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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Jaguars162 of 171 plays carry both curves
(1:42) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left intended for 2-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 17-N.Dean at PHI -3. Touchback.
Swing +34.0 for EaglesExpected points +4.87 for EaglesThe model had Jaguars 9 points higher than the market did.play 167
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:42JAX +34% win prob(1:42) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left intended for 2-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 17-N.Dean at PHI -3. Touchback.
4th · 2:16JAX +15% win prob(2:16) 4-J.Elliott 57 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
4th · 1:49PHI +12% win prob(1:49) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 86-A.Trammell pushed ob at PHI 13 for 22 yards (8-C.Gardner-Johnson).
4th · 2:00PHI +12% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to 17-E.Engram. PENALTY on PHI-29-A.Maddox, Defensive Pass Interference, 18 yards, enforced at JAX 47 - No Play.
1st · 11:20PHI +11% win prob(11:20) 10-B.Mann punts 42 yards to JAX 14, Center-49-R.Lovato. 86-A.Trammell to JAX 15 for 1 yard (21-S.Brown). FUMBLES (21-S.Brown), RECOVERED by PHI-22-K.Ringo at JAX 20. 22-K.Ringo to JAX 20 for no gain (56-Y.Abdullah).
3rd · 5:26JAX +7% win prob(5:26) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left end to PHI 34 for 4 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by JAX-44-T.Walker at PHI 35. 44-T.Walker for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PHI-74-F.Johnson has returned to the game.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Saquon Barkley's 20-yard touchdown catch with 10:28 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Eagles ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.18Jaguars: −0.18 expected points added per play
+0.02Eagles: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.20Jaguars: −0.20 expected points added per play
+0.27Eagles: +0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Jaguars: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.20Eagles: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 52 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Eagles’s 73 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 3, Eagles 5.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 11 pts
right on their number · −1.2 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Eagles8.1%
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was PHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7% against a season mean of 46.1% — and PHI swings 24.7 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Lawrence pass−43% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:42) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left intended for 2-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 17-N.Dean at PHI -3. Touchback.
Q4 1:42 · Jaguars · 1st & 10 at PHI 13 · gained nothing · -4.87 EP · −42.9% win probability
160 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 91 yards from the PHI 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
41%
Yards
666
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.1646%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.1673%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.3250%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.109%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8-0.3825%
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Eagles 49
Jaguars0Eagles6
Jaguars0Eagles7
Touchdown3 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to midfield
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 11 to the Eagles 13
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 41 to the Jaguars 46
The period ended7 plays, from the Eagles 7 to the Jaguars 48
2nd quarter45 plays
Jaguars0Eagles10
Field goal9 plays, from the Jaguars 42 to the Jaguars 16
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 39
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Jaguars 39 to the Jaguars 22
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 22 to the Jaguars 27
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 24 to the Eagles 28
Intercepted1 play
Jaguars0Eagles16
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 42 to the Jaguars 9
The period ended2 plays
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 17 to the Jaguars 22
Jaguars0Eagles22
Touchdown9 plays, from the Eagles 22 to the Jaguars 18
Jaguars6Eagles22
Jaguars8Eagles22
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jaguars 39 to the Eagles 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Jaguars14Eagles22
Touchdown2 plays
Jaguars16Eagles22
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Jaguars 25
The period ended3 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 28
4th quarter47 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 34 to the Eagles 49
Jaguars16Eagles28
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 9 to the Jaguars 13
Jaguars22Eagles28
Jaguars23Eagles28
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Eagles 4
The period ended11 plays, from the Eagles 32 to the Jaguars 39
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Jaguars 47 to the Eagles 13
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
