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New England Patriots 19 at Chicago Bears 3. Final.
Bears -6.5 upsetU 37.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 10
New England Patriots 19, Bears 3 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 2:00, 3rd and 1, on Rhamondre Stevenson — 12.3 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:00 · 3rd and 1
Rhamondre Stevenson
Patriots
(2:00) 64-L.Robinson and 62-S.Sow reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left end to CHI 2 for 2 yards (53-T.Edwards).
16.4 mph wind
Bears closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New England Patriots 19–3. Biggest swing: Q2 2:00, Patriots +12.3% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.4 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
12.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Austin HooperPatriotsQ2 4:00(4:00) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 81-A.Hooper to CHI 13 for 24 yards (22-E.Hicks).
8.7pts
Joey SlyeBearsQ2 0:01(:01) 13-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
12.1pts
What separated them
Third down
Patriots won this one — 5 of 14 on third down, against Bears at 1 of 14 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Bears at 1 chunk play.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.00 expected points per snap, against Bears at -0.40 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — -0.02 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.48 expected points per dropback.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Patriots158 of 173 plays carry both curves
(2:00) 64-L.Robinson and 62-S.Sow reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left end to CHI 2 for 2 yards (53-T.Edwards).
Swing −12.3 for BearsExpected points −0.60 for BearsThe model had Patriots 16 points higher than the market did.play 68
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:00CHI +12% win prob(2:00) 64-L.Robinson and 62-S.Sow reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left end to CHI 2 for 2 yards (53-T.Edwards).
2nd · 0:01NE +12% win prob(:01) 13-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
2nd · 4:00CHI +9% win prob(4:00) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 81-A.Hooper to CHI 13 for 24 yards (22-E.Hicks).
2nd · 0:16CHI +8% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 9-K.Boutte to CHI 24 for 23 yards (1-J.Johnson).
3rd · 2:50CHI +8% win prob(2:50) 17-B.Baringer punts 75 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.
2nd · 14:23NE +7% win prob(14:23) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 2-D.Moore to NE 47 for -2 yards (21-J.Hawkins).
3rd · 5:37
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ja'Lynn Polk's 2-yard touchdown catch with 1:51 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:23Joey Slye·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Cardona+33–0
2nd7:21Cairo Santos·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+33–3
2nd0:01Joey Slye·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Cardona+313–3
4th7:34Joey Slye·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Cardona+316–3
4th2:21Joey Slye·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Cardona+319–3
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Patriotscategory by categoryBears
Patriots8–1Bears
329Total yards142
5.5Yards per play2.4
43%Success rate32%
36%Third-down rate7%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
6Explosive plays1
16First downs10
1Sacks taken9
1Turnovers0
The read
Patriots ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.00Patriots: +0.00 expected points added per play
−0.40Bears: −0.40 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.02Patriots: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.48Bears: −0.48 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Patriots: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.23Bears: −0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 60 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Bears’s 59 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 5, Bears 1.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.40.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NE's sack or hit rate, 31.7%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 4.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 16.7% in week 8.
3.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
high through week 10Against their seasonTendencies
NE's play-action rate, 24.1%, is past their previous high of 20.9% in week 7 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
NE's early-down pass rate turned over: 76.9% in week 9 against 42.2% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 11 pts
off script — got home · +21.5 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+3.01× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Bears24.1%
leaned — got home · +6.8 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+1.19× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NoteNE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 31.7%, 21.5 points above their season mean of 10.2% and 3.0 times their own 7.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
71Mike OnwenuG · Every snap100%64 snaps
77Ben BrownG · Every snap100%64 snaps
75Demontrey JacobsT · Every snap100%64 snaps
74Mike JordanG · Every snap100%64 snaps
10Drake MayeQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
59Vederian LoweT · Every snap100%64 snaps
9Kayshon BoutteWR · Full-time97%62 snaps
85Hunter HenryTE · Full-time89%57 snaps
38Rhamondre StevensonRB · Heavy rotation70%45 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Heavy rotation64%41 snaps
2K.J. OsbornWR · Rotational45%29 snaps
3Demario DouglasWR · Rotational42%27 snaps
1Ja'Lynn PolkWR · Rotational41%26 snaps
39JaMycal HastyRB · Situational19%12 snaps
4Antonio GibsonRB · Situational11%7 snaps
62Sidy SowG · Situational9%6 snaps
6Javon BakerWR · Situational6%4 snaps
88Jaheim BellTE · Situational3%2 snaps
86Mitchell WilcoxTE · Situational2%1 snap
64Layden RobinsonG · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Eric JohnsonDTKyle DuggerFSTyrese RobinsonGChristian EllissILBJoe Milton IIIQBTyquan ThorntonWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Maye pass−12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:39) 10-D.Maye pass short right intended for 81-A.Hooper INTERCEPTED by 53-T.Edwards at CHI 48. 53-T.Edwards ran ob at CHI 48 for no gain.
Q1 0:39 · Patriots · 1st & 10 at NE 45 · gained nothing · -4.81 EP · −12.4% win probability
157 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 70 yards from the NE 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.16
Success rate
39%
Yards
470
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.5089%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28+0.0146%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.0050%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.2022%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.160%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 36
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 47 to the Patriots 44
Patriots3Bears0
Field goal12 plays, from the Patriots 34 to the Bears 12
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Patriots 29
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.3 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 45
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt3 plays, from midfield to the Patriots 45
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 12 to the Patriots 15
Patriots3Bears3
Field goal15 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Patriots 14
Patriots9Bears3
Patriots10Bears3
Touchdown13 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Bears 2
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 40
Patriots13Bears3
Field goal7 plays, from the Patriots 40 to the Bears 19
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Patriots 47
Punt9 plays, from the Patriots 14 to the Patriots 40
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 36
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 21 to the Patriots 30
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 27
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 38 to the Patriots 41
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter48 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 13 to the Bears 15
Patriots16Bears3
Field goal11 plays, from the Patriots 46 to the Bears 7
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Patriots 49
Patriots19Bears3
Field goal11 plays, from the Bears 46 to the Bears 15
The period ended9 plays, from the Bears 30 to midfield
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bears -6.5
Closing total
37.5
Patriots moneyline
+260
Bears moneyline
-325
Bears closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 37.5; the game landed 22 — under by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 60°F at kickoff; windy at 16 mph out of the south; 0.01 in of precipitation; partly cloudy.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Patriots 7 days · Bears 7 days
Coaches
Jerod Mayo vs Matt Eberflus
NoteWind at 16.4 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
NE +7% win prob
(5:37) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI 27 for -9 yards (41-B.Schooler).
1st · 0:39NE +7% win prob(:39) 10-D.Maye pass short right intended for 81-A.Hooper INTERCEPTED by 53-T.Edwards at CHI 48. 53-T.Edwards ran ob at CHI 48 for no gain.
