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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 10, 2024 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 10
It turned at Q4 0:01, 4th and 10, on Wil Lutz — 51.4 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Kansas City Chiefs 16–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, Chiefs +51.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:01 · 4th and 10
Wil Lutz
Chiefs
(:01) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (54-L.Chenal), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon, RECOVERED by KC-2-J.Williams at KC 24.
51.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — -0.13 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.32 expected points per carry.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 13 on third down, against Chiefs at 7 of 16 on third down.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Broncos at 5 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 13.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
(:01) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (54-L.Chenal), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon, RECOVERED by KC-2-J.Williams at KC 24.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Harrison Butker's 20-yard field goal with 5:59 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Harrison Butker20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+314–166 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categoryChiefs
Broncos ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 55 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 65 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 3, Chiefs 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
KC's early-down pass rate, 68.1%, is past their previous high of 58.2% in week 3 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos-3.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.0 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 55 snaps
Chiefs10.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 5.0 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 36% to 81%
Tendencies room →Broncos52.4%right on their number · −3.4 vs their 55.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 42 early downs
Chiefs68.1%leaned — passed early · +9.7 vs their 58.4%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+1.10× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 54%
Tendencies room →Broncos18.2%inside their normal wobble · −8.8 vs their 27.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Chiefs24.5%inside their normal wobble · +3.2 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -56% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Broncos—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 28.8%.
Chiefs50.0%inside their normal wobble · +20.2 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±24.4 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 73%
Tendencies room →Broncos36.7%right on their number · +2.8 vs their 33.9%, and they swing ±15.4 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Chiefs27.3%inside their normal wobble · −8.6 vs their 35.8%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 43%
Tendencies room →Broncos18.4%right on their number · −1.0 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Chiefs15.2%right on their number · −2.6 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
KC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 68.1%, 9.7 points above their season mean of 58.4% and 1.1 times their own 8.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
28/42, 266 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
3.9 expected points added · +2.3% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
Bo NixQB
22/30, 215 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
7.7 expected points added · +12.6% completion over expected
Receiving · DEN
6/9 for 70 yds, 1 TD
32% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Devaughn Vele banked 6.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis KelceTE · Alpha Receiver | 20.4 | −2.4 | 84% | 88% | 30% | 45% | 8/12, 64 yd, 1 TD |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.0 | +5.0 | 93% | 97% | 32% | 44% | 6/9, 70 yd, 1 TD |
| Kareem HuntRB · Bell Cow Back | 17.0 | −9.5 | 65% | 59% | 25% | 0% | 14 car, 35 yd · 7/10, 65 yd |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 16.5 | −8.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/42, 266 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 19 yd |
| Bo NixQB · Starter QB | 16.1 | +4.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/30, 215 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, -5 yd |
| Devaughn VeleWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.9 | +6.1 | 66% | 82% | 14% | 10% | 4/4, 39 yd, 1 TD |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.6 | +0.3 | 65% | 61% | 13% | 21% | 4/5, 56 yd |
| Marvin MimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.0 | 0.0 | 22% | 21% | 14% | 0% | 3 car, 17 yd · 4/4, 13 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB | 5.7 | +3.1 | 24% | 31% | 5% | 5% | 2/2, 37 yd |
| Audric EstimeRB · Committee Back | 5.3 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | +3.0 | 59% | 48% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 34 yd |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | +0.3 | 59% | 48% | 11% | 9% | 2/3, 23 yd |
| Lucas KrullTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | +1.3 | 21% | 30% | 7% | 7% | 2/2, 21 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | +1.3 | 57% | 55% | 5% | 0% | 2/2, 18 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB | 2.7 | −0.6 | 29% | 45% | 7% | 0% | 1 car, 1 yd · 2/2, 6 yd |
| Justin WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −0.2 | 76% | 78% | 5% | 2% | 2/2, 6 yd |
| Xavier WorthyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −5.5 | 75% | 76% | 10% | 32% | 1/4, 11 yd |
| Troy FranklinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −1.8 | 34% | 52% | 11% | 34% | 1/3, 9 yd |
| Peyton HendershotTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Mecole HardmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.1 | 16% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 1.2 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Carson SteeleRB | 0.3 | −0.8 | 19% | 16% | 0% | — | 2 car, 3 yd |
| Justyn RossWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.3 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:01) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (54-L.Chenal), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon, RECOVERED by KC-2-J.Williams at KC 24.
Q4 0:01 · Broncos · 4th & 10 at KC 17 · gained nothing · -2.74 EP · −55.3% win probability
153 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 80 yards from the DEN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Broncos6
Chiefs0Broncos7Chiefs0Broncos7Chiefs3How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Broncos13Chiefs3Broncos14Chiefs3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Broncos14Chiefs9Broncos14Chiefs10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Broncos14Chiefs13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Broncos14Chiefs16How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Chiefs, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 22/30 | 215 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +7.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Audric Estime | 14 | 53 | 3.8 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Marvin Mims | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 6 | 9 | 70 | 1 | 32% | +5.9 |
| Devaughn Vele | 4 | 4 | 39 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jones | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Barton | 2 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| P.J. Locke |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 28/42 | 266 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +3.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_10_DEN_KC
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -7.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 30 — under by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| 12 |
| 6.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.6 |
| Javonte Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Bo Nix | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 | −2.3 |
| 14% |
| +5.7 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 | 4% | +3.1 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 11% | +0.8 |
| Lucas Krull | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 7% | +2.2 |
| Marvin Mims | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 14% | −2.4 |
| Troy Franklin | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 11% | −1.7 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7% | −1.0 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley Moss | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Surtain | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Allen | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nik Bonitto | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Quan McMillian | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Franklin-Myers | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 14 | 35 | 2.5 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Carson Steele | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 7 | 10 | 65 | 0 | 25% | +2.0 |
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 12 | 64 | 1 | 30% | +5.2 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 | 13% | +3.2 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 5% | +2.2 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 5% | +2.1 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 10% | −1.0 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 5% | −0.7 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Justyn Ross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazeeh Johnson | 6 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bolton | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent McDuffie | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Reid | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chamarri Conner | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Cook | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drue Tranquill | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Danna | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Felix Anudike-Uzomah | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaden Hicks | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
