For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Bengals177 of 190 plays carry both curves
(13:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 16-T.Wallace for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +28.5 for RavensExpected points +7.06 for RavensThe model had Bengals 8 points higher than the market did.play 134
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 13:44BAL +28% win prob(13:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 16-T.Wallace for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:50BAL +22% win prob(5:50) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 1-J.Chase for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:38CIN +18% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-J.Burrow pass to 87-T.Hudson is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
4th · 5:56BAL +15% win prob(5:56) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 13:21BAL +13% win prob(13:21) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 1-J.Chase for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 9:29CIN +11% win prob(9:29) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep left to 81-J.Burton.
3rd · 7:05CIN +11% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rashod Bateman's 5-yard touchdown catch with 1:56 left in the 4th put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
4th0:42Ja'Marr Chase·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow · two-point no good+634–35
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryRavens
Bengals2–6Ravens
470Total yards392
6.2Yards per play6.8
45%Success rate50%
50%Third-down rate58%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
4Explosive plays4
24First downs20
3Sacks taken0
1Turnovers0
The read
Ravens ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Bengals: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.32Ravens: +0.32 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.20Bengals: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.59Ravens: +0.59 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.30Bengals: −0.30 expected points added per play
−0.12Ravens: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 76 snaps at a 80% dropback rate against Ravens’s 58 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 5, Ravens 5.
NoteBengals outgained Ravens 470-392 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CIN's sack or hit rate, 2.8%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 0.9 points clear of the next team along.
A 3.8-swing turn from week 9.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CIN's early-down pass rate, 74.5%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 4.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 69.4% in week 1.
A 3.2-swing turn from week 9.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
CIN's pass rate over expected, +14.4 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 4.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +10.5 pts in week 6.
75 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
high through week 10Against their seasonFourth Down
CIN's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 10.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 26 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.5 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.56× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Ravens21.3%
inside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 61 dropbacks
NoteCIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.8%, 12.5 points below their season mean of 15.3% and 1.6 times their own 8.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass+34% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 16-T.Wallace for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 13:44 · Ravens · 3rd & 2 at BAL 16 · gained 84 · +7.06 EP · +34.2% win probability
175 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 190 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 185. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 92 yards from the BAL 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
190 of 190 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
190
EPA per play
+0.17
Success rate
49%
Yards
861
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.0581%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR30+0.2377%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24+0.4575%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.1956%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.4336%
Bengals0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR5+0.56100%
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Bengals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
190 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
190 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, three tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.9 seconds
Bengals6Ravens0
Bengals7Ravens0
Touchdown16 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Ravens 1
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Ravens 36
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Bengals 10 to the Ravens 41
The period ended8 plays, from the Ravens 41 to the Bengals 29
2nd quarter48 plays
Bengals7Ravens6
Bengals7Ravens7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 18 to the Bengals 6
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 38
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Ravens 20
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 40
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 25
Bengals13Ravens7
Bengals14Ravens7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bengals 27 to the Ravens 3
The period ended6 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Ravens 47
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Ravens 32
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Bengals20Ravens7
Bengals21Ravens7
Touchdown2 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Ravens 28 to the Ravens 43
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Bengals 8 to the Bengals 27
Bengals21Ravens13
Bengals21Ravens14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bengals 31 to the Bengals 1
The period ended8 plays, from the Bengals 19 to the Ravens 34
4th quarter62 plays
Punt3 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Bengals21Ravens20
Touchdown4 plays, from the Ravens 8 to the Ravens 16
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Ravens 34
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Bengals21Ravens26
Bengals21Ravens28
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Bengals 16
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Bengals27Ravens28
Bengals28Ravens28
Touchdown3 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.2 seconds
Bengals28Ravens34
Bengals28Ravens35
Touchdown17 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Bengals 5
Bengals34Ravens35
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, three tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Ravens 5
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -6
Closing total
53
Bengals moneyline
+220
Ravens moneyline
-270
Ravens closed -6, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 53; the game landed 69 — over by 16.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 62°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Bengals 4 days · Ravens 4 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs John Harbaugh
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(7:05) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown left guard to CIN 31 for 4 yards (44-M.Humphrey). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), touched at CIN 30, RECOVERED by BAL-0-R.Smith at CIN 31.
2nd · 1:17BAL +11% win prob(1:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown pushed ob at BAL 19 for 17 yards (0-R.Smith). BAL-14-K.Hamilton was injured during the play.
