2024 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 3, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium

New Orleans Saints

Carolina PanthersWinner

NO -7 upsetO 43.5 ✓Saints closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Carolina Panthers 23–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:09, NO +28% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:09NO 22 — CAR 23NO ball · 4th & 4CAR 64%

(1:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 11-C.Wilson (2-M.Jackson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:09NO +28% win prob(1:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 11-C.Wilson (2-M.Jackson).
Q4 · 12:02CAR +18% win prob(12:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 87-F.Moreau for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 3:14CAR +14% win prob(3:14) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 17-X.Legette to NO 38 for 26 yards (27-S.Jean-Charles; 31-J.Howden).
Q4 · 1:38NO +14% win prob(1:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at NO 34 for -6 yards (40-C.Harris).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:54NO Field goal
(10:54) 19-B.Grupe 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.
Score after this play: NO 3 — CAR 0
Q1 · 3:11NO Field goal
(3:11) 19-B.Grupe 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.
Score after this play: NO 6 — CAR 0
Q2 · 10:03CAR Touchdown
(10:03) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 17-X.Legette for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 6 — CAR 7
Q2 · 4:18NO Touchdown
(4:18) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 13 — CAR 7
Q2 · 0:42CAR Field goal
(:42) 4-E.Pineiro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: NO 13 — CAR 10
Q3 · 9:59CAR Touchdown
(9:59) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 13 — CAR 17
Q3 · 4:20NO Field goal
(4:20) 19-B.Grupe 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.
Score after this play: NO 16 — CAR 17
Q4 · 12:02NO Touchdown
(12:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 87-F.Moreau for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: NO 22 — CAR 17
Q4 · 2:24CAR Touchdown
(2:24) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: NO 22 — CAR 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Panthers
Offensive plays	75	49
Total yards	427 (edge)	249
Yards per play	5.7 (edge)	5.1
Expected points added / play	0.13 (edge)	-0.01
Success rate	45% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	45%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	0.03
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18 (edge)	-0.07
Third downs	5/15	4/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Derek CarrQB

18/31, 236 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

3.4 expected points added · +0.3% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

16/26, 171 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-0.6 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

29 att, 155 yds, 0 TD

2.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

15 att, 72 yds, 2 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Ja'Tavion SandersTE

4/5 for 87 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

6/9 for 60 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · -0.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 22	11	67	4:09	Field goal +3
2	CAR	CAR 30	7	13	2:36	Punt
3	NO	NO 13	11	57	5:07	Field goal +3
4	CAR	CAR 30	6	20	2:20	Punt
5	NO	NO 8	4	2	0:59	Punt
6	CAR	NO 40	9	45	4:50	Touchdown +7
7	NO	NO 22	11	68	5:46	Touchdown +7
8	CAR	CAR 30	7	28	2:31	Punt
9	NO	NO 12	4	-1	0:25	Punt
10	CAR	NO 28	4	-2	0:39	Field goal +3
11	NO	NO 24	4	50	0:38	End of half
12	CAR	CAR 14	11	86	5:05	Touchdown +7
13	NO	NO 30	13	37	5:40	Field goal +3
14	CAR	CAR 25	5	-3	1:40	Punt
15	NO	NO 30	12	70	5:40	Touchdown +6
16	CAR	CAR 17	5	16	2:41	Interception
17	NO	NO 26	7	40	3:32	Punt
18	CAR	CAR 15	4	4	1:07	Punt
19	NO	NO 26	4	11	1:09	Punt
20	CAR	CAR 36	5	42	1:08	Touchdown +6
21	NO	NO 20	7	26	1:14	Turnover on downs
22	CAR	NO 45	2	0	1:04	End of game

9 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 86 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	18/31	236	1	0	1	3.4
Taysom Hill	0/1	0	0	0	0	-1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	29	155	5.3	0	2.8
Taysom Hill	5	19	3.8	1	4.3
Jordan Mims	5	13	2.6	0	-1.7
Matthew Hayball	1	11	11.0	0	2.9
Jermaine Jackson	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Alvin Kamara	6	9	60	0	32%	-0.7
Taysom Hill	4	5	41	0	18%	4.1
Juwan Johnson	2	2	41	0	7%	3.6
Cedrick Wilson	2	3	34	0	11%	-0.0
Jordan Mims	1	1	25	0	4%	-0.3
Foster Moreau	1	2	17	1	7%	2.1
Chris Olave	1	1	13	0	4%	1.2
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1	1	5	0	4%	-0.4
Adam Prentice	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.1
Mason Tipton	0	3	0	0	11%	-2.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Pete Werner	5	3	0.0	0	0
Jordan Howden	1	5	0.0	0	0
Alontae Taylor	3	1	0.0	0	3
Demario Davis	2	2	0.0	0	0
Nathan Shepherd	0	4	0.5	0	0
D'Marco Jackson	2	1	0.0	0	0
Carl Granderson	2	1	0.5	0	0
Willie Gay	2	0	0.0	0	0
Shemar Jean-Charles	0	2	0.0	1	1
Payton Turner	2	0	0.0	0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bryce Young	16/26	171	1	1	1	-0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chuba Hubbard	15	72	4.8	2	2.4
Bryce Young	4	9	2.3	0	0.1
Xavier Legette	1	6	6.0	0	0.1
Deven Thompkins	1	-2	-2.0	0	-0.9
Miles Sanders	2	-5	-2.5	0	-3.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Tavion Sanders	4	5	87	0	21%	6.2
Jalen Coker	2	3	36	0	13%	3.3
Xavier Legette	4	6	33	1	25%	-1.9
David Moore	2	4	20	0	17%	1.5
Chuba Hubbard	2	3	0	0	13%	-1.7
Jonathan Mingo	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5
Miles Sanders	2	2	-5	0	8%	-3.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Demani Richardson	7	4	0.0	1
Charles Harris	5	1	1.0	0
Josey Jewell	1	5	0.0	0
Nick Thurman	1	5	0.0	0
Chau Smith-Wade	4	2	0.0	0
Cam Gill	1	4	0.0	0
LaBryan Ray	2	3	0.0	0
Trevin Wallace	2	3	0.0	0
Xavier Woods	3	2	0.0	0
Jadeveon Clowney	2	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -7
Closing total: 43.5
NO moneyline: -345
CAR moneyline: +275

Saints closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 45 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 66°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: NO 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Dennis Allen vs Dave Canales

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.