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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:43 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 10, 2024 · State Farm Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 10
It turned at Q1 14:00, 2nd and 3, on James Conner — 13.4 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:00 · 2nd and 3
James Conner
Cardinals
(14:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 6-J.Conner for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 6-J.Conner to NYJ 1 for 44 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
Arizona Cardinals 31–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:00, Cardinals +13.4% win probability on one snap.
13.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.72 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.29 expected points per dropback.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cardinals won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Jets at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cardinals won this one — +0.38 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.16 expected points per snap.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Cardinals won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Jets at 2 chunk plays.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(14:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 6-J.Conner for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 6-J.C
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
James Conner's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 13:01 left in the 1st put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jetscategory by categoryCardinals
Cardinals ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.72 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 55 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 56 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Jets 3, Cardinals 5.
Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.38 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's play-action rate, 13.2%, is past their previous low of 15.7% in week 4 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
ARI's play-action rate, 44.0%, sat 16.9 points above their season number of 27.1% — they faked the run by 2.2 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
NYJ's sack or hit rate turned over: 26.1% in week 9 against 8.0% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Jets2.1 ptsright on their number · −0.0 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 55 snaps
Cardinals-2.5 ptsright on their number · +0.2 vs their -2.7 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 28% to 86%
Tendencies room →Jets61.5%right on their number · +1.6 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 39 early downs
Cardinals45.8%inside their normal wobble · −10.9 vs their 56.7%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 47%
Tendencies room →Jets13.2%leaned — dropped back clean · −11.2 vs their 24.4%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.48× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Cardinals44.0%off script — faked the run · +16.9 vs their 27.1%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+2.23× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31% to 123%
Fourth Down room →Jets100.0%leaned — went for it · +44.1 vs their 55.9%, and they swing ±25.8 week to week (+1.71× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Cardinals—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 27.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 59%
Tendencies room →Jets36.0%inside their normal wobble · +7.6 vs their 28.4%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+0.85× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Cardinals18.4%inside their normal wobble · −8.0 vs their 26.5%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 36%
Tendencies room →Jets8.0%inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Cardinals13.2%right on their number · +1.2 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
ARI's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 44.0%, 16.9 points above their season mean of 27.1% and 2.2 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · ARI
22/24, 266 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
18.0 expected points added · +18.1% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
22/35, 151 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-10.9 expected points added · -2.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Kyler Murray banked 10.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler MurrayQB · Starter QB | 28.7 | +10.0 | 88% | — | 0% | — | 22/24, 266 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 21 yd, 2 TD |
| James ConnerRB · Committee Back | 22.3 | −0.3 | 54% | 68% | 21% | 0% | 12 car, 33 yd, 1 TD · 5/5, 80 yd |
| Marvin HarrisonWR · Featured Receiver | 16.4 | +6.7 | 73% | 96% | 21% | 32% | 5/5, 54 yd, 1 TD |
| Breece HallRB · Committee Back | 12.3 | +1.9 | 81% | 87% | 12% | 3% | 10 car, 52 yd · 4/4, 31 yd |
| Trey McBrideTE · Featured Receiver | 11.1 | −0.2 | 71% | 84% | 21% | 42% | 4/5, 71 yd |
| Trey BensonRB · Committee Back | 10.7 | +2.4 | 27% | 16% | 8% | 0% | 10 car, 62 yd · 2/2, 25 yd |
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.1 | −15.8 | 97% | 100% | 39% | 37% | 6/13, 31 yd |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Featured Receiver | 9.1 | −1.3 | 97% | 100% | 18% | 19% | 5/6, 41 yd |
| Michael WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | −1.1 | 66% | 80% | 17% | 38% | 3/4, 24 yd |
| Braelon AllenRB | 4.4 | −0.5 | 24% | 13% | 3% | 0% | 7 car, 27 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 4.0 | −14.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/35, 151 yd |
| Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +0.2 | 34% | 34% | 6% | 6% | 2/2, 17 yd |
| Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +0.1 | 49% | 28% | 8% | 12% | 2/2, 13 yd |
| Emari DemercadoRB | 2.2 | +0.8 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Isaiah DavisRB | 2.0 | +0.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −1.1 | 78% | 74% | 6% | 4% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| Kenny YeboahTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Malachi CorleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −2.5 | 28% | 32% | 6% | 5% | 1/2, 2 yd |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 1.0 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Greg DortchWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.9 | −0.5 | 25% | 40% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, -1 yd |
| Xavier GipsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.5 | 41% | 47% | 3% | 22% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Clayton TuneQB | -0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 6-J.Conner for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 6-J.Conner to NYJ 1 for 44 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
Q1 14:00 · Cardinals · 2nd & 3 at NYJ 45 · gained 44 · +3.26 EP · +11.8% win probability
136 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 146 plays across 13 drives, personnel groupings on 136 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 140. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 13 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 88 yards from the ARI 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
146 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
146 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Two in the backfield, a screen, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Jets0
Cardinals6Jets0Cardinals7Jets3Cardinals7Jets3Cardinals13Jets3Cardinals14Jets6Cardinals14Jets6Cardinals20Jets6Cardinals21Jets6Cardinals24Jets6Cardinals30Jets6Cardinals31Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jets at Cardinals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/35 | 151 | 0 | 0 | 3 | −10.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Braelon Allen | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 5 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 18% | +6.5 |
| Breece Hall | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 12% | +1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamien Sherwood | 7 | 10 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Adams | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Williams | 2 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Mills |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 22/24 | 266 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +18.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Benson |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_10_NYJ_ARI
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Jets closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 37 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
| Davante Adams | 6 | 13 | 31 | 0 | 39% | −6.9 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 6% | +0.8 |
| Isaiah Davis | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | −0.3 |
| Braelon Allen | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| Kenny Yeboah | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Malachi Corley | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6% | −2.2 |
| Xavier Gipson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.6 |
| 1 |
| 7 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Sam Eguavoen | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinnen Williams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Kinlaw | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Reed | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Oliver | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahmad Gardner | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 |
| 62 |
| 6.2 |
| 0 |
| +1.5 |
| James Conner | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 1 | −1.2 |
| Emari Demercado | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Kyler Murray | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 2 | +2.9 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Clayton Tune | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 5 | 5 | 80 | 0 | 21% | +5.5 |
| Trey McBride | 4 | 5 | 71 | 0 | 21% | +7.5 |
| Marvin Harrison | 5 | 5 | 54 | 1 | 21% | +3.7 |
| Trey Benson | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 8% | +2.0 |
| Michael Wilson | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 17% | +1.1 |
| Elijah Higgins | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 8% | +0.5 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budda Baker | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Garrett Williams | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Starling Thomas | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyzir White | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaven Collins | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Max Melton | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jesse Luketa | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Stills | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Murphy-Bunting | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
