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2024 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 3, 2024 · New Era Field

Miami Dolphins

27

Buffalo BillsWinner

30

BUF -6.5 no coverO 49 ✓

Buffalo Bills 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:10, BUF +38% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BUF ↑MIA ↓
Q4 · 0:10MIA 27 — BUF 30BUF ball · 4th & 10BUF 54%

(:10) 2-T.Bass 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:10BUF +38% win prob(:10) 2-T.Bass 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
  2. Q3 · 2:17BUF +21% win prob(2:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 22-R.Davis for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 0:12BUF +14% win prob(:12) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
  4. Q4 · 12:19BUF +12% win prob(12:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:34BUF Field goal

    (6:34) 2-T.Bass 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: MIA 0 — BUF 3
  2. Q1 · 1:23MIA Field goal

    (1:23) 7-J.Sanders 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: MIA 3 — BUF 3
  3. Q2 · 3:26MIA Touchdown

    (3:26) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 28-D.Achane for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 10 — BUF 3
  4. Q2 · 0:12BUF Field goal

    (:12) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: MIA 10 — BUF 6
  5. Q3 · 7:24BUF Touchdown

    (7:24) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 13-M.Hollins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: MIA 10 — BUF 12
  6. Q3 · 3:02MIA Field goal

    (3:02) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: MIA 13 — BUF 12
  7. Q3 · 2:17BUF Touchdown

    (2:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 22-R.Davis for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: MIA 13 — BUF 20
  8. Q4 · 12:19MIA Touchdown

    (12:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 20 — BUF 20
  9. Q4 · 6:24BUF Touchdown

    (6:24) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short right to 85-Q.Morris for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-D.Hand]. Caught 1 yd. into end zone. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 20 — BUF 27
  10. Q4 · 1:45MIA Touchdown

    (1:45) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 17-J.Waddle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 27 — BUF 27
  11. Q4 · 0:10BUF Field goal

    (:10) 2-T.Bass 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: MIA 27 — BUF 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricDolphinsBills
Offensive plays5959
Total yards374 (edge)327
Yards per play6.3 (edge)5.5
Expected points added / play0.31 (edge)0.17
Success rate58% (edge)53%
Dropback rate51%69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.67 (edge)0.26
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.07-0.06 (edge)
Third downs4/85/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps24 (edge)21
Sacks taken11
Turnovers11

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

25/39, 235 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

8.9 expected points added · -2.3% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

25/28, 231 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

17.5 expected points added · +21.3% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Devon AchaneRB

12 att, 63 yds, 1 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Raheem MostertRB

10 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

-4.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

4/5 for 80 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Devon AchaneRB

8/8 for 58 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BUFBUF 30531:35Punt
2MIAMIA 176122:58Punt
3BUFMIA 377153:57Field goal +3
4MIAMIA 3010395:11Field goal +3
5BUFBUF 309594:38Interception
6MIAMIA 3151028:21Touchdown +7
7BUFBUF 3013413:13Field goal +3
8MIAMIA 32200:07End of half
9MIAMIA 304291:17Fumble
10BUFBUF 3612646:23Touchdown +6
11MIAMIA 3010604:21Field goal +3
12BUFBUF 304720:52Touchdown +8
13MIAMIA 3011754:53Touchdown +7
14BUFBUF 3012665:56Touchdown +7
15MIAMIA 1913814:40Touchdown +7
16BUFBUF 301071:33Field goal +3
17MIAMIA 302-240:05End of game

11 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 102 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa25/2823120117.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Devon Achane12635.313.5
Raheem Mostert10565.60-4.8
Jaylen Wright6183.00-1.4
Malik Washington199.000.7
Tua Tagovailoa231.502.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyreek Hill4580019%4.7
Devon Achane8858130%4.5
Jonnu Smith5646022%1.6
Raheem Mostert223207%4.7
Odell Beckham3315011%0.1
Durham Smythe11404%-0.1
Jaylen Waddle22-417%4.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Anthony Walker360.000
Jordyn Brooks330.000
Jordan Poyer320.000
Kendall Fuller320.000
Marcus Maye230.000
Cam Smith400.000
Calais Campbell400.000
Siran Neal210.000
Emmanuel Ogbah110.000
Da'Shawn Hand110.001

Buffalo Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Josh Allen25/392353118.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Cook10444.40-0.4
Ty Johnson3237.701.1
Ray Davis4205.000.4
Josh Allen273.50-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ray Davis227016%5.3
Khalil Shakir6750019%4.1
Dalton Kincaid41032028%-1.5
Mack Hollins5530114%4.1
James Cook5625017%-0.0
Keon Coleman122106%-2.3
Dawson Knox12506%0.2
Quintin Morris11213%1.2
Curtis Samuel01003%-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Dorian Williams750.000
Taylor Rapp640.000
Damar Hamlin620.000
Terrel Bernard520.000
Gregory Rousseau331.000
Kaiir Elam410.000
Taron Johnson310.000
A.J. Epenesa110.000
Rasul Douglas110.001
Keon Coleman100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BUF -6.5
Closing total
49
MIA moneyline
+230
BUF moneyline
-285

Bills closed -6.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 49; the game landed 57 — over by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
54°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
MIA 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs Sean McDermott

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.