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2024 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 10, 2024 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
BillsBuffalo30
BY 10final margin
ColtsIndianapolis20
Buffalo Bills 30 at Indianapolis Colts 20. Final.
Bills -4.5 ✓O 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 10
Buffalo Bills 30, Colts 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 12:24, 1st and 10, on Taron Johnson — 15.3 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:24 · 1st and 10
Taron Johnson
Bills
(12:24) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left intended for 1-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 7-Ta.Johnson at IND 23. 7-Ta.Johnson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Bills closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Buffalo Bills 30–20. Biggest swing: Q1 12:24, Bills +15.3% win probability on one snap.
15.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tyler GoodsonColtsQ2 9:26(9:26) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 31-T.Goodson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.0pts
Kenny MooreColtsQ3 5:36(5:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 1-C.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at IND 48. 23-K.Moore to BUF 40 for 12 yards (1-C.Samuel).
11.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bills won this one — 2 giveaways, against Colts at 4 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bills won this one — +0.22 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.13 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.02 expected points per snap, against Colts at -0.25 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Colts at 4 of 11 on third down.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Bills171 of 183 plays carry both curves
(12:24) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left intended for 1-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 7-Ta.Johnson at IND 23. 7-Ta.Johnson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −15.3 for ColtsExpected points −7.44 for ColtsThe model had Colts 25 points higher than the market did.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:24BUF +15% win prob(12:24) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left intended for 1-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 7-Ta.Johnson at IND 23. 7-Ta.Johnson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 5:36BUF +11% win prob(5:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 1-C.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at IND 48. 23-K.Moore to BUF 40 for 12 yards (1-C.Samuel).
2nd · 9:26IND +11% win prob(9:26) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 31-T.Goodson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 5:43BUF +10% win prob(5:43) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco sacked at BUF 47 for -9 yards (50-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (50-G.Rousseau), RECOVERED by BUF-3-D.Hamlin at BUF 49.
2nd · 3:02IND +10% win prob(3:02) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 88-D.Knox to IND 13 for 34 yards (40-J.Jones).
2nd · 5:41IND +9% win prob(5:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-M.Hollins to BUF 40 for 16 yards (45-E.Speed).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Allen's 13-yard rushing touchdown with 2:21 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
4th0:08Alec Pierce·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco+730–20
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryColts
Bills8–0Colts
416Total yards361
6.0Yards per play5.9
46%Success rate41%
50%Third-down rate36%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays6
20First downs18
2Sacks taken4
2Turnovers4
The read
Bills ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Bills: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.25Colts: −0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.11Bills: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.32Colts: −0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.22Bills: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.13Colts: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 69 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Colts’s 61 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Bills 4, Colts 5.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 10Against their seasonFourth Down
BUF's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 1 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 10.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.5 points.
BUF's sack or hit rate turned over: 6.7% in week 9 against 17.9% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 19 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.1 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Colts12.2%
right on their number · −0.2 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteBUF's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 33.3 points above their season mean of 41.7% and 1.4 times their own 24.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 6 inactive
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%74 snaps
66Connor McGovernC · Every snap100%74 snaps
64O'Cyrus TorrenceG · Every snap99%73 snaps
76David EdwardsG · Every snap99%73 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap99%73 snaps
79Spencer BrownT · Full-time89%66 snaps
1Curtis SamuelWR · Full-time89%66 snaps
13Mack HollinsWR · Full-time88%65 snaps
10Khalil ShakirWR · Heavy rotation72%53 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Heavy rotation70%52 snaps
4James CookRB · Heavy rotation55%41 snaps
85Quintin MorrisTE · Rotational35%26 snaps
26Ty JohnsonRB · Rotational30%22 snaps
86Dalton KincaidTE · Situational24%18 snaps
22Ray DavisRB · Situational15%11 snaps
74Ryan Van DemarkT · Situational12%9 snaps
70Alec AndersonG · Situational8%6 snaps
80Tyrell ShaversWR · Situational8%6 snaps
89Jalen VirgilWR · Situational5%4 snaps
62Sedrick Van Pran-GrangerC · Situational1%1 snap
11Mitchell TrubiskyQB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Will ClappCReggie GilliamFBEdefuan UlofoshioMLBKeon ColemanWRKJ HamlerWRAmari CooperWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Flacco pass−21% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:24) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left intended for 1-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 7-Ta.Johnson at IND 23. 7-Ta.Johnson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 12:24 · Colts · 1st & 10 at IND 9 · gained nothing · -7.44 EP · −21.0% win probability
169 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 178. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 92 yards from the BUF 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
45%
Yards
776
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.2762%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.1668%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.2045%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.5753%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 22 to the Bills 43
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Bills6Colts0
Touchdown1 play
Bills7Colts0
How the play was built
A screen, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Bills 37
Bills10Colts0
Field goal9 plays, from the Bills 47 to the Colts 11
Bills10Colts3
Field goal7 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Bills 9
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Colts 28
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
Bills10Colts9
Bills10Colts10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Bills 2
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Bills10Colts13
Field goal6 plays, from the Bills 33 to the Bills 5
Bills16Colts13
Bills17Colts13
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Colts 13
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 39
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.7 seconds
Bills20Colts13
Field goal10 plays, from the Bills 11 to the Colts 29
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 32
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Bills 36
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Colts 3 to the Bills 38
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Bills 40 to the Bills 20
The period ended6 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Colts 43
4th quarter53 plays
Bills23Colts13
Field goal9 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Colts 10
Intercepted4 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Bills 45
Bills29Colts13
Bills30Colts13
Touchdown21 plays, from the Bills 16 to the Colts 2
Bills30Colts19
Bills30Colts20
Touchdown16 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Bills 10
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -4.5
Closing total
46.5
Bills moneyline
-230
Colts moneyline
+190
Bills closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 50 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Bills 7 days · Colts 7 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Shane Steichen
1st · 9:14
BUF +9% win prob
(9:14) 15-J.Flacco pass short right intended for 28-J.Taylor INTERCEPTED by 98-A.Johnson at BUF 43. 98-A.Johnson to BUF 47 for 4 yards (28-J.Taylor).
2nd · 9:22BUF +8% win prob(9:22) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 10-K.Shakir INTERCEPTED by 45-E.Speed at BUF 45. 45-E.Speed to BUF 33 for 12 yards (13-M.Hollins).
