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2024 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 10, 2024 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

30

Indianapolis Colts

20

BUF -4.5 ✓O 46.5 ✓Dome

Buffalo Bills 30–20. Biggest swing: Q1 12:24, BUF +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3IND ↑BUF ↓
Q1 · 12:24BUF 6 — IND 0IND ball · 1st & 10BUF 65%

(12:24) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left intended for 1-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 7-Ta.Johnson at IND 23. 7-Ta.Johnson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 12:24BUF +15% win prob(12:24) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left intended for 1-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 7-Ta.Johnson at IND 23. 7-Ta.Johnson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q3 · 5:36BUF +11% win prob(5:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 1-C.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at IND 48. 23-K.Moore to BUF 40 for 12 yards (1-C.Samuel).
  3. Q2 · 9:26IND +11% win prob(9:26) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 31-T.Goodson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q3 · 5:43BUF +10% win prob(5:43) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco sacked at BUF 47 for -9 yards (50-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (50-G.Rousseau), RECOVERED by BUF-3-D.Hamlin at BUF 49.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:24BUF Touchdown

    (12:24) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left intended for 1-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 7-Ta.Johnson at IND 23. 7-Ta.Johnson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 7 — IND 0
  2. Q1 · 5:36BUF Field goal

    (5:36) 2-T.Bass 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: BUF 10 — IND 0
  3. Q1 · 3:34IND Field goal

    (3:34) 7-M.Gay 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: BUF 10 — IND 3
  4. Q2 · 9:26IND Touchdown

    (9:26) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 31-T.Goodson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 10 — IND 10
  5. Q2 · 6:35IND Field goal

    (6:35) 7-M.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: BUF 10 — IND 13
  6. Q2 · 2:21BUF Touchdown

    (2:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen left guard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BUF-79-S.Brown, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 17 — IND 13
  7. Q2 · 0:02BUF Field goal

    (:02) 2-T.Bass 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: BUF 20 — IND 13
  8. Q4 · 11:01BUF Field goal

    (11:01) 2-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: BUF 23 — IND 13
  9. Q4 · 3:09BUF Touchdown

    (3:09) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 30 — IND 13
  10. Q4 · 0:08IND Touchdown

    (:08) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 14-A.Pierce for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 30 — IND 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBillsColts
Offensive plays6961
Total yards416 (edge)361
Yards per play6.0 (edge)5.9
Expected points added / play0.02 (edge)-0.25
Success rate46% (edge)41%
Dropback rate59%64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.11 (edge)-0.32
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.22 (edge)-0.13
Third downs7/14 (edge)4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps20 (edge)18
Sacks taken2 (edge)4
Turnovers2 (edge)4

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.25.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

22/37, 280 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-6.5 expected points added · -8.7% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Joe FlaccoQB

26/35, 272 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

-12.5 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

21 att, 114 yds, 0 TD

-3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

19 att, 80 yds, 1 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Mack HollinsWR

4/4 for 86 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Alec PierceWR

4/7 for 81 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BUFBUF 226212:36Punt
2INDIND 9100:10Defensive touchdown
3INDIND 308313:08Interception
4BUFBUF 479423:33Field goal +3
5INDIND 307612:02Field goal +3
6BUFBUF 309423:23Turnover on downs
7INDIND 2812675:46Touchdown +7
8BUFBUF 30200:10Interception
9INDBUF 335332:40Field goal +3
10BUFBUF 3010754:18Touchdown +7
11INDIND 30591:04Punt
12BUFBUF 118651:10Field goal +3
13INDIND 30522:12Punt
14BUFBUF 238133:20Punt
15INDIND 37483:52Fumble
16BUFBUF 49100:07Interception
17INDBUF 407102:44Turnover on downs
18BUFBUF 3013606:47Field goal +3
19INDIND 304251:12Interception
20BUFBUF 1614986:42Touchdown +7
21INDIND 3012753:02Touchdown +7
22BUFBUF 30200:02End of game

9 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 98 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Josh Allen22/37280022-6.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Cook19804.210.8
Josh Allen8506.317.8
Ray Davis362.00-0.7
Mitchell Trubisky1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mack Hollins4486011%6.5
Khalil Shakir6958026%-2.2
Dawson Knox234009%2.1
Curtis Samuel4835023%-9.4
Ty Johnson333209%2.2
Dalton Kincaid2524014%-0.9
James Cook13509%-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Terrel Bernard450.001
Dorian Williams430.000
Taylor Rapp420.011
Cameron Lewis410.000
Rasul Douglas320.000
Damar Hamlin220.000
Gregory Rousseau311.000
Christian Benford310.000
Taron Johnson301.012
A.J. Epenesa121.000

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Flacco26/35272234-12.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor211145.40-3.2
Ashton Dulin177.000.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Alec Pierce4781120%4.5
Josh Downs71072029%-6.5
Adonai Mitchell6671017%7.7
Kylen Granson221506%1.2
Will Mallory111003%0.2
Tyler Goodson23919%1.8
Jonathan Taylor248011%-7.3
Trey Sermon11403%-0.7
Andrew Ogletree11203%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nick Cross650.000
Zaire Franklin450.001
Grover Stewart441.000
Kenny Moore530.012
DeForest Buckner250.000
E.J. Speed420.012
Jaylon Jones410.000
Julian Blackmon220.000
Kwity Paye201.000
Samuel Womack110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BUF -4.5
Closing total
46.5
BUF moneyline
-230
IND moneyline
+190

Bills closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 50 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
BUF 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Shane Steichen