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2024 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 3, 2024 · Lambeau Field

Detroit LionsWinner

24

Green Bay Packers

14

DET -2.5 ✓U 47.5 ✓15 mph wind

Detroit Lions 24–14. Biggest swing: Q2 0:42, DET +14% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3GB ↑DET ↓
Q2 · 0:42DET 16 — GB 3GB ball · 2nd & 2DET 79%

(:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right intended for 8-J.Jacobs INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Joseph [34-A.Anzalone] at GB 27. 31-K.Joseph for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 0:42DET +14% win prob(:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right intended for 8-J.Jacobs INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Joseph [34-A.Anzalone] at GB 27. 31-K.Joseph for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 15:00GB +10% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 6:18GB +8% win prob(6:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 80-B.Melton [41-J.Houston]. PENALTY on DET-32-B.Branch, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced at GB 38 - No Play. PENALTY on DET-32-B.Branch, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
  4. Q2 · 14:49GB +6% win prob(14:49) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle to DET 39 for 37 yards (31-K.Joseph).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:09GB Field goal

    (7:09) 17-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: DET 0 — GB 3
  2. Q2 · 15:00DET Touchdown

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 7 — GB 3
  3. Q2 · 1:01DET Field goal

    (1:01) 39-J.Bates 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: DET 10 — GB 3
  4. Q2 · 0:42DET Touchdown

    (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right intended for 8-J.Jacobs INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Joseph [34-A.Anzalone] at GB 27. 31-K.Joseph for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 17 — GB 3
  5. Q3 · 9:36DET Touchdown

    (9:36) (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 24 — GB 3
  6. Q3 · 0:52GB Field goal

    (:52) 17-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: DET 24 — GB 6
  7. Q4 · 3:52GB Touchdown

    (3:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 31-Em.Wilson right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: DET 24 — GB 14

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricLionsPackers
Offensive plays5263
Total yards263413 (edge)
Yards per play5.16.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.13 (edge)-0.02
Success rate44%46% (edge)
Dropback rate44%63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.26 (edge)-0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.020.09 (edge)
Third downs4/11 (edge)3/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)57 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1618 (edge)
Sacks taken10 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Packers outgained Lions 413–263 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

23/39, 273 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-3.1 expected points added · -0.2% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

18/22, 145 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

5.9 expected points added · +18.1% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Josh JacobsRB

13 att, 95 yds, 0 TD

0.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

David MontgomeryRB

17 att, 73 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Jayden ReedWR

5/6 for 113 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

7/7 for 56 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1GBGB 2515687:54Field goal +3
2DETDET 3015687:10Touchdown +7
3GBGB 246442:47Punt
4DETDET 9592:50Punt
5GBGB 189393:56Missed field goal
6DETDET 3610554:25Field goal +3
7GBGB 30380:26Defensive touchdown
8GBGB 304590:32End of half
9DETDET 2911715:28Touchdown +7
10GBGB 30571:28Punt
11DETDET 6492:07Punt
12GBGB 2510615:09Field goal +3
13DETDET 39501:41Punt
14GBGB 1711804:04Turnover on downs
15DETDET 97123:41Punt
16GBGB 4510472:33Touchdown +8
17DETDET 479393:49End of game

6 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 80 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff18/221451015.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
David Montgomery17734.30-1.6
Jahmyr Gibbs11655.913.8
Jared Goff3-2-0.70-3.7
Kalif Raymond1-12-12.00-1.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown7756135%6.6
Sam LaPorta2328015%1.0
David Montgomery3323015%1.4
Tim Patrick2212010%0.7
Kalif Raymond111205%0.1
Jahmyr Gibbs1211010%-0.4
Allen Robinson11205%0.3
Brock Wright11105%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jack Campbell570.000
Brandon Joseph600.000
Alex Anzalone330.000
Carlton Davis420.002
Terrion Arnold320.000
Levi Onwuzurike210.000
Kerby Joseph300.011
Trevor Nowaske120.000
Jalen Reeves-Maybin110.000
Alim McNeill110.000

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love23/39273010-3.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs13957.300.0
Emanuel Wilson4287.012.7
Christopher Brooks2136.500.4
Tucker Kraft122.002.1
Jordan Love300.00-3.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jayden Reed56113016%6.5
Christian Watson3737019%0.5
Tucker Kraft4634016%0.5
Christopher Brooks3428011%-1.5
Romeo Doubs4528014%0.7
Bo Melton121905%3.2
Josh Jacobs231308%-8.0
Emanuel Wilson11103%-0.5
Dontayvion Wicks03008%-3.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Quay Walker550.000
Keisean Nixon420.000
Edgerrin Cooper230.000
Javon Bullard320.000
Kingsley Enagbare220.000
Eric Stokes300.000
Carrington Valentine120.000
Rashan Gary120.500
Eric Wilson120.000
Tedarrell Slaton120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DET -2.5
Closing total
47.5
DET moneyline
-155
GB moneyline
+130

Lions closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 38 — under by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
50°F, wind 15 mph
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
DET 7 days · GB 7 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Matt LaFleur

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.