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2024 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 10, 2024 · State Farm Stadium

New York Jets

6

Arizona CardinalsWinner

31

NYJ -2 upsetU 45.5 ✓Dome

Arizona Cardinals 31–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:00, ARI +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3ARI ↑NYJ ↓
Q1 · 14:00NYJ 0 — ARI 0ARI ball · 2nd & 3NYJ 51%

(14:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 6-J.Conner for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 6-J.C

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 14:00ARI +13% win prob(14:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 6-J.Conner for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 6-J.Conner to NYJ 1 for 44 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
  2. Q2 · 10:20ARI +7% win prob(10:20) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 85-T.McBride pushed ob at 50 for 17 yards (44-J.Sherwood) [99-W.McDonald].
  3. Q1 · 3:00ARI +6% win prob(3:00) 67-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 1-K.Murray left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYJ-54-J.Kinlaw, Defensive Offside, declined.
  4. Q2 · 11:41ARI +6% win prob(11:41) 40-S.Shrader 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 13:01ARI Touchdown

    (13:01) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 0 — ARI 7
  2. Q1 · 7:51NYJ Field goal

    (7:51) 40-S.Shrader 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: NYJ 3 — ARI 7
  3. Q1 · 3:00ARI Touchdown

    (3:00) 67-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 1-K.Murray left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYJ-54-J.Kinlaw, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 3 — ARI 14
  4. Q2 · 11:41NYJ Field goal

    (11:41) 40-S.Shrader 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: NYJ 6 — ARI 14
  5. Q2 · 5:48ARI Touchdown

    (5:48) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 18-M.Harrison for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 6 — ARI 21
  6. Q2 · 0:01ARI Field goal

    (:01) 38-C.Ryland 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    Score after this play: NYJ 6 — ARI 24
  7. Q3 · 4:19ARI Touchdown

    (4:19) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 6 — ARI 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJetsCardinals
Offensive plays5556
Total yards207407 (edge)
Yards per play3.87.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.160.38 (edge)
Success rate45%59% (edge)
Dropback rate69%45%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.290.72 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.13 (edge)0.10
Third downs6/135/7 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)28 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1526 (edge)
Sacks taken31 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.38 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

22/24, 266 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

18.0 expected points added · +18.1% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Aaron RodgersQB

22/35, 151 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-10.9 expected points added · -2.6% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

Trey BensonRB

10 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Breece HallRB

10 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

James ConnerRB

5/5 for 80 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Trey McBrideTE

4/5 for 71 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ARIARI 308702:02Touchdown +7
2NYJNYJ 3012515:10Field goal +3
3ARIARI 3011554:54Touchdown +7
4NYJNYJ 3013436:17Field goal +3
5ARIARI 3012705:53Touchdown +7
6NYJNYJ 305-91:35Punt
7ARIARI 3210444:09Field goal +3
8NYJNYJ 3011464:27Fumble
9ARIARI 12111036:20Touchdown +7
10NYJNYJ 30893:20Punt
11ARIARI 157334:45Punt
12NYJNYJ 2715676:29Turnover on downs
13ARIARI 117324:39End of game

7 of 13 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 103 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers22/35151003-10.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Breece Hall10525.201.5
Braelon Allen7273.900.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Garrett Wilson5641018%6.5
Breece Hall4431012%1.2
Davante Adams61331039%-6.9
Jeremy Ruckert221706%0.8
Isaiah Davis111003%0.8
Tyler Conklin12806%-0.3
Braelon Allen11703%0.4
Kenny Yeboah11403%-0.1
Malachi Corley12206%-2.2
Xavier Gipson01003%-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jamien Sherwood7100.000
Tony Adams550.000
Quincy Williams271.000
Jalen Mills170.000
Sam Eguavoen220.000
Quinnen Williams120.000
Javon Kinlaw120.000
D.J. Reed300.000
Isaiah Oliver210.000
Ahmad Gardner110.000

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kyler Murray22/2426610118.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Trey Benson10626.201.5
James Conner12332.81-1.2
Emari Demercado3227.301.5
Kyler Murray3217.022.9
DeeJay Dallas3103.30-1.7
Clayton Tune1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
James Conner5580021%5.5
Trey McBride4571021%7.5
Marvin Harrison5554121%3.7
Trey Benson222508%2.0
Michael Wilson3424017%1.1
Elijah Higgins221308%0.5
Greg Dortch11-104%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Budda Baker531.001
Garrett Williams610.000
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson510.002
Starling Thomas410.001
Kyzir White140.000
Zaven Collins300.000
Max Melton120.001
Jesse Luketa111.000
Dante Stills110.000
Sean Murphy-Bunting200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NYJ -2
Closing total
45.5
NYJ moneyline
-130
ARI moneyline
+110

Jets closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 37 — under by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
NYJ 10 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches
Robert Saleh vs Jonathan Gannon