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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 10, 2024 · TIAA Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 10
It turned at Q4 1:57, 1st and 10, on Camryn Bynum — 20.8 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:57 · 1st and 10
Camryn Bynum
Vikings
(1:57) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right intended for 0-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum [51-B.Cashman] at MIN -2. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the touchback ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right intended for 0-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum [51-B.Cashman] at MIN 1. 24-C.Bynum to MIN 1 for no gain (0-G.Davis).
Minnesota Vikings 12–7. Biggest swing: Q4 1:57, Vikings +20.8% win probability on one snap.
20.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Vikings at 0 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Vikings won this one — -0.01 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.41 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Vikings won this one — -0.00 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 19.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
(1:57) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right intended for 0-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum [51-B.Cashman] at MIN -2. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the touchback ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
John Parker Romo's 34-yard field goal with 7:17 left in the 4th put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
John Parker Romo34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap J.McQuaideLead never changed again+39–75 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Vikingscategory by categoryJaguars
Vikings ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jaguars, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 80 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 43 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 5, Jaguars 1.
Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
JAX's blitz rate sent, 7.1%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 3.6 points clear of the next team along.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
MIN's pass rate over expected, −4.8 pts, is past their previous low of −1.8 pts in week 8 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
80 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Vikings-4.8 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −8.9 vs their 4.1 pts, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (−2.02× that swing) · 80 snaps
Jaguars-4.0 ptsright on their number · −0.4 vs their -3.6 pts, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 43 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 83%
Tendencies room →Vikings46.2%leaned — ran early · −8.4 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 65 early downs
Jaguars59.4%right on their number · +2.5 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 32 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 49%
Tendencies room →Vikings23.8%right on their number · −3.1 vs their 26.9%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Jaguars22.2%right on their number · −0.4 vs their 22.6%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37% to 100%
Fourth Down room →Vikings—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.0%.
Jaguars—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 78%
Tendencies room →Vikings40.7%right on their number · −4.1 vs their 44.8%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Jaguars7.1%leaned — sat back · −7.9 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 32%
Tendencies room →Vikings14.8%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Jaguars7.1%inside their normal wobble · −2.9 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
MIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -4.8 pts, 8.9 points below their season mean of 4.1 pts and 2.0 times their own 4.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIN
24/38, 241 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT
-2.4 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
14/22, 111 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-9.0 expected points added · -1.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
T.J. Hockenson banked 1.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. HockensonTE · Featured Receiver | 15.2 | +1.0 | 46% | 67% | 24% | 19% | 8/9, 72 yd |
| Aaron JonesRB · Committee Back | 12.1 | −1.0 | 52% | 52% | 8% | 5% | 17 car, 88 yd · 2/3, 13 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Alpha Receiver | 10.0 | −1.9 | 84% | 78% | 38% | 29% | 6/8, 40 yd |
| Justin JeffersonWR · Featured Receiver | 9.8 | −8.3 | 93% | 93% | 24% | 22% | 5/9, 48 yd |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.2 | −2.5 | 68% | 45% | 16% | 22% | 4/6, 52 yd |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 6.4 | −15.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/38, 241 yd, 3 INT · 7 car, 28 yd |
| Cam AkersRB | 5.7 | −2.4 | 31% | 24% | 3% | 0% | 13 car, 38 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Travis EtienneRB · Bell Cow Back | 5.3 | −4.6 | 68% | 56% | 5% | 0% | 11 car, 44 yd · 1/1, -1 yd |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 5.2 | −12.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/22, 111 yd, 2 INT · 5 car, 8 yd, 1 TD |
| Jordan AddisonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | −4.8 | 74% | 76% | 14% | 22% | 1 car, 4 yd · 2/5, 25 yd |
| Brenton StrangeTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | +0.3 | 41% | 33% | 14% | 5% | 2/3, 25 yd |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | +0.8 | 36% | 30% | 10% | 4% | 2/2, 16 yd |
| Brian ThomasWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −1.2 | 86% | 85% | 14% | 13% | 2/3, 12 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 2.9 | −5.5 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.4 | 14% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Ty ChandlerRB | 1.8 | −0.3 | 14% | 12% | 0% | — | 4 car, 18 yd |
| Jalen NailorWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −6.0 | 50% | 52% | 8% | 8% | 1 car, -7 yd · 1/3, 11 yd |
| Tank BigsbyRB | 0.4 | −0.5 | 23% | 22% | 0% | — | 2 car, 4 yd |
| Devin DuvernayWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Brandon PowellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 13% | 14% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:57) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right intended for 0-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum [51-B.Cashman] at MIN -2. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the touchback ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right intended for 0-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum [51-B.Cashman] at MIN 1. 24-C.Bynum to MIN 1 for no gain (0-G.Davis).
Q4 1:57 · Jaguars · 1st & 10 at MIN 43 · gained nothing · -2.15 EP · −24.0% win probability
150 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 76 yards from the MIN 17 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Vikings3
Jaguars0Vikings3Jaguars6Vikings3Jaguars7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Vikings6Jaguars7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Vikings9Jaguars7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Vikings12Jaguars7How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Vikings at Jaguars, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 24/38 | 241 | 0 | 3 | 1 | −2.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 17 | 88 | 5.2 | 0 | +2.8 |
| Cam Akers | 13 | 38 | 2.9 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Sam Darnold | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 | +4.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 8 | 9 | 72 | 0 | 24% | +8.3 |
| Josh Oliver | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 | 16% | +2.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Cashman | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephon Gilmore | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ivan Pace | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Metellus |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 14/22 | 111 | 0 | 2 | 3 | −9.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_10_MIN_JAX
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -7, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 19 — under by 23.5.
Conditions and crew
| Ty Chandler | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Jordan Addison | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Justin Jefferson | 5 | 9 | 48 | 0 | 24% | −10.3 |
| Jordan Addison | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 14% | −0.0 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 8% | −0.6 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 8% | +0.0 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Greenard | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Shaquill Griffin | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 |
| 44 |
| 4.0 |
| 0 |
| −2.1 |
| Mac Jones | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 1 | −2.6 |
| Tank Bigsby | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 6 | 8 | 40 | 0 | 38% | +0.3 |
| Brenton Strange | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 14% | −0.9 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 19% | −4.4 |
| Luke Farrell | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 10% | +1.4 |
| Brian Thomas | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 14% | −0.9 |
| Travis Etienne | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 5% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Lloyd | 8 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Foyesade Oluokun | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyson Campbell | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Davon Hamilton | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Cisco | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Savage | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Travon Walker | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ventrell Miller | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Antonio Johnson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yasir Abdullah | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
