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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Atlanta Falcons 27, Cowboys 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 8:34, 4th and 3, on Darnell Mooney — 12.3 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 8:34 · 4th and 3
Darnell Mooney
Falcons
(8:34) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-D.Mooney for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Falcons closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.
Atlanta Falcons 27–21. Biggest swing: Q2 8:34, Falcons +12.3% win probability on one snap.
12.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kirk CousinsCowboysQ2 14:25(14:25) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins sacked at DAL 40 for -8 yards (55-C.Lawson). FUMBLES (55-C.Lawson) [55-C.Lawson], touched at DAL 38, RECOVERED by DAL-6-Do.Wilson at DAL 33.
8.4pts
Ray-Ray McCloudFalconsQ3 10:29(10:29) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 34-R.McCloud for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.7pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.28 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at -0.06 expected points per dropback.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Falcons at 1 giveaway.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — +0.13 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.06 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Falcons at 5 chunk plays.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Cowboys168 of 179 plays carry both curves
(8:34) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-D.Mooney for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +12.3 for FalconsExpected points +5.42 for FalconsThe model had Cowboys 3 points higher than the market did.play 50
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 8:34ATL +12% win prob(8:34) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-D.Mooney for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 14:25DAL +8% win prob(14:25) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins sacked at DAL 40 for -8 yards (55-C.Lawson). FUMBLES (55-C.Lawson) [55-C.Lawson], touched at DAL 38, RECOVERED by DAL-6-Do.Wilson at DAL 33.
3rd · 10:29ATL +8% win prob(10:29) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 34-R.McCloud for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:08ATL +7% win prob(1:08) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-D.Mooney to DAL 33 for 10 yards (21-C.Carson).
3rd · 13:15DAL +6% win prob(13:15) (Punt formation) 5-B.Anger pass incomplete short right to 29-C.Goodwin.
1st · 6:09ATL +6% win prob(6:09) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 7-B.Robinson to DAL 9 for 7 yards (2-J.Lewis).
2nd · 3:55
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Drake London's 9-yard touchdown catch with 5:27 left in the 1st put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:36Brandon Aubrey·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+33–0
3rd0:05Brandon Aubrey·57-yd field goal57-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+313–21
4th11:15Tyler Allgeier·6-yd TD run6-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+613–27
4th1:32Jalen Tolbert·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Cooper Rushfrom Cooper Rush · two-point good+821–27
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryFalcons
Cowboys4–5Falcons
380Total yards321
5.1Yards per play5.9
43%Success rate48%
23%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays5
23First downs19
3Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Falcons ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cowboys, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Cowboys: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.11Falcons: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.06Cowboys: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.28Falcons: +0.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Cowboys: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.06Falcons: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 74 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Falcons’s 54 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 3, Falcons 4.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's early-down pass rate, 33.3%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 9 — 0.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 41.5% in week 6.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
ATL's sack or hit rate turned over: 0.0% in week 8 against 14.5% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 12 pts
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Falcons14.5%
right on their number · +3.1 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
NoteDAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 72.7%, 15.1 points above their season mean of 57.7% and 1.4 times their own 10.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass+13% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(8:34) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-D.Mooney for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 8:34 · Falcons · 4th & 3 at DAL 36 · gained 36 · +5.42 EP · +13.2% win probability
166 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 86 yards from the DAL 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
42%
Yards
690
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR71+0.0472%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.1751%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Falcons0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Falcons 39
Cowboys3Falcons0
Field goal7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Falcons 16
Cowboys3Falcons6
Cowboys3Falcons7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 22 to the Cowboys 9
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 16 to the Cowboys 20
Drive ended6 plays, from the Cowboys 49 to the Cowboys 33
2nd quarter1 plays
1st quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
2nd quarter47 plays
Fumble lost1 play
The period ended7 plays, from the Cowboys 33 to the Falcons 44
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.6 seconds
Cowboys3Falcons13
Cowboys3Falcons14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Falcons 47 to the Cowboys 35
Cowboys9Falcons14
Cowboys10Falcons14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Falcons 1
The period ended9 plays, from the Falcons 23 to the Falcons 39
The period ended8 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Cowboys 43
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 38
Cowboys10Falcons20
Cowboys10Falcons21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cowboys 38 to the Cowboys 9
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Falcons 49
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 1 to the Falcons 29
Cowboys13Falcons21
Field goal10 plays, from the Cowboys 39 to the Falcons 39
4th quarter58 plays
Cowboys13Falcons27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 34 to the Cowboys 6
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 46
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 14 to the Falcons 17
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the Falcons 30
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 31 to the Falcons 37
Cowboys19Falcons27
Cowboys21Falcons27
Touchdown15 plays, from the Cowboys 14 to the Falcons 4
The period ended6 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
