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Atlanta Falcons 17 at New Orleans Saints 20. Final.
Falcons -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2024 Week 10
New Orleans Saints 20, Falcons 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:07, 2nd and 8, on Tyrann Mathieu — 32.4 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:07 · 2nd and 8
Tyrann Mathieu
Saints
(2:07) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu [93-N.Shepherd] at NO 32. 32-T.Mathieu to NO 38 for 6 yards (5-D.London).
U 46.5 ✓
Dome
Falcons closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New Orleans Saints 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:07, Saints +32.4% win probability on one snap.
32.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Younghoe KooSaintsQ4 6:43(6:43) 6-Y.Koo 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
22.0pts
Kirk CousinsSaintsQ4 0:41(:41) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins sacked at ATL 42 for -9 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young) [99-C.Young], touched at ATL 42, recovered by ATL-70-Ja.Matthews at ATL 32.
20.2pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — +0.21 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.24 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Saints won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 1 giveaway.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.22 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.03 expected points per dropback.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Falcons164 of 173 plays carry both curves
(2:07) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu [93-N.Shepherd] at NO 32. 32-T.Mathieu to NO 38 for 6 yards (5-D.London).
Swing +32.4 for SaintsExpected points +4.13 for SaintsThe model had Saints 5 points higher than the market did.play 157
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:07ATL +32% win prob(2:07) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu [93-N.Shepherd] at NO 32. 32-T.Mathieu to NO 38 for 6 yards (5-D.London).
4th · 6:43ATL +22% win prob(6:43) 6-Y.Koo 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
4th · 0:41ATL +20% win prob(:41) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins sacked at ATL 42 for -9 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young) [99-C.Young], touched at ATL 42, recovered by ATL-70-Ja.Matthews at ATL 32.
2nd · 10:57NO +14% win prob(10:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 10-M.Valdes-Scantling for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:07ATL +13% win prob(:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 34-R.McCloud pushed ob at NO 44 for -1 yards (0-U.Amadi).
2nd · 5:45NO +13% win prob(5:45) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 10-M.Valdes-Scantling pushed ob at ATL 3 for 67 yards (22-C.Phillips) [90-D.Onyemata].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Blake Grupe's 38-yard field goal with 14:55 left in the 2nd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd14:55Blake Grupe·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder M.Hayball · snap Z.WoodLead never changed again+30–3
Saints ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Falcons: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.00Saints: +0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.03Falcons: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.22Saints: +0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.21Falcons: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.24Saints: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 73 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Saints’s 51 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 4, Saints 5.
NoteFalcons outgained Saints 468-366 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 10Against their seasonTendencies
NO's sack or hit rate, 22.0%, is past their previous high of 15.8% in week 8 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 13 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.8 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Saints22.0%
leaned — got home · +9.9 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+1.40× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteNO's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 22.0%, 9.9 points above their season mean of 12.0% and 1.4 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass−32% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:07) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu [93-N.Shepherd] at NO 32. 32-T.Mathieu to NO 38 for 6 yards (5-D.London).
Q4 2:07 · Falcons · 2nd & 8 at NO 44 · gained nothing · -4.13 EP · −31.5% win probability
162 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 83 yards from the NO 12 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
46%
Yards
833
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR72+0.0657%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.2477%
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11-0.3064%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.1713%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR8+0.6550%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.1929%
Saints2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Saints0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 26 to the Falcons 43
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Saints 12 to the Falcons 6
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 5 to the Falcons 14
The period ended13 plays, from the Saints 44 to the Falcons 20
2nd quarter48 plays
Falcons0Saints3
Field goal2 plays
No good8 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Saints 35
Falcons0Saints9
Falcons0Saints10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Saints 43 to the Falcons 40
Falcons6Saints10
Falcons7Saints10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Falcons 27 to the Saints 1
Falcons7Saints16
Falcons7Saints17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Falcons 1
The period ended14 plays, from the Falcons 31 to the Saints 11
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 28 to the Saints 34
Falcons10Saints17
Field goal16 plays, from the Falcons 24 to the Saints 8
Falcons10Saints20
Field goal7 plays, from the Saints 31 to the Falcons 8
Falcons16Saints20
Falcons17Saints20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Falcons 37 to the Saints 37
The period ended4 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 35
4th quarter47 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 19 to the Falcons 23
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 38 to the Saints 47
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
No good12 plays, from the Falcons 10 to the Saints 28
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 36 to the Saints 38
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Falcons 19 to the Saints 44
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 38 to the Saints 44
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Falcons 14 to the Saints 43
2nd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
