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2024 Week 10 · Thu, Nov 7, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium

Cincinnati Bengals

34

Baltimore RavensWinner

35

BAL -6 no coverO 53 ✓

Baltimore Ravens 35–34 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 13:44, BAL +28% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BAL ↑CIN ↓
Q4 · 13:44CIN 21 — BAL 20BAL ball · 3rd & 2CIN 74%

(13:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 16-T.Wallace for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 13:44BAL +28% win prob(13:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 16-T.Wallace for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 5:50BAL +22% win prob(5:50) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 1-J.Chase for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 0:38CIN +18% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-J.Burrow pass to 87-T.Hudson is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
  4. Q4 · 5:56BAL +15% win prob(5:56) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:27CIN Touchdown

    (9:27) 94-S.Hubbard and 62-M.Lee reported in as eligible. 30-C.Brown right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 7 — BAL 0
  2. Q2 · 13:08BAL Touchdown

    (13:08) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 15-N.Agholor for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 7 — BAL 7
  3. Q2 · 0:36CIN Touchdown

    (:36) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 87-T.Hudson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 14 — BAL 7
  4. Q3 · 13:21CIN Touchdown

    (13:21) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 1-J.Chase for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 21 — BAL 7
  5. Q3 · 4:17BAL Touchdown

    (4:17) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 21 — BAL 14
  6. Q4 · 13:44BAL Touchdown

    (13:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 16-T.Wallace for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: CIN 21 — BAL 20
  7. Q4 · 5:56BAL Touchdown

    (5:56) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: CIN 21 — BAL 28
  8. Q4 · 5:50CIN Touchdown

    (5:50) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 1-J.Chase for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 28 — BAL 28
  9. Q4 · 1:56BAL Touchdown

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 7-R.Bateman for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 28 — BAL 35
  10. Q4 · 0:42CIN Touchdown

    (:42) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: CIN 34 — BAL 35

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBengalsRavens
Offensive plays7658
Total yards470 (edge)392
Yards per play6.26.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.100.32 (edge)
Success rate45%50% (edge)
Dropback rate80%62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.200.59 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.30-0.12 (edge)
Third downs8/167/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)44
First downs gained on snaps24 (edge)20
Sacks taken30 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Bengals outgained Ravens 470–392 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

34/56, 428 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

12.2 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

25/33, 290 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

19.7 expected points added · +12.5% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

16 att, 68 yds, 1 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Chase BrownRB

13 att, 42 yds, 1 TD

-5.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

11/17 for 264 yds, 3 TD

31% of team targets · 20.4 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Tylan WallaceWR

3/3 for 115 yds, 1 TD

9% of team targets · 8.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CINCIN 3014695:37Touchdown +7
2BALBAL 30561:29Punt
3CINCIN 1011464:58Turnover on downs
4BALBAL 4110594:52Touchdown +7
5CINCIN 30591:36Punt
6BALBAL 16492:14Punt
7CINCIN 30843:42Punt
8BALBAL 20451:30Punt
9CINCIN 2711683:32Touchdown +7
10BALBAL 305230:30End of half
11BALBAL 305121:39Punt
12CINCIN 332670:12Touchdown +7
13BALBAL 288134:11Punt
14CINCIN 85222:00Fumble
15BALCIN 316312:46Touchdown +7
16CINCIN 1910414:28Punt
17BALBAL 84921:14Touchdown +6
18CINCIN 309364:06Turnover on downs
19BALBAL 358673:34Touchdown +8
20CINCIN 303700:13Touchdown +7
21BALBAL 3013753:48Touchdown +7
22CINCIN 3011381:11Touchdown +6
23BALCIN 42200:38End of game

10 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 92 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Burrow34/5642840312.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chase Brown13423.21-5.5
Joe Burrow263.00-0.9
Tanner Hudson111.001.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ja'Marr Chase1117264331%20.4
Chase Brown91152020%0.8
Tanner Hudson6742113%2.7
Mike Gesicki4930017%-2.7
Andrei Iosivas242907%2.2
Jermaine Burton151109%-4.8
Cam Grandy11002%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Logan Wilson530.000
Germaine Pratt520.000
Jordan Battle420.000
Mike Hilton140.000
Cam Taylor-Britt400.002
B.J. Hill310.000
Geno Stone210.000
Joseph Ossai120.000
D.J. Turner120.001
Akeem Davis-Gaither110.001

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson25/3329040019.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Derrick Henry16684.31-1.2
Lamar Jackson7334.701.0
Justice Hill2-2-1.00-2.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tylan Wallace3311519%8.4
Mark Andrews6768122%6.0
Rashod Bateman6854125%6.5
Zay Flowers4634019%-0.2
Nelson Agholor12616%1.3
Diontae Johnson12606%-1.3
Charlie Kolar11403%-0.1
Derrick Henry11303%-0.2
Justice Hill22006%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Roquan Smith660.000
Trenton Simpson430.000
Nnamdi Madubuike323.000
Brandon Stephens410.001
Marlon Humphrey500.001
Kyle Hamilton220.002
Ar'Darius Washington300.002
Marcus Williams210.000
Kristian Welch110.000
Odafe Oweh110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -6
Closing total
53
CIN moneyline
+220
BAL moneyline
-270

Ravens closed -6, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 53; the game landed 69 — over by 16.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
69°F, wind 6 mph
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
CIN 4 days · BAL 4 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs John Harbaugh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.