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2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Buccaneers172 of 184 plays carry both curves
(7:30) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 8-D.Hopkins pushed ob at TB 28 for 15 yards (31-A.Winfield).
Swing +17.2 for ChiefsExpected points +1.33 for ChiefsModel and market agree here.play 177
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 7:30KC +17% win prob(7:30) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 8-D.Hopkins pushed ob at TB 28 for 15 yards (31-A.Winfield).
4th · 0:13TB +15% win prob(:13) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to TB 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-31-N.Jones.
4th · 4:20KC +13% win prob(4:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 8-D.Hopkins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 6:17KC +12% win prob(6:17) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 8-D.Hopkins to TB 3 for 35 yards (32-J.Hayes) [94-C.Kancey].
3rd · 8:15KC +11% win prob(8:15) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-C.Otton to KC 28 for 15 yards (30-C.Roland-Wallace). KC-98-T.Wharton was injured during the play. KC-56-G.Karlaftis was injured during the play.
4th · 8:52KC +10% win prob(8:52) 64-W.Morris reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt right guard to KC 49 for 3 yards (31-A.Winfield; 50-V.Vea).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kareem Hunt's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 4:15 left in overtime put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st2:20Harrison Butker·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+30–3
Overtime4:15Kareem Hunt·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+624–30
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryChiefs
Buccaneers3–6Chiefs
284Total yards384
5.5Yards per play4.6
42%Success rate48%
42%Third-down rate67%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
2Explosive plays5
15First downs28
2Sacks taken4
0Turnovers1
The read
Chiefs ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Buccaneers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.19Buccaneers: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.14Chiefs: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.19Buccaneers: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.26Chiefs: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.19Buccaneers: +0.19 expected points added per play
−0.04Chiefs: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 52 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 83 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 3, Chiefs 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 8 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · −1.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Chiefs8.3%
inside their normal wobble · −9.4 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteTB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 70.0%, 14.8 points above their season mean of 55.2% and 1.5 times their own 10.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
P.Mahomes pass+17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(7:30) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 8-D.Hopkins pushed ob at TB 28 for 15 yards (31-A.Winfield).
OT 7:30 · Chiefs · 2nd & 6 at TB 43 · gained 15 · +1.33 EP · +17.2% win probability
170 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 178. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 81 yards from the TB 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
47%
Yards
668
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR39+0.0267%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.0174%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.2560%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.4750%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.1325%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Chiefs0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Buccaneers 32
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 6 to the Buccaneers 29
Buccaneers0Chiefs3
Field goal8 plays, from the Chiefs 45 to the Buccaneers 20
The period ended6 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Buccaneers 39
2nd quarter46 plays
Buccaneers6Chiefs3
Buccaneers7Chiefs3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 42 to the Chiefs 7
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
Buccaneers7Chiefs9
Buccaneers7Chiefs10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Buccaneers 1
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 26
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Chiefs 17 to the Chiefs 48
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 45 to the Chiefs 49
The period ended5 plays, from the Chiefs 17 to the Chiefs 30
3rd quarter36 plays
Buccaneers13Chiefs10
Buccaneers14Chiefs10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 49 to the Chiefs 11
Punt5 plays
Buccaneers17Chiefs10
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 41 to the Chiefs 28
The period ended13 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Buccaneers 8
4th quarter56 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.3 seconds
Buccaneers17Chiefs16
Buccaneers17Chiefs17
Touchdown3 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Buccaneers 7
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Buccaneers 38
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Buccaneers17Chiefs23
Buccaneers17Chiefs24
Touchdown17 plays, from the Chiefs 22 to the Buccaneers 5
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Buccaneers 32
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Chiefs 36
Buccaneers23Chiefs24
Buccaneers24Chiefs24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Chiefs 1
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Chiefs 39
Overtime13 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Buccaneers24Chiefs30
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Buccaneers 2
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
