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Los Angeles Rams 26 at Seattle Seahawks 20. Final.
Rams -1.5 ✓U 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 9
Los Angeles Rams 26, Seahawks 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 11:17, 1st and 6, on Kamren Kinchens — 51.1 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 11:17 · 1st and 6
Kamren Kinchens
Rams
(11:17) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left intended for 11-J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by 26-K.Kinchens [0-B.Young] at LA -3. 26-K.Kinchens to SEA 1 for 102 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at SEA -8. TOUCHDOWN.
Rams closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Los Angeles Rams 26–20. Biggest swing: Q4 11:17, Rams +51.1% win probability on one snap.
51.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSeahawksOT 9:14(9:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba ran ob at LA 25 for 31 yards (26-K.Kinchens). Penalty on LA-4-A.Witherspoon, Illegal Contact, declined. Penalty on LA-91-K.Turner, Defensive Offside, declined.
23.9pts
Demarcus RobinsonRamsOT 5:04(5:04) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 15-D.Robinson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
32.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 11 chunk plays, against Rams at 5 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Rams won this one — 1 giveaway, against Seahawks at 3 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — -0.03 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at -0.25 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams won this one — -0.24 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.43 expected points per carry.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Rams195 of 206 plays carry both curves
(11:17) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left intended for 11-J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by 26-K.Kinchens [0-B.Young] at LA -3. 26-K.Kinchens to SEA 1 for 102 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at SEA -8. TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −51.1 for SeahawksExpected points −12.57 for SeahawksThe model had Seahawks 4 points higher than the market did.play 141
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 11:17LA +51% win prob(11:17) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left intended for 11-J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by 26-K.Kinchens [0-B.Young] at LA -3. 26-K.Kinchens to SEA 1 for 102 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at SEA -8. TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 5:04SEA +33% win prob(5:04) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 15-D.Robinson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 9:14SEA +24% win prob(9:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba ran ob at LA 25 for 31 yards (26-K.Kinchens). Penalty on LA-4-A.Witherspoon, Illegal Contact, declined. Penalty on LA-91-K.Turner, Defensive Offside, declined.
Overtime · 7:25LA +23% win prob(7:25) 51-O.Oluwatimi reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left tackle to LA 16 for no gain (95-B.Brown; 48-O.Speights).
4th · 6:10LA +21% win prob(6:10) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 88-A.Barner INTERCEPTED by 26-K.Kinchens at LA 7. 26-K.Kinchens to LA 7 for no gain (88-A.Barner).
2nd · 0:55SEA +16% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Demarcus Robinson's 39-yard touchdown catch with 5:04 left in overtime put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd3:34Joshua Karty·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder T.Zentner · snap A.Ward+33–0
2nd0:55Tyler Lockett·30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Geno Smithfrom Geno Smith · kick blocked by M.Hoecht+63–6
Overtime5:04Demarcus Robinson·39-yd TD catch39-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+626–20
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categorySeahawks
Rams3–5Seahawks
366Total yards425
5.4Yards per play5.8
41%Success rate40%
23%Third-down rate27%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays11
17First downs18
0Sacks taken7
1Turnovers3
The read
Seahawks ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Rams, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Rams: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.25Seahawks: −0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Rams: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.12Seahawks: −0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.24Rams: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.43Seahawks: −0.43 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 68 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 73 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Rams 3, Seahawks 6.
NoteSeahawks outgained Rams 425-366 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LA's blitz rate sent, 44.2%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 9 — 2.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 37.9% in week 5.
A 3.3-swing turn from week 8.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
LA's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 22 team-games charted in week 9 — 20.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 16.7% in week 7.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.7 points.
SEA's blitz rate sent turned over: 10.8% in week 8 against 38.6% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
off script — got home · +14.0 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+2.27× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Seahawks15.9%
right on their number · −1.6 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteLA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.6%, 14.0 points above their season mean of 11.6% and 2.3 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
G.Smith pass−52% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:17) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left intended for 11-J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by 26-K.Kinchens [0-B.Young] at LA -3. 26-K.Kinchens to SEA 1 for 102 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at SEA -8. TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 11:17 · Seahawks · 1st & goal at LA 6 · gained nothing · -12.57 EP · −52.4% win probability
193 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 206 plays across 30 drives, personnel groupings on 193 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 200. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 30 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 83 yards from the LA 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
206 of 206 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
206
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
41%
Yards
790
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR66-0.2359%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.1278%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.1728%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Seahawks2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
206 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
206 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Rams 36
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 11 to the Rams 18
Intercepted3 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the Seahawks 41
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Punt8 plays, from midfield to the Seahawks 29
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 13 to the Seahawks 33
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 21 to the Rams 26
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Seahawks 40
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 23 to the Rams 49
Punt8 plays, from the Seahawks 14 to the Seahawks 30
Rams3Seahawks0
Field goal12 plays, from the Rams 37 to the Seahawks 18
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Rams3Seahawks6
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Rams 30
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 44
Rams3Seahawks12
Rams3Seahawks13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the Rams 24
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Rams9Seahawks13
Rams10Seahawks13
Touchdown15 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Seahawks 1
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 33
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Rams13Seahawks13
Field goal16 plays, from the Rams 35 to the Seahawks 1
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter59 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
Rams19Seahawks13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 36 to the Rams 6
Rams20Seahawks13
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 36
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Rams 31
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Rams 19 to the Rams 4
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 7 to the Rams 14
Punt6 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Rams 29
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Rams20Seahawks19
Rams20Seahawks20
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Rams 14
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 49
The period ended2 plays
Overtime14 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and three tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, six linebackers and one backIn the boxTen defenders
The period ended9 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Rams 16
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Rams26Seahawks20
Touchdown4 plays, from the Rams 17 to the Seahawks 39
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -1.5
Closing total
48.5
Rams moneyline
-125
Seahawks moneyline
+105
Rams closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 46 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 51°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the south; overcast.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Rams 10 days · Seahawks 7 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Mike Macdonald
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-91-K.Turner, Defensive Offside, declined.
Overtime · 7:19SEA +16% win prob(7:19) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 18-T.Johnson to LA 41 for 24 yards (0-T.Dodson).
4th · 12:47SEA +14% win prob(12:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 82-C.White. PENALTY on LA-4-A.Witherspoon, Defensive Pass Interference, 23 yards, enforced at LA 43 - No Play.
Ramscategory by categorySeahawks
Rams3
Seahawks0
