For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Dolphins154 of 164 plays carry both curves
(12:52) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle pushed ob at LA 18 for 36 yards (14-C.Durant).
Swing −14.7 for RamsExpected points −4.42 for RamsModel and market agree here.play 6
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:52LA +15% win prob(12:52) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle pushed ob at LA 18 for 36 yards (14-C.Durant).
3rd · 0:29MIA +11% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at MIA 35 for -12 yards (8-J.Holland).
2nd · 0:33MIA +11% win prob(:33) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 48 for -8 yards (56-Q.Bell). FUMBLES (56-Q.Bell), and recovers at LA 47.
3rd · 6:27LA +10% win prob(6:27) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 9-J.Smith to LA 1 for 33 yards (97-M.Hoecht).
2nd · 0:03LA +10% win prob(:03) 16-J.Karty 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
1st · 1:09MIA +8% win prob(1:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 15-D.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 6-A.Walker (93-C.Campbell) at MIA 41. 6-A.Walker to MIA 46 for 5 yards (15-D.Robinson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Malik Washington's 18-yard rushing touchdown with 12:08 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:08Malik Washington·18-yd TD run18-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
2nd14:12Jason Sanders·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap T.Addington+310–0
2nd5:50Joshua Karty·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+310–3
2nd0:03Joshua Karty·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+310–6
3rd5:35Tyreek Hill·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+717–6
4th15:00Joshua Karty·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+317–9
4th9:11Jason Sanders·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap T.Addington+320–9
4th6:34Joshua Karty·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+320–12
4th2:43Jason Sanders·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap T.Addington+323–12
4th0:42Joshua Karty·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+323–15
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categoryRams
Dolphins4–4Rams
239Total yards327
4.6Yards per play4.9
38%Success rate45%
46%Third-down rate27%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays2
14First downs20
3Sacks taken4
2Turnovers2
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Dolphins, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Dolphins: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.24Rams: −0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.05Dolphins: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.15Rams: −0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.23Dolphins: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.49Rams: −0.49 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 52 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Rams’s 67 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 3, Rams 3.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LA's blitz rate sent turned over: 44.2% in week 9 against 22.6% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 24 pts
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Rams12.9%
right on their number · +1.3 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteLA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 69.6%, 16.3 points above their season mean of 53.3% and 1.4 times their own 12.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
74Liam EichenbergG · Every snap100%53 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Every snap100%53 snaps
1Tua TagovailoaQB · Every snap100%53 snaps
55Aaron BrewerG · Every snap100%53 snaps
70Kendall LammT · Full-time96%51 snaps
17Jaylen WaddleWR · Full-time89%47 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Full-time87%46 snaps
28De'Von AchaneRB · Heavy rotation70%37 snaps
89Julian HillTE · Heavy rotation55%29 snaps
65Robert JonesG · Heavy rotation55%29 snaps
81Durham SmytheTE · Rotational47%25 snaps
66Lester CottonG · Rotational45%24 snaps
9Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational43%23 snaps
83Malik WashingtonWR · Rotational34%18 snaps
3Odell Beckham Jr.WR · Rotational32%17 snaps
25Jaylen WrightRB · Situational17%9 snaps
31Raheem MostertRB · Situational15%8 snaps
85River CracraftWR · Situational8%4 snaps
80Tanner ConnerWR · Situational4%2 snaps
52Patrick PaulT · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Andrew MeyerCStorm DuckCBEthan BonnerCBAlec IngoldFBMohamed KamaraOLBJeff WilsonRBDee EskridgeWR
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Tagovailoa pass+16% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:52) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle pushed ob at LA 18 for 36 yards (14-C.Durant).
Q1 12:52 · Dolphins · 3rd & 13 at MIA 46 · gained 36 · +4.42 EP · +15.9% win probability
152 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 70 yards from the MIA 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
44%
Yards
565
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61-0.1574%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.2369%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22-0.1545%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-1.2267%
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.0 seconds
Dolphins6Rams0
Dolphins7Rams0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Rams 18
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 37
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 49 to midfield
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 16 to the Dolphins 32
Intercepted6 plays, from the Rams 33 to the Dolphins 49
The period ended3 plays, from the Dolphins 46 to the Rams 39
2nd quarter45 plays
Dolphins10Rams0
Field goal3 plays, from the Rams 37 to the Rams 32
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 16 to the Rams 31
Intercepted2 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost1 play
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Dolphins 39 to the Rams 49
Dolphins10Rams3
Field goal7 plays, from the Dolphins 36 to the Dolphins 16
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 47
Dolphins10Rams6
Field goal13 plays, from the Rams 9 to the Dolphins 37
3rd quarter31 plays
No good11 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Dolphins 28
Dolphins16Rams6
Dolphins17Rams6
Touchdown8 plays, from the Dolphins 47 to the Rams 1
The period ended12 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Dolphins 21
4th quarter51 plays
Dolphins17Rams9
Field goal1 play
Dolphins20Rams9
Field goal13 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Rams 19
Dolphins20Rams12
Field goal9 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Dolphins 4
Dolphins23Rams12
Field goal11 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Rams 31
Dolphins23Rams15
Field goal14 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Dolphins 12
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -2.5
Closing total
49.5
Dolphins moneyline
+120
Rams moneyline
-142
Rams closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 38 — under by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
Dolphins 8 days · Rams 8 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs Sean McVay
3rd · 11:45
MIA +7% win prob
(11:45) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 34, and recovers at MIA 37. 9-M.Stafford to MIA 41 for -4 yards (20-J.Brooks).
2nd · 10:08MIA +7% win prob(10:08) 23-K.Williams left guard to MIA 39 for 4 yards (6-A.Walker, 90-D.Hand). FUMBLES (90-D.Hand), touched at MIA 40, RECOVERED by MIA-29-K.Fuller at MIA 38. 29-K.Fuller to MIA 39 for 1 yard (17-P.Nacua).
