2024 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 10, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Atlanta Falcons
17
New Orleans SaintsWinner
20
New Orleans Saints 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:07, ATL +32% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(2:07) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu [93-N.Shepherd] at NO 32. 32-T.Mathieu to NO 38 for 6 yards (5-D.London).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 2:07ATL +32% win prob(2:07) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu [93-N.Shepherd] at NO 32. 32-T.Mathieu to NO 38 for 6 yards (5-D.London).
- Q4 · 6:43ATL +22% win prob(6:43) 6-Y.Koo 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
- Q4 · 0:41ATL +20% win prob(:41) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins sacked at ATL 42 for -9 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young) [99-C.Young], touched at ATL 42, recovered by ATL-70-Ja.Matthews at ATL 32.
- Q2 · 10:57NO +14% win prob(10:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 10-M.Valdes-Scantling for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q2 · 14:55NO Field goal
(14:55) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.
Score after this play: ATL 0 — NO 3 - Q2 · 10:57NO Touchdown
(10:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 10-M.Valdes-Scantling for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 0 — NO 10 - Q2 · 5:48ATL Touchdown
(5:48) 7-B.Robinson left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 7 — NO 10 - Q2 · 3:51NO Touchdown
(3:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 10-M.Valdes-Scantling for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 7 — NO 17 - Q3 · 5:46ATL Field goal
(5:46) 6-Y.Koo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ** Injury Update: NO-31-J.Howden has returned to the game.
Score after this play: ATL 10 — NO 17 - Q3 · 2:48NO Field goal
(2:48) 19-B.Grupe 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.
Score after this play: ATL 10 — NO 20 - Q3 · 1:10ATL Touchdown
(1:10) 7-B.Robinson right end for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 17 — NO 20
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Falcons | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 73 | 51 |
| Total yards | 468 (edge) | 366 |
| Yards per play | 6.4 | 7.2 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.07 (edge) | 0.00 |
| Success rate | 52% (edge) | 37% |
| Dropback rate | 56% | 53% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.03 | 0.22 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.21 (edge) | -0.24 |
| Third downs | 5/14 | 5/13 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 7 | 7 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 21 (edge) | 13 |
| Sacks taken | 3 | 0 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 (edge) |
Falcons outgained Saints 468–366 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · ATL
23/38, 306 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-1.2 expected points added · -2.9% completion over expected
Passing · NO
16/25, 269 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
6.2 expected points added · +5.7% completion over expected
Receiving · NO
3/3 for 109 yds, 2 TD
14% of team targets · 11.1 expected points added
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | ATL 26 | 8 | 17 | 1:58 | Punt | |
| 2 | NO | NO 12 | 13 | 98 | 6:07 | Turnover on downs | |
| 3 | ATL | ATL 5 | 4 | 9 | 1:22 | Punt | |
| 4 | NO | NO 44 | 11 | 46 | 5:43 | Field goal +3 | |
| 5 | ATL | ATL 30 | 7 | 22 | 2:44 | Missed field goal | |
| 6 | NO | NO 43 | 5 | 52 | 1:18 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 7 | ATL | ATL 27 | 11 | 73 | 5:03 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 8 | NO | NO 30 | 6 | 70 | 1:58 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 9 | ATL | ATL 31 | 12 | 53 | 3:32 | Missed field goal | |
| 10 | NO | NO 25 | 1 | 0 | 0:15 | End of half | |
| 11 | NO | NO 28 | 5 | 6 | 1:20 | Punt | |
| 12 | ATL | ATL 24 | 13 | 92 | 7:58 | Field goal +3 | |
| 13 | NO | NO 31 | 7 | 61 | 2:58 | Field goal +3 | |
| 14 | ATL | ATL 37 | 6 | 63 | 1:43 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 15 | NO | NO 30 | 5 | 5 | 1:12 | Punt | |
| 16 | ATL | ATL 19 | 4 | 4 | 0:58 | Punt | |
| 17 | NO | NO 38 | 4 | 9 | 2:09 | Punt | |
| 18 | ATL | ATL 10 | 10 | 51 | 5:03 | Missed field goal | |
| 19 | NO | NO 36 | 4 | 13 | 1:29 | Punt | |
| 20 | ATL | ATL 19 | 6 | 37 | 3:11 | Interception | |
| 21 | NO | NO 38 | 4 | 6 | 0:24 | Punt | |
| 22 | ATL | ATL 14 | 6 | 47 | 1:35 | Turnover on downs |
7 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 98 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a turnover on downs.
Full stat lines
Box score
Atlanta Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 23/38 | 306 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1.2 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 20 | 116 | 5.8 | 2 | 5.7 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 11 | 59 | 5.4 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 0.5 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 8 | 13 | 97 | 0 | 35% | -1.4 |
| Darnell Mooney | 5 | 9 | 96 | 0 | 24% | 1.5 |
| Kyle Pitts | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 | 16% | 2.9 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 11% | 1.6 |
| Bijan Robinson | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 11% | -0.1 |
| Charlie Woerner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaden Elliss | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Landman | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Clark Phillips | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jessie Bates | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Simmons | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| David Onyemata | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalid Kareem | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Malone | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eddie Goldman | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drake London | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
New Orleans Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 16/25 | 269 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 17 | 55 | 3.2 | 0 | -2.1 |
| Derek Carr | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 | -1.8 |
| Taysom Hill | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 | -2.6 |
| Jordan Mims | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | 0.5 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 3 | 109 | 2 | 14% | 11.1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 29% | -0.2 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 | 10% | 1.1 |
| Kevin Austin | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 | 10% | 4.1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 14% | -1.0 |
| Dante Pettis | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 5% | 0.2 |
| Jordan Mims | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10% | -1.9 |
| Foster Moreau | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10% | -2.1 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demario Davis | 2 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alontae Taylor | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Harris | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shemar Jean-Charles | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ugochukwu Amadi | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pete Werner | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Khalen Saunders | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Willie Gay | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Payton Turner | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cameron Jordan | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- ATL -3.5
- Closing total
- 46.5
- ATL moneyline
- -192
- NO moneyline
- +160
Falcons closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 37 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Mercedes-Benz Superdome
- Roof / surface
- dome · sportturf
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Carl Cheffers
- Rest
- ATL 7 days · NO 7 days
- Coaches
- Raheem Morris vs Dennis Allen
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.