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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 18.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Saints167 of 178 plays carry both curves
(1:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 11-C.Wilson (2-M.Jackson).
Swing +28.5 for PanthersExpected points +1.81 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 4 points higher than the market did.play 174
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:09NO +28% win prob(1:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 11-C.Wilson (2-M.Jackson).
4th · 12:02CAR +18% win prob(12:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 87-F.Moreau for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:14CAR +14% win prob(3:14) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 17-X.Legette to NO 38 for 26 yards (27-S.Jean-Charles; 31-J.Howden).
4th · 1:38NO +14% win prob(1:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at NO 34 for -6 yards (40-C.Harris).
4th · 2:24CAR +11% win prob(2:24) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:30CAR +9% win prob(2:30) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 0-J.Sanders. PENALTY on NO-56-D.Davis, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at NO 38 - No Play.
2nd · 10:03
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chuba Hubbard's 16-yard rushing touchdown with 2:24 left in the 4th put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:54Blake Grupe·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder M.Hayball · snap Z.Wood+33–0
1st3:11Blake Grupe·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder M.Hayball · snap Z.Wood+36–0
4th2:24Chuba Hubbard·16-yd TD run16-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no goodLead never changed again+622–23
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Saintscategory by categoryPanthers
Saints6–2Panthers
427Total yards249
5.7Yards per play5.1
45%Success rate39%
33%Third-down rate40%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays5
24First downs14
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Saints ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Saints: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.01Panthers: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.07Saints: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.03Panthers: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.18Saints: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.07Panthers: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 75 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Panthers’s 49 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Saints 4, Panthers 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
NO's pass rate over expected, −18.8 pts, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 9 — 5.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −13.1 pts in week 2.
2.0 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 8.
74 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
NO's early-down pass rate turned over: 68.0% in week 8 against 33.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · −2.0 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Panthers14.7%
leaned — got home · +4.7 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (+1.23× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteNO's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -18.8 pts, 13.7 points below their season mean of -5.1 pts and 2.0 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass−23% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 11-C.Wilson (2-M.Jackson).
Q4 1:09 · Saints · 4th & 4 at NO 46 · gained nothing · -1.81 EP · −23.1% win probability
165 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 86 yards from the CAR 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
41%
Yards
673
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR40+0.0560%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.0671%
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR15+0.0527%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.0730%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.1038%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR6+0.1933%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Saints3Panthers0
Field goal11 plays, from the Saints 22 to the Panthers 11
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 30 to midfield
Saints6Panthers0
Field goal12 plays, from the Saints 13 to the Panthers 15
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Saints 45
The period ended3 plays, from the Saints 8 to the Saints 10
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt2 plays
Saints6Panthers6
Saints6Panthers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 40 to the Saints 3
Saints12Panthers7
Saints13Panthers7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 22 to the Panthers 7
Punt9 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Saints 42
Punt4 plays
Saints13Panthers10
Field goal5 plays, from the Saints 28 to the Saints 25
The period ended7 plays, from the Saints 24 to the Saints 49
3rd quarter37 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Saints13Panthers16
Saints13Panthers17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Panthers 14 to the Saints 1
Saints16Panthers17
Field goal14 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Panthers 32
Punt5 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Panthers 42
4th quarter50 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Saints22Panthers17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Panthers 39 to the Panthers 17
Intercepted6 plays, from the Panthers 17 to midfield
Punt9 plays, from the Saints 26 to the Saints 46
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 15 to the Panthers 19
Punt6 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Saints22Panthers23
Touchdown7 plays, from the Panthers 36 to the Saints 16
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 46
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Saints -7
Closing total
43.5
Saints moneyline
-345
Panthers moneyline
+275
Saints closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 45 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 64°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the north-east; overcast.
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
Saints 7 days · Panthers 7 days
Coaches
Dennis Allen vs Dave Canales
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
CAR +9% win prob
(10:03) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 17-X.Legette for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 14:13CAR +9% win prob(14:13) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 0-J.Sanders to NO 39 for 46 yards (31-J.Howden; 27-S.Jean-Charles) [93-N.Shepherd].
