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2024 Week 9 · Thu, Oct 31, 2024 · MetLife Stadium

Houston Texans

13

New York JetsWinner

21

NYJ -2.5 ✓U 43.5 ✓

New York Jets 21–13. Biggest swing: Q4 13:01, NYJ +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NYJ ↑HOU ↓
Q4 · 13:01HOU 10 — NYJ 13NYJ ball · 3rd & 19HOU 51%

(13:01) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 5-G.Wilson. New York Jets challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 5-G.Wilson for 26 yards, TOUC

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 13:01NYJ +20% win prob(13:01) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 5-G.Wilson. New York Jets challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 5-G.Wilson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 8:23NYJ +18% win prob(8:23) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. PENALTY on NYJ-58-E.Watts, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at NYJ 25 - No Play.
  3. Q4 · 6:57HOU +17% win prob(6:57) 15-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
  4. Q4 · 12:49NYJ +16% win prob(12:49) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 3-T.Dell to NYJ 24 for 50 yards (4-D.Reed).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 3:25HOU Touchdown

    (3:25) 28-J.Mixon left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 7 — NYJ 0
  2. Q3 · 9:09NYJ Touchdown

    (9:09) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 5-G.Wilson for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Hunter]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 7 — NYJ 7
  3. Q3 · 4:16HOU Field goal

    (4:16) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: HOU 10 — NYJ 7
  4. Q4 · 13:01NYJ Touchdown

    (13:01) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 5-G.Wilson. New York Jets challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 5-G.Wilson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 10 — NYJ 14
  5. Q4 · 3:02NYJ Touchdown

    (3:02) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 10 — NYJ 21
  6. Q4 · 0:42HOU Field goal

    (:42) 15-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: HOU 13 — NYJ 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTexansJets
Offensive plays7454
Total yards323 (edge)294
Yards per play4.45.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.080.05 (edge)
Success rate34%39% (edge)
Dropback rate62%63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.160.25 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.06 (edge)-0.30
Third downs6/175/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)7
First downs gained on snaps1616
Sacks taken82 (edge)
Turnovers11

Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Aaron RodgersQB

22/32, 211 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

8.6 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

11/30, 191 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-13.4 expected points added · -15.0% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Joe MixonRB

24 att, 106 yds, 1 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Breece HallRB

15 att, 74 yds, 0 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Tank DellWR

6/9 for 126 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 8.9 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Davante AdamsWR

7/11 for 91 yds, 1 TD

34% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1HOUHOU 168222:16Punt
2NYJNYJ 114-91:00Punt
3HOUHOU 478254:11Fumble
4NYJNYJ 185131:10Punt
5HOUHOU 135142:33Punt
6NYJNYJ 316533:56Turnover on downs
7HOUHOU 20451:39Punt
8NYJNYJ 19441:31Defensive touchdown
9HOUHOU 2151038:23Touchdown +7
10NYJNYJ 30631:32Punt
11HOUHOU 297331:27Missed field goal
12NYJNYJ 46450:18Punt
13HOUHOU 20100:04End of half
14NYJNYJ 3013705:57Touchdown +7
15HOUHOU 4410204:52Field goal +3
16NYJNYJ 3014756:17Touchdown +7
17HOUHOU 2613526:00Missed field goal
18NYJNYJ 209803:58Touchdown +7
19HOUHOU 3016492:17Field goal +3
20NYJHOU 43200:39End of game

6 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 103 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud11/30191008-13.4
Joe Mixon0/10000-0.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Joe Mixon241064.410.8
C.J. Stroud8597.406.8
J.J. Taylor3237.701.7
Dare Ogunbowale1-1-1.00-0.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tank Dell69126031%8.9
Robert Woods2344010%3.5
Dalton Schultz3621021%-2.5
C.J. Stroud01003%-0.7
John Metchie02007%-2.4
Xavier Hutchinson030010%-1.0
Cade Stover02007%-1.0
Dare Ogunbowale030010%-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jalen Pitre730.001
Neville Hewitt170.000
Eric Murray330.000
Kamari Lassiter420.000
Henry To'oTo'o310.000
Derek Stingley220.002
Calen Bullock220.000
Folorunso Fatukasi110.000
Tim Settle200.000
Denico Autry202.000

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers22/322113028.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Breece Hall15744.900.1
Malachi Corley11818.00-5.3
Braelon Allen492.30-0.8
Aaron Rodgers1-1-1.00-1.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Davante Adams71191134%6.7
Garrett Wilson91090231%9.3
Kenny Yeboah111203%1.2
Breece Hall2411013%-0.8
Mike Williams12606%-0.9
Jeremy Ruckert11403%-0.2
Braelon Allen01003%-0.5
Tyler Conklin12-306%-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jalen Mills460.002
Quincy Williams700.000
Jamien Sherwood702.000
Isaiah Oliver410.000
D.J. Reed401.001
Quinnen Williams311.500
Ahmad Gardner220.001
Sam Eguavoen210.000
Brandin Echols120.000
Micheal Clemons212.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NYJ -2.5
Closing total
43.5
HOU moneyline
+124
NYJ moneyline
-148

Jets closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 34 — under by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
71°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
HOU 4 days · NYJ 4 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs Robert Saleh