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2024 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 3, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

13

Minnesota VikingsWinner

21

MIN -6.5 ✓U 47 ✓Dome

Minnesota Vikings 21–13. Biggest swing: Q2 11:06, IND +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIN ↑IND ↓
Q2 · 11:06IND 6 — MIN 0MIN ball · 1st & 10MIN 74%

(11:06) 14-S.Darnold sacked at MIN 44 for -9 yards (90-G.Stewart). FUMBLES (90-G.Stewart) [90-G.Stewart], touched at MIN 43, RECOVERED by IND-23-K.Moore at MIN 38. 23-K.Moore for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 11:06IND +23% win prob(11:06) 14-S.Darnold sacked at MIN 44 for -9 yards (90-G.Stewart). FUMBLES (90-G.Stewart) [90-G.Stewart], touched at MIN 43, RECOVERED by IND-23-K.Moore at MIN 38. 23-K.Moore for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 5:50IND +14% win prob(5:50) 16-W.Reichard 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
  3. Q3 · 4:48MIN +13% win prob(4:48) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson to IND 1 for 41 yards (33-S.Womack).
  4. Q4 · 5:24IND +13% win prob(5:24) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass incomplete short right to 16-A.Dulin (2-S.Gilmore) [52-Ji.Ward].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 11:06IND Touchdown

    (11:06) 14-S.Darnold sacked at MIN 44 for -9 yards (90-G.Stewart). FUMBLES (90-G.Stewart) [90-G.Stewart], touched at MIN 43, RECOVERED by IND-23-K.Moore at MIN 38. 23-K.Moore for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 7 — MIN 0
  2. Q3 · 10:28MIN Touchdown

    (10:28) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 3-J.Addison for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 7 — MIN 7
  3. Q3 · 2:53MIN Touchdown

    (2:53) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 83-J.Nailor for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-D.Buckner]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 7 — MIN 14
  4. Q4 · 12:45IND Field goal

    (12:45) 7-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 10 — MIN 14
  5. Q4 · 2:09MIN Touchdown

    (2:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 84-J.Oliver for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 10 — MIN 21
  6. Q4 · 0:33IND Field goal

    (:33) 7-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 13 — MIN 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricColtsVikings
Offensive plays4870
Total yards228416 (edge)
Yards per play4.85.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.33-0.04 (edge)
Success rate35%50% (edge)
Dropback rate63%57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.29-0.05 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.38-0.03 (edge)
Third downs3/116/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)413 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1227 (edge)
Sacks taken3 (edge)4
Turnovers2 (edge)3

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.33.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Sam DarnoldQB

28/34, 290 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

-6.2 expected points added · +20.6% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Joe FlaccoQB

16/27, 179 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-8.8 expected points added · -10.5% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Aaron JonesRB

21 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

-4.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

13 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

7/9 for 137 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Josh DownsWR

6/9 for 60 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 0.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 306442:36Fumble
2MINMIN 2411555:44Interception
3INDIND 205172:14Punt
4MINMIN 247324:11Punt
5INDIND 20451:05Punt
6MINMIN 255283:14Defensive touchdown
7MINMIN 3011355:10Missed field goal
8INDIND 438273:51Missed field goal
9MINMIN 437441:42Missed field goal
10INDIND 21100:13End of half
11MINMIN 3011654:37Touchdown +7
12INDIND 307362:30Punt
13MINMIN 2010755:04Touchdown +7
14INDIND 308553:26Interception
15MINMIN 23100:10Interception
16INDMIN 25421:32Field goal +3
17MINMIN 308223:19Punt
18INDIND 219394:02Turnover on downs
19MINMIN 409603:15Touchdown +7
20INDIND 30731:37Field goal +3
21MININD 45200:28End of game

5 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 75 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Flacco16/27179013-8.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor13483.70-1.5
Ashton Dulin2178.501.0
Trey Sermon242.00-0.5
Joe Flacco2-1-0.50-5.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Josh Downs6960033%0.4
Alec Pierce3341011%3.7
Adonai Mitchell112204%0.8
Kylen Granson112204%2.0
Michael Pittman1414015%-4.0
Jonathan Taylor3511019%-2.9
Trey Sermon12907%-1.9
Ashton Dulin02007%-3.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
E.J. Speed730.000
Nick Cross630.011
Zaire Franklin720.011
Julian Blackmon610.000
Jaylon Jones240.000
Samuel Womack410.000
DeForest Buckner321.000
Kenny Moore500.000
Grover Stewart222.000
Grant Stuard200.000

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Darnold28/34290324-6.2
Justin Jefferson1/1220003.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones21643.00-4.9
Cam Akers6467.700.9
Sam Darnold4143.501.6
Jordan Addison199.001.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Justin Jefferson79137027%2.2
Josh Oliver5558115%6.5
Jordan Addison5542115%6.1
T.J. Hockenson3427012%-5.0
Aaron Jones4418012%0.0
Brandon Powell11903%1.1
Cam Akers22706%-0.6
Jalen Nailor11713%2.6
Trent Sherfield11703%0.0
Johnny Mundt01003%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ivan Pace330.000
Harrison Phillips320.000
Camryn Bynum230.001
Stephon Gilmore120.001
Harrison Smith120.001
Byron Murphy300.011
Jerry Tillery210.000
Josh Metellus210.000
Jihad Ward201.000
Andrew Van Ginkel110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIN -6.5
Closing total
47
IND moneyline
+240
MIN moneyline
-298

Vikings closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 47; the game landed 34 — under by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
IND 7 days · MIN 10 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Kevin O'Connell