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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Broncos155 of 169 plays carry both curves
(:01) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (54-L.Chenal), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon, RECOVERED by KC-2-J.Williams at KC 24.
Swing +51.4 for ChiefsExpected points +2.74 for ChiefsThe model had Broncos 4 points higher than the market did.play 167
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:01DEN +51% win prob(:01) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (54-L.Chenal), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon, RECOVERED by KC-2-J.Williams at KC 24.
4th · 1:53KC +22% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to KC 17 for 13 yards (22-T.McDuffie).
4th · 10:02KC +16% win prob(10:02) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 8-D.Hopkins to DEN 18 for 31 yards (21-R.Moss).
4th · 0:20DEN +14% win prob(:20) 10-B.Nix right end to KC 17 for -3 yards.
3rd · 0:13DEN +12% win prob(:13) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix sacked at DEN 40 for -16 yards (32-N.Bolton).
3rd · 8:28KC +12% win prob(8:28) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 34-S.Perine to DEN 32 for 35 yards (29-J.McMillian).
2nd · 1:47
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Harrison Butker's 20-yard field goal with 5:59 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd14:23Devaughn Vele·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+77–0
2nd9:06Harrison Butker·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+37–3
2nd6:45Courtland Sutton·32-yd TD catch32-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+714–3
2nd1:47Travis Kelce·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+714–10
3rd3:54Harrison Butker·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+314–13
4th5:59Harrison Butker·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+314–16
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryChiefs
Broncos4–3Chiefs
260Total yards300
4.7Yards per play4.6
42%Success rate35%
54%Third-down rate44%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays6
16First downs17
2Sacks taken4
0Turnovers0
The read
Broncos ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Broncos: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.00Chiefs: +0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Broncos: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.11Chiefs: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Broncos: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.32Chiefs: −0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 55 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 65 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 3, Chiefs 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 10Against their seasonTendencies
KC's early-down pass rate, 68.1%, is past their previous high of 58.2% in week 3 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · −1.0 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Chiefs15.2%
right on their number · −2.6 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteKC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 68.1%, 9.7 points above their season mean of 58.4% and 1.1 times their own 8.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
74Ben PowersG · Every snap100%58 snaps
69Mike McGlincheyT · Every snap100%58 snaps
77Quinn MeinerzG · Every snap100%58 snaps
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%58 snaps
60Luke WattenbergC · Every snap100%58 snaps
10Bo NixQB · Every snap100%58 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Full-time93%54 snaps
17Devaughn VeleWR · Heavy rotation66%38 snaps
82Adam TrautmanTE · Heavy rotation59%34 snaps
84Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Heavy rotation59%34 snaps
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Wil Lutz−55% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:01) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (54-L.Chenal), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon, RECOVERED by KC-2-J.Williams at KC 24.
Q4 0:01 · Broncos · 4th & 10 at KC 17 · gained nothing · -2.74 EP · −55.3% win probability
153 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 80 yards from the DEN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
40%
Yards
560
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.0668%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.1072%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.1678%
Broncos0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR6+0.2367%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.0517%
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.5360%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 34
Punt11 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Broncos 49
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 35
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 40 to the Chiefs 47
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Chiefs 11
2nd quarter52 plays
Broncos6Chiefs0
Broncos7Chiefs0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Chiefs 6
Broncos7Chiefs3
Field goal13 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Broncos 18
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Broncos13Chiefs3
Broncos14Chiefs3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Chiefs 32
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Broncos14Chiefs9
Broncos14Chiefs10
Touchdown16 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Broncos 2
The period ended12 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Chiefs 37
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 43 to the Broncos 46
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.8 seconds
Broncos14Chiefs13
Field goal16 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Broncos 10
The period ended10 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Chiefs 43
4th quarter44 plays
Punt1 play
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 6 to midfield
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 9 to the Broncos 17
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Broncos14Chiefs16
Field goal11 plays, from the Broncos 46 to the Broncos 2
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
The period ended18 plays, from the Broncos 40 to the Chiefs 14
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
