2024 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 27, 2024 · Gillette Stadium

New York Jets

New England PatriotsWinner

NYJ -7 upsetO 41 ✓Jets closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New England Patriots 25–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:25, NE +36% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:25NYJ 22 — NE 23NE ball · 4th & 1NYJ 56%

(:25) 62-S.Sow and 72-Z.Thomas reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:25NE +36% win prob(:25) 62-S.Sow and 72-Z.Thomas reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 · 1:29NE +36% win prob(1:29) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 9-K.Boutte to NYJ 9 for 34 yards (1-A.Gardner).
Q4 · 9:17NE +13% win prob(9:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 11-T.Thornton pushed ob at NYJ 3 for 14 yards (30-M.Carter).
Q4 · 0:15NYJ +12% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams to NYJ 46 for 16 yards (31-J.Jones; 0-C.Gonzalez) [53-C.Elliss].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 5:26NE Touchdown
(5:26) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles right end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — NE 7
Q1 · 1:27NYJ Touchdown
(1:27) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 83-T.Conklin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: NYJ 6 — NE 7
Q2 · 9:11NYJ Touchdown
(9:11) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 82-X.Gipson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 13 — NE 7
Q3 · 10:59NE Touchdown
(10:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 13 — NE 14
Q3 · 7:57NYJ Field goal
(7:57) 9-G.Zuerlein 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: NYJ 16 — NE 14
Q4 · 7:36NE Field goal
(7:36) 13-J.Slye 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NYJ 16 — NE 17
Q4 · 3:00NYJ Touchdown
(3:00) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: NYJ 22 — NE 17
Q4 · 0:25NE Touchdown
(:25) 62-S.Sow and 72-Z.Thomas reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: NYJ 22 — NE 25

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Patriots
Offensive plays	58	64
Total yards	336 (edge)	250
Yards per play	5.8 (edge)	3.9
Expected points added / play	0.10 (edge)	0.04
Success rate	48% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	52%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14	0.15 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.06 (edge)	-0.11
Third downs	4/10	7/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0	0

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Aaron RodgersQB

17/28, 233 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

4.2 expected points added · +8.3% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Jacoby BrissettQB

15/24, 132 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

2.7 expected points added · -0.1% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Breece HallRB

16 att, 80 yds, 0 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

20 att, 48 yds, 2 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Garrett WilsonWR

5/8 for 113 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Davante AdamsWR

4/6 for 54 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 30	5	5	1:31	Punt
2	NYJ	NE 47	4	7	1:43	Punt
3	NE	NE 23	11	67	6:28	Touchdown +7
4	NYJ	NYJ 30	9	35	3:55	Touchdown +6
5	NE	NE 20	7	11	2:38	Punt
6	NYJ	NYJ 40	9	55	4:39	Touchdown +7
7	NE	NE 30	5	5	2:13	Punt
8	NYJ	NYJ 15	10	50	5:02	Punt
9	NE	NE 20	3	9	1:51	End of half
10	NYJ	NYJ 30	5	6	1:50	Punt
11	NE	NYJ 26	6	26	2:15	Touchdown +7
12	NYJ	NYJ 30	8	59	3:01	Field goal +3
13	NE	NE 30	8	6	4:14	Punt
14	NYJ	NYJ 22	5	17	1:54	Punt
15	NE	NE 9	4	3	1:36	Punt
16	NYJ	NE 49	6	21	2:31	Missed field goal
17	NE	NE 34	14	46	5:05	Field goal +3
18	NYJ	NYJ 30	12	70	4:37	Touchdown +6
19	NE	NE 30	14	72	2:35	Touchdown +8
20	NYJ	NYJ 30	3	16	0:22	End of game

8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 72 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	17/28	233	2	0	1	4.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Breece Hall	16	80	5.0	0	1.4
Braelon Allen	12	32	2.7	1	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Garrett Wilson	5	8	113	0	32%	6.9
Davante Adams	4	6	54	0	24%	1.6
Tyler Conklin	3	4	42	1	16%	2.8
Jeremy Ruckert	3	3	14	0	12%	0.3
Breece Hall	1	3	9	0	12%	-2.7
Xavier Gipson	1	1	1	1	4%	0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jamien Sherwood	4	5	0.0	0
Quincy Williams	4	4	0.0	0
Isaiah Oliver	4	3	0.0	1
Michael Carter	3	2	0.0	0
D.J. Reed	3	1	0.0	0
Chazz Surratt	4	0	0.0	0
Solomon Thomas	1	3	0.0	0
Jalen Mills	0	3	0.0	2
Quinnen Williams	1	1	1.5	0
Javon Kinlaw	1	1	0.5	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jacoby Brissett	15/24	132	0	0	1	2.7
Drake Maye	3/6	23	0	0	1	-2.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	20	48	2.4	2	-0.3
Drake Maye	3	46	15.3	1	4.4
Jacoby Brissett	3	11	3.7	0	-0.7
Antonio Gibson	5	7	1.4	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Kayshon Boutte	3	6	46	21%	-0.2
Hunter Henry	5	6	45	21%	4.5
Tyquan Thornton	2	3	20	10%	1.2
Rhamondre Stevenson	3	3	17	10%	1.8
Austin Hooper	3	4	15	14%	0.7
Demario Douglas	2	3	12	10%	-0.3
K.J. Osborn	0	1	0	3%	-0.5
Kendrick Bourne	0	3	0	10%	-3.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Christian Elliss	3	6	1.0	1
Jahlani Tavai	4	2	0.0	0
Anfernee Jennings	3	2	0.0	0
Marcus Jones	4	1	0.0	1
Christian Gonzalez	2	3	0.0	1
Dell Pettus	1	4	0.0	0
Deatrich Wise	4	0	0.0	0
Raekwon McMillan	1	3	0.0	0
Marte Mapu	1	2	0.0	0
Keion White	3	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NYJ -7
Closing total: 41
NYJ moneyline: -305
NE moneyline: +245

Jets closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41; the game landed 47 — over by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 53°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: NYJ 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Robert Saleh vs Jerod Mayo

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.