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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 3, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 9
It turned at Q2 11:06, 1st and 10, on Sam Darnold — 23.0 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 11:06 · 1st and 10
Sam Darnold
Colts
(11:06) 14-S.Darnold sacked at MIN 44 for -9 yards (90-G.Stewart). FUMBLES (90-G.Stewart) [90-G.Stewart], touched at MIN 43, RECOVERED by IND-23-K.Moore at MIN 38. 23-K.Moore for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Minnesota Vikings 21–13. Biggest swing: Q2 11:06, Colts +23.0% win probability on one snap.
23.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Vikings won this one — 13 chunk plays, against Colts at 4 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Vikings won this one — -0.03 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.38 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Vikings won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Colts at 3 of 11 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
(11:06) 14-S.Darnold sacked at MIN 44 for -9 yards (90-G.Stewart). FUMBLES (90-G.Stewart) [90-G.Stewart], touched at MIN 43, RECOVERED by IND-23-K.Moore at MIN 38. 23-K.Moore for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jalen Nailor's 7-yard touchdown catch with 2:53 left in the 3rd put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Jalen Nailor7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam DarnoldLead never changed again+77–146 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Coltscategory by categoryVikings
Vikings ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 48 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Vikings’s 70 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Colts 0, Vikings 5.
Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.33.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIN's sack or hit rate turned over: 5.9% in week 8 against 23.3% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Colts-6.2 ptsright on their number · +2.5 vs their -8.7 pts, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 48 snaps
Vikings1.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · −2.6 vs their 4.1 pts, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 70 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 84%
Tendencies room →Colts54.3%right on their number · +3.5 vs their 50.8%, and they swing ±13.0 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 35 early downs
Vikings52.6%right on their number · −1.9 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 57 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 53%
Tendencies room →Colts26.7%right on their number · −3.3 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Vikings32.5%inside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 26.9%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28% to 111%
Fourth Down room →Colts33.3%right on their number · −8.3 vs their 41.7%, and they swing ±27.3 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Vikings—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 78%
Tendencies room →Colts17.5%right on their number · −2.5 vs their 20.0%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Vikings33.3%inside their normal wobble · −11.5 vs their 44.8%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 32%
Tendencies room →Colts17.5%inside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Vikings23.3%leaned — got home · +7.0 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
MIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.3%, 7.0 points above their season mean of 16.3% and 1.2 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIN
28/34, 290 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
-6.2 expected points added · +20.6% completion over expected
Passing · IND
16/27, 179 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-8.8 expected points added · -10.5% completion over expected
Receiving · MIN
7/9 for 137 yds, 0 TD
27% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Josh Oliver banked 7.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin JeffersonWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.6 | +3.9 | 99% | 98% | 27% | 56% | 1/1, 22 yd · 7/9, 137 yd |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 19.0 | −3.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/34, 290 yd, 3 TD, 2 INT · 4 car, 14 yd |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 16.8 | +7.0 | 56% | 38% | 15% | 12% | 5/5, 58 yd, 1 TD |
| Jordan AddisonWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.1 | +5.7 | 92% | 95% | 15% | 11% | 1 car, 9 yd · 5/5, 42 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron JonesRB · Bell Cow Back | 12.2 | −10.1 | 75% | 73% | 12% | 0% | 21 car, 64 yd · 4/4, 18 yd |
| Josh DownsWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.0 | −1.2 | 50% | 67% | 33% | 33% | 6/9, 60 yd |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · Bell Cow Back | 8.9 | −4.4 | 72% | 67% | 19% | 0% | 13 car, 48 yd · 3/5, 11 yd |
| Jalen NailorWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | +5.2 | 27% | 38% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 7 yd, 1 TD |
| Cam AkersRB | 7.3 | +1.4 | 22% | 23% | 6% | 0% | 6 car, 46 yd · 2/2, 7 yd |
| Alec PierceWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +1.7 | 89% | 83% | 11% | 17% | 3/3, 41 yd |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | −2.5 | 45% | 65% | 12% | 18% | 3/4, 27 yd |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +1.2 | 44% | 37% | 4% | 9% | 1/1, 22 yd |
| Adonai MitchellWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +1.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Joe FlaccoQB · Starter QB | 3.1 | −5.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/27, 179 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, -1 yd |
| Michael PittmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −4.4 | 76% | 83% | 15% | 24% | 1/4, 14 yd |
| Trey SermonRB | 2.3 | −1.7 | 26% | 33% | 7% | 0% | 2 car, 4 yd · 1/2, 9 yd |
| Brandon PowellWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.3 | 26% | 18% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Ashton DulinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −2.9 | 19% | 20% | 7% | 13% | 2 car, 17 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.2 | 14% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Tyler GoodsonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Johnny MundtTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.3 | 26% | 18% | 3% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:06) 14-S.Darnold sacked at MIN 44 for -9 yards (90-G.Stewart). FUMBLES (90-G.Stewart) [90-G.Stewart], touched at MIN 43, RECOVERED by IND-23-K.Moore at MIN 38. 23-K.Moore for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 11:06 · Vikings · 1st & 10 at IND 47 · lost 10 · -10.07 EP · −27.1% win probability
152 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 167 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 80 yards from the MIN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Colts6
Vikings0Colts7Vikings0Colts7Vikings6Colts7Vikings7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Colts7Vikings13Colts7Vikings14How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Colts10Vikings14Colts10Vikings20Colts10Vikings21Colts13Vikings21Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Colts at Vikings, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 16/27 | 179 | 0 | 1 | 3 | −8.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Ashton Dulin | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Trey Sermon | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Downs | 6 | 9 | 60 | 0 | 33% | +0.4 |
| Alec Pierce | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 11% | +3.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.J. Speed | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Cross | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Zaire Franklin | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Julian Blackmon |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 28/34 | 290 | 3 | 2 | 4 | −6.2 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1/1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.1 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_09_IND_MIN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 47; the game landed 34 — under by 13.0.
Conditions and crew
| Joe Flacco | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | −5.9 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 4% | +0.8 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 4% | +2.0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 15% | −4.0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 19% | −2.9 |
| Trey Sermon | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7% | −1.9 |
| Ashton Dulin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −3.8 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jaylon Jones | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Samuel Womack | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeForest Buckner | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grover Stewart | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Stuard | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 21 | 64 | 3.0 | 0 | −4.9 |
| Cam Akers | 6 | 46 | 7.7 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Sam Darnold | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Jordan Addison | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 7 | 9 | 137 | 0 | 27% | +2.2 |
| Josh Oliver | 5 | 5 | 58 | 1 | 15% | +6.5 |
| Jordan Addison | 5 | 5 | 42 | 1 | 15% | +6.1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 12% | −5.0 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 12% | +0.0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +1.1 |
| Cam Akers | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 3% | +2.6 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Pace | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Phillips | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Stephon Gilmore | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Harrison Smith | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Byron Murphy | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jerry Tillery | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Metellus | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jihad Ward | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
