For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 3, 2024 · FirstEnergy Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 9
It turned at Q2 8:10, 3rd and 6, on Quentin Johnston — 16.1 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Los Angeles Chargers 27–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 8:10, Chargers +16.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 8:10 · 3rd and 6
Quentin Johnston
Chargers
(8:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 1-Q.Johnston for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Chargers won this one — no giveaways, against Browns at 3 giveaways.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chargers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Browns at 3 chunk plays.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chargers won this one — +0.03 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.27 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 38% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(8:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 1-Q.Johnston for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Josh Palmer's 28-yard touchdown catch with 6:54 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Josh Palmer28-yd TD catch28-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin HerbertLead never changed again+77–0Quentin Johnston66-yd TD catch66-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin Herbert · kick no good, wide left+613–36 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chargerscategory by categoryBrowns
Chargers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 54 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Browns’s 76 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 4, Browns 3.
Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CLE's play-action rate, 10.7%, is past their previous low of 16.1% in week 1 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
56 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
CLE's sack or hit rate, 32.4%, is past their previous high of 23.1% in week 3 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Chargers2.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.0 vs their -1.6 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 54 snaps
Browns2.4 ptsright on their number · +2.1 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 76 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 88%
Tendencies room →Chargers51.3%right on their number · −4.0 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 39 early downs
Browns71.4%inside their normal wobble · +7.8 vs their 63.7%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (+0.84× that swing) · 56 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 62%
Tendencies room →Chargers26.5%right on their number · −4.3 vs their 30.7%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Browns10.7%leaned — dropped back clean · −11.8 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.66× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28% to 124%
Fourth Down room →Chargers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 17.9%.
Browns75.0%inside their normal wobble · +15.9 vs their 59.1%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 71%
Tendencies room →Chargers14.3%leaned — sat back · −10.6 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Browns20.6%inside their normal wobble · −10.4 vs their 31.0%, and they swing ±15.6 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 40%
Tendencies room →Chargers14.3%right on their number · +0.2 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Browns32.4%leaned — got home · +13.8 vs their 18.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.65× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
CLE's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 10.7%, 11.8 points below their season mean of 22.5% and 1.7 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
18/27, 282 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
1.3 expected points added · +8.3% completion over expected
Passing · CLE
26/46, 235 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
-21.0 expected points added · -8.5% completion over expected
Receiving · LAC
4/5 for 118 yds, 1 TD
19% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Quentin Johnston banked 14.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. DobbinsRB · Bell Cow Back | 24.5 | +14.0 | 74% | 79% | 8% | 1% | 14 car, 85 yd, 2 TD · 2/2, 20 yd |
| Quentin JohnstonWR · Featured Receiver | 22.0 | +14.4 | 68% | 71% | 19% | 28% | 1 car, 2 yd · 4/5, 118 yd, 1 TD |
| Cedric TillmanWR · Featured Receiver | 19.5 | +1.1 | 96% | 98% | 24% | 29% | 6/11, 75 yd, 1 TD |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 19.5 | +9.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/27, 282 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 2 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Featured Receiver | 14.3 | −5.2 | 100% | 100% | 24% | 28% | 7/11, 73 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.3 | +7.7 | 61% | 65% | 15% | 30% | 2/4, 63 yd, 1 TD |
| Ladd McConkeyWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.4 | −0.9 | 84% | 94% | 27% | 32% | 5/7, 64 yd |
| Jameis WinstonQB · Starter QB | 10.1 | −11.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/46, 235 yd, 1 TD, 3 INT · 5 car, 27 yd |
| David NjokuTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.9 | −1.2 | 77% | 77% | 15% | 6% | 5/7, 29 yd |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | +0.6 | 32% | 36% | 9% | 8% | 3/4, 32 yd |
| Elijah MooreWR · Featured Receiver | 5.8 | −7.7 | 76% | 77% | 20% | 29% | 3/9, 28 yd |
| Nick ChubbRB · Bell Cow Back | 4.5 | −4.8 | 35% | 21% | 2% | 0% | 15 car, 39 yd · 1/1, -4 yd |
| Will DisslyTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −1.2 | 68% | 74% | 12% | 4% | 2/3, 9 yd |
| Jerome FordRB | 1.7 | −2.7 | 46% | 55% | 7% | 2% | 2 car, 5 yd · 1/3, 2 yd |
| Hayden HurstTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.1 | 14% | 15% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Eric TomlinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | +0.4 | 28% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Jalen ReagorWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −1.8 | 33% | 41% | 8% | 2% | 1/2, 0 yd |
| Pierre StrongRB | 0.8 | −0.2 | 15% | 18% | 0% | — | 2 car, 8 yd |
| Kimani VidalRB | 0.7 | −1.9 | 19% | 9% | 0% | — | 5 car, 7 yd |
| Jaelon DardenWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Scott MatlockRB | 0.0 | — | 30% | 24% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Hassan HaskinsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Derius DavisWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Simi FehokoWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 16% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 1-Q.Johnston for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 8:10 · Chargers · 3rd & 6 at LAC 34 · gained 66 · +6.31 EP · +18.1% win probability
169 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 180 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 175. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 76 yards from the LAC 4 for a end of half. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chargers6
Browns0Chargers7Browns0Chargers7Browns3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Chargers13Browns3Chargers19Browns3Chargers20Browns3Chargers26Browns3Chargers27Browns3Chargers27Browns9Chargers27Browns10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chargers at Browns, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 18/27 | 282 | 2 | 0 | 6 | +1.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 14 | 85 | 6.1 | 2 | +3.2 |
| Kimani Vidal | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Justin Herbert |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Johnston | 4 | 5 | 118 | 1 | 19% | +7.2 |
| Ladd McConkey | 5 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daiyan Henley | 7 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Derwin James | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Elijah Molden |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 26/46 | 235 | 1 | 3 | 6 | −21.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_09_LAC_CLE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -2 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 37 — under by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.7 |
| 0 |
| −0.2 |
| Quentin Johnston | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| 27% |
| +3.9 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 4 | 63 | 1 | 15% | +3.0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 8% | −0.3 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 12% | −2.4 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | −0.1 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −2.3 |
| Simi Fehoko | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| Tuli Tuipulotu | 5 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Niemann | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tarheeb Still | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Troy Dye | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Perryman | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Hart | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Mack | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 15 | 39 | 2.6 | 0 | −4.8 |
| Jameis Winston | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 | +5.6 |
| Pierre Strong | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Jerome Ford | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Tillman | 6 | 11 | 75 | 1 | 24% | +1.1 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 7 | 11 | 73 | 0 | 24% | −3.7 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 9% | +1.4 |
| David Njoku | 5 | 7 | 29 | 0 | 15% | −1.4 |
| Elijah Moore | 3 | 9 | 28 | 0 | 20% | −7.4 |
| Jerome Ford | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7% | −1.5 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 2% | −2.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Delpit | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Bush | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Thornhill | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Martin Emerson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Garrett | 4 | 1 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohamoud Diabate | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Shelby Harris | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Dalvin Tomlinson | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McGuire | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
