For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 10, 2024 · Soldier Field
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 10
It turned at Q2 2:00, 3rd and 1, on Rhamondre Stevenson — 12.3 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 19–3. Biggest swing: Q2 2:00, Patriots +12.3% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.4 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:00 · 3rd and 1
Rhamondre Stevenson
Patriots
(2:00) 64-L.Robinson and 62-S.Sow reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left end to CHI 2 for 2 yards (53-T.Edwards).
12.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Patriots won this one — 5 of 14 on third down, against Bears at 1 of 14 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Bears at 1 chunk play.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.00 expected points per snap, against Bears at -0.40 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — -0.02 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.48 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(2:00) 64-L.Robinson and 62-S.Sow reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left end to CHI 2 for 2 yards (53-T.Edwards).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Ja'Lynn Polk's 2-yard touchdown catch with 1:51 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryBears
Patriots ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 60 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Bears’s 59 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 5, Bears 1.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.40.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's sack or hit rate, 31.7%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 4.4 points clear of the next team along.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points. · +3.0σ from their own normal
NE's play-action rate, 24.1%, is past their previous high of 20.9% in week 7 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
NE's early-down pass rate turned over: 76.9% in week 9 against 42.2% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 11 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots-2.8 ptsright on their number · +0.3 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 60 snaps
Bears-6.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.0 vs their -2.5 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 28% to 85%
Tendencies room →Patriots42.2%leaned — ran early · −14.1 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−1.26× that swing) · 45 early downs
Bears56.1%right on their number · −1.9 vs their 58.0%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 33%
Tendencies room →Patriots24.1%leaned — faked the run · +7.1 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+1.39× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Bears12.2%leaned — dropped back clean · −6.2 vs their 18.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -54% to 127%
Fourth Down room →Patriots25.0%right on their number · −7.2 vs their 32.2%, and they swing ±33.7 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Bears66.7%right on their number · +8.9 vs their 57.7%, and they swing ±25.8 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 69%
Tendencies room →Patriots36.6%right on their number · +1.4 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±13.1 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Bears27.6%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 25.9%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 35%
Tendencies room →Patriots31.7%off script — got home · +21.5 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+3.01× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Bears24.1%leaned — got home · +6.8 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+1.19× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 31.7%, 21.5 points above their season mean of 10.2% and 3.0 times their own 7.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Chicago Bears
47 dressed · 8 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 8
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
15/25, 184 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-1.3 expected points added · +5.2% completion over expected
Passing · CHI
16/30, 120 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-22.4 expected points added · -8.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Ja'Lynn Polk banked 3.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 11.8 | −1.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/25, 184 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 24 yd |
| Keenan AllenWR · Featured Receiver | 9.4 | +1.8 | 93% | 95% | 23% | 23% | 5/6, 44 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.4 | +2.7 | 64% | 52% | 17% | 28% | 3/4, 64 yd |
| Demario DouglasWR · Featured Receiver | 9.0 | +2.7 | 42% | 62% | 22% | 4% | 4/5, 50 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 8.7 | −4.4 | 70% | 79% | 4% | 0% | 20 car, 74 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.7 | −1.0 | 97% | 100% | 26% | 59% | 4/6, 47 yd |
| D'Andre SwiftRB · Bell Cow Back | 7.5 | −2.6 | 67% | 56% | 4% | 1% | 16 car, 59 yd · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Ja'Lynn PolkWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | +3.3 | 41% | 38% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd, 1 TD |
| Caleb WilliamsQB · Starter QB | 6.3 | −1.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/30, 120 yd · 2 car, 15 yd |
| D.J. MooreWR · Featured Receiver | 5.7 | −2.9 | 97% | 100% | 23% | 16% | 1 car, 3 yd · 3/6, 24 yd |
| Rome OdunzeWR · Featured Receiver | 5.3 | −2.7 | 68% | 88% | 23% | 39% | 3/6, 23 yd |
| Jamycal HastyRB | 3.4 | −0.4 | 19% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 6 car, 20 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Cole KmetTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −2.0 | 93% | 90% | 15% | 11% | 2/4, 13 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB | 2.6 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −4.3 | 89% | 93% | 17% | 6% | 1/4, 14 yd |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Roschon JohnsonRB | 1.1 | −2.5 | 33% | 44% | 8% | 7% | 1 car, -4 yd · 1/2, 5 yd |
| Travis HomerRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| K.J. OsbornWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.3 | 45% | 55% | 4% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:39) 10-D.Maye pass short right intended for 81-A.Hooper INTERCEPTED by 53-T.Edwards at CHI 48. 53-T.Edwards ran ob at CHI 48 for no gain.
Q1 0:39 · Patriots · 1st & 10 at NE 45 · gained nothing · -4.81 EP · −12.4% win probability
157 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 173 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 70 yards from the NE 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots3
Bears0How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Patriots3Bears3Patriots9Bears3Patriots10Bears3Patriots13Bears3Patriots16Bears3Patriots19Bears3Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Bears, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 15/25 | 184 | 1 | 1 | 1 | −1.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 20 | 74 | 3.7 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Drake Maye |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 4 | 64 | 0 | 17% | +0.3 |
| Demario Douglas | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 | 22% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahlani Tavai | 7 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeremiah Pharms | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Jones |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 16/30 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 9 | −22.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_10_NE_CHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bears closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 37.5; the game landed 22 — under by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 16.4 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 4 |
| 24 |
| 6.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.4 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 | −0.4 |
| +2.2 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 | 26% | +2.2 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 17% | −2.5 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −1.0 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4% | +1.5 |
| K.J. Osborn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.0 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 4 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Jones | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Keion White | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marco Wilson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deatrich Wise | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Gonzalez | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 16 | 59 | 3.7 | 0 | −3.2 |
| Caleb Williams | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 | +2.8 |
| D.J. Moore | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Roschon Johnson | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 23% | −0.2 |
| D.J. Moore | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 23% | −2.9 |
| Rome Odunze | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 23% | −0.6 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 15% | −0.2 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Roschon Johnson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Edwards | 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kevin Byard | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Elijah Hicks | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyler Gordon | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gervon Dexter | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terell Smith | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrique Stevenson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Johnson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zacch Pickens | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
