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2024 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 10, 2024 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Minnesota VikingsWinner

12

Jacksonville Jaguars

7

MIN -7 no coverU 42.5 ✓

Minnesota Vikings 12–7. Biggest swing: Q4 1:57, MIN +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3JAX ↑MIN ↓
Q4 · 1:57MIN 12 — JAX 7JAX ball · 1st & 10MIN 72%

(1:57) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right intended for 0-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum [51-B.Cashman] at MIN -2. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the touchback ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 1:57MIN +21% win prob(1:57) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right intended for 0-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum [51-B.Cashman] at MIN -2. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the touchback ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right intended for 0-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum [51-B.Cashman] at MIN 1. 24-C.Bynum to MIN 1 for no gain (0-G.Davis).
  2. Q3 · 12:24MIN +16% win prob(12:24) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 6-D.Savage at JAX 0. 6-D.Savage ran ob at JAX 29 for 29 yards (74-C.Robinson). Penalty on JAX-93-T.Lacy, Illegal Blindside Block, offsetting, enforced at JAX 16. Penalty on MIN-74-C.Robinson, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.
  3. Q4 · 6:38MIN +16% win prob(6:38) 10-M.Jones FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 27, touched at JAX 26, RECOVERED by MIN-97-H.Phillips at JAX 25.
  4. Q2 · 5:34MIN +16% win prob(5:34) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 30-M.Brown [99-J.Ledbetter] at JAX -5. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:00MIN Field goal

    (8:00) 96-J.Romo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: MIN 3 — JAX 0
  2. Q1 · 3:48JAX Touchdown

    (3:48) 10-M.Jones up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 3 — JAX 7
  3. Q3 · 1:45MIN Field goal

    (1:45) 96-J.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: MIN 6 — JAX 7
  4. Q4 · 7:17MIN Field goal

    (7:17) 96-J.Romo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: MIN 9 — JAX 7
  5. Q4 · 4:26MIN Field goal

    (4:26) 96-J.Romo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: MIN 12 — JAX 7

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricVikingsJaguars
Offensive plays8043
Total yards403 (edge)143
Yards per play5.0 (edge)3.3
Expected points added / play-0.00 (edge)-0.34
Success rate48% (edge)30%
Dropback rate53%63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.00 (edge)-0.29
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.01 (edge)-0.41
Third downs5/145/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps25 (edge)9
Sacks taken1 (edge)3
Turnovers3 (edge)4

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.34.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Sam DarnoldQB

24/38, 241 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

-2.4 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Mac JonesQB

14/22, 111 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-9.0 expected points added · -1.0% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Aaron JonesRB

17 att, 88 yds, 0 TD

2.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

11 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

-2.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

T.J. HockensonTE

8/9 for 72 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 8.3 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Josh OliverTE

4/6 for 52 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 30521:35Punt
2MINMIN 2012535:29Field goal +3
3JAXJAX 3011704:12Touchdown +7
4MINMIN 305452:24Interception
5JAXJAX 22490:52Punt
6MINMIN 17177610:04Interception
7JAXJAX 2010233:42Defensive touchdown
8MINMIN 18480:25Punt
9JAXJAX 313-31:17End of half
10MINMIN 308522:50Interception
11JAXJAX 165152:09Punt
12MINMIN 1414778:19Field goal +3
13JAXJAX 30531:42Punt
14MINMIN 1616687:46Field goal +3
15JAXJAX 303-30:39Fumble
16MINJAX 255142:13Field goal +3
17JAXJAX 30320:43Interception
18MINJAX 47410:57Punt
19JAXJAX 175250:50Interception
20MINMIN 1591:52End of game

5 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 77 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Darnold24/38241031-2.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones17885.202.8
Cam Akers13382.90-3.3
Sam Darnold7284.004.0
Ty Chandler4184.500.1
Jordan Addison144.00-0.0
Jalen Nailor1-7-7.00-1.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
T.J. Hockenson8972024%8.3
Josh Oliver4652016%2.5
Justin Jefferson5948024%-10.3
Jordan Addison2525014%-0.0
Aaron Jones231308%-0.6
Trent Sherfield111103%0.9
Jalen Nailor131108%0.0
Cam Akers11903%-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Blake Cashman321.000
Stephon Gilmore320.000
Ivan Pace321.000
Josh Metellus220.000
Andrew Van Ginkel301.000
Jonathan Greenard210.000
Camryn Bynum120.011
Shaquill Griffin110.000
Josh Oliver100.000
Byron Murphy100.011

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Mac Jones14/22111023-9.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne11444.00-2.1
Mac Jones581.61-2.6
Tank Bigsby242.00-0.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Evan Engram6840038%0.3
Brenton Strange2325014%-0.9
Gabe Davis1419019%-4.4
Luke Farrell2216010%1.4
Brian Thomas2312014%-0.9
Travis Etienne11-105%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Devin Lloyd870.000
Foyesade Oluokun650.011
Tyson Campbell450.001
Davon Hamilton330.000
Andre Cisco320.000
Darnell Savage310.011
Travon Walker221.000
Ventrell Miller310.001
Antonio Johnson310.000
Yasir Abdullah120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIN -7
Closing total
42.5
MIN moneyline
-345
JAX moneyline
+280

Vikings closed -7, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 19 — under by 23.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
79°F, wind 7 mph
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
MIN 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches
Kevin O'Connell vs Doug Pederson