2.7 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4% | +0.7 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| D.J. Reed | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chazz Surratt | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Solomon Thomas | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Mills | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Quinnen Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Kinlaw | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 20 | 48 | 2.4 | 2 | −0.3 |
| Drake Maye | 3 | 46 | 15.3 | 1 | +4.4 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Antonio Gibson | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayshon Boutte | 3 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 21% | −0.2 |
| Hunter Henry | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 | 21% | +4.5 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 10% | +1.2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 10% | +1.8 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 14% | +0.7 |
| Demario Douglas | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 10% | −0.3 |
| K.J. Osborn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −3.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Elliss | 3 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Jones | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Gonzalez | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dell Pettus | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deatrich Wise | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Raekwon McMillan | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marte Mapu | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keion White | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
