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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
New England Patriots 17 at Tennessee Titans 20. Final.
Titans -3 pushU 38.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 9
Tennessee Titans 20, Patriots 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 2:17, 1st and 10, on Amani Hooker — 43.0 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 2:17 · 1st and 10
Amani Hooker
Titans
(2:17) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle intended for 9-K.Boutte INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Hooker at TEN 11. 37-A.Hooker to TEN 13 for 2 yards.
Titans closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Tennessee Titans 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 2:17, Titans +43.0% win probability on one snap.
43.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Drake MayeTitansQ4 7:03(7:03) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at NE 25 for -7 yards (49-A.Key). FUMBLES (49-A.Key) [49-A.Key], touched at NE 28, RECOVERED by TEN-98-J.Simmons at NE 26.
23.7pts
Nick FolkPatriotsOT 2:34(2:34) 6-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
33.7pts
What separated them
Red zone
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Titans at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Titans won this one — 1 giveaway, against Patriots at 3 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Titans won this one — 7 of 16 on third down, against Patriots at 3 of 11 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Titans won this one — -0.18 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.36 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Patriots178 of 194 plays carry both curves
(2:17) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle intended for 9-K.Boutte INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Hooker at TEN 11. 37-A.Hooker to TEN 13 for 2 yards.
Swing +43.0 for TitansExpected points +2.25 for TitansModel and market agree here.play 193
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 2:17NE +43% win prob(2:17) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle intended for 9-K.Boutte INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Hooker at TEN 11. 37-A.Hooker to TEN 13 for 2 yards.
Overtime · 2:34NE +34% win prob(2:34) 6-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
4th · 7:03NE +24% win prob(7:03) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at NE 25 for -7 yards (49-A.Key). FUMBLES (49-A.Key) [49-A.Key], touched at NE 28, RECOVERED by TEN-98-J.Simmons at NE 26.
Overtime · 7:23TEN +21% win prob(7:23) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass short middle to 0-C.Ridley to NE 31 for 14 yards (0-C.Gonzalez) [91-D.Wise].
4th · 0:04TEN +19% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [37-A.Hooker].
4th · 0:00TEN +17% win prob13-J.Slye extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nick Folk's 25-yard field goal with 2:34 left in overtime put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Overtime2:34Nick Folk·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.CoxLead never changed again+317–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Patriotscategory by categoryTitans
Patriots1–7Titans
295Total yards400
4.6Yards per play5.5
44%Success rate42%
27%Third-down rate44%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays8
17First downs22
4Sacks taken1
3Turnovers1
The read
Titans ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Patriots: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.01Titans: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.02Patriots: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.20Titans: +0.20 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.36Patriots: −0.36 expected points added per play
−0.18Titans: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 64 snaps at a 80% dropback rate against Titans’s 73 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 2, Titans 5.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NE's early-down pass rate, 76.9%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 9 — 4.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 73.2% in week 7.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 8.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points.
high through week 9Against their seasonOver Expected
NE's pass rate over expected, +9.2 pts, is past their previous high of +4.4 pts in week 7 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.4-swing turn from week 8.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
TEN's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 6 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 9.
A 3.4-swing turn from week 8.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · +0.9 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Titans15.7%
inside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
NoteNE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 9.2 pts, 12.3 points above their season mean of -3.1 pts and 2.3 times their own 5.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
71Mike OnwenuG · Every snap100%69 snaps
74Mike JordanG · Every snap100%69 snaps
77Ben BrownG · Every snap100%69 snaps
10Drake MayeQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
59Vederian LoweT · Every snap100%69 snaps
9Kayshon BoutteWR · Full-time96%66 snaps
85Hunter HenryTE · Full-time87%60 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Heavy rotation78%54 snaps
38Rhamondre StevensonRB · Heavy rotation74%51 snaps
3Demario DouglasWR · Heavy rotation71%49 snaps
75Demontrey JacobsT · Heavy rotation70%48 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Rotational39%27 snaps
64Layden RobinsonG · Rotational30%21 snaps
39JaMycal HastyRB · Situational14%10 snaps
1Ja'Lynn PolkWR · Situational13%9 snaps
4Antonio GibsonRB · Situational12%8 snaps
6Javon BakerWR · Situational6%4 snaps
62Sidy SowG · Situational6%4 snaps
88Jaheim BellTE · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 5
Eric JohnsonDTKyle DuggerFSJoe Milton IIIQBTyquan ThorntonWRK.J. OsbornWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Lecitus SmithGJacoby BrissettQBZach ThomasT
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
60Daniel BrunskillC · Every snap100%77 snaps
77Peter SkoronskiG · Every snap100%77 snaps
55JC LathamT · Every snap100%77 snaps
11Mason RudolphQB · Every snap100%77 snaps
15Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Full-time97%75 snaps
0Calvin RidleyWR · Full-time94%72 snaps
20Tony PollardRB · Full-time86%66 snaps
85Chig OkonkwoTE · Heavy rotation73%56 snaps
72Leroy Watson IVT · Heavy rotation68%52 snaps
79Lloyd Cushenberry IIIC · Heavy rotation56%43 snaps
84Nick VannettTE · Rotational47%36 snaps
62Corey LevinC · Rotational44%34 snaps
61John OjukwuT · Rotational39%30 snaps
19Jha'Quan JacksonWR · Rotational30%23 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Rotational29%22 snaps
36Julius ChestnutRB · Situational17%13 snaps
81Josh WhyleTE · Situational16%12 snaps
80Bryce OliverWR · Situational6%5 snaps
Inactive · 7
Tre AveryCBL'Jarius SneedCBCedric GrayILBWill LevisQBTyjae SpearsRBDillon RadunzTDavid Martin-RobinsonTE
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
D.Maye pass−43% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:17) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle intended for 9-K.Boutte INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Hooker at TEN 11. 37-A.Hooker to TEN 13 for 2 yards.
OT 2:17 · Patriots · 1st & 10 at NE 41 · gained nothing · -2.25 EP · −43.0% win probability
176 snaps placed · 18 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 194 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 188. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 75 yards from the TEN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
194 of 194 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
194
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
41%
Yards
695
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.0851%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.0972%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.2647%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.1065%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
194 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
194 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Patriots0Titans6
Patriots0Titans7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Patriots 9
No good7 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Titans 34
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 46 to the Patriots 37
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 27
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 24 to the Patriots 49
The period ended3 plays, from the Patriots 47 to the Patriots 48
2nd quarter48 plays
Intercepted1 play
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Patriots 40 to the Patriots 3
Patriots3Titans7
Field goal11 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Titans 34
Punt11 plays, from the Titans 23 to midfield
The period ended6 plays, from the Patriots 15 to the Patriots 38
The period ended12 plays, from the Titans 48 to the Patriots 35
3rd quarter37 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Patriots9Titans7
Patriots10Titans7
Touchdown18 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Titans 1
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Patriots10Titans10
Field goal16 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Patriots 3
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter51 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Patriots 24 to the Patriots 29
The period ended7 plays, from the Titans 16 to the Titans 47
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Patriots 9 to the Patriots 35
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Patriots10Titans16
Patriots10Titans17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 26 to the Patriots 6
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 43
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 14 to the Titans 17
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw11.8 seconds
Patriots16Titans17
Patriots17Titans17
Touchdown14 plays, from midfield to the Titans 5
Overtime21 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Patriots17Titans20
Field goal16 plays, from the Titans 22 to the Patriots 6
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
