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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 27, 2024 · Paycor Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 8
It turned at Q3 2:51, 2nd and 8, on DeVonta Smith — 17.7 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Philadelphia Eagles 37–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 2:51, Eagles +17.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 2:51 · 2nd and 8
DeVonta Smith
Eagles
(2:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 6-D.Smith for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Bengals at 3 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.71 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at +0.12 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.13 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.28 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 10 of 13 on third down, against Eagles at 6 of 12 on third down.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
(2:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 6-D.Smith for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
DeVonta Smith's 45-yard touchdown catch with 2:51 left in the 3rd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
DeVonta Smith45-yd TD catch45-yard touchdown catchfrom Jalen HurtsLead never changed again+724–1710 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categoryBengals
Eagles ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.71 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 59 snaps at a 36% dropback rate against Bengals’s 57 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 6, Bengals 3.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs -0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's early-down pass rate, 30.4%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 8 — 8.0 points clear of the next team along.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
PHI's sack or hit rate turned over: 28.2% in week 7 against 7.5% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points. · −0.7σ from their own normal
CIN's early-down pass rate turned over: 48.6% in week 7 against 65.1% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points. · +0.4σ from their own normal
CIN's pass rate over expected turned over: −4.8 pts in week 7 against +8.6 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points. · +0.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 26 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles-14.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their -9.0 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 59 snaps
Bengals8.6 ptsright on their number · +0.7 vs their 7.9 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 85%
Tendencies room →Eagles30.4%leaned — ran early · −13.4 vs their 43.8%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 46 early downs
Bengals65.1%right on their number · +3.0 vs their 62.1%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 46%
Tendencies room →Eagles33.3%leaned — faked the run · +9.5 vs their 23.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+1.08× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Bengals20.0%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 18.3%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25% to 117%
Fourth Down room →Eagles33.3%inside their normal wobble · −12.8 vs their 46.1%, and they swing ±24.7 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Bengals—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 45.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 52%
Tendencies room →Eagles32.5%inside their normal wobble · +8.7 vs their 23.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.89× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Bengals28.6%right on their number · +0.8 vs their 27.7%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 36%
Tendencies room →Eagles7.5%inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Bengals4.8%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.5 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.31× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
CIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 4.8%, 10.5 points below their season mean of 15.3% and 1.3 times their own 8.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
16/20, 236 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
14.4 expected points added · +19.5% completion over expected
Passing · CIN
26/37, 234 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
6.6 expected points added · +6.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jalen Hurts banked 10.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 35.1 | +10.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/20, 236 yd, 1 TD · 10 car, 37 yd, 3 TD |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.5 | +8.8 | 93% | 100% | 37% | 37% | 6/7, 85 yd, 1 TD |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.4 | +0.6 | 95% | 100% | 31% | 30% | 9/11, 54 yd, 1 TD |
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.4 | +3.1 | 82% | 95% | 32% | 44% | 5/6, 84 yd |
| Joe BurrowQB · Starter QB | 12.9 | −5.6 | 95% | — | 0% | — | 26/37, 234 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 15 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Featured Receiver | 12.3 | −0.8 | 53% | 60% | 22% | 19% | 7/8, 73 yd |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Committee Back | 12.1 | −3.6 | 82% | 86% | 5% | 2% | 22 car, 108 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Chase BrownRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.4 | −1.4 | 48% | 40% | 11% | 0% | 12 car, 32 yd, 1 TD · 2/4, 2 yd |
| Grant CalcaterraTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.8 | +3.9 | 93% | 95% | 16% | 16% | 3/3, 58 yd |
| Zack MossRB · Receiving Back | 7.9 | −1.7 | 52% | 60% | 11% | 2% | 5 car, 11 yd · 4/4, 28 yd |
| Erick AllTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | +1.9 | 41% | 38% | 6% | 7% | 2/2, 32 yd |
| Jermaine BurtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | −1.5 | 41% | 43% | 8% | 25% | 1/3, 41 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB | 1.9 | −1.6 | 15% | 14% | 5% | 0% | 5 car, 19 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jack StollTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −0.2 | 57% | 43% | 5% | 3% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Trenton IrwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.7 | 28% | 23% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Charlie JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Andrei IosivasWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.7 | 88% | 95% | 8% | 17% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Will ShipleyRB | -0.3 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 6-D.Smith for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 2:51 · Eagles · 2nd & 8 at CIN 45 · gained 45 · +4.71 EP · +23.5% win probability
144 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 157 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 144 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 152. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 85 yards from the PHI 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Eagles0
Bengals6Eagles0Bengals7Eagles3Bengals7Eagles3Bengals10How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
Eagles9Bengals10Eagles10Bengals10Eagles16Bengals10Eagles17Bengals10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Eagles17Bengals16Eagles17Bengals17How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Eagles23Bengals17Eagles24Bengals17Eagles27Bengals17Eagles33Bengals17Eagles34Bengals17Eagles37Bengals17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Bengals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 16/20 | 236 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +14.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 22 | 108 | 4.9 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Jalen Hurts | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 3 | +7.0 |
| Kenneth Gainwell |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 6 | 7 | 85 | 1 | 37% | +7.3 |
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 6 | 84 | 0 | 32% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Baun | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Blankenship | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nakobe Dean |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 26/37 | 234 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +6.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_08_PHI_CIN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bengals closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 54 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
| 5 |
| 19 |
| 3.8 |
| 0 |
| −0.2 |
| Will Shipley | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 | −2.1 |
| +5.4 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 3 | 3 | 58 | 0 | 16% | +4.1 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5% | +0.1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5% | −0.0 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.8 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Darius Slay | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cooper DeJean | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quinyon Mitchell | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Graham | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Avonte Maddox | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oren Burks | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nolan Smith | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Chase Brown | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 1 | −2.0 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 | +2.4 |
| Zack Moss | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gesicki | 7 | 8 | 73 | 0 | 22% | +4.4 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 9 | 11 | 54 | 1 | 31% | −0.9 |
| Jermaine Burton | 1 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 8% | +1.6 |
| Erick All | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 6% | +1.5 |
| Zack Moss | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 11% | +2.9 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Chase Brown | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11% | −2.5 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −2.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germaine Pratt | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Taylor-Britt | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Logan Wilson | 1 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Geno Stone | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| B.J. Hill | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Hubbard | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Murphy | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trey Hendrickson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kris Jenkins | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vonn Bell | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
