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New York Giants 17 at Carolina Panthers 20. Final.
Giants -6.5 upsetU 40.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 10
Carolina Panthers 20, Giants 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 9:55, 1st and 10, on Tyrone Tracy — 39.8 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 9:55 · 1st and 10
Tyrone Tracy
Panthers
(9:55) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy up the middle to NYG 24 for -2 yards (94-A.Robinson). FUMBLES (94-A.Robinson), touched at NYG 24, RECOVERED by CAR-47-J.Jewell at NYG 23.
Giants closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Carolina Panthers 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 9:55, Panthers +39.8% win probability on one snap.
39.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chuba HubbardGiantsQ4 8:08(8:08) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 30-C.Hubbard to CAR 23 for 3 yards (22-A.Phillips) [93-R.Nunez-Roches]. FUMBLES (22-A.Phillips), RECOVERED by NYG-98-D.Davidson at CAR 22. CAR-30-C.Hubbard was injured during the play. Penalty on CAR-68-D.Lewis, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
30.1pts
Josey JewellPanthersQ4 6:02(6:02) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left intended for 29-T.Tracy INTERCEPTED by 47-J.Jewell at CAR 9. 47-J.Jewell to CAR 9 for no gain (29-T.Tracy).
27.2pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Panthers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Giants at 3 giveaways.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Panthers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Giants at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Panthers won this one — -0.02 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.12 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Giants172 of 186 plays carry both curves
(9:55) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy up the middle to NYG 24 for -2 yards (94-A.Robinson). FUMBLES (94-A.Robinson), touched at NYG 24, RECOVERED by CAR-47-J.Jewell at NYG 23.
Swing +39.8 for PanthersExpected points +5.30 for PanthersModel and market agree here.play 180
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 9:55NYG +40% win prob(9:55) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy up the middle to NYG 24 for -2 yards (94-A.Robinson). FUMBLES (94-A.Robinson), touched at NYG 24, RECOVERED by CAR-47-J.Jewell at NYG 23.
4th · 8:08NYG +30% win prob(8:08) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 30-C.Hubbard to CAR 23 for 3 yards (22-A.Phillips) [93-R.Nunez-Roches]. FUMBLES (22-A.Phillips), RECOVERED by NYG-98-D.Davidson at CAR 22. CAR-30-C.Hubbard was injured during the play. Penalty on CAR-68-D.Lewis, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
4th · 6:02NYG +27% win prob(6:02) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left intended for 29-T.Tracy INTERCEPTED by 47-J.Jewell at CAR 9. 47-J.Jewell to CAR 9 for no gain (29-T.Tracy).
4th · 0:09CAR +16% win prob(:09) 9-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
2nd · 1:54NYG +16% win prob(1:54) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 84-T.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Woods (7-J.Clowney) at CAR 22. 25-X.Woods to CAR 26 for 4 yards (8-D.Jones).
3rd · 9:03CAR +12% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Eddy Pineiro's 36-yard field goal with 7:56 left in overtime put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:09Graham Gano·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+317–17
Overtime7:56Eddy Pineiro·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.JansenLead never changed again+317–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryPanthers
Giants4–5Panthers
343Total yards306
4.8Yards per play5.3
51%Success rate43%
47%Third-down rate40%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays7
23First downs14
2Sacks taken1
3Turnovers1
The read
Panthers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Giants: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.02Panthers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.24Giants: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.18Panthers: −0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Giants: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.13Panthers: +0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 71 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Panthers’s 58 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Giants 4, Panthers 3.
NoteGiants outgained Panthers 343-306 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's blitz rate sent, 10.7%, is past their previous low of 14.3% in week 4 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · −0.6 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Panthers12.5%
inside their normal wobble · +2.5 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteCAR's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 41.9%, 14.9 points below their season mean of 56.8% and 1.5 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
T.Tracy up−40% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(9:55) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy up the middle to NYG 24 for -2 yards (94-A.Robinson). FUMBLES (94-A.Robinson), touched at NYG 24, RECOVERED by CAR-47-J.Jewell at NYG 23.
OT 9:55 · Giants · 1st & 10 at NYG 26 · lost 2 · -5.30 EP · −39.8% win probability
170 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 180. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 96 yards from the NYG 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
47%
Yards
648
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.0144%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.2974%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.2319%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.0567%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 28 to the Panthers 34
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 17 to the Panthers 38
Giants0Panthers6
Giants0Panthers7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Giants 5
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Giants 49
The period ended11 plays, from the Panthers 9 to the Giants 30
2nd quarter44 plays
Giants0Panthers10
Field goal1 play
No good8 plays, from the Giants 40 to the Panthers 25
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 33 to the Panthers 34
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Giants 49
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Panthers 16
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Giants 36 to the Panthers 18
Punt10 plays, from the Panthers 26 to the Giants 47
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Giants6Panthers10
Giants7Panthers10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Giants 35 to the Panthers 32
Giants7Panthers16
Giants7Panthers17
Touchdown14 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Giants 1
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 26 to the Giants 31
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 47 to midfield
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter56 plays
Giants13Panthers17
Giants14Panthers17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Giants 5 to the Panthers 2
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Panthers 22 to the Panthers 6
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 9 to the Panthers 17
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 39 to the Giants 45
Punt10 plays, from the Panthers 19 to the Panthers 32
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown away.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Giants17Panthers17
Field goal15 plays, from the Giants 21 to the Panthers 24
The period ended2 plays
Overtime8 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
Giants17Panthers20
Field goal5 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Giants 18
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
