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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 3, 2024 · New Era Field
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 9
It turned at Q4 0:10, 4th and 10, on Tyler Bass — 37.7 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:10, Bills +37.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:10 · 4th and 10
Tyler Bass
Bills
(:10) 2-T.Bass 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
37.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — +0.67 expected points per dropback, against Bills at +0.26 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Bills at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bills at 53% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — +0.31 expected points per snap, against Bills at +0.17 expected points per snap.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
(:10) 2-T.Bass 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tyler Bass's 61-yard field goal with 0:10 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Mack Hollins1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Josh Allen · kick no good, wide left+610–12Tyler Bass61-yd field goal61-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.FergusonLead never changed again+327–3011 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Dolphinscategory by categoryBills
Dolphins ahead 6–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.67 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 59 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Bills’s 59 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 5, Bills 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's blitz rate sent, 6.7%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 9 — 7.6 points clear of the next team along.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.1 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
BUF's sack or hit rate, 6.7%, is past their previous low of 11.4% in week 2 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.1 points. · −2.0σ from their own normal
BUF's early-down pass rate, 66.0%, is past their previous high of 58.1% in week 4 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
MIA's blitz rate sent turned over: 51.4% in week 8 against 24.4% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points. · −0.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Dolphins-7.2 ptsright on their number · −4.9 vs their -2.3 pts, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 59 snaps
Bills5.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +7.9 vs their -2.1 pts, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.97× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 84%
Tendencies room →Dolphins48.0%inside their normal wobble · −7.5 vs their 55.5%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 50 early downs
Bills66.0%leaned — passed early · +13.9 vs their 52.1%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+1.28× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 52%
Tendencies room →Dolphins16.7%inside their normal wobble · −8.2 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Bills24.4%inside their normal wobble · +6.6 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.93× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 116%
Fourth Down room →Dolphins33.3%right on their number · −10.1 vs their 43.5%, and they swing ±28.3 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Bills—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 41.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 65%
Tendencies room →Dolphins24.4%inside their normal wobble · −9.6 vs their 34.0%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Bills6.7%leaned — sat back · −15.8 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (−1.31× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 28%
Tendencies room →Dolphins7.3%inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Bills6.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.2 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (−1.98× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
BUF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 6.7%, 8.2 points below their season mean of 14.9% and 2.0 times their own 4.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
25/39, 235 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
8.9 expected points added · -2.3% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
25/28, 231 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
17.5 expected points added · +21.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Devon Achane banked 11.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon AchaneRB · Committee Back | 32.1 | +11.9 | 69% | 87% | 30% | 0% | 12 car, 63 yd, 1 TD · 8/8, 58 yd, 1 TD |
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 22.1 | −1.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/39, 235 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 7 yd |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 17.5 | +6.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/28, 231 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 3 yd |
| Ray DavisRB | 17.0 | +11.3 | 14% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 4 car, 20 yd · 2/2, 70 yd, 1 TD |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.0 | +4.0 | 68% | 71% | 14% | 18% | 5/5, 30 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyreek HillWR · Featured Receiver | 12.0 | +3.7 | 97% | 97% | 19% | 56% | 4/5, 80 yd |
| James CookRB · Committee Back | 11.9 | −4.9 | 55% | 52% | 17% | 3% | 10 car, 44 yd · 5/6, 25 yd |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Featured Receiver | 11.0 | +1.1 | 53% | 60% | 19% | 0% | 6/7, 50 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Featured Receiver | 9.6 | −0.7 | 69% | 87% | 22% | 24% | 5/6, 46 yd |
| Raheem MostertRB · Committee Back | 8.8 | +1.7 | 23% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 10 car, 56 yd · 2/2, 32 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.6 | +3.2 | 85% | 90% | 7% | 14% | 2/2, -4 yd, 1 TD |
| Quintin MorrisTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | +4.0 | 12% | 17% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 2 yd, 1 TD |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Alpha Receiver | 7.2 | −10.9 | 79% | 76% | 28% | 55% | 4/10, 32 yd |
| Keon ColemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | −0.9 | 79% | 74% | 6% | 14% | 1/2, 21 yd |
| Odell BeckhamWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | +0.2 | 20% | 33% | 11% | 6% | 3/3, 15 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 2.3 | +0.8 | 29% | 29% | 0% | — | 3 car, 23 yd |
| Jaylen WrightRB | 1.8 | −1.2 | 15% | 7% | 0% | — | 6 car, 18 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.4 | 65% | 60% | 6% | 3% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | 43% | 23% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Malik WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.9 | +0.2 | 34% | 30% | 0% | — | 1 car, 9 yd |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 26% | 26% | 3% | 8% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| D'Wayne EskridgeWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:10) 2-T.Bass 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Q4 0:10 · Bills · 4th & 10 at MIA 43 · gained nothing · +2.08 EP · +28.6% win probability
156 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 167 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 97 yards from the MIA 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Dolphins0
Bills3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
Dolphins3Bills3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
Dolphins9Bills3Dolphins10Bills3Dolphins10Bills6How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Dolphins10Bills12Dolphins13Bills12How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Dolphins13Bills18Dolphins13Bills20How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
Dolphins19Bills20Dolphins20Bills20Dolphins20Bills26Dolphins20Bills27How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Dolphins26Bills27Dolphins27Bills27Dolphins27Bills30How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Dolphins at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 25/28 | 231 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +17.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Achane | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 1 | +3.5 |
| Raheem Mostert | 10 | 56 | 5.6 | 0 | −4.8 |
| Jaylen Wright |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 5 | 80 | 0 | 19% | +4.7 |
| Devon Achane | 8 | 8 | 58 | 1 | 30% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Walker | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordyn Brooks | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Poyer |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 25/39 | 235 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +8.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_09_MIA_BUF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -6.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 49; the game landed 57 — over by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 6 |
| 18 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| −1.4 |
| Malik Washington | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | +2.4 |
| +4.5 |
| Jonnu Smith | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 22% | +1.6 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 7% | +4.7 |
| Odell Beckham | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 11% | +0.1 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 2 | 2 | -4 | 1 | 7% | +4.4 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kendall Fuller | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Maye | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Smith | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calais Campbell | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Siran Neal | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Ogbah | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Da'Shawn Hand | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| James Cook | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Ray Davis | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Josh Allen | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Davis | 2 | 2 | 70 | 1 | 6% | +5.3 |
| Khalil Shakir | 6 | 7 | 50 | 0 | 19% | +4.1 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 4 | 10 | 32 | 0 | 28% | −1.5 |
| Mack Hollins | 5 | 5 | 30 | 1 | 14% | +4.1 |
| James Cook | 5 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 17% | −0.0 |
| Keon Coleman | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 6% | −2.3 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | +0.2 |
| Quintin Morris | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3% | +1.2 |
| Curtis Samuel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian Williams | 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Rapp | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damar Hamlin | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrel Bernard | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaiir Elam | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Epenesa | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Keon Coleman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
