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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:08 AM ET · 16 to play
Philadelphia Eagles 37 at Cincinnati Bengals 17. Final.
Bengals -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2024 Week 8
Philadelphia Eagles 37, Bengals 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 2:51, 2nd and 8, on DeVonta Smith — 17.7 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 2:51 · 2nd and 8
DeVonta Smith
Eagles
(2:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 6-D.Smith for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 47.5 ✓
Bengals closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Philadelphia Eagles 37–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 2:51, Eagles +17.7% win probability on one snap.
17.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.J. BrownEaglesQ2 1:44(1:44) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 11-A.Brown to CIN 16 for 17 yards (57-G.Pratt).
9.1pts
Jalen HurtsEaglesQ2 0:25(:25) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to CIN 1 for no gain (92-B.Hill; 74-L.Guy). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
9.2pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Bengals at 3 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.71 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at +0.12 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.13 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.28 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 10 of 13 on third down, against Eagles at 6 of 12 on third down.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Eagles146 of 157 plays carry both curves
(2:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 6-D.Smith for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −17.7 for BengalsExpected points −4.71 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 3 points higher than the market did.play 114
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 2:51CIN +18% win prob(2:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 6-D.Smith for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:25CIN +9% win prob(:25) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to CIN 1 for no gain (92-B.Hill; 74-L.Guy). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:44CIN +9% win prob(1:44) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 11-A.Brown to CIN 16 for 17 yards (57-G.Pratt).
2nd · 12:59CIN +9% win prob(12:59) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki to PHI 30 for 24 yards (53-Z.Baun).
3rd · 0:45PHI +9% win prob(:45) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase to CIN 37 for -2 yards (33-C.DeJean).
4th · 12:21PHI +9% win prob(12:21) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 8-C.Gardner-Johnson (34-I.Rodgers) at PHI 15. 8-C.Gardner-Johnson ran ob at PHI 15 for no gain.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
DeVonta Smith's 45-yard touchdown catch with 2:51 left in the 3rd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:03Ja'Marr Chase·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+70–7
2nd14:14Jake Elliott·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap R.Lovato+33–7
2nd9:36Evan McPherson·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder R.Rehkow · snap C.Adomitis+33–10
4th2:00Jake Elliott·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap R.Lovato+337–17
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryBengals
Eagles8–1Bengals
397Total yards281
6.7Yards per play4.9
49%Success rate40%
50%Third-down rate77%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays3
23First downs18
0Sacks taken1
0Turnovers2
The read
Eagles ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.71 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.34Eagles: +0.34 expected points added per play
−0.00Bengals: −0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.71Eagles: +0.71 expected points added per play
+0.12Bengals: +0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Eagles: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.28Bengals: −0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 59 snaps at a 36% dropback rate against Bengals’s 57 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 6, Bengals 3.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs -0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PHI's early-down pass rate, 30.4%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 8 — 8.0 points clear of the next team along.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points.
PHI's sack or hit rate turned over: 28.2% in week 7 against 7.5% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points.
CIN's early-down pass rate turned over: 48.6% in week 7 against 65.1% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
CIN's pass rate over expected turned over: −4.8 pts in week 7 against +8.6 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 26 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Bengals4.8%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.5 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.31× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
NoteCIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 4.8%, 10.5 points below their season mean of 15.3% and 1.3 times their own 8.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
74Fred JohnsonT · Every snap100%61 snaps
51Cam JurgensG · Every snap100%61 snaps
1Jalen HurtsQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
56Tyler SteenG · Full-time97%59 snaps
69Landon DickersonG · Full-time95%58 snaps
81Grant CalcaterraTE · Full-time93%57 snaps
6DeVonta SmithWR · Full-time93%57 snaps
65Lane JohnsonT · Full-time90%55 snaps
26Saquon BarkleyRB · Full-time82%50 snaps
11A.J. BrownWR · Full-time82%50 snaps
87Jack StollTE · Heavy rotation57%35 snaps
83Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational43%26 snaps
14Kenneth GainwellRB · Situational15%9 snaps
82Ainias SmithWR · Situational13%8 snaps
75Jack DriscollT · Situational11%7 snaps
89Johnny WilsonWR · Situational10%6 snaps
57Ben VanSumerenILB · Situational7%4 snaps
72Darian KinnardT · Situational5%3 snaps
28Will ShipleyRB · Situational3%2 snaps
61Nick GatesC · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 5
Eli RicksCBTrevor KeeganGTanner McKeeQBMekhi BectonTDallas GoedertTE
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass+23% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 6-D.Smith for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 2:51 · Eagles · 2nd & 8 at CIN 45 · gained 45 · +4.71 EP · +23.5% win probability
144 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 157 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 144 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 152. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 85 yards from the PHI 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
157 of 157 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
157
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
47%
Yards
677
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.0266%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.1243%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR26+0.6531%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.1171%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.080%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter30 plays
Eagles0Bengals6
Eagles0Bengals7
Touchdown19 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Eagles 2
The period ended10 plays, from the Eagles 27 to the Bengals 16
2nd quarter55 plays
Eagles3Bengals7
Field goal3 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Bengals 21
Eagles3Bengals10
Field goal12 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Eagles 9
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Eagles 48
No good6 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Eagles 36
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Eagles9Bengals10
Eagles10Bengals10
Touchdown20 plays, from the Eagles 44 to the Bengals 1
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Eagles16Bengals10
Eagles17Bengals10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Bengals 7
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Eagles17Bengals16
Eagles17Bengals17
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Eagles 4
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Eagles23Bengals17
Eagles24Bengals17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Bengals 45
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 39
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter34 plays
Eagles27Bengals17
Field goal4 plays, from the Bengals 37 to the Bengals 31
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 46
Eagles33Bengals17
Eagles34Bengals17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Eagles 15 to the Bengals 1
Fumble lost2 plays
Eagles37Bengals17
Field goal6 plays, from the Bengals 33 to the Bengals 17
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 16 to the Bengals 25
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
