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2024 Week 10 · Mon, Nov 11, 2024 · SoFi Stadium

Miami DolphinsWinner

23

Los Angeles Rams

15

LA -2.5 upsetU 49.5 ✓Dome

Miami Dolphins 23–15. Biggest swing: Q1 12:52, LA +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LA ↑MIA ↓
Q1 · 12:52MIA 0 — LA 0MIA ball · 3rd & 13LA 59%

(12:52) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle pushed ob at LA 18 for 36 yards (14-C.Durant).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 12:52LA +15% win prob(12:52) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle pushed ob at LA 18 for 36 yards (14-C.Durant).
  2. Q3 · 0:29MIA +11% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at MIA 35 for -12 yards (8-J.Holland).
  3. Q2 · 0:33MIA +11% win prob(:33) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 48 for -8 yards (56-Q.Bell). FUMBLES (56-Q.Bell), and recovers at LA 47.
  4. Q3 · 6:27LA +10% win prob(6:27) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 9-J.Smith to LA 1 for 33 yards (97-M.Hoecht).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:08MIA Touchdown

    (12:08) 83-M.Washington right end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 7 — LA 0
  2. Q2 · 14:12MIA Field goal

    (14:12) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: MIA 10 — LA 0
  3. Q2 · 5:50LA Field goal

    (5:50) 16-J.Karty 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: MIA 10 — LA 3
  4. Q2 · 0:03LA Field goal

    (:03) 16-J.Karty 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: MIA 10 — LA 6
  5. Q3 · 5:35MIA Touchdown

    (5:35) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 17 — LA 6
  6. Q4 · 15:00LA Field goal

    (15:00) 16-J.Karty 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: MIA 17 — LA 9
  7. Q4 · 9:11MIA Field goal

    (9:11) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: MIA 20 — LA 9
  8. Q4 · 6:34LA Field goal

    (6:34) 16-J.Karty 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: MIA 20 — LA 12
  9. Q4 · 2:43MIA Field goal

    (2:43) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: MIA 23 — LA 12
  10. Q4 · 0:42LA Field goal

    (:42) 16-J.Karty 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: MIA 23 — LA 15

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricDolphinsRams
Offensive plays5267
Total yards239327 (edge)
Yards per play4.64.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.12 (edge)-0.24
Success rate38%45% (edge)
Dropback rate60%73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.05 (edge)-0.15
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.23 (edge)-0.49
Third downs6/13 (edge)3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)5 (edge)2
First downs gained on snaps1420 (edge)
Sacks taken3 (edge)4
Turnovers22

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.24.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

32/46, 293 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-7.0 expected points added · +1.0% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

20/28, 207 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-1.5 expected points added · -3.3% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

15 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

-6.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Devon AchaneRB

12 att, 37 yds, 0 TD

-3.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Puka NacuaWR

9/14 for 98 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

7/7 for 80 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MIAMIA 307702:59Touchdown +7
2LALA 30572:05Punt
3MIAMIA 18400:18Punt
4LALA 494-91:30Punt
5MIAMIA 167163:56Punt
6LALA 335213:11Interception
7MIAMIA 465221:54Field goal +3
8LALA 167103:08Punt
9MIAMIA 362-40:51Interception
10LAMIA 43130:13Fumble
11MIAMIA 394-32:18Fumble
12LAMIA 366201:51Field goal +3
13MIAMIA 307103:33Punt
14LALA 911542:13Field goal +3
15LALA 3010495:49Missed field goal
16MIAMIA 477533:39Touchdown +7
17LALA 2612395:37Field goal +3
18MIAMIA 3012365:48Field goal +3
19LALA 309662:36Field goal +3
20MIAMIA 309393:53Field goal +3
21LALA 3013671:59Field goal +3
22MIALA 43200:39End of game

10 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 70 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa20/28207113-1.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Devon Achane12373.10-3.4
Malik Washington11818.012.0
Tyreek Hill2115.500.2
Jaylen Wright530.60-2.9
Tua Tagovailoa1-1-1.00-2.4
Jaylen Waddle1-1-1.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jaylen Waddle3657021%-1.1
Jonnu Smith3445014%3.7
Raheem Mostert2334011%4.0
Malik Washington121707%0.3
Odell Beckham221707%1.8
Tyreek Hill3416114%-1.0
Devon Achane5515018%-1.9
Durham Smythe11604%0.0
Julian Hill01004%0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordyn Brooks350.001
Jordan Poyer250.000
Anthony Walker160.011
Jalen Ramsey420.000
Kendall Fuller410.001
Zach Sieler230.001
Cam Smith220.000
Jevon Holland211.000
Kader Kohou300.000
Calais Campbell211.002

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Matthew Stafford32/46293014-7.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kyren Williams15624.10-6.0
Blake Corum284.00-0.8
Matthew Stafford100.00-2.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Puka Nacua91498032%1.5
Cooper Kupp7780016%4.7
Davis Allen5634014%-0.3
Tyler Johnson342509%1.2
Demarcus Robinson1523011%-5.0
Kyren Williams5620014%-1.5
Blake Corum11702%0.6
Tutu Atwell11602%0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Omar Speights520.000
Quentin Lake420.000
Kobie Turner411.001
Byron Young221.000
Jared Verse311.000
Cobie Durant210.000
Darious Williams300.000
Michael Hoecht120.000
Bobby Brown210.000
Tyler Davis200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LA -2.5
Closing total
49.5
MIA moneyline
+120
LA moneyline
-142

Rams closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 38 — under by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
MIA 8 days · LA 8 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs Sean McVay