2024 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 10, 2024 · Soldier Field

New England PatriotsWinner

Chicago Bears

CHI -6.5 upsetU 37.5 ✓Bears closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New England Patriots 19–3. Biggest swing: Q2 2:00, CHI +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 2:00NE 3 — CHI 3NE ball · 3rd & 1CHI 54%

(2:00) 64-L.Robinson and 62-S.Sow reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left end to CHI 2 for 2 yards (53-T.Edwards).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 2:00CHI +12% win prob(2:00) 64-L.Robinson and 62-S.Sow reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left end to CHI 2 for 2 yards (53-T.Edwards).
Q2 · 0:01NE +12% win prob(:01) 13-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Q2 · 4:00CHI +9% win prob(4:00) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 81-A.Hooper to CHI 13 for 24 yards (22-E.Hicks).
Q2 · 0:16CHI +8% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 9-K.Boutte to CHI 24 for 23 yards (1-J.Johnson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:23NE Field goal
(6:23) 13-J.Slye 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 3 — CHI 0
Q2 · 7:21CHI Field goal
(7:21) 8-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Score after this play: NE 3 — CHI 3
Q2 · 1:51NE Touchdown
(1:51) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 1-J.Polk for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 10 — CHI 3
Q2 · 0:01NE Field goal
(:01) 13-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 13 — CHI 3
Q4 · 7:34NE Field goal
(7:34) 13-J.Slye 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 16 — CHI 3
Q4 · 2:21NE Field goal
(2:21) 13-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 19 — CHI 3

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Bears
Offensive plays	60	59
Total yards	329 (edge)	142
Yards per play	5.5 (edge)	2.4
Expected points added / play	0.00 (edge)	-0.40
Success rate	43% (edge)	32%
Dropback rate	48%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.48
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.23
Third downs	5/14 (edge)	1/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	1
First downs gained on snaps	16 (edge)	10
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	9
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.40.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Drake MayeQB

15/25, 184 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-1.3 expected points added · +5.2% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

16/30, 120 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-22.4 expected points added · -8.3% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

20 att, 74 yds, 0 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

D'Andre SwiftRB

16 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

-3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Austin HooperTE

3/4 for 64 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 0.3 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Demario DouglasWR

4/5 for 50 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 30	5	6	1:32	Punt
2	CHI	NE 47	4	0	1:43	Punt
3	NE	NE 34	11	54	5:26	Field goal +3
4	CHI	CHI 40	9	21	4:35	Punt
5	NE	NE 20	3	25	1:11	Interception
6	CHI	CHI 48	4	5	2:03	Punt
7	NE	NE 12	4	3	1:32	Punt
8	CHI	CHI 35	12	55	4:41	Field goal +3
9	NE	NE 30	12	70	5:31	Touchdown +7
10	CHI	CHI 30	7	6	1:11	Punt
11	NE	NE 40	5	36	0:35	Field goal +3
12	CHI	CHI 30	6	20	2:53	Punt
13	NE	NE 14	7	35	4:17	Punt
14	CHI	CHI 20	7	7	3:01	Punt
15	NE	NE 21	4	9	2:07	Punt
16	CHI	CHI 20	4	4	1:35	Punt
17	NE	NE 38	4	3	1:02	Punt
18	CHI	CHI 9	4	-1	1:32	Punt
19	NE	NE 46	10	57	6:03	Field goal +3
20	CHI	CHI 34	9	22	2:36	Turnover on downs
21	NE	CHI 46	7	31	2:37	Field goal +3
22	CHI	CHI 30	7	3	1:42	Turnover on downs
23	NE	CHI 48	1	0	0:35	End of game

6 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 70 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drake Maye	15/25	184	1	1	1	-1.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	20	74	3.7	0.1
Antonio Gibson	5	26	5.2	1.0
Drake Maye	4	24	6.0	-0.4
Jamycal Hasty	6	20	3.3	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Austin Hooper	3	4	64	0	17%	0.3
Demario Douglas	4	5	50	0	22%	2.2
Kayshon Boutte	4	6	47	0	26%	2.2
Hunter Henry	1	4	14	0	17%	-2.5
Jamycal Hasty	1	1	4	0	4%	-0.2
Rhamondre Stevenson	1	1	3	0	4%	-1.0
Ja'Lynn Polk	1	1	2	1	4%	1.5
K.J. Osborn	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jahlani Tavai	7	2	1.0	1
Jeremiah Pharms	4	1	1.0	0
Jonathan Jones	3	2	0.0	0
Anfernee Jennings	4	0	2.0	0
Marcus Jones	4	0	0.0	1
Keion White	2	2	1.0	1
Marco Wilson	2	1	0.0	0
Jaylinn Hawkins	2	0	0.0	0
Deatrich Wise	2	0	2.0	1
Christian Gonzalez	2	0	0.0	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Caleb Williams	16/30	120	0	0	9	-22.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
D'Andre Swift	16	59	3.7	-3.2
Caleb Williams	2	15	7.5	2.8
D.J. Moore	1	3	3.0	-0.2
Roschon Johnson	1	-4	-4.0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	5	6	44	23%	-0.2
D.J. Moore	3	6	24	23%	-2.9
Rome Odunze	3	6	23	23%	-0.6
Cole Kmet	2	4	13	15%	-0.2
D'Andre Swift	1	1	6	4%	-0.7
DeAndre Carter	1	1	5	4%	-0.2
Roschon Johnson	1	2	5	8%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
T.J. Edwards	7	5	1	1
Kevin Byard	4	6	0	1
Elijah Hicks	3	2	0	1
Tremaine Edmunds	1	3	0	1
Kyler Gordon	3	1	0	0
Gervon Dexter	2	2	0	0
Terell Smith	3	0	0	0
Tyrique Stevenson	2	1	0	0
Jaylon Johnson	1	1	0	0
Zacch Pickens	1	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CHI -6.5
Closing total: 37.5
NE moneyline: +260
CHI moneyline: -325

Bears closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 37.5; the game landed 22 — under by 15.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 60°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: NE 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches: Jerod Mayo vs Matt Eberflus