For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Dolphins158 of 167 plays carry both curves
(:10) 2-T.Bass 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Swing +37.7 for BillsExpected points +2.08 for BillsThe model had Bills 6 points higher than the market did.play 164
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:10BUF +38% win prob(:10) 2-T.Bass 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
3rd · 2:17BUF +21% win prob(2:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 22-R.Davis for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:12BUF +14% win prob(:12) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
4th · 12:19BUF +12% win prob(12:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 13:52MIA +12% win prob(13:52) 31-R.Mostert right tackle to BUF 41 for 7 yards (7-Ta.Johnson). FUMBLES (7-Ta.Johnson), RECOVERED by BUF-5-K.Elam at BUF 36.
4th · 0:54BUF +10% win prob(:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 0-K.Coleman. PENALTY on MIA-21-J.Poyer, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 31 - No Play.
4th · 0:17
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Bass's 61-yard field goal with 0:10 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st6:34Tyler Bass·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.Ferguson+30–3
1st1:23Jason Sanders·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap M.Overton+33–3
2nd3:26Devon Achane·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+710–3
2nd0:12Tyler Bass·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.Ferguson+310–6
3rd7:24Mack Hollins·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Josh Allenfrom Josh Allen · kick no good, wide left+610–12
3rd3:02Jason Sanders·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap M.Overton+313–12
4th1:45Jaylen Waddle·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+727–27
4th0:10Tyler Bass·61-yd field goal61-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.FergusonLead never changed again+327–30
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categoryBills
Dolphins6–0Bills
374Total yards327
6.3Yards per play5.5
58%Success rate53%
50%Third-down rate50%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays5
24First downs21
1Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Dolphins ahead 6–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.67 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.31Dolphins: +0.31 expected points added per play
+0.17Bills: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.67Dolphins: +0.67 expected points added per play
+0.26Bills: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Dolphins: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.06Bills: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 59 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Bills’s 59 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 5, Bills 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BUF's blitz rate sent, 6.7%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 9 — 7.6 points clear of the next team along.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.1 points.
MIA's blitz rate sent turned over: 51.4% in week 8 against 24.4% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 24 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Bills6.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.2 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (−1.98× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteBUF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 6.7%, 8.2 points below their season mean of 14.9% and 2.0 times their own 4.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
65Robert JonesG · Every snap100%61 snaps
73Austin JacksonT · Every snap100%61 snaps
74Liam EichenbergG · Every snap100%61 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Every snap100%61 snaps
1Tua TagovailoaQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
55Aaron BrewerG · Every snap100%61 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Full-time97%59 snaps
17Jaylen WaddleWR · Full-time85%52 snaps
28De'Von AchaneRB · Heavy rotation69%42 snaps
9Jonnu SmithTE · Heavy rotation69%42 snaps
81Durham SmytheTE · Rotational43%26 snaps
83Malik WashingtonWR · Rotational34%21 snaps
30Alec IngoldFB · Rotational31%19 snaps
31Raheem MostertRB · Situational23%14 snaps
3Odell Beckham Jr.WR · Situational20%12 snaps
25Jaylen WrightRB · Situational15%9 snaps
80Tanner ConnerWR · Situational11%7 snaps
82D'Wayne EskridgeWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Andrew MeyerCStorm DuckCBKader KohouCBZach SielerDEJeff WilsonRBJevon HollandSSJulian HillTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Skylar ThompsonQB
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
64O'Cyrus TorrenceG · Every snap100%66 snaps
79Spencer BrownT · Every snap100%66 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%66 snaps
76David EdwardsG · Every snap100%66 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
66Connor McGovernC · Every snap100%66 snaps
86Dalton KincaidTE · Heavy rotation79%52 snaps
0Keon ColemanWR · Heavy rotation79%52 snaps
13Mack HollinsWR · Heavy rotation68%45 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Heavy rotation65%43 snaps
4James CookRB · Heavy rotation55%36 snaps
10Khalil ShakirWR · Heavy rotation53%35 snaps
26Ty JohnsonRB · Rotational29%19 snaps
1Curtis SamuelWR · Rotational26%17 snaps
70Alec AndersonG · Situational17%11 snaps
22Ray DavisRB · Situational14%9 snaps
85Quintin MorrisTE · Situational12%8 snaps
89Jalen VirgilWR · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Will ClappCChristian BenfordCBZion LogueDEReggie GilliamFBMike EdwardsFSNicholas MorrowILBAmari CooperWR
No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash.
More columns →
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Tyler Bass+29% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:10) 2-T.Bass 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Q4 0:10 · Bills · 4th & 10 at MIA 43 · gained nothing · +2.08 EP · +28.6% win probability
156 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 97 yards from the MIA 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.20
Success rate
56%
Yards
700
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.5763%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.2182%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20+0.0535%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.6450%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.6338%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.0543%
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.1383%
Bills0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 34
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 17 to the Dolphins 30
Dolphins0Bills3
Field goal7 plays, from the Dolphins 37 to the Dolphins 15
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Dolphins3Bills3
Field goal11 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Bills 20
The period ended4 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 38
2nd quarter45 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.0 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bills 45 to the Dolphins 11
Dolphins9Bills3
Dolphins10Bills3
Touchdown17 plays, from the Dolphins 3 to the Bills 9
Dolphins10Bills6
Field goal19 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Dolphins 11
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Bills 48
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Dolphins10Bills12
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bills 36 to the Dolphins 1
Dolphins13Bills12
Field goal11 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Bills 5
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Dolphins13Bills18
Dolphins13Bills20
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 37
The period ended6 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Bills 31
4th quarter51 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Dolphins19Bills20
Dolphins20Bills20
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bills 36 to the Bills 8
Dolphins20Bills26
Dolphins20Bills27
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Dolphins 2
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Dolphins26Bills27
Dolphins27Bills27
Touchdown15 plays, from the Dolphins 19 to the Bills 5
Dolphins27Bills30
Field goal13 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Dolphins 43
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and seven backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
