2024 Week 9 · Mon, Nov 4, 2024 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -9 no coverO 45.5 ✓Chiefs closed -9, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Kansas City Chiefs 30–24. Biggest swing: OT 7:30, KC +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 7:30TB 24 — KC 24KC ball · 2nd & 6KC 66%

(7:30) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 8-D.Hopkins pushed ob at TB 28 for 15 yards (31-A.Winfield).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 7:30KC +17% win prob(7:30) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 8-D.Hopkins pushed ob at TB 28 for 15 yards (31-A.Winfield).
Q4 · 0:13TB +15% win prob(:13) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to TB 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-31-N.Jones.
Q4 · 4:20KC +13% win prob(4:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 8-D.Hopkins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 6:17KC +12% win prob(6:17) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 8-D.Hopkins to TB 3 for 35 yards (32-J.Hayes) [94-C.Kancey].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 2:20KC Field goal
(2:20) 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Score after this play: TB 0 — KC 3
Q2 · 10:28TB Touchdown
(10:28) 1-R.White left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 7 — KC 3
Q2 · 4:09KC Touchdown
(4:09) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 8-D.Hopkins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 7 — KC 10
Q3 · 11:40TB Touchdown
(11:40) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-C.Otton for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 14 — KC 10
Q3 · 5:55TB Field goal
(5:55) 4-C.McLaughlin 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: TB 17 — KC 10
Q4 · 14:21KC Touchdown
(14:21) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 34-S.Perine for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-15-P.Mahomes was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 17 — KC 17
Q4 · 4:20KC Touchdown
(4:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 8-D.Hopkins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 17 — KC 24
Q4 · 0:30TB Touchdown
(:30) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 81-R.Miller for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 24 — KC 24
OT · 4:15KC Touchdown
(4:15) 64-W.Morris reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: TB 24 — KC 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Chiefs
Offensive plays	52	83
Total yards	284	384 (edge)
Yards per play	5.5 (edge)	4.6
Expected points added / play	0.19 (edge)	0.14
Success rate	42%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.19	0.26 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.19 (edge)	-0.04
Third downs	5/12	12/18 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	28 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

34/44, 291 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

16.1 expected points added · +12.4% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

23/31, 200 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.6 expected points added · +3.2% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Kareem HuntRB

27 att, 106 yds, 1 TD

3.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Bucky IrvingRB

7 att, 24 yds, 0 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

14/16 for 100 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 2.0 expected points added

Receiving · KC

DeAndre HopkinsWR

8/9 for 86 yds, 2 TD

21% of team targets · 9.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 30	12	29	5:44	Punt
2	TB	TB 6	6	23	2:26	Punt
3	KC	KC 45	8	33	4:34	Field goal +3
4	TB	TB 30	13	70	6:53	Touchdown +7
5	KC	KC 30	13	70	6:18	Touchdown +7
6	TB	TB 20	5	6	2:18	Punt
7	KC	KC 17	6	37	0:52	Fumble
8	TB	TB 45	5	16	0:30	Punt
9	KC	KC 17	3	6	0:25	End of half
10	TB	TB 49	8	36	3:24	Touchdown +7
11	KC	KC 30	5	-12	1:05	Punt
12	TB	TB 41	8	50	4:41	Field goal +3
13	KC	KC 30	14	70	6:36	Touchdown +7
14	TB	TB 30	5	8	1:31	Punt
15	KC	KC 22	16	73	8:26	Touchdown +7
16	TB	TB 30	5	-6	1:38	Punt
17	KC	KC 35	4	-1	0:23	Punt
18	TB	TB 29	11	81	1:49	Touchdown +7
19	KC	KC 30	5	9	0:27	Punt
20	KC	KC 30	11	70	5:52	Touchdown +6

9 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 81 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	23/31	200	2	0	2	7.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Bucky Irving	7	24	3.4	0	-1.3
Sterling Shepard	2	21	10.5	0	1.4
Baker Mayfield	4	20	5.0	0	-1.3
Rachaad White	3	19	6.3	1	2.1
Sean Tucker	3	11	3.7	0	1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cade Otton	8	11	77	1	35%	4.9
Sterling Shepard	4	5	48	0	16%	3.9
Trey Palmer	2	4	33	0	13%	1.4
Rachaad White	3	3	16	0	10%	-1.0
Bucky Irving	3	3	10	0	10%	-1.0
Rakim Jarrett	1	1	9	0	3%	0.7
Sean Tucker	1	1	6	0	3%	0.5
Ryan Miller	1	3	1	1	10%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Antoine Winfield	5	7	0.0	0
Tykee Smith	8	1	0.0	1
Lavonte David	5	3	0.0	0
Jordan Whitehead	4	4	0.0	0
Vita Vea	5	3	2.0	0
K.J. Britt	5	3	0.0	1
Zyon McCollum	3	4	0.0	0
Josh Hayes	5	1	0.0	1
J.J. Russell	3	2	0.0	0
YaYa Diaby	3	2	0.0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	34/44	291	3	0	4	16.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kareem Hunt	27	106	3.9	1	3.0
Samaje Perine	1	10	10.0	0	0.0
Patrick Mahomes	2	9	4.5	0	0.5
Carson Steele	3	9	3.0	0	-1.9
Xavier Worthy	2	-10	-5.0	0	-2.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	14	16	100	0	38%	2.0
DeAndre Hopkins	8	9	86	2	21%	9.4
Justin Watson	3	4	43	0	10%	5.1
Samaje Perine	4	5	25	1	12%	2.1
Mecole Hardman	3	3	17	0	7%	1.6
Kareem Hunt	1	1	11	0	2%	0.6
Peyton Hendershot	1	1	9	0	2%	0.2
Noah Gray	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5
Xavier Worthy	0	2	0	0	5%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Drue Tranquill	3	4	0.5	0
Christian Roland-Wallace	4	2	0.0	0
Bryan Cook	3	2	0.0	0
Justin Reid	3	1	0.0	1
Felix Anudike-Uzomah	2	2	0.5	0
Joshua Williams	3	1	0.0	0
George Karlaftis	2	1	1.0	1
Nick Bolton	1	2	0.0	0
Chris Jones	2	0	0.0	0
Joshua Uche	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -9
Closing total: 45.5
TB moneyline: +330
KC moneyline: -425

Chiefs closed -9, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 54 — over by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 63°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: TB 8 days · KC 8 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs Andy Reid