2024 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 10, 2024 · NRG Stadium
Detroit LionsWinner
26
Houston Texans
23
Detroit Lions 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:56, DET +25% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(1:56) 15-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 1:56DET +25% win prob(1:56) 15-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
- Q4 · 1:40HOU +17% win prob(1:40) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to HOU 37 for 11 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).
- Q4 · 0:04HOU +15% win prob(:04) 39-J.Bates 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
- Q4 · 5:06HOU +13% win prob(5:06) 39-J.Bates 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 7:50HOU Touchdown
(7:50) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 0 — HOU 7 - Q1 · 2:12HOU Field goal
(2:12) 15-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: DET 0 — HOU 10 - Q2 · 10:58DET Touchdown
(10:58) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 87-S.LaPorta for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 7 — HOU 10 - Q2 · 8:30HOU Field goal
(8:30) 15-K.Fairbairn 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: DET 7 — HOU 13 - Q2 · 4:10HOU Field goal
(4:10) 15-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: DET 7 — HOU 16 - Q2 · 0:16HOU Touchdown
(:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 8-J.Metchie for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 7 — HOU 23 - Q3 · 11:36DET Touchdown
(11:36) (Shotgun) 5-D.Montgomery left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: DET 13 — HOU 23 - Q4 · 11:43DET Touchdown
(11:43) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 20 — HOU 23 - Q4 · 5:06DET Field goal
(5:06) 39-J.Bates 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Score after this play: DET 23 — HOU 23 - Q4 · 0:04DET Field goal
(:04) 39-J.Bates 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Score after this play: DET 26 — HOU 23
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Lions | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 63 | 65 |
| Total yards | 345 (edge) | 248 |
| Yards per play | 5.5 (edge) | 3.8 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.12 (edge) | -0.23 |
| Success rate | 40% (edge) | 32% |
| Dropback rate | 49% | 58% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.04 (edge) | -0.16 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.19 (edge) | -0.32 |
| Third downs | 7/12 (edge) | 6/15 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 9 (edge) | 4 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 19 (edge) | 15 |
| Sacks taken | 0 (edge) | 4 |
| Turnovers | 5 | 2 (edge) |
Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · DET
15/30, 240 yds, 2 TD, 5 INT
-1.9 expected points added · -2.6% completion over expected
Passing · HOU
19/33, 232 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-5.9 expected points added · -8.8% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | DET 30 | 6 | 16 | 2:05 | Interception | |
| 2 | HOU | DET 33 | 9 | 33 | 5:09 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 3 | DET | DET 30 | 5 | 9 | 1:24 | Punt | |
| 4 | HOU | HOU 43 | 8 | 51 | 4:13 | Field goal +3 | |
| 5 | DET | DET 30 | 13 | 70 | 6:17 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 6 | HOU | HOU 30 | 6 | -9 | 2:27 | Field goal +3 | |
| 7 | DET | DET 30 | 3 | 0 | 0:51 | Interception | |
| 8 | HOU | DET 36 | 8 | 25 | 3:27 | Field goal +3 | |
| 9 | DET | DET 30 | 5 | 2 | 0:52 | Punt | |
| 10 | HOU | HOU 33 | 4 | -15 | 1:24 | Punt | |
| 11 | DET | DET 19 | 4 | 2 | 0:57 | Punt | |
| 12 | HOU | HOU 34 | 7 | 66 | 0:42 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 13 | DET | DET 30 | 4 | 15 | 0:12 | Interception | |
| 14 | HOU | HOU 30 | 2 | 0 | 0:04 | Interception | |
| 15 | DET | HOU 31 | 3 | 11 | 1:18 | Interception | |
| 16 | HOU | HOU 1 | 4 | 1 | 0:54 | Punt | |
| 17 | DET | HOU 44 | 4 | 44 | 1:10 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 18 | HOU | HOU 30 | 6 | 40 | 2:39 | Interception | |
| 19 | DET | DET 20 | 2 | 12 | 0:37 | Interception | |
| 20 | HOU | HOU 22 | 7 | 16 | 4:27 | Punt | |
| 21 | DET | DET 10 | 7 | 39 | 3:27 | Punt | |
| 22 | HOU | HOU 9 | 4 | 1 | 0:35 | Punt | |
| 23 | DET | DET 36 | 8 | 64 | 3:11 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 24 | HOU | HOU 30 | 6 | 9 | 3:17 | Punt | |
| 25 | DET | DET 17 | 7 | 43 | 3:20 | Field goal +3 | |
| 26 | HOU | HOU 30 | 10 | 30 | 3:10 | Missed field goal | |
| 27 | DET | DET 48 | 6 | 18 | 1:51 | Field goal +3 |
10 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 70 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Detroit Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 15/30 | 240 | 2 | 5 | 0 | -1.9 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 19 | 71 | 3.7 | 0 | -3.8 |
| David Montgomery | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 1 | -2.3 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0.5 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LaPorta | 3 | 6 | 66 | 1 | 25% | -4.3 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 6 | 8 | 60 | 1 | 33% | 2.9 |
| Jameson Williams | 3 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 21% | 3.6 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 13% | -2.3 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 8% | 0.9 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Branch | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jack Campbell | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alim McNeill | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Paschal | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Anzalone | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Carlton Davis | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Amik Robertson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrion Arnold | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sam LaPorta | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerby Joseph | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Houston Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 19/33 | 232 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5.9 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 25 | 46 | 1.8 | 1 | -7.0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | -0.2 |
| C.J. Stroud | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Tank Dell | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 | -1.4 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Metchie | 5 | 6 | 74 | 1 | 19% | 9.0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 4 | 66 | 0 | 13% | 4.3 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 13% | 2.3 |
| Tank Dell | 5 | 9 | 39 | 0 | 28% | -8.2 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 13% | -2.9 |
| Cade Stover | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6% | -0.9 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9% | -2.5 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danielle Hunter | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Pitre | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jimmie Ward | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Henry To'oTo'o | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Eric Murray | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ka'dar Hollman | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calen Bullock | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Devin White | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tommy Togiai | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- DET -4.5
- Closing total
- 49
- DET moneyline
- -230
- HOU moneyline
- +190
Lions closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 49 and landed exactly there — a push.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- NRG Stadium
- Roof / surface
- closed · astroturf
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Bill Vinovich
- Rest
- DET 7 days · HOU 10 days
- Coaches
- Dan Campbell vs DeMeco Ryans