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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:10 AM ET · 16 to play
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Lions167 of 179 plays carry both curves
(1:56) 15-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Swing −25.0 for TexansExpected points −3.03 for TexansThe model had Texans 6 points higher than the market did.play 167
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:56DET +25% win prob(1:56) 15-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
4th · 1:40HOU +17% win prob(1:40) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to HOU 37 for 11 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).
4th · 0:04HOU +15% win prob(:04) 39-J.Bates 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
4th · 5:06HOU +13% win prob(5:06) 39-J.Bates 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
4th · 5:57DET +13% win prob(5:57) 26-J.Gibbs right end to HOU 40 for -7 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o).
2nd · 7:42DET +12% win prob(7:42) 72-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 87-S.LaPorta INTERCEPTED by 39-H.To'oTo'o (96-D.Autry) [96-D.Autry] at DET 36. 39-H.To'oTo'o to DET 36 for no gain (87-S.LaPorta).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jake Bates's 52-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 4th put Detroit Lions ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
3rd11:36David Montgomery·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+613–23
4th11:43Amon-Ra St. Brown·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+720–23
4th5:06Jake Bates·58-yd field goal58-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+323–23
4th0:04Jake Bates·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.HattenLead never changed again+326–23
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryTexans
Lions8–1Texans
345Total yards248
5.5Yards per play3.8
40%Success rate32%
58%Third-down rate40%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays4
19First downs15
0Sacks taken4
5Turnovers2
The read
Lions ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Lions: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.23Texans: −0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.04Lions: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.16Texans: −0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Lions: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.32Texans: −0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 63 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Texans’s 65 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Lions 4, Texans 4.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DET's pass rate over expected, −15.4 pts, sat 11.7 points below their season number of −3.7 pts — they ran more than the situation asked by 2.0 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
DET's blitz rate sent turned over: 20.0% in week 9 against 44.7% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.1 points.
DET's sack or hit rate turned over: 5.0% in week 9 against 18.4% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · +2.9 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Texans16.1%
right on their number · +0.2 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteDET's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -15.4 pts, 11.7 points below their season mean of -3.7 pts and 2.0 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Jake Bates+34% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:04) 39-J.Bates 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q4 0:04 · Lions · 3rd & 7 at HOU 34 · gained nothing · +0.93 EP · +34.1% win probability
165 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 70 yards from the DET 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
41%
Yards
593
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.0567%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.2451%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR26-0.6542%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25-0.5440%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 46
Lions0Texans6
Lions0Texans7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Lions 33 to the Lions 8
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 34
Lions0Texans10
Field goal9 plays, from the Texans 43 to the Lions 3
The period ended6 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 47
2nd quarter55 plays
Lions6Texans10
Lions7Texans10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 49 to the Texans 20
Lions7Texans13
Field goal7 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Lions 35
Intercepted4 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 35
Lions7Texans16
Field goal8 plays, from the Lions 36 to the Lions 11
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 32
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 19 to the Lions 21
Lions7Texans22
Lions7Texans23
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 34 to the Lions 15
Intercepted5 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 45
3rd quarter39 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Texans 31 to the Texans 19
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 1 to the Texans 2
Lions13Texans23
Touchdown4 plays, from the Texans 44 to the Texans 3
Intercepted6 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Lions 30
Intercepted2 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 32
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 22 to the Texans 33
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 10 to the Lions 49
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter46 plays
Punt2 plays
Lions19Texans23
Lions20Texans23
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 36 to the Texans 9
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 47
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Lions23Texans23
Field goal7 plays, from the Lions 17 to the Texans 33
The period ended11 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Lions 40
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Lions26Texans23
Field goal10 plays, from the Lions 48 to the Texans 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Lions -4.5
Closing total
49
Lions moneyline
-230
Texans moneyline
+190
Lions closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 49 and landed exactly there — a push.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Lions 7 days · Texans 10 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs DeMeco Ryans
3rd · 4:04
HOU +12% win prob
(4:04) 6-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to DET 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 38 for 20 yards (13-D.Phillips). PENALTY on DET-51-B.Niemann, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 20.
1st · 9:16HOU +11% win prob(9:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 8-J.Metchie pushed ob at DET 10 for 16 yards (21-A.Robertson).
