2024 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 3, 2024 · Lumen Field

Los Angeles RamsWinner

Seattle Seahawks

LA -1.5 ✓U 48.5 ✓Rams closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Los Angeles Rams 26–20. Biggest swing: Q4 11:17, LA +51% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 11:17LA 19 — SEA 13SEA ball · 1st & 6SEA 68%

(11:17) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left intended for 11-J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by 26-K.Kinchens [0-B.Young] at LA -3. 26-K.Kinchens to SEA 1 for 102 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at SEA -8. TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 11:17LA +51% win prob(11:17) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left intended for 11-J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by 26-K.Kinchens [0-B.Young] at LA -3. 26-K.Kinchens to SEA 1 for 102 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at SEA -8. TOUCHDOWN.
OT · 5:04SEA +33% win prob(5:04) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 15-D.Robinson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT · 9:14SEA +24% win prob(9:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba ran ob at LA 25 for 31 yards (26-K.Kinchens). Penalty on LA-4-A.Witherspoon, Illegal Contact, declined. Penalty on LA-91-K.Turner, Defensive Offside, declined.
OT · 7:25LA +23% win prob(7:25) 51-O.Oluwatimi reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left tackle to LA 16 for no gain (95-B.Brown; 48-O.Speights).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 3:34LA Field goal
(3:34) 16-J.Karty 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-46-T.Zentner.
Score after this play: LA 3 — SEA 0
Q2 · 0:55SEA Touchdown
(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-91-K.Turner, Defensive Offside, declined.
Score after this play: LA 3 — SEA 6
Q2 · 0:11SEA Touchdown
(:11) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [0-B.Young]. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 3 — SEA 13
Q3 · 8:31LA Touchdown
(8:31) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-D.Robinson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 10 — SEA 13
Q3 · 0:30LA Field goal
(:30) 16-J.Karty 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-46-T.Zentner.
Score after this play: LA 13 — SEA 13
Q4 · 11:17LA Touchdown
(11:17) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left intended for 11-J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by 26-K.Kinchens [0-B.Young] at LA -3. 26-K.Kinchens to SEA 1 for 102 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at SEA -8. TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 20 — SEA 13
Q4 · 0:57SEA Touchdown
(:57) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 20 — SEA 20
OT · 5:04LA Touchdown
(5:04) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 15-D.Robinson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: LA 26 — SEA 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Seahawks
Offensive plays	68	73
Total yards	366	425 (edge)
Yards per play	5.4	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.03 (edge)	-0.25
Success rate	41% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	65%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.12
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24 (edge)	-0.43
Third downs	3/13	4/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	11 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	7
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Seahawks outgained Rams 425–366 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

21/34, 363 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT

-5.5 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

25/44, 298 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

3.9 expected points added · -3.0% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth WalkerRB

25 att, 83 yds, 0 TD

-6.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

22 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

-4.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR

7/13 for 180 yds, 2 TD

38% of team targets · -2.5 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

11/14 for 104 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 3.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 30	11	30	4:28	Punt
2	LA	LA 11	4	7	0:43	Punt
3	SEA	SEA 40	3	22	1:18	Interception
4	LA	50	7	22	3:00	Punt
5	SEA	SEA 13	5	10	2:38	Punt
6	LA	LA 21	4	5	1:35	Punt
7	SEA	SEA 38	4	2	0:53	Punt
8	LA	LA 10	6	39	1:35	Punt
9	SEA	SEA 14	6	29	4:25	Punt
10	LA	LA 37	11	55	5:54	Field goal +3
11	SEA	SEA 30	11	70	2:40	Touchdown +6
12	LA	LA 25	4	19	0:24	Interception
13	SEA	SEA 40	4	70	0:22	Touchdown +7
14	LA	—	1	0	0:05	End of half
15	LA	LA 25	13	57	6:32	Touchdown +7
16	SEA	SEA 30	5	6	2:22	Punt
17	LA	LA 35	12	51	5:39	Field goal +3
18	SEA	SEA 31	9	40	4:28	Defensive touchdown
19	SEA	SEA 30	5	-4	1:10	Punt
20	LA	LA 29	4	2	1:05	Punt
21	SEA	LA 19	5	15	2:37	Interception
22	LA	LA 7	4	7	1:39	Punt
23	SEA	SEA 38	4	8	1:29	Punt
24	LA	LA 28	4	11	1:05	Punt
25	SEA	SEA 27	9	73	1:03	Touchdown +7
26	LA	LA 30	5	8	0:32	Punt
27	SEA	SEA 15	1	0	0:19	Turnover on downs
28	SEA	SEA 30	8	54	2:41	Turnover on downs
29	LA	LA 17	4	83	2:22	Touchdown +6

7 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 83 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	25/44	298	2	1	0	3.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kyren Williams	22	69	3.1	-4.1
Matthew Stafford	1	0	0.0	-1.0
Blake Corum	1	-1	-1.0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	11	14	104	0	33%	3.3
Demarcus Robinson	6	9	94	2	21%	6.2
Tyler Johnson	3	5	38	0	12%	0.1
Kyren Williams	1	3	26	0	7%	0.0
Tutu Atwell	1	3	16	0	7%	-0.2
Puka Nacua	1	4	11	0	10%	-2.8
Davis Allen	1	3	5	0	7%	-1.8
Hunter Long	1	1	4	0	2%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Christian Rozeboom	7	3	0.0	0	0
Quentin Lake	6	2	1.0	0	0
Jaylen McCollough	3	4	0.0	1	1
Byron Young	3	3	1.0	0	0
Kobie Turner	3	3	1.0	0	0
Darious Williams	4	1	0.0	0	2
Braden Fiske	2	2	2.0	0	0
Tyler Davis	0	4	0.5	0	0
Jared Verse	3	1	1.0	0	1
Bobby Brown	1	3	0.0	0	0

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Geno Smith	21/34	363	3	3	7	-5.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kenneth Walker	25	83	3.3	-6.3
Geno Smith	6	16	2.7	-5.6
Zach Charbonnet	2	8	4.0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	7	13	180	2	38%	-2.5
Tyler Lockett	3	4	63	1	12%	5.7
Cody White	2	3	44	0	9%	2.5
A.J. Barner	4	7	27	0	21%	-3.4
Zach Charbonnet	2	3	25	0	9%	1.3
Kenneth Walker	3	3	24	0	9%	1.0
Jake Bobo	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Ernest Jones	6	3	1
Tyrel Dodson	6	2	1
Devon Witherspoon	3	3	2
Julian Love	4	1	0
Leonard Williams	2	3	0
Josh Jobe	3	1	1
Coby Bryant	3	1	1
Boye Mafe	1	2	0
Roy Robertson-Harris	1	2	0
Brady Russell	1	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -1.5
Closing total: 48.5
LA moneyline: -125
SEA moneyline: +105

Rams closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 46 — under by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lumen Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 52°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: LA 10 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Mike Macdonald

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.