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2024 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 10, 2024 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Denver Broncos

14

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

16

KC -7.5 no coverU 42.5 ✓

Kansas City Chiefs 16–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, DEN +51% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3KC ↑DEN ↓
Q4 · 0:01DEN 14 — KC 16DEN ball · 4th & 10DEN 51%

(:01) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (54-L.Chenal), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon, RECOVERED by KC-2-J.Williams at KC 24.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:01DEN +51% win prob(:01) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (54-L.Chenal), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon, RECOVERED by KC-2-J.Williams at KC 24.
  2. Q4 · 1:53KC +22% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to KC 17 for 13 yards (22-T.McDuffie).
  3. Q4 · 10:02KC +16% win prob(10:02) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 8-D.Hopkins to DEN 18 for 31 yards (21-R.Moss).
  4. Q4 · 0:20DEN +14% win prob(:20) 10-B.Nix right end to KC 17 for -3 yards.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 14:23DEN Touchdown

    (14:23) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 17-D.Vele for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — KC 0
  2. Q2 · 9:06KC Field goal

    (9:06) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — KC 3
  3. Q2 · 6:45DEN Touchdown

    (6:45) 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 14 — KC 3
  4. Q2 · 1:47KC Touchdown

    (1:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 14 — KC 10
  5. Q3 · 3:54KC Field goal

    (3:54) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: DEN 14 — KC 13
  6. Q4 · 5:59KC Field goal

    (5:59) 7-H.Butker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: DEN 14 — KC 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBroncosChiefs
Offensive plays5565
Total yards260300 (edge)
Yards per play4.7 (edge)4.6
Expected points added / play0.07 (edge)0.00
Success rate42% (edge)35%
Dropback rate60%75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.21 (edge)0.11
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.13 (edge)-0.32
Third downs7/13 (edge)7/16
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)56 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1617 (edge)
Sacks taken2 (edge)4
Turnovers00

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

28/42, 266 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

3.9 expected points added · +2.3% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

22/30, 215 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.7 expected points added · +12.6% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Audric EstimeRB

14 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Kareem HuntRB

14 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

6/9 for 70 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Kareem HuntRB

7/10 for 65 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DENDEN 30511:23Punt
2KCKC 2110295:03Punt
3DENDEN 20632:39Punt
4KCKC 40471:55Punt
5DENDEN 2010854:40Touchdown +7
6KCKC 3011575:18Field goal +3
7DENDEN 307702:23Touchdown +7
8KCKC 3013654:55Touchdown +7
9DENDEN 309331:44Missed field goal
10KCKC 275-61:41Punt
11DENDEN 434122:12Punt
12KCKC 2516657:16Field goal +3
13DENDEN 3010104:00Punt
14KCKC 67392:30Punt
15DENDEN 9431:41Punt
16KCDEN 4610444:43Field goal +3
17DENDEN 4014435:57Missed field goal

6 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 85 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bo Nix22/302152027.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Audric Estime14533.80-1.0
Marvin Mims3175.70-0.4
Jaleel McLaughlin2126.000.6
Javonte Williams111.00-0.5
Bo Nix3-5-1.70-2.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Courtland Sutton6970132%5.9
Devaughn Vele4439114%5.7
Adam Trautman113404%3.1
Lil'Jordan Humphrey2323011%0.8
Lucas Krull222107%2.2
Marvin Mims4413014%-2.4
Troy Franklin139011%-1.7
Javonte Williams22607%-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Brandon Jones720.000
Cody Barton270.000
P.J. Locke430.000
Jonathon Cooper331.000
Riley Moss420.000
Patrick Surtain500.000
Zach Allen131.001
Nik Bonitto301.000
Ja'Quan McMillian210.000
John Franklin-Myers211.000

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes28/422661043.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kareem Hunt14352.50-3.3
Patrick Mahomes3196.301.5
Carson Steele231.50-1.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Kareem Hunt71065025%2.0
Travis Kelce81264130%5.2
DeAndre Hopkins4556013%3.2
Samaje Perine223705%2.2
Noah Gray221805%2.1
Xavier Worthy1411010%-1.0
Peyton Hendershot11603%0.3
Justin Watson22605%-0.7
Mecole Hardman11303%-0.3
Justyn Ross01003%-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nazeeh Johnson641.000
Nick Bolton421.000
Trent McDuffie510.000
Justin Reid240.000
Chamarri Conner410.000
Bryan Cook220.000
Drue Tranquill220.000
Michael Danna110.000
Felix Anudike-Uzomah200.000
Jaden Hicks200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -7.5
Closing total
42.5
DEN moneyline
+300
KC moneyline
-380

Chiefs closed -7.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 30 — under by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
57°F, wind 12 mph
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
DEN 7 days · KC 6 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Andy Reid

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.