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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 3, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 9
It turned at Q1 14:35, 2nd and 9, on Ar'Darius Washington — 6.4 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Baltimore Ravens 41–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:35, Ravens +6.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:35 · 2nd and 9
Ar'Darius Washington
Ravens
(14:35) (No Huddle) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 84-L.Humphrey INTERCEPTED by 29-A.Washington at DEN 37. 29-A.Washington to DEN 36 for 1 yard (84-L.Humphrey).
6.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.90 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at -0.07 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.42 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.16 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.32 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
(14:35) (No Huddle) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 84-L.Humphrey INTERCEPTED by 29-A.Washington at DEN 37. 29-A.Washington to DEN 36 for 1 yard (84-L.Humphrey).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Derrick Henry's 7-yard rushing touchdown with 2:23 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categoryRavens
Ravens ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.90 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 67 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Ravens’s 53 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 4, Ravens 7.
Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.42 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, was the highest of the 22 team-games charted in week 9 — 25.0 points clear of the next team along.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 33.3 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
DEN's sack or hit rate, 4.5%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 9 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
22 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points. · −2.0σ from their own normal
DEN's blitz rate sent, 18.2%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 7 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
22 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.4 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
BAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 62.5% in week 8 against 34.8% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.2 points. · −0.9σ from their own normal
BAL's pass rate over expected turned over: +2.3 pts in week 8 against −13.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points. · −0.9σ from their own normal
BAL's blitz rate sent turned over: 38.6% in week 8 against 14.3% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points. · −0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos-2.6 ptsright on their number · −2.9 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 67 snaps
Ravens-13.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their -7.7 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 81%
Tendencies room →Broncos54.2%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 55.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 48 early downs
Ravens34.8%inside their normal wobble · −12.3 vs their 47.1%, and they swing ±13.2 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 55%
Tendencies room →Broncos28.6%right on their number · +1.6 vs their 27.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Ravens36.4%inside their normal wobble · +10.9 vs their 25.4%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -56% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Broncos100.0%off script — went for it · +71.3 vs their 28.8%, and they swing ±33.3 week to week (+2.14× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Ravens—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 40.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 73%
Tendencies room →Broncos18.2%leaned — sat back · −15.7 vs their 33.9%, and they swing ±15.4 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Ravens14.3%inside their normal wobble · −8.4 vs their 22.7%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 38%
Tendencies room →Broncos4.5%off script — stayed blocked · −14.9 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−2.04× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Ravens14.3%right on their number · −2.4 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
DEN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 71.3 points above their season mean of 28.8% and 2.1 times their own 33.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · BAL
16/19, 280 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
19.3 expected points added · +16.5% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
Bo NixQB
19/33, 223 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-11.4 expected points added · -4.3% completion over expected
Receiving · DEN
7/10 for 122 yds, 0 TD
30% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Zay Flowers banked 16.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay FlowersWR · Alpha Receiver | 29.7 | +16.2 | 53% | 73% | 32% | 41% | 5/6, 127 yd, 2 TD |
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 26.3 | +5.6 | 61% | 41% | 5% | 0% | 23 car, 106 yd, 2 TD · 1/1, 27 yd |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 23.6 | +10.0 | 89% | — | 0% | — | 16/19, 280 yd, 3 TD · 3 car, 4 yd |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.3 | +6.2 | 85% | 88% | 30% | 52% | 1/1, 2 yd, 1 TD · 7/10, 122 yd |
| Bo NixQB · Starter QB | 17.7 | −5.3 | 100% | — | 3% | 1% | 19/33, 223 yd, 1 INT · 6 car, 36 yd · 1/1, 2 yd, 1 TD |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 10.4 | −2.0 | 54% | 55% | 9% | 2% | 12 car, 42 yd · 2/3, 42 yd |
| Justice HillRB · Receiving Back | 8.8 | −0.7 | 33% | 59% | 16% | 12% | 5 car, 15 yd · 3/3, 43 yd |
| Patrick RicardRB | 7.3 | +3.4 | 63% | 36% | 5% | 1% | 1/1, 3 yd, 1 TD |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Featured Receiver | 5.5 | −0.7 | 61% | 82% | 21% | 17% | 3/4, 25 yd |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 5.0 | −1.9 | 32% | 33% | 9% | 0% | 5 car, 10 yd · 3/3, 10 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | +1.1 | 49% | 64% | 11% | 13% | 2/2, 26 yd |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | +2.1 | 33% | 41% | 5% | 16% | 1/1, 29 yd |
| Audric EstimeRB | 3.5 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Devaughn VeleWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −1.1 | 40% | 50% | 9% | 6% | 2/3, 11 yd |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −8.6 | 49% | 45% | 15% | 6% | 2/5, 11 yd |
| Troy FranklinWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −4.5 | 40% | 50% | 12% | 25% | 1/4, 19 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | +0.2 | 61% | 57% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Marvin MimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −1.8 | 35% | 36% | 6% | 8% | 1/2, 4 yd |
| Josh JohnsonQB | 0.2 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 35% | 18% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Chris CollierRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 30% | 36% | 5% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Lucas KrullTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 29% | 36% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Nate AdkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 38% | 29% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Michael BurtonRB | -0.1 | −3.9 | 14% | 7% | 0% | — | 2 car, -1 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:35) (No Huddle) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 84-L.Humphrey INTERCEPTED by 29-A.Washington at DEN 37. 29-A.Washington to DEN 36 for 1 yard (84-L.Humphrey).
Q1 14:35 · Broncos · 2nd & 9 at DEN 31 · gained nothing · -4.50 EP · −11.4% win probability
156 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 79 yards from the BAL 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, no huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, dropped.
Broncos0
Ravens6Broncos0Ravens7Broncos0Ravens10Broncos6Ravens10Broncos7Ravens10Broncos7Ravens16Broncos7Ravens17Broncos10Ravens17Broncos10Ravens23Broncos10Ravens24Broncos10Ravens30Broncos10Ravens31Broncos10Ravens37Broncos10Ravens38Broncos10Ravens41Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 19/33 | 223 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −11.4 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1/1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 | −3.9 |
| Bo Nix | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 | +3.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 7 | 10 | 122 | 0 | 30% | +3.6 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Key | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Barton | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley Moss |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 16/19 | 280 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +19.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_09_DEN_BAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -9 and covered, winning by 31.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 51 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
| Audric Estime | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Michael Burton | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | −1.4 |
| 9% |
| +3.8 |
| Troy Franklin | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 12% | −2.7 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 15% | −6.5 |
| Devaughn Vele | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 9% | +2.1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 9% | −1.3 |
| Marvin Mims | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6% | −1.1 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Bo Nix | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3% | +3.9 |
| Lucas Krull | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Malcolm Roach | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kwon Alexander | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Franklin-Myers | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nik Bonitto | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eyioma Uwazurike | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 23 | 106 | 4.6 | 2 | +3.5 |
| Justice Hill | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Josh Johnson | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 5 | 6 | 127 | 2 | 32% | +13.5 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 | 16% | +2.1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 5% | +2.5 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 5% | +2.0 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 11% | +2.2 |
| Rashod Bateman | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 21% | −0.2 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5% | +1.2 |
| Isaiah Likely | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Hamilton | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Trenton Simpson | 6 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brandon Stephens | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Broderick Washington | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ar'Darius Washington | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Chris Wormley | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Harrison | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Odafe Oweh | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavius Robinson | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sanoussi Kane | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
