2024 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 3, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium

Denver Broncos

Baltimore RavensWinner

BAL -9 ✓O 46.5 ✓Ravens closed -9 and covered, winning by 31.

Baltimore Ravens 41–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:35, DEN +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 14:35DEN 0 — BAL 0DEN ball · 2nd & 9BAL 84%

(14:35) (No Huddle) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 84-L.Humphrey INTERCEPTED by 29-A.Washington at DEN 37. 29-A.Washington to DEN 36 for 1 yard (84-L.Humphrey).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 14:35DEN +6% win prob(14:35) (No Huddle) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 84-L.Humphrey INTERCEPTED by 29-A.Washington at DEN 37. 29-A.Washington to DEN 36 for 1 yard (84-L.Humphrey).
Q1 · 6:21DEN +6% win prob(6:21) 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 33-J.Williams right end to BAL 43 for 1 yard (21-B.Stephens; 0-R.Smith). Baltimore challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 33-J.Williams right end to BAL 44 for no gain (21-B.Stephens; 0-R.Smith).
Q1 · 8:34BAL +5% win prob(8:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton to DEN 47 for 26 yards (29-A.Washington).
Q2 · 0:27BAL +5% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 4-Z.Flowers for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 2:23BAL Touchdown
(2:23) 22-D.Henry right guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 0 — BAL 7
Q2 · 12:07BAL Field goal
(12:07) 9-J.Tucker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: DEN 0 — BAL 10
Q2 · 7:21DEN Touchdown
(7:21) (Shotgun) 14-C.Sutton pass short right to 10-B.Nix for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 7 — BAL 10
Q2 · 3:54BAL Touchdown
(3:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 7 — BAL 17
Q2 · 0:58DEN Field goal
(:58) 3-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: DEN 10 — BAL 17
Q2 · 0:27BAL Touchdown
(:27) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 4-Z.Flowers for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 10 — BAL 24
Q3 · 9:41BAL Touchdown
(9:41) 22-D.Henry left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 10 — BAL 31
Q3 · 1:25BAL Touchdown
(1:25) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 42-P.Ricard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 10 — BAL 38
Q4 · 12:53BAL Field goal
(12:53) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: DEN 10 — BAL 41

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Ravens
Offensive plays	67	53
Total yards	320	397 (edge)
Yards per play	4.8	7.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.16	0.42 (edge)
Success rate	31%	53% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	42%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	0.90 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.32	0.07 (edge)
Third downs	6/14	3/7
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.42 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

16/19, 280 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

19.3 expected points added · +16.5% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

19/33, 223 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-11.4 expected points added · -4.3% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

23 att, 106 yds, 2 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Javonte WilliamsRB

12 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-3.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Zay FlowersWR

5/6 for 127 yds, 2 TD

32% of team targets · 13.5 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

7/10 for 122 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 30	3	1	0:30	Interception
2	BAL	DEN 36	4	-6	2:18	Punt
3	DEN	DEN 2	11	64	5:55	Turnover on downs
4	BAL	BAL 43	8	67	3:59	Touchdown +7
5	DEN	DEN 23	8	44	2:23	Turnover on downs
6	BAL	BAL 33	5	32	2:51	Field goal +3
7	DEN	DEN 30	13	60	4:49	Touchdown +7
8	BAL	BAL 37	9	63	3:28	Touchdown +7
9	DEN	DEN 30	12	61	2:53	Field goal +3
10	BAL	BAL 30	4	65	0:38	Touchdown +7
11	DEN	DEN 32	2	0	0:16	End of half
12	BAL	BAL 30	13	64	5:24	Touchdown +7
13	DEN	DEN 30	5	-1	2:04	Punt
14	BAL	BAL 21	11	89	6:11	Touchdown +7
15	DEN	DEN 15	5	-1	1:17	Punt
16	BAL	DEN 39	5	15	2:15	Field goal +3
17	DEN	DEN 35	12	28	4:40	Turnover on downs
18	BAL	BAL 15	4	5	2:52	Punt
19	DEN	DEN 40	9	64	3:22	Turnover on downs
20	BAL	BAL 1	3	3	1:55	End of game

9 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 89 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bo Nix	19/33	223	0	1	4	-11.4
Courtland Sutton	1/1	2	1	0	0	3.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Javonte Williams	12	42	3.5	-3.9
Bo Nix	6	36	6.0	3.0
Audric Estime	5	35	7.0	1.0
Jaleel McLaughlin	5	10	2.0	-1.9
Michael Burton	2	-1	-0.5	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Courtland Sutton	7	10	122	0	30%	3.6
Javonte Williams	2	3	42	0	9%	3.8
Troy Franklin	1	4	19	0	12%	-2.7
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	2	5	11	0	15%	-6.5
Devaughn Vele	2	3	11	0	9%	2.1
Jaleel McLaughlin	3	3	10	0	9%	-1.3
Marvin Mims	1	2	4	0	6%	-1.1
Adam Trautman	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.1
Bo Nix	1	1	2	1	3%	3.9
Lucas Krull	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Devon Key	5	4	0.0
Cody Barton	1	6	0.0
Riley Moss	3	2	0.0
Malcolm Roach	3	1	0.0
Brandon Jones	3	1	0.0
Kwon Alexander	1	3	0.0
John Franklin-Myers	2	2	1.0
Jonathon Cooper	1	2	0.0
Nik Bonitto	2	1	0.0
Eyioma Uwazurike	1	2	0.0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	16/19	280	3	0	1	19.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	23	106	4.6	2	3.5
Justice Hill	5	15	3.0	0	-0.1
Lamar Jackson	3	4	1.3	0	-0.9
Josh Johnson	3	2	0.7	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zay Flowers	5	6	127	2	32%	13.5
Justice Hill	3	3	43	0	16%	2.1
Nelson Agholor	1	1	29	0	5%	2.5
Derrick Henry	1	1	27	0	5%	2.0
Mark Andrews	2	2	26	0	11%	2.2
Rashod Bateman	3	4	25	0	21%	-0.2
Patrick Ricard	1	1	3	1	5%	1.2
Isaiah Likely	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kyle Hamilton	7	3	0.0	0	1
Trenton Simpson	6	2	1.0	0	1
Brandon Stephens	5	2	0.0	0	0
Broderick Washington	3	3	0.0	0	1
Ar'Darius Washington	3	1	0.0	1	2
Chris Wormley	1	3	0.0	0	0
Malik Harrison	2	1	1.0	0	0
Odafe Oweh	2	1	0.0	0	0
Tavius Robinson	2	1	2.0	0	1
Sanoussi Kane	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -9
Closing total: 46.5
DEN moneyline: +330
BAL moneyline: -440

Ravens closed -9 and covered, winning by 31.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 51 — over by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 57°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: DEN 7 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs John Harbaugh