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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 3, 2024 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 9
It turned at Q1 8:23, 1st and 10, on Daniel Jones — 17.8 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:23 · 1st and 10
Daniel Jones
Commanders
(8:23) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 26-D.Singletary (6-D.Fowler) [6-D.Fowler]. Washington challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 8-D.Jones sacked at WAS 39 for -10 yards (6-D.Fowler). FUMBLES (6-D.Fowler) [6-D.Fowler], touched at WAS 37, RECOVERED by WAS-54-B.Wagner at NYG 31.
Washington Commanders 27–22. Biggest swing: Q1 8:23, Commanders +17.8% win probability on one snap.
17.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.54 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.05 expected points per dropback.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Commanders won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Commanders won this one — +0.31 expected points per snap, against Giants at +0.11 expected points per snap.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Commanders won this one — no giveaways, against Giants at 1 giveaway.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(8:23) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 26-D.Singletary (6-D.Fowler) [6-D.Fowler]. Washington challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 8-D.Jones sacked at WAS 39 for -10 yards (6-D.Fowle
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Austin Ekeler's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 6:25 left in the 2nd put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Theo Johnson35-yd TD catch35-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jones · two-point no good+627–229 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Commanderscategory by categoryGiants
Commanders ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 57 snaps at a 44% dropback rate against Giants’s 61 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 6, Giants 4.
Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs 0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's play-action rate, 44.0%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 9 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
WAS's early-down pass rate, 36.4%, is past their previous low of 39.2% in week 7 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
NYG's play-action rate, 38.7%, is past their previous high of 35.9% in week 5 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
WAS's blitz rate sent turned over: 45.5% in week 8 against 22.6% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.7 points.
NYG's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.0% in week 8 against 8.0% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Commanders-5.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −5.4 vs their -0.3 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 57 snaps
Giants-13.2 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.6 vs their -3.6 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−1.29× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 29% to 82%
Tendencies room →Commanders36.4%leaned — ran early · −18.8 vs their 55.1%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−1.84× that swing) · 44 early downs
Giants47.8%leaned — ran early · −10.0 vs their 57.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 50%
Tendencies room →Commanders44.0%leaned — faked the run · +17.9 vs their 26.1%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+1.95× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Giants38.7%leaned — faked the run · +14.8 vs their 24.0%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+1.42× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23% to 126%
Fourth Down room →Commanders40.0%right on their number · −11.7 vs their 51.7%, and they swing ±29.2 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Giants66.7%leaned — went for it · +26.9 vs their 39.8%, and they swing ±22.4 week to week (+1.20× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 65%
Tendencies room →Commanders22.6%leaned — sat back · −14.3 vs their 36.9%, and they swing ±10.7 week to week (−1.34× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Giants32.0%right on their number · +2.8 vs their 29.2%, and they swing ±12.2 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 34%
Tendencies room →Commanders12.9%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Giants8.0%inside their normal wobble · −6.9 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
WAS's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 44.0%, 17.9 points above their season mean of 26.1% and 2.0 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New York Giants
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · WAS
15/22, 209 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
9.8 expected points added · +11.9% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
20/26, 174 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-2.0 expected points added · +9.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Terry McLaurin banked 7.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel JonesQB · Starter QB | 24.4 | +6.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/26, 174 yd, 2 TD · 7 car, 54 yd, 1 TD |
| Jayden DanielsQB · Starter QB | 19.9 | +3.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/22, 209 yd, 2 TD · 8 car, 35 yd |
| Austin EkelerRB · Committee Back | 17.3 | +1.6 | 47% | 48% | 21% | 0% | 11 car, 42 yd, 1 TD · 3/4, 41 yd |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Rotational Receiver | 15.9 | +7.7 | 74% | 72% | 16% | 27% | 2/3, 19 yd, 2 TD |
| Malik NabersWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.9 | −1.5 | 95% | 94% | 42% | 31% | 9/11, 59 yd |
| Theo JohnsonTE · Featured Receiver | 14.1 | +4.9 | 85% | 94% | 23% | 42% | 3/6, 51 yd, 1 TD |
| Noah BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.0 | +1.9 | 50% | 64% | 32% | 43% | 5/6, 60 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.0 | +3.0 | 92% | 84% | 12% | 21% | 1 car, 11 yd · 3/3, 49 yd |
| Tyrone TracyRB · Committee Back | 7.9 | −2.7 | 72% | 71% | 4% | 1% | 16 car, 66 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | +3.5 | 25% | 23% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd, 1 TD |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.8 | +3.5 | 39% | 20% | 11% | 20% | 2/2, 48 yd |
| Chris RodriguezRB | 5.2 | −4.1 | 32% | 16% | 0% | — | 11 car, 52 yd |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −1.3 | 72% | 71% | 15% | 5% | 3/4, 10 yd |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | +2.0 | 42% | 32% | 5% | 0% | 1/1, 24 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB | 3.3 | +0.2 | 28% | 26% | 0% | — | 7 car, 33 yd |
| Ben SinnottTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.5 | 39% | 32% | 5% | 3% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Jeremy McNicholsRB | 2.0 | −4.4 | 39% | 40% | 5% | 0% | 8 car, 20 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Zach ErtzTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.2 | 48% | 52% | 5% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Eric GrayRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:23) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 26-D.Singletary (6-D.Fowler) [6-D.Fowler]. Washington challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 8-D.Jones sacked at WAS 39 for -10 yards (6-D.Fowler). FUMBLES (6-D.Fowler) [6-D.Fowler], touched at WAS 37, RECOVERED by WAS-54-B.Wagner at NYG 31.
Q1 8:23 · Giants · 1st & 10 at WAS 29 · lost 8 · -8.10 EP · −24.4% win probability
150 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 161 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 87 yards from the WAS 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Commanders6
Giants0Commanders7Giants0Commanders7Giants6Commanders7Giants7Commanders13Giants7Commanders14Giants7Commanders20Giants7Commanders21Giants7Commanders21Giants10Commanders24Giants10Commanders24Giants16Commanders27Giants16How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Commanders27Giants22Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Commanders at Giants, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 15/22 | 209 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +9.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 0 | +3.0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 1 | +2.7 |
| Jayden Daniels | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Brown | 5 | 6 | 60 | 0 | 32% | +2.2 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 | 11% | +2.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Chinn | 5 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dante Fowler | 3 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benjamin St-Juste | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jer'Zhan Newton |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 20/26 | 174 | 2 | 0 | 2 | −2.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_09_WAS_NYG
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Commanders closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 49 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Jeremy McNichols | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 21% | +3.0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 5% | +1.3 |
| Terry McLaurin | 2 | 3 | 19 | 2 | 16% | +4.0 |
| Ben Sinnott | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 5% | +1.2 |
| Zach Ertz | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5% | −0.1 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.4 |
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Bobby Wagner | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Frankie Luvu | 0 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dorance Armstrong | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Percy Butler | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Sainristil | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Payne | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 |
| 66 |
| 4.1 |
| 0 |
| −1.9 |
| Daniel Jones | 7 | 54 | 7.7 | 1 | +7.3 |
| Devin Singletary | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 9 | 11 | 59 | 0 | 42% | +3.6 |
| Theo Johnson | 3 | 6 | 51 | 1 | 23% | +1.3 |
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 | 12% | +3.9 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 15% | +0.5 |
| Tyrone Tracy | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah McFadden | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Okereke | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dexter Lawrence | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Pinnock | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Nubin | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cordale Flott | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Burns | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tomon Fox | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andru Phillips | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azeez Ojulari | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
