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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 3, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 9
It turned at Q4 1:09, 4th and 4, on Derek Carr — 28.5 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Carolina Panthers 23–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:09, Panthers +28.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:09 · 4th and 4
Derek Carr
Panthers
(1:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 11-C.Wilson (2-M.Jackson).
28.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Panthers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Saints at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Saints owned this one and still lost it — +0.18 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.07 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Saints owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Panthers at 1 giveaway.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 18.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(1:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 11-C.Wilson (2-M.Jackson).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Chuba Hubbard's 16-yard rushing touchdown with 2:24 left in the 4th put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Foster Moreau17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Derek Carr · two-point no good+622–17
Chuba Hubbard16-yd TD run16-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no goodLead never changed again+622–239 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Saintscategory by categoryPanthers
Saints ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 75 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Panthers’s 49 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Saints 4, Panthers 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's pass rate over expected, −18.8 pts, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 9 — 5.5 points clear of the next team along.
74 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points. · −2.0σ from their own normal
CAR's sack or hit rate, 14.7%, is past their previous high of 13.0% in week 3 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.8 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
NO's early-down pass rate turned over: 68.0% in week 8 against 33.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.9 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Saints-18.8 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −13.7 vs their -5.1 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−2.01× that swing) · 74 snaps
Panthers-5.1 ptsright on their number · −2.6 vs their -2.6 pts, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 48 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 91%
Tendencies room →Saints33.9%leaned — ran early · −22.1 vs their 56.0%, and they swing ±13.9 week to week (−1.59× that swing) · 56 early downs
Panthers52.6%right on their number · −4.1 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 38 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15% to 61%
Tendencies room →Saints17.6%right on their number · −5.3 vs their 23.0%, and they swing ±14.7 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Panthers26.7%inside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their 22.0%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 122%
Fourth Down room →Saints42.9%right on their number · +7.7 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±28.3 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 7 fourth-and-short calls
Panthers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 41.9%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 49%
Tendencies room →Saints20.0%right on their number · −4.1 vs their 24.1%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Panthers29.4%right on their number · −0.1 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 30%
Tendencies room →Saints10.0%right on their number · −2.0 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Panthers14.7%leaned — got home · +4.7 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (+1.23× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NO's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -18.8 pts, 13.7 points below their season mean of -5.1 pts and 2.0 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
18/31, 236 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
3.4 expected points added · +0.3% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
16/26, 171 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-0.6 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected
Receiving · CAR
4/5 for 87 yds, 0 TD
21% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Ja'Tavion Sanders banked 5.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin KamaraRB · Bell Cow Back | 27.5 | −0.7 | 77% | 76% | 32% | 7% | 29 car, 155 yd · 6/9, 60 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB · Bell Cow Back | 21.2 | +2.8 | 79% | 73% | 13% | 0% | 15 car, 72 yd, 2 TD · 2/3, 0 yd |
| Taysom HillQB · Starter QB | 16.0 | +5.1 | 44% | — | 18% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd · 5 car, 19 yd, 1 TD · 4/5, 41 yd |
| Xavier LegetteWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.9 | +2.2 | 83% | 93% | 25% | 26% | 1 car, 6 yd · 4/6, 33 yd, 1 TD |
| Derek CarrQB · Starter QB | 13.4 | −1.6 | 99% | — | 0% | — | 18/31, 236 yd, 1 TD |
| Ja'Tavion SandersTE · Featured Receiver | 12.7 | +5.5 | 85% | 83% | 21% | 21% | 4/5, 87 yd |
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 9.7 | −4.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/26, 171 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 9 yd |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.7 | +2.7 | 80% | 71% | 7% | 15% | 1/2, 17 yd, 1 TD |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | +1.6 | 65% | 74% | 7% | 15% | 2/2, 41 yd |
| Jalen CokerWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | +0.3 | 45% | 60% | 13% | 26% | 2/3, 36 yd |
| Cedrick WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | +0.3 | 47% | 44% | 11% | 26% | 2/3, 34 yd |
| Jordan MimsRB | 4.8 | +0.7 | 15% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 5 car, 13 yd · 1/1, 25 yd |
| David MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −3.5 | 87% | 93% | 17% | 29% | 2/4, 20 yd |
| Chris OlaveWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +0.8 | 10% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 50% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Miles SandersRB | 1.0 | −2.9 | 23% | 27% | 8% | 0% | 2 car, -5 yd · 2/2, -5 yd |
| Jordan MatthewsTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jonathan MingoWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 28% | 30% | 4% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Raheem BlackshearRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Mason TiptonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.3 | 76% | 85% | 11% | 27% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Adam PrenticeRB | 0.0 | −0.9 | 27% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Dallin HolkerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 15% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jermaine JacksonWR · Rotational Receiver | -0.1 | −0.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Deven ThompkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | -0.2 | −0.8 | 15% | 10% | 0% | — | 1 car, -2 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 11-C.Wilson (2-M.Jackson).
Q4 1:09 · Saints · 4th & 4 at NO 46 · gained nothing · -1.81 EP · −23.1% win probability
165 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 178 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 86 yards from the CAR 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Saints3
Panthers0Saints6Panthers0Saints6Panthers6Saints6Panthers7Saints12Panthers7Saints13Panthers7Saints13Panthers10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
Saints13Panthers16Saints13Panthers17Saints16Panthers17How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Saints22Panthers17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Saints22Panthers23How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Saints at Panthers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 18/31 | 236 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3.4 |
| Taysom Hill | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 29 | 155 | 5.3 | 0 | +2.8 |
| Taysom Hill | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 1 | +4.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 9 | 60 | 0 | 32% | −0.7 |
| Taysom Hill | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 18% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Werner | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Howden | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alontae Taylor |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 16/26 | 171 | 1 | 1 | 1 | −0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_09_NO_CAR
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Saints closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 45 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Jordan Mims | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Matthew Hayball | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +2.9 |
| Jermaine Jackson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| +4.1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 2 | 41 | 0 | 7% | +3.6 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 11% | −0.0 |
| Jordan Mims | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 7% | +2.1 |
| Chris Olave | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4% | +1.2 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Adam Prentice | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.1 |
| Mason Tipton | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11% | −2.5 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 3 |
| Demario Davis | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Shepherd | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| D'Marco Jackson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Willie Gay | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shemar Jean-Charles | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Payton Turner | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 15 | 72 | 4.8 | 2 | +2.4 |
| Bryce Young | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Xavier Legette | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 4 | 5 | 87 | 0 | 21% | +6.2 |
| Jalen Coker | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 13% | +3.3 |
| Xavier Legette | 4 | 6 | 33 | 1 | 25% | −1.9 |
| David Moore | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 17% | +1.5 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13% | −1.7 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 2 | -5 | 0 | 8% | −3.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demani Richardson | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Charles Harris | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josey Jewell | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Thurman | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chau Smith-Wade | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Gill | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| LaBryan Ray | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevin Wallace | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Woods | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jadeveon Clowney | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
