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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 9 · Thu, Oct 31, 2024 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 9
It turned at Q4 13:01, 3rd and 19, on Garrett Wilson — 19.6 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New York Jets 21–13. Biggest swing: Q4 13:01, Jets +19.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 13:01 · 3rd and 19
Garrett Wilson
Jets
(13:01) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 5-G.Wilson. New York Jets challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 5-G.Wilson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Texans owned this one and still lost it — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.30 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Jets won this one — +0.25 expected points per dropback, against Texans at -0.16 expected points per dropback.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 4 trips, against Jets at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Jets won this one — 39% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
(13:01) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 5-G.Wilson. New York Jets challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 5-G.Wilson for 26 yards, TOUC
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Garrett Wilson's 26-yard touchdown catch with 13:01 left in the 4th put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Garrett Wilson26-yd TD catch26-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron RodgersLead never changed again+710–146 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Texanscategory by categoryJets
Jets ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 74 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Jets’s 54 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Texans 4, Jets 4.
Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NYJ's sack or hit rate turned over: 8.1% in week 8 against 26.1% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
HOU's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 8 against 50.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.4 points. · +0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Texans-5.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −6.9 vs their 1.2 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 74 snaps
Jets3.8 ptsright on their number · +1.7 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 81%
Tendencies room →Texans52.7%right on their number · −3.3 vs their 56.1%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 55 early downs
Jets56.1%inside their normal wobble · −3.8 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 44%
Tendencies room →Texans17.4%inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Jets26.5%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 24.4%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26% to 123%
Fourth Down room →Texans50.0%inside their normal wobble · +16.7 vs their 33.3%, and they swing ±22.4 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Jets—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 55.9%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 52%
Tendencies room →Texans38.2%leaned — sent pressure · +13.3 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+1.30× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Jets19.6%inside their normal wobble · −8.8 vs their 28.4%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 36%
Tendencies room →Texans11.8%inside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Jets26.1%leaned — got home · +12.5 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.43× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NYJ's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.1%, 12.5 points above their season mean of 13.6% and 1.4 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYJ
22/32, 211 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
8.6 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected
Passing · HOU
11/30, 191 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-13.4 expected points added · -15.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Garrett Wilson banked 14.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 30.0 | +14.7 | 98% | 100% | 31% | 32% | 9/10, 90 yd, 2 TD |
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.1 | +5.9 | 78% | 82% | 34% | 58% | 7/11, 91 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 20.3 | +11.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/32, 211 yd, 3 TD · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Tank DellWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.6 | +4.3 | 73% | 85% | 31% | 30% | 6/9, 126 yd |
| Joe MixonRB · Bell Cow Back | 16.6 | +1.5 | 56% | 37% | 0% | — | 0/1, 0 yd · 24 car, 106 yd, 1 TD |
| C.J. StroudQB · Starter QB | 11.5 | −11.4 | 100% | — | 3% | 2% | 11/30, 191 yd · 8 car, 59 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Breece HallRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.5 | −2.9 | 76% | 74% | 13% | 0% | 15 car, 74 yd · 2/4, 11 yd |
| Robert WoodsWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.4 | +2.0 | 49% | 50% | 10% | 10% | 2/3, 44 yd |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Featured Receiver | 5.1 | −4.0 | 71% | 85% | 21% | 21% | 3/6, 21 yd |
| J.J. TaylorRB | 2.3 | +0.9 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kenny YeboahTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.7 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Mike WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −1.4 | 71% | 85% | 6% | 15% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | 36% | 26% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Braelon AllenRB | 0.9 | −2.0 | 29% | 32% | 3% | 1% | 4 car, 9 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.7 | −2.1 | 78% | 82% | 6% | 0% | 1/2, -3 yd |
| Cade StoverTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.0 | 44% | 33% | 7% | 4% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Xavier HutchinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −6.5 | 75% | 70% | 10% | 21% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| John MetchieWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.5 | 63% | 67% | 7% | 7% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Steven SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Xavier GipsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 17% | 15% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Irvin CharlesWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB · Receiving Back | -0.1 | −7.7 | 37% | 57% | 10% | 6% | 1 car, -1 yd · 0/3, 0 yd |
| Malachi CorleyWR · Rotational Receiver | -0.2 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:01) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 5-G.Wilson. New York Jets challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 5-G.Wilson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 13:01 · Jets · 3rd & 19 at HOU 26 · gained 26 · +4.28 EP · +19.3% win probability
166 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 177 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 98 yards from the HOU 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
How the play was built
A trick play, nobody in motion.
Texans6
Jets0Texans7Jets0How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
Texans7Jets6Texans7Jets7Texans10Jets7How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Texans10Jets13Texans10Jets14How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Texans10Jets20Texans10Jets21Texans13Jets21Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Texans at Jets, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 11/30 | 191 | 0 | 0 | 8 | −13.4 |
| Joe Mixon | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 24 | 106 | 4.4 | 1 | +0.8 |
| C.J. Stroud | 8 | 59 | 7.4 | 0 | +6.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tank Dell | 6 | 9 | 126 | 0 | 31% | +8.9 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 3 | 44 | 0 | 10% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Pitre | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Neville Hewitt | 1 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Murray |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/32 | 211 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +8.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_09_HOU_NYJ
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Jets closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 34 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
| J.J. Taylor | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| +3.5 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 21% | −2.5 |
| C.J. Stroud | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| John Metchie | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −2.4 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −1.0 |
| Cade Stover | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −1.0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −1.3 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kamari Lassiter | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Henry To'oTo'o | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Stingley | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Calen Bullock | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Folorunso Fatukasi | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Settle | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denico Autry | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 15 | 74 | 4.9 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Malachi Corley | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 | −5.3 |
| Braelon Allen | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 11 | 91 | 1 | 34% | +6.7 |
| Garrett Wilson | 9 | 10 | 90 | 2 | 31% | +9.3 |
| Kenny Yeboah | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +1.2 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 13% | −0.8 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | −0.9 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| Braelon Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 6% | −2.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Mills | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Quincy Williams | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamien Sherwood | 7 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Oliver | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Reed | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quinnen Williams | 3 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahmad Gardner | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sam Eguavoen | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandin Echols | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micheal Clemons | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
