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2024 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 27, 2024 · Paycor Stadium

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

37

Cincinnati Bengals

17

CIN -2.5 upsetO 47.5 ✓

Philadelphia Eagles 37–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 2:51, CIN +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CIN ↑PHI ↓
Q3 · 2:51PHI 23 — CIN 17PHI ball · 2nd & 8PHI 54%

(2:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 6-D.Smith for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 2:51CIN +18% win prob(2:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 6-D.Smith for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 0:25CIN +9% win prob(:25) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to CIN 1 for no gain (92-B.Hill; 74-L.Guy). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 1:44CIN +9% win prob(1:44) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 11-A.Brown to CIN 16 for 17 yards (57-G.Pratt).
  4. Q2 · 12:59CIN +9% win prob(12:59) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki to PHI 30 for 24 yards (53-Z.Baun).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 5:03CIN Touchdown

    (5:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PHI 0 — CIN 7
  2. Q2 · 14:14PHI Field goal

    (14:14) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

    Score after this play: PHI 3 — CIN 7
  3. Q2 · 9:36CIN Field goal

    (9:36) 2-E.McPherson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    Score after this play: PHI 3 — CIN 10
  4. Q2 · 0:25PHI Touchdown

    (:25) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to CIN 1 for no gain (92-B.Hill; 74-L.Guy). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PHI 10 — CIN 10
  5. Q3 · 10:40PHI Touchdown

    (10:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PHI 17 — CIN 10
  6. Q3 · 4:19CIN Touchdown

    (4:19) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PHI 17 — CIN 17
  7. Q3 · 2:51PHI Touchdown

    (2:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 6-D.Smith for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PHI 24 — CIN 17
  8. Q4 · 13:39PHI Field goal

    (13:39) 4-J.Elliott 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

    Score after this play: PHI 27 — CIN 17
  9. Q4 · 4:41PHI Touchdown

    (4:41) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PHI 34 — CIN 17
  10. Q4 · 2:00PHI Field goal

    (2:00) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

    Score after this play: PHI 37 — CIN 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricEaglesBengals
Offensive plays5957
Total yards397 (edge)281
Yards per play6.7 (edge)4.9
Expected points added / play0.34 (edge)-0.00
Success rate49% (edge)40%
Dropback rate36%70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.71 (edge)0.12
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.13 (edge)-0.28
Third downs6/1210/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps23 (edge)18
Sacks taken0 (edge)1
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs -0.00.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

16/20, 236 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

14.4 expected points added · +19.5% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

26/37, 234 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

6.6 expected points added · +6.1% completion over expected

Rushing · PHI

Saquon BarkleyRB

22 att, 108 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

10 att, 37 yds, 3 TD

7.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

DeVonta SmithWR

6/7 for 85 yds, 1 TD

37% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

A.J. BrownWR

5/6 for 84 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CINCIN 30197010:04Touchdown +7
2PHIPHI 2711625:46Field goal +3
3CINCIN 3012614:38Field goal +3
4PHIPHI 309182:58Punt
5CINCIN 206441:26Missed field goal
6PHIPHI 4413734:46Touchdown +7
7CINCIN 28300:22End of half
8PHIPHI 3010704:25Touchdown +7
9CINCIN 3015706:19Touchdown +7
10PHIPHI 305701:33Touchdown +7
11CINCIN 30572:02Turnover on downs
12PHICIN 37462:07Field goal +3
13CINCIN 304161:18Interception
14PHIPHI 1513857:37Touchdown +7
15CINCIN 30230:08Fumble
16PHICIN 336132:36Field goal +3
17CINCIN 164101:55End of game

10 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 85 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jalen Hurts16/2023610014.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Saquon Barkley221084.900.8
Jalen Hurts10373.737.0
Kenneth Gainwell5193.80-0.2
Will Shipley2-3-1.50-2.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DeVonta Smith6785137%7.3
A.J. Brown5684032%5.4
Grant Calcaterra3358016%4.1
Jack Stoll11605%0.1
Saquon Barkley11305%-0.0
Kenneth Gainwell01005%-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Zack Baun740.000
Reed Blankenship530.001
Nakobe Dean520.000
Darius Slay300.001
Cooper DeJean300.001
Quinyon Mitchell200.000
Brandon Graham200.000
Avonte Maddox110.000
Oren Burks200.000
Nolan Smith020.501

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Burrow26/372341116.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chase Brown12322.71-2.0
Joe Burrow3155.002.4
Zack Moss5112.20-2.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mike Gesicki7873022%4.4
Ja'Marr Chase91154131%-0.9
Jermaine Burton134108%1.6
Erick All223206%1.5
Zack Moss4428011%2.9
Trenton Irwin11403%0.1
Chase Brown242011%-2.5
Andrei Iosivas03008%-2.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Germaine Pratt360.000
Cam Taylor-Britt630.001
Logan Wilson170.001
Geno Stone230.000
B.J. Hill320.000
Sam Hubbard500.000
Myles Murphy220.000
Trey Hendrickson220.000
Kris Jenkins120.000
Vonn Bell210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CIN -2.5
Closing total
47.5
PHI moneyline
+124
CIN moneyline
-148

Bengals closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 54 — over by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
59°F, wind 6 mph
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
PHI 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches
Nick Sirianni vs Zac Taylor