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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Las Vegas Raiders 24 at Cincinnati Bengals 41. Final.
Bengals -8 ✓O 45 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 9
Cincinnati Bengals 41, Raiders 24 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 5:34, 1st and 10, on Jakobi Meyers — 6.1 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 5:34 · 1st and 10
Jakobi Meyers
Raiders
(5:34) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to CIN 26 for 23 yards (22-G.Stone).
Bengals closed -8 and covered, winning by 17.
Cincinnati Bengals 41–24 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 5:34, Raiders +6.1% win probability on one snap.
6.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tanner HudsonBengalsQ1 3:38(3:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 87-T.Hudson to LV 9 for 11 yards (39-N.Hobbs).
6.0pts
Andrei IosivasBengalsQ2 0:38(:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 80-A.Iosivas for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5.7pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Bengals won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bengals won this one — +0.09 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.28 expected points per snap.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.19 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bengals won this one — -0.06 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.36 expected points per carry.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Raiders175 of 187 plays carry both curves
(5:34) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to CIN 26 for 23 yards (22-G.Stone).
Swing −6.1 for BengalsExpected points −1.41 for BengalsThe model had Raiders 17 points higher than the market did.play 59
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 5:34CIN +6% win prob(5:34) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to CIN 26 for 23 yards (22-G.Stone).
1st · 3:38CIN +6% win prob(3:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 87-T.Hudson to LV 9 for 11 yards (39-N.Hobbs).
2nd · 0:38CIN +6% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 80-A.Iosivas for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:41CIN +6% win prob(:41) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short left to 89-B.Bowers to LV 42 for 7 yards (27-J.Battle).
1st · 1:46CIN +6% win prob(1:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:00CIN +5% win prob(14:00) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass deep right to 16-J.Meyers to CIN 23 for 22 yards (55-L.Wilson).
2nd · 2:54
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Andrei Iosivas's 10-yard touchdown catch with 0:38 left in the 2nd put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Bengals ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.28Raiders: −0.28 expected points added per play
+0.09Bengals: +0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.25Raiders: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.19Bengals: +0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.36Raiders: −0.36 expected points added per play
−0.06Bengals: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 59 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Bengals’s 69 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 2, Bengals 6.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CIN's sack or hit rate, 33.3%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 9 — 1.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 24.1% in week 1.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.6-swing turn from week 8.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
LV's blitz rate sent, 14.6%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 2 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 25 pts
right on their number · +2.1 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Bengals33.3%
off script — got home · +18.0 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+2.24× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteCIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 33.3%, 18.0 points above their season mean of 15.3% and 2.2 times their own 8.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
—Delmar GlazeT · Every snap100%61 snaps
58Jackson Powers-JohnsonG · Every snap100%61 snaps
61Jordan MeredithG · Every snap100%61 snaps
16Jakobi MeyersWR · Full-time97%59 snaps
11Tre TuckerWR · Full-time92%56 snaps
89Brock BowersTE · Full-time90%55 snaps
77Thayer Munford Jr.T · Heavy rotation67%41 snaps
15Gardner MinshewQB · Heavy rotation57%35 snaps
66Dylan ParhamG · Heavy rotation52%32 snaps
8Ameer AbdullahRB · Rotational49%30 snaps
65Cody WhitehairG · Rotational48%29 snaps
82Ramel KeytonWR · Rotational44%27 snaps
10Desmond RidderQB · Rotational43%26 snaps
22Alexander MattisonRB · Rotational39%24 snaps
19DJ TurnerWR · Rotational34%21 snaps
84Harrison BryantTE · Rotational28%17 snaps
74Kolton MillerT · Situational21%13 snaps
75Andrus PeatG · Situational18%11 snaps
3Zamir WhiteRB · Situational11%7 snaps
88Justin ShorterTE · Situational7%4 snaps
43Kana'i MaugaILB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Andre JamesCSam WebbCBJanarius RobinsonDEDylan LaubeRBTrey TaylorSS
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
DJ GlazeT
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
64Ted KarrasC · Every snap100%74 snaps
67Cordell VolsonG · Every snap100%74 snaps
61Cody FordG · Every snap100%74 snaps
65Alex CappaG · Every snap100%74 snaps
71Amarius MimsT · Every snap99%73 snaps
9Joe BurrowQB · Every snap99%73 snaps
80Andrei IosivasWR · Full-time91%67 snaps
1Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Full-time88%65 snaps
30Chase BrownRB · Full-time80%59 snaps
89Drew SampleTE · Heavy rotation76%56 snaps
88Mike GesickiTE · Rotational36%27 snaps
16Trenton IrwinWR · Rotational30%22 snaps
87Tanner HudsonTE · Rotational27%20 snaps
19Kendric PryorWR · Situational24%18 snaps
83Erick AllTE · Situational20%15 snaps
32Trayveon WilliamsRB · Situational9%7 snaps
62Matt LeeC · Situational8%6 snaps
36Kendall MiltonRB · Situational7%5 snaps
94Sam HubbardDE · Situational3%2 snaps
73Andrew StueberT · Situational1%1 snap
76Devin CochranT · Situational1%1 snap
6Jake BrowningQB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Jay TufeleDTZack MossRBOrlando BrownTTanner McLachlanTEJermaine BurtonWRCharlie JonesWRTee HigginsWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass+8% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(3:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 87-T.Hudson to LV 9 for 11 yards (39-N.Hobbs).
Q1 3:38 · Bengals · 4th & 3 at LV 20 · gained 11 · +2.74 EP · +8.0% win probability
173 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 182. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 75 yards from the CIN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
49%
Yards
590
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.4771%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR30+0.4773%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.1043%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.3025%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Bengals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Raiders6Bengals0
Raiders7Bengals0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Bengals 1
Raiders7Bengals6
Raiders7Bengals7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Raiders 1
The period ended5 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 35
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 42 to the Raiders 48
Raiders7Bengals10
Field goal15 plays, from the Bengals 10 to the Raiders 26
Raiders10Bengals10
Field goal8 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Bengals 26
Raiders10Bengals16
Raiders10Bengals17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Raiders 10
The period ended10 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Bengals 47
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter47 plays
Raiders10Bengals23
Raiders10Bengals24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Raiders 2
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Bengals 45
Raiders10Bengals30
Raiders10Bengals31
Touchdown7 plays, from the Raiders 21 to the Raiders 10
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 32
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 23 to the Bengals 29
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 26 to the Raiders 27
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Bengals 43
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter56 plays
Punt2 plays
Raiders16Bengals31
Touchdown2 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Bengals 35
Raiders17Bengals31
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 26 to the Bengals 33
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Raiders 33 to the Bengals 28
Raiders17Bengals37
Raiders17Bengals38
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bengals 36 to the Raiders 47
Fumble lost2 plays
Raiders17Bengals41
Field goal9 plays, from the Raiders 13 to the Raiders 1
Raiders23Bengals41
Raiders24Bengals41
Touchdown9 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Bengals 22
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
